Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UTRGV def. SFA 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: SFA 53.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 6:26 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UTRGV beat visiting SFA 3-1 (25-17, 17-25, 25-17, 25-22) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. UTRGV's Julianna Bryant and Aaliyah Snead led with 13 kills each, and Celianiz Cabranes added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set1234Sets
SFA172517221
UTRGV251725253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

12 blocks, led by Julianna Bryant: UTRGV won it at the net.

The match turned twice; each line shows UTRGV's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had SFA at 53% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · SFA 15–13 UTRGV

    UTRGV scored 5 straight to turn a 13–15 deficit into an 18–15 lead. The match swung to UTRGV.

    UTRGV 38% → 63%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · SFA 18–17 UTRGV

    Down 17–18, UTRGV scored 3 straight to lead 20–18.

    UTRGV 68% → 87%

UTRGV above 50SFA belowMax swing 7.5%

SFAUTRGV

Sideout %
SFA 51.6·UTRGV 58.5
Break %
SFA 41.5·UTRGV 48.4
Hitting
SFA .120·UTRGV .164
Longest run
SFA 4·UTRGV 5
Blocks
SFA 9·UTRGV 124 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 20 BA

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UTRGV above 50 · SFA below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.5% UTRGVrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.5% to UTRGV — set 4, SFA 22-24 UTRGV. Kill by Aaliyah Snead (set by Lana Rnjak). UTRGV win probability 87% → 94%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SFA 58.1%41.9% UTRGV

SFA wins

3-0
16.2%
3-1
22.1%
3-2
19.8%

UTRGV wins

3-0
9.4%
3-1
15.4%
3-2
17.1%
SFA break %
42.3% vs this opp
UTRGV break %
40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Aaliyah SneadKill+7.5%

    Kill by Aaliyah Snead (set by Lana Rnjak)

    Set 4 · SFA 22-24 UTRGV · UTRGV 87% → 94%

  2. 02
    Katherine HoltmanAttack error+6.9%

    Attack error by Katherine Holtman

    Set 4 · SFA 18-19 UTRGV · UTRGV 73% → 80%

  3. 03
    Aaliyah SneadKill+6.8%

    Kill by Aaliyah Snead (set by Lana Rnjak)

    Set 4 · SFA 18-20 UTRGV · UTRGV 80% → 87%

  4. 04
    Lara GilardiKill+6.4%

    Kill by Lara Gilardi (set by Caroline Kahle)

    Set 4 · SFA 22-23 UTRGV · SFA 7% → 13%

  5. 05

    Kill by Martina Franco (set by Lana Rnjak)

    Set 4 · SFA 20-23 UTRGV · UTRGV 89% → 95%

  6. 06

    Julianna Bryant stuffed by Jordan Henderson & Caroline Kahle

    Set 4 · SFA 18-17 UTRGV · SFA 25% → 32%

  7. 07

    Caroline Kahle stuffed by Julianna Bryant & Lana Rnjak

    Set 4 · SFA 16-17 UTRGV · UTRGV 73% → 79%

  8. 08

    Kill by Martina Franco

    Set 4 · SFA 22-25 UTRGV · UTRGV 94% → 100%

Box score

Official NCAA box

SFAaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413841.122113131111.515.5
49735.057314160111.511.5
49527.1481002002110
45014.357000102449
4528.37500220010.55.5
4000–1811300001
4000–211930001
4002.0001701500000
33312.00000010010.53.5
2000–000000000
1023-.667000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals4427142.12042412534410981
UTRGVhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413428.32100000195.518.5
413321.4760000002114
411944.04510111112213
4409.444402360052.58.5
46623.00000020010.56.5
42415-.13300030010.52.5
4000–2121810001
12Isa BentoL/DS
4000–110300001
4000–1001410000
4000–000510000
Team totals4926140.16445466242201292

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SFA · UTRGV 5

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 SFAUTRGV 5

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 4 SFAUTRGV 2

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 SFAUTRGV 5

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 2 SFAUTRGV 3

Bars above the line = UTRGV leads, below = SFA leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

