Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayHORIZON

1:3

HomePATRIOT

American def. Northern Ky. 3–1

(25-21, 25-21, 23-25, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
N KY	21	21	25	19	1
AMER	25	25	23	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AMER above 50 · N KY below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Northern Ky. — set 3, N KY 25-23 AMER. Kill by Emma Adkins (set by Abbigail Pickard). AMER win probability 86% → 82%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

N KY 35.0%65.0% AMER

Northern Ky. wins

3-0

7.2%

3-1

12.6%

3-2

15.3%

American wins

3-0

20.0%

3-1

24.9%

3-2

20.0%

N KY break %: 44.0% vs this opp
AMER break %: 47.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emma AdkinsKill+4.3%
Kill by Emma Adkins (set by Abbigail Pickard)
Set 3 · N KY 25-23 AMER · N KY 14% → 18%
02
AMER serverAce+3.5%
American ace on Team
Set 4 · N KY 14-17 AMER · AMER 88% → 92%
03
N KY serverAce+3.4%
Northern Ky. ace on Alex Ioannou
Set 4 · N KY 13-14 AMER · N KY 12% → 15%
04
Carly SciborskiKill+3.3%
Kill by Carly Sciborski (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 4 · N KY 17-20 AMER · AMER 90% → 93%
05
Sydney BrayAttack error+3.3%
Sydney Bray stuffed by Prinzez Zeck & Salme Hollas
Set 4 · N KY 9-10 AMER · AMER 81% → 84%
06
Sam McMillanAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Sam McMillan
Set 4 · N KY 8-7 AMER · N KY 18% → 22%
07
Bella MarreroKill+3.2%
Kill by Bella Marrero (set by Olivia Miller)
Set 4 · N KY 14-16 AMER · AMER 85% → 88%
08
Sam McMillanKill+3.2%
Kill by Sam McMillan (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 1 · N KY 20-23 AMER · AMER 74% → 77%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northern Ky.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Ava HoyingOH	4	9	4	36	.139	0	3	1	8	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
12Ivey StocksMB	4	9	5	21	.190	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	10
11Sydney BrayOH	4	1	8	24	-.292	0	2	0	10	0	0	2	1	4
15Abbigail PickardS	4	3	1	14	.143	28	1	2	9	0	0	0	0	4
4Katie NoschangOH	3	2	3	9	-.111	0	0	2	2	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
8Allison RisleyOH	3	0	0	4	.000	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
20Lucia HeidOH	4	5	5	22	.000	0	1	2	4	0	2	0	2	8
9Emma AdkinsDS	4	4	3	9	.111	3	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
13Daisy CluxtonL/DS	4	0	0	3	.000	1	1	0	10	3	0	0	0	1
16Ashley SessMB	2	5	1	8	.500	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
10Emory GuderianL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0
6Emily ErwinOPP	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		38	30	151	.053	32	10	9	55	10	3	8	7	86

Americanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Salme HollasOH	4	13	9	41	.098	0	3	1	4	2	0	4	2	18
14Elise SterlingMB	4	12	1	21	.524	0	1	2	2	0	0	4	2	15
23Carly SciborskiOPP	4	9	2	17	.412	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
20Prinzez ZeckMB	4	5	4	16	.063	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	4	9
15Sam McMillanOH	4	5	5	31	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
5Deniz DakakS	4	3	4	13	-.077	42	0	2	14	0	0	2	1	4
3Bella MarreroL/DS	4	1	0	3	.333	3	2	2	20	0	0	0	0	3
10Alex IoannouL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	0	3	3	6	1	0	0	0	3
19Olivia MillerDS	4	0	0	2	.000	2	1	1	8	3	0	0	0	1
Team totals		48	25	145	.159	47	10	11	58	10	1	20	11	98

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 N KY · AMER 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 N KYAMER 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 5 N KYAMER 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 6 N KYAMER 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 N KYAMER 5

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Northern Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northern Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%9/20	50%7/14
2	53%9/17	18%2/11
3	50%8/16	55%11/20
4	53%8/15	27%3/11
5	40%8/20	58%11/19
6	56%5/9	42%5/12
All	48%47/97	45%39/87

