Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 8, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UIW def. SFA 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: SFA 62.9% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 8, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UIW won at SFA 3-2 (23-25, 21-25, 25-22, 25-22, 15-10) on Thu, Oct 8, 2026. UIW's Lilly Roach led with 17 kills, and Ashton Rogers added 28 digs.

Data through · final Oct 8

Set12345Sets
INCWRD23212525153
SFA25252222102

Match story · written from the play-by-play

28 digs from Ashton Rogers kept UIW alive against SFA.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows UIW's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. SFA went in at 63% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · UIW 22–22 SFA

    SFA closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0.

    UIW 37% → 21%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · UIW 20–16 SFA

    Down 16–20, SFA scored 8 straight to lead 24–20.

    UIW 36% → 9%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 3 · UIW 16–20 SFA

    From here UIW won 9 of 11 rallies to take the set 25–22.

    UIW 2% → 19%

SFA above 50UIW belowMax swing 10.6%

UIWSFA

Sideout %
UIW 58.7·SFA 56.0
Break %
UIW 44.0·SFA 41.3
Hitting
UIW .195·SFA .196
Longest run
UIW 6·SFA 8

Alex Beauchamp
2 kills inside the turning points, 12 K and .137 for the match (12.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

SFA above 50 · UIW below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+10.6% INCWRDrally 213 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.6% to UIW — set 5, INCWRD 6-4 SFA. Kill by Kitana Tuufuli (set by Victoria Hall). SFA win probability 46% → 35%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

INCWRD 42.5%57.5% SFA

UIW wins

3-0
9.6%
3-1
15.6%
3-2
17.3%

SFA wins

3-0
15.9%
3-1
21.9%
3-2
19.7%
INCWRD break %
42.4% vs this opp
SFA break %
43.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kitana TuufuliKill+10.6%

    Kill by Kitana Tuufuli (set by Victoria Hall)

    Set 5 · INCWRD 6-4 SFA · INCWRD 54% → 65%

  2. 02
    Calissa AllisonKill+10.5%

    Kill by Calissa Allison (set by Victoria Hall)

    Set 5 · INCWRD 8-5 SFA · INCWRD 66% → 76%

  3. 03
    UIWAce+9.1%

    UIW ace on Kennedy Jones

    Set 5 · INCWRD 11-7 SFA · INCWRD 80% → 89%

  4. 04
    Avery KoonsenAttack error+9.0%

    Attack error by Avery Koonsen

    Set 5 · INCWRD 2-0 SFA · INCWRD 52% → 61%

  5. 05

    Kill by Caroline Kahle (set by Kyanna Creecy)

    Set 5 · INCWRD 2-2 SFA · SFA 45% → 54%

  6. 06
    Lilly RoachBad set+8.9%

    Bad set by Lilly Roach

    Set 1 · INCWRD 23-25 SFA · SFA 70% → 79%

  7. 07

    Kill by Vanessa Eregie (set by Calissa Allison)

    Set 5 · INCWRD 1-0 SFA · INCWRD 43% → 52%

  8. 08

    Kill by Calissa Allison (set by Victoria Hall)

    Set 5 · INCWRD 10-7 SFA · INCWRD 72% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UIWaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514638.2113120160010.516.5
513734.1761002402114
512551.13700052010.512.5
510527.1851006012212
52111.09102030031.55.5
5001.00020021300000
517535.34300050010.517.5
5001.000121800002
5002.0009032800000
5000–0001800000
Team totals6829200.195636610481106109
SFAhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515449.224542280031.520.5
517355.255213240010.518.5
57216.3131042008411
59331.19400020031.510.5
54219.105100301437
4003.0001620700002
57623.04300020052.59.5
5000–012310001
5001.0002300600000
5001.000102920000
2001.000500300000
2000–000100000
Team totals5920199.1965481390612413104

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 INCWRD · SFA 8

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 6 INCWRDSFA 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 6 INCWRDSFA 8

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 5 INCWRDSFA 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 INCWRDSFA 4

Set 5

15-10

Longest run 2 INCWRDSFA 2

Bars above the line = SFA leads, below = UIW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UIW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%13/24
52%12/23
2
57%12/21
43%9/21
3
92%11/12
42%8/19
4
41%9/22
44%8/18
5
57%8/14
36%5/14
6
73%8/11
43%6/14
All
59%61/104
44%48/109