SFA

SlotSideout %Break %
1
70%7/10
40%4/10
2
46%6/13
68%13/19
3
50%6/12
25%2/8
4
35%6/17
25%2/8
5
50%4/8
33%3/9
6
67%4/6
33%2/6
All
50%33/66
43%26/60

UTRGV

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%6/14
29%2/7
2
46%6/13
25%2/8
3
60%6/10
54%7/13
4
75%6/8
57%8/14
5
86%6/7
63%10/16
6
50%4/8
50%4/8
All
57%34/60
50%33/66

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#SFA-UTRGVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SFASFAAttack errMartina Franco+2.5
21-1SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+1.8
32-1UTRGVSFA×3Attack errJasmyn Walker+1.8
43-1SFASFA×3Attack errJasmyn Walker+2.6
54-1SFASFA×3KillCaroline Kahleset Katherine Holtman+2.4
64-2SFAUTRGV×4KillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+1.6
74-3UTRGVUTRGV×4AceCelianiz Cabranesaced Avery Koonsen+2.5
84-4UTRGVUTRGV×4Attack errKatherine Holtman+2.7
94-5UTRGVUTRGV×4BlockedCaroline Kahleblk Jasmyn Walker, Julianna Bryant+2.8
105-5UTRGVSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+2.0
115-6SFAUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.0
126-6UTRGVSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+2.0
136-7SFAUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.1
146-8UTRGVUTRGVAttack errCaroline Kahle+2.9
157-8UTRGVSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Madi Zorn+2.0
167-9SFAUTRGVServe errCaroline Kahle+2.1
177-10UTRGVUTRGVKillLana Rnjakset Isa Bento+2.9
188-10UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Caroline Kahle+1.9
198-11SFAUTRGVServe errKyanna Creecy+2.1
209-11UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+1.9
219-12SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+2.2
2210-12UTRGVSFA×4KillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+1.9
2311-12SFASFA×4Attack errAaliyah Snead+3.1
2412-12SFASFA×4Attack errMartina Franco+3.4
2513-12SFASFA×4Attack errMartina Franco+3.6
2613-13SFAUTRGV×5Serve errAvery Koonsen+2.5
2713-14UTRGVUTRGV×5KillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+3.7
2813-15UTRGVUTRGV×5KillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+3.7
2913-16UTRGVUTRGV×5KillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+3.5
3013-17UTRGVUTRGV×5KillJasmyn Walkerset Lana Rnjak+3.0
3114-17UTRGVSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.6
3214-18SFAUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.1
3314-19UTRGVUTRGVBlockedCaroline Kahleblk Lana Rnjak, Julianna Bryant+2.3
3415-19UTRGVSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+1.1
3515-20SFAUTRGV×5Serve errMadi Zorn+1.6
3615-21UTRGVUTRGV×5KillSoukeyna Dioufset Lana Rnjak+1.4
3715-22UTRGVUTRGV×5Attack errCaroline Kahle+0.7
3815-23UTRGVUTRGV×5Attack errMolly Cravens+0.3
3915-24UTRGVUTRGV×5BlockedMolly Cravensblk Julianna Bryant, Soukeyna Diouf+0.1
4016-24UTRGVSFAAttack errJulianna Bryant·
4117-24SFASFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn·
4217-25SFAUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak·
Set 2
11-0UTRGVSFA×3KillCaroline Kahleset Madi Zorn+1.8
22-0SFASFA×3KillLara Gilardiset Caroline Kahle+2.6
33-0SFASFA×3Bad setLana Rnjak+2.5
43-1SFAUTRGVKillJasmyn Walkerset Celianiz Cabranes+1.6
54-1UTRGVSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Madi Zorn+1.8
64-2SFAUTRGVKillJasmyn Walkerset Lana Rnjak+1.7
75-2UTRGVSFAServe errCelianiz Cabranes+1.8
86-2SFASFABlockedMartina Francoblk Kyanna Creecy, Katherine Holtman+2.4
96-3SFAUTRGVKillJasmyn Walkerset Lana Rnjak+1.5
106-4UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Franco+2.4
117-4UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+1.9