American

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	56%9/16
2	56%9/16	53%10/19
3	62%8/13	50%8/16
4	38%8/21	43%6/14
5	88%7/8	50%8/16
6	44%7/16	56%9/16
All	55%48/87	52%50/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

184 rallies

Rally log

#	N KY-AMER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+1.9
2	1-1	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Sydney Bray		+1.8
3	1-2	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Ava Hoying	+2.2
4	2-2	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.9
5	2-3	N KY	AMER×3	Attack err	Sydney Bray		+1.8
6	2-4	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.1
7	2-5	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Sydney Bray	blk Elise Sterling, Salme Hollas	+2.0
8	3-5	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Carly Sciborski		+1.6
9	3-6	N KY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
10	4-6	AMER	N KY×4	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+1.6
11	5-6	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.2
12	6-6	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+2.4
13	7-6	N KY	N KY×4	Ace	N KY server	aced Olivia Miller	+2.6
14	7-7	N KY	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Bella Marrero	+2.1
15	8-7	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.2
16	8-8	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Abbigail Pickard		+2.2
17	8-9	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+2.6
18	9-9	AMER	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.2
19	9-10	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Katie Noschang		+2.2
20	10-10	AMER	N KY	Serve err	AMER server		+2.3
21	10-11	N KY	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
22	10-12	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Sydney Bray		+2.7
23	11-12	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Carly Sciborski	blk Katie Noschang, Ava Hoying	+2.2
24	12-12	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+2.9
25	12-13	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Ivey Stocks		+2.5
26	13-13	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.6
27	13-14	N KY	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.6
28	13-15	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+3.0
29	13-16	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.7
30	13-17	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
31	14-17	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
32	15-17	N KY	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.5
33	15-18	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.5
34	15-19	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
35	15-20	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Lucia Heid		+1.8
36	16-20	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Deniz Dakak	blk Lucia Heid	+1.0
37	16-21	N KY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
38	17-21	AMER	N KY×3	Serve err	AMER server		+0.9
39	18-21	N KY	N KY×3	Kill	Emma Adkins	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.7
40	19-21	N KY	N KY×3	Ace	N KY server	aced Olivia Miller	+2.6
41	19-22	N KY	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+3.0
42	20-22	AMER	N KY	Kill	Sydney Bray	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.2
43	20-23	N KY	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+3.2
44	20-24	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Ava Hoying		+2.2
45	21-24	AMER	N KY	Kill	Katie Noschang	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.6
46	21-25	N KY	AMER	Serve err	N KY server		+1.4
Set 2
1	0-1	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Ivey Stocks	blk Prinzez Zeck, Salme Hollas	+1.5
2	1-1	AMER	N KY	Serve err	AMER server		+1.6
3	1-2	N KY	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
4	2-2	AMER	N KY×4	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
5	3-2	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.0
6	4-2	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Deniz Dakak		+2.1
7	5-2	N KY	N KY×4	Ace	N KY server	aced Team	+2.1
8	5-3	N KY	AMER×3	Serve err	N KY server		+1.6
9	5-4	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
10	5-5	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.1
11	6-5	AMER	N KY	Serve err	AMER server		+1.8
12	6-6	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.8
13	6-7	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Daisy Cluxton	+2.1
14	6-8	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Daisy Cluxton	+2.1
15	7-8	AMER	N KY	Kill	Katie Noschang	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.7
16	8-8	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Deniz Dakak	blk Lucia Heid	+2.2
17	8-9	N KY	AMER×3	Attack err	Sydney Bray		+1.9
18	8-10	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Sydney Bray	blk Prinzez Zeck, Sam McMillan	+2.2
19	8-11	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Olivia Miller	+2.0
20	9-11	AMER	N KY	Serve err	AMER server		+1.6
21	9-12	N KY	AMER	Serve err	N KY server		+1.7
22	10-12	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+1.6
23	10-13	N KY	AMER	Serve err	N KY server		+1.8
24	10-14	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Ava Hoying	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+1.9
25	11-14	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.4