SFA

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%13/27
33%5/15
2
46%11/24
54%15/28
3
92%11/12
21%3/14
4
50%9/18
33%5/15
5
64%9/14
53%10/19
6
57%8/14
38%5/13
All
56%61/109
41%43/104

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

213 rallies

#INCWRD-SFASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SFASFAKillJordan Hendersonset Madi Zorn+2.3
20-2SFASFAAceSFAaced Kitana Tuufuli+2.2
31-2SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+1.6
41-3INCWRDSFAKillMolly Cravensset Madi Zorn+1.7
52-3SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+1.7
62-4INCWRDSFAKillMolly Cravensset Madi Zorn+1.7
73-4SFAINCWRDAttack errKyanna Creecy+1.7
83-5INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+1.8
93-6SFASFAAttack errLilly Roach+2.2
104-6SFAINCWRDAttack errKatherine Holtman+1.6
115-6INCWRDINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Ashton Rogers+2.4
125-7INCWRDSFAServe errUIW+1.8
136-7SFAINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+1.8
146-8INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+1.9
157-8SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+1.9
168-8INCWRDINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+2.8
178-9INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+2.1
189-9SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+2.1
199-10INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Madi Zorn+2.1
2010-10SFAINCWRD×6KillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+2.2
2111-10INCWRDINCWRD×6AceUIW+3.1
2212-10INCWRDINCWRD×6KillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+3.2
2313-10INCWRDINCWRD×6AceUIW+3.1
2414-10INCWRDINCWRD×6KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+2.9
2515-10INCWRDINCWRD×6Attack errMolly Cravens+2.5
2615-11INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+1.4
2716-11SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+1.9
2816-12INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+1.4
2916-13SFASFAAttack errLilly Roach+2.4
3017-13SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+2.3
3117-14INCWRDSFAAttack errKitana Tuufuli+1.8
3217-15SFASFAAttack errKitana Tuufuli+3.0
3318-15SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+2.8
3418-16INCWRDSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Kennedy Jones+2.3
3519-16SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+2.9
3619-17INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Avery Koonsen+2.3
3720-17SFAINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+3.1
3820-18INCWRDSFA×5KillMolly Cravensset Madi Zorn+2.3
3920-19SFASFA×5Attack errVanessa Eregie+4.1
4020-20SFASFA×5KillAvery Koonsenset Isabella Ceja+5.0
4120-21SFASFA×5KillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+5.5
4220-22SFASFA×5AceSFA+5.2
4321-22SFAINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Ashton Rogers+3.1
4422-22INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+6.1
4522-23INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+5.5
4623-23SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+5.3
4723-24INCWRDSFABlockedKitana Tuufuliblk Molly Cravens, Kyanna Creecy+6.9
4823-25SFASFABad setLilly Roach+8.9
Set 2
10-1INCWRDSFA×4KillJordan Hendersonset Madi Zorn+1.5
20-2SFASFA×4Attack errLilly Roach+2.0
30-3SFASFA×4AceSFA+1.8
40-4SFASFA×4Attack errAlex Beauchamp+1.7
51-4SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Ashton Rogers+1.2
62-4INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+1.8
72-5INCWRDSFA×3KillMolly Cravensset Madi Zorn+1.4
82-6SFASFA×3Attack errVanessa Eregie+1.7
92-7SFASFA×3AceSFAaced Kitana Tuufuli+1.5
103-7SFAINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+1.0
113-8INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+1.1
124-8SFAINCWRD×3KillLilly Roachset Ashton Rogers+1.0
135-8INCWRDINCWRD×3KillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+1.6
146-8INCWRDINCWRD×3BlockedKatherine Holtmanblk Kitana Tuufuli, Sofia Grimm+1.9
156-9INCWRDSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.6
167-9SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Teddy-Raye Ewers+1.5
178-9INCWRDINCWRDAttack errKyanna Creecy+2.3
188-10INCWRDSFABlockedCalissa Allisonblk Caroline Kahle, Kyanna Creecy+1.8
198-11SFASFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+2.2
209-11SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+1.5
219-12INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+1.7
229-13SFASFAAceSFAaced Alex Beauchamp+2.0
2310-13SFAINCWRD×6KillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+1.3