128-4SFASFAAceAvery Koonsenaced Carmina Tijerina+2.5
138-5SFAUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+1.5
148-6UTRGVUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+2.5
159-6UTRGVSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+2.0
169-7SFAUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+1.8
1710-7UTRGVSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+2.0
1810-8SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+1.9
1910-9UTRGVUTRGVKillSoukeyna Dioufset Lana Rnjak+3.0
2011-9UTRGVSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Madi Zorn+2.3
2112-9SFASFAAttack errJasmyn Walker+3.0
2212-10SFAUTRGVServe errCaroline Kahle+1.9
2313-10UTRGVSFAAttack errMartina Franco+2.2
2413-11SFAUTRGVKillJasmyn Walkerset Lana Rnjak+2.0
2514-11UTRGVSFAServe errCelianiz Cabranes+2.3
2615-11SFASFAAceAniston Collinsaced Celianiz Cabranes+2.8
2715-12SFAUTRGVBlockedKatherine Holtmanblk Julianna Bryant, Martina Franco+1.6
2815-13UTRGVUTRGVBlockedKatherine Holtmanblk Martina Franco+2.9
2916-13UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+2.4
3017-13SFASFABlockedJulianna Bryantblk Caroline Kahle+2.9
3117-14SFAUTRGVServe errAvery Koonsen+1.6
3218-14UTRGVSFAAttack errMartina Franco+2.1
3318-15SFAUTRGVServe errKyanna Creecy+1.6
3418-16UTRGVUTRGVAttack errCaroline Kahle+3.0
3519-16UTRGVSFA×3KillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+2.7
3620-16SFASFA×3Attack errSoukeyna Diouf+3.0
3721-16SFASFA×3Attack errSoukeyna Diouf+2.1
3821-17SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+0.8
3922-17UTRGVSFA×4Serve errLana Rnjak+1.3
4023-17SFASFA×4BlockedJasmyn Walkerblk Avery Koonsen+0.9
4124-17SFASFA×4BlockedMartina Francoblk Jordan Henderson+0.3
4225-17SFASFA×4Attack errSoukeyna Diouf·
Set 3
10-1SFAUTRGVAttack errLara Gilardi+2.4
20-2UTRGVUTRGVAttack errCaroline Kahle+3.4
31-2UTRGVSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Madi Zorn+2.3
42-2SFASFABlockedJasmyn Walkerblk Jordan Henderson, Avery Koonsen+3.5
52-3SFAUTRGVServe errCaroline Kahle+2.5
63-3UTRGVSFA×3BlockedMartina Francoblk Lara Gilardi, Jordan Henderson+2.5
74-3SFASFA×3AceCambry Saulaced Dunja Stankovic+3.6
85-3SFASFA×3Attack errMartina Franco+3.6
95-4SFAUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.4
105-5UTRGVUTRGVBlockedAvery Koonsenblk Julianna Bryant, Lana Rnjak+3.7
116-5UTRGVSFAKillLara Gilardiset Madi Zorn+2.7
126-6SFAUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+2.7
137-6UTRGVSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+2.7
147-7SFAUTRGVKillLana Rnjakset Celianiz Cabranes+2.7
157-8UTRGVUTRGVAceIsa Bentoaced Cambry Saul+4.0
168-8UTRGVSFA×3KillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+2.8
179-8SFASFA×3KillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+4.1
1810-8SFASFA×3BlockedSoukeyna Dioufblk Jordan Henderson, Katherine Holtman+4.1
1910-9SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+2.7
2010-10UTRGVUTRGVAceLana Rnjakaced Cambry Saul+4.2
2111-10UTRGVSFAServe errLana Rnjak+3.1
2212-10SFASFAKillCaroline Kahleset Cambry Saul+4.3
2312-11SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+2.9
2412-12UTRGVUTRGVAttack errLara Gilardi+4.5
2513-12UTRGVSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Madi Zorn+3.3
2614-12SFASFABlockedAaliyah Sneadblk Jordan Henderson+4.7
2714-13SFAUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+3.1
2815-13UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+3.4
2915-14SFAUTRGV×5Serve errCambry Saul+3.2
3015-15UTRGVUTRGV×5BlockedAvery Koonsenblk Julianna Bryant+5.1
3115-16UTRGVUTRGV×5KillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+5.5