26	11-15	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
27	11-16	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Bella Marrero	+1.6
28	11-17	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
29	12-17	AMER	N KY×3	Bad set	Deniz Dakak		+0.7
30	13-17	N KY	N KY×3	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Daisy Cluxton	+1.2
31	14-17	N KY	N KY×3	Ace	N KY server	aced Team	+1.7
32	14-18	N KY	AMER	Bad set	Abbigail Pickard		+1.7
33	14-19	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Lucia Heid	blk Elise Sterling, Deniz Dakak	+1.6
34	15-19	AMER	N KY	Kill	Abbigail Pickard	set Emma Adkins	+0.9
35	15-20	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.3
36	15-21	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Katie Noschang		+1.0
37	15-22	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
38	16-22	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+0.2
39	16-23	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Emma Adkins		+0.3
40	16-24	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Emma Adkins		+0.1
41	17-24	AMER	N KY×5	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Katie Noschang, Emily Erwin	+0.0
42	18-24	N KY	N KY×5	Ace	N KY server	aced Salme Hollas	+0.1
43	19-24	N KY	N KY×5	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+0.1
44	20-24	N KY	N KY×5	Ace	N KY server	aced Olivia Miller	+0.3
45	21-24	N KY	N KY×5	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.7
46	21-25	N KY	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.2
Set 3
1	0-1	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.1
2	0-2	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
3	0-3	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Katie Noschang		+1.0
4	0-4	AMER	AMER×4	Kill	Prinzez Zeck		+0.9
5	1-4	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Katie Noschang, Sydney Bray	+0.7
6	1-5	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Ava Hoying	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+0.7
7	1-6	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.8
8	2-6	AMER	N KY×4	Serve err	AMER server		+0.6
9	3-6	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Ivey Stocks		+0.8
10	4-6	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.0
11	5-6	N KY	N KY×4	Ace	N KY server	aced Team	+1.1
12	5-7	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
13	5-8	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Emory Guderian	+1.1
14	5-9	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Ava Hoying	blk Deniz Dakak, Elise Sterling	+1.0
15	6-9	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.7
16	6-10	N KY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.8
17	7-10	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.8
18	8-10	N KY	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.1
19	8-11	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Lucia Heid		+1.0
20	9-11	AMER	N KY	Kill	Emma Adkins	set Abbigail Pickard	+0.9
21	9-12	N KY	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.0
22	10-12	AMER	N KY×3	Serve err	AMER server		+0.9
23	11-12	N KY	N KY×3	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Daisy Cluxton	+1.3
24	12-12	N KY	N KY×3	Ace	N KY server	aced Team	+1.5
25	12-13	N KY	AMER×3	Serve err	N KY server		+1.2
26	12-14	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.4
27	12-15	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Emory Guderian	+1.3
28	13-15	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Sydney Bray, Ashley Sess	+1.0
29	14-15	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck	blk Ivey Stocks	+1.4
30	14-16	N KY	AMER	Attack err	Sydney Bray		+1.3
31	14-17	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Emory Guderian	+1.4
32	15-17	AMER	N KY×3	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.1
33	16-17	N KY	N KY×3	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.6
34	17-17	N KY	N KY×3	Bad set	Deniz Dakak		+1.9
35	17-18	N KY	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+1.6
36	17-19	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Ivey Stocks		+1.9
37	18-19	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+1.4
38	18-20	N KY	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+1.7
39	19-20	AMER	N KY×6	Serve err	AMER server		+1.5
40	20-20	N KY	N KY×6	Kill	Abbigail Pickard	set Deniz Dakak	+2.3
41	21-20	N KY	N KY×6	Kill	Ashley Sess		+2.7
42	22-20	N KY	N KY×6	Kill	Emma Adkins	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.8
43	23-20	N KY	N KY×6	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+2.4
44	24-20	N KY	N KY×6	Ace	N KY server	aced Salme Hollas	+1.5
45	24-21	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
46	24-22	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Emma Adkins	blk Prinzez Zeck	+1.1
47	24-23	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Ashley Sess		+2.3
48	25-23	AMER	N KY	Kill	Emma Adkins	set Abbigail Pickard	+4.3
Set 4
1	1-0	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.7
2	1-1	N KY	AMER×5	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.2
3	1-2	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.6
4	1-3	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+2.5
5	1-4	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+2.4
6	1-5	AMER	AMER×5	Attack err	Ivey Stocks