2411-13INCWRDINCWRD×6KillLilly Roachset Ashton Rogers+2.1
2512-13INCWRDINCWRD×6KillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+2.5
2613-13INCWRDINCWRD×6AceUIWaced Kennedy Jones+2.9
2714-13INCWRDINCWRD×6KillLilly Roachset Madi Zorn+3.1
2815-13INCWRDINCWRD×6KillCalissa Allisonset Madi Zorn+3.2
2915-14INCWRDSFAKillMolly Cravensset Madi Zorn+2.2
3016-14SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+2.5
3117-14INCWRDINCWRDBlockedMolly Cravensblk Kitana Tuufuli, Vanessa Eregie+3.2
3217-15INCWRDSFAServe errUIW+2.0
3318-15SFAINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+2.5
3418-16INCWRDSFAServe errUIW+2.0
3519-16SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allison+2.6
3620-16INCWRDINCWRDAttack errKatherine Holtman+2.9
3720-17INCWRDSFA×8KillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+1.5
3820-18SFASFA×8KillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+2.8
3920-19SFASFA×8BlockedKitana Tuufuliblk Kyanna Creecy, Katherine Holtman+3.7
4020-20SFASFA×8BlockedKitana Tuufuliblk Kyanna Creecy, Katherine Holtman+4.5
4120-21SFASFA×8BlockedSofia Grimmblk Caroline Kahle, Kyanna Creecy+4.9
4220-22SFASFA×8AceSFAaced Kitana Tuufuli+4.6
4320-23SFASFA×8Attack errCalissa Allison+3.5
4420-24SFASFA×8Attack errCalissa Allison+1.9
4521-24SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+0.4
4621-25INCWRDSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.0
Set 3
10-1SFASFAKillCaroline Kahle+1.2
21-1SFAINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+0.9
31-2INCWRDSFA×3BlockedAlex Beauchampblk Jordan Henderson, Molly Cravens+0.9
41-3SFASFA×3BlockedVanessa Eregieblk Jordan Henderson+1.2
51-4SFASFA×3AceSFAaced Alex Beauchamp+1.1
62-4SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+0.8
72-5INCWRDSFAKillMolly Cravensset Madi Zorn+0.8
83-5SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+0.8
94-5INCWRDINCWRDBlockedAvery Koonsenblk Lilly Roach, Sofia Grimm+1.2
104-6INCWRDSFA×3KillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+0.9
114-7SFASFA×3KillKyanna Creecyset Caroline Kahle+1.2
124-8SFASFA×3KillKatherine Holtmanset Avery Koonsen+1.0
135-8SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.7
146-8INCWRDINCWRDBad setAniston Collins+1.1
156-9INCWRDSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+0.9
166-10SFASFABlockedKitana Tuufuliblk Kyanna Creecy, Katherine Holtman+1.1
177-10SFAINCWRD×3Attack errKatherine Holtman+0.7
188-10INCWRDINCWRD×3KillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+1.2
199-10INCWRDINCWRD×3KillAlex Beauchampset Ashton Rogers+1.3
209-11INCWRDSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.1
2110-11SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+1.0
2210-12INCWRDSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+1.1
2311-12SFAINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Vanessa Eregie+1.1
2411-13INCWRDSFABlockedVanessa Eregieblk Jordan Henderson, Molly Cravens+1.1
2511-14SFASFAAttack errLilly Roach+1.4
2612-14SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Ashton Rogers+0.9
2713-14INCWRDINCWRDBlockedJordan Hendersonblk Vanessa Eregie+1.5
2813-15INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+1.2
2913-16SFASFAKillAvery Koonsenset Calissa Allison+1.5
3014-16SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+1.0
3114-17INCWRDSFAKillMolly Cravensset Kyanna Creecy+1.2
3215-17SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+1.0
3315-18INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+1.2
3416-18SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+1.0
3516-19INCWRDSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.3
3616-20SFASFAAttack errCalissa Allison+1.3
3717-20SFAINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Victoria Hall+0.7
3818-20INCWRDINCWRDAceUIW+1.4
3918-21INCWRDSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.4
4019-21SFAINCWRD×5KillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+1.0
4120-21INCWRDINCWRD×5Attack errMolly Cravens+2.0
4221-21INCWRDINCWRD×5Attack errJordan Henderson+2.8
4322-21INCWRDINCWRD×5BlockedCaroline Kahleblk Vanessa Eregie, Alex Beauchamp+3.4
4423-21INCWRDINCWRD×5KillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+3.4
4523-22INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Madi Zorn+1.8
4624-22SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+3.0
4725-22INCWRDINCWRDAttack errAvery Koonsen+2.4
Set 4
11-0INCWRDINCWRDAttack errKatherine Holtman+3.0
21-1INCWRDSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+2.1