3215-17UTRGVUTRGV×5BlockedAvery Koonsenblk Julianna Bryant, Lana Rnjak+5.5
3315-18UTRGVUTRGV×5Attack errAvery Koonsen+5.0
3416-18UTRGVSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Madi Zorn+2.9
3516-19SFAUTRGV×5Serve errAniston Collins+3.7
3616-20UTRGVUTRGV×5BlockedAvery Koonsenblk Julianna Bryant+4.2
3716-21UTRGVUTRGV×5KillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+2.8
3816-22UTRGVUTRGV×5Attack errKyanna Creecy+1.6
3916-23UTRGVUTRGV×5Attack errAvery Koonsen+0.7
4017-23UTRGVSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+0.1
4117-24SFAUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+0.3
4217-25UTRGVUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+0.1
Set 4
10-1UTRGVUTRGVAceLana Rnjakaced Cambry Saul+3.5
21-1UTRGVSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Madi Zorn+2.5
32-1SFASFAAceCaroline Kahleaced Martina Franco+3.5
42-2SFAUTRGVServe errCaroline Kahle+2.5
52-3UTRGVUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+3.7
63-3UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+2.6
74-3SFA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.7
84-4SFAUTRGVAttack errAvery Koonsen+2.6
94-5UTRGVUTRGVAttack errAvery Koonsen+3.8
105-5UTRGVSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Madi Zorn+2.7
116-5SFASFAAttack errJulianna Bryant+3.9
126-6SFAUTRGVAttack errKyanna Creecy+2.7
136-7UTRGVUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+4.0
147-7UTRGVSFAKillKyanna Creecyset Aniston Collins+2.8
158-7SFASFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Cambry Saul+4.1
168-8SFAUTRGVServe errAvery Koonsen+2.9
179-8UTRGVSFAKillCaroline Kahleset Aniston Collins+3.0
1810-8SFASFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Avery Koonsen+4.2
1910-9SFAUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+2.8
2010-10UTRGVUTRGVAttack errKatherine Holtman+4.3
2111-10UTRGVSFAKillJordan Hendersonset Aniston Collins+3.2
2212-10SFASFAAttack errAaliyah Snead+4.5
2312-11SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+3.0
2413-11UTRGVSFAAttack errJasmyn Walker+3.3
2513-12SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+3.1
2613-13UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+4.8
2714-13UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+3.6
2814-14SFAUTRGVBlockedLara Gilardiblk Martina Franco, Aaliyah Snead+3.6
2915-14UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+3.8
3015-15SFAUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+3.7
3116-15UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Aniston Collins+3.9
3216-16SFAUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+3.9
3316-17UTRGVUTRGVBlockedCaroline Kahleblk Julianna Bryant, Lana Rnjak+6.0
3417-17UTRGVSFAServe errMartina Franco+4.2
3518-17SFASFABlockedJulianna Bryantblk Jordan Henderson, Caroline Kahle+6.3
3618-18SFAUTRGV×3KillLana Rnjak+4.4
3718-19UTRGVUTRGV×3Attack errKatherine Holtman+6.9
3818-20UTRGVUTRGV×3KillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+6.8
3919-20UTRGVSFAKillKatherine Holtmanset Aniston Collins+4.1
4019-21SFAUTRGVKillLana Rnjakset Martina Franco+5.2
4120-21UTRGVSFAServe errLana Rnjak+4.3
4220-22SFAUTRGVKillJasmyn Walkerset Lana Rnjak+5.7
4320-23UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+6.4
4421-23UTRGVSFAKillAvery Koonsenset Madi Zorn+2.5
4522-23SFASFAKillLara Gilardiset Caroline Kahle+6.4
4622-24SFAUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+7.5
4722-25UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Franco+5.9

Score shown after each rally, SFA first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).