32-1SFAINCWRD×3KillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+2.3
43-1INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errKatherine Holtman+3.1
54-1INCWRDINCWRD×3KillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+3.1
64-2INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+2.1
75-2SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+2.4
85-3INCWRDSFABlockedKitana Tuufuliblk Jordan Henderson, Katherine Holtman+2.1
96-3SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+2.4
107-3INCWRDINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Ashton Rogers+3.1
117-4INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Izzy Orton+2.0
128-4SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+2.4
139-4INCWRDINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+2.9
149-5INCWRDSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Izzy Orton+1.8
1510-5SFAINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+2.2
1611-5INCWRDINCWRDBad setIzzy Orton+2.5
1711-6INCWRDSFAKillMolly Cravensset Caroline Kahle+1.5
1812-6SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+1.9
1913-6INCWRDINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+2.0
2013-7INCWRDSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+1.1
2113-8SFASFAAttack errVanessa Eregie+1.9
2214-8SFAINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+1.9
2315-8INCWRDINCWRDAttack errCaroline Kahle+2.0
2415-9INCWRDSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+1.0
2516-9SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+1.4
2616-10INCWRDSFAServe errUIW+0.9
2717-10SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Ashton Rogers+1.4
2818-10INCWRDINCWRDAttack errCaroline Kahle+1.2
2918-11INCWRDSFABlockedCalissa Allisonblk Caroline Kahle, Jordan Henderson+0.5
3018-12SFASFAAceSFAaced Kitana Tuufuli+1.0
3119-12SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+1.2
3219-13INCWRDSFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+0.7
3319-14SFASFA×4KillMolly Cravensset Izzy Orton+1.4
3419-15SFASFA×4Bad setVictoria Hall+2.0
3519-16SFASFA×4BlockedCalissa Allisonblk Avery Koonsen, Kyanna Creecy+2.9
3620-16SFAINCWRD×4Serve errSFA+3.0
3721-16INCWRDINCWRD×4KillAlex Beauchampset Victoria Hall+2.9
3822-16INCWRDINCWRD×4AceUIWaced Cambry Saul+1.7
3923-16INCWRDINCWRD×4KillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+0.8
4023-17INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+0.2
4123-18SFASFABlockedAlex Beauchampblk Kyanna Creecy, Katherine Holtman+0.5
4224-18SFAINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+0.7
4324-19INCWRDSFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+0.1
4424-20SFASFA×4Attack errAlex Beauchamp+0.5
4524-21SFASFA×4KillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+1.0
4624-22SFASFA×4Attack errLilly Roach+2.4
4725-22SFAINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+3.1
Set 5
11-0INCWRDINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+8.7
22-0INCWRDINCWRDAttack errAvery Koonsen+9.0
32-1INCWRDSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+6.2
42-2SFASFAKillCaroline Kahleset Kyanna Creecy+8.9
53-2SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+7.1
63-3INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+6.8
74-3SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+7.4
84-4INCWRDSFAServe errUIW+7.1
95-4SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+7.7
106-4INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+10.6
116-5INCWRDSFAServe errUIW+7.1
127-5SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Kitana Tuufuli+8.3
138-5INCWRDINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+10.5
148-6INCWRDSFAAttack errAlex Beauchamp+6.3
159-6SFAINCWRDServe errSFA+8.2
169-7INCWRDSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Izzy Orton+6.4
1710-7SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+8.6
1811-7INCWRDINCWRDAceUIWaced Kennedy Jones+9.1
1911-8INCWRDSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+4.3
2012-8SFAINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+6.8
2112-9INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+3.8
2213-9SFAINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+6.5
2313-10INCWRDSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Jordan Henderson+3.0
2414-10SFAINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Calissa Allison+5.8
2515-10INCWRDINCWRDBlockedCaroline Kahleblk Calissa Allison, Sofia Grimm+2.4

Score shown after each rally, UIW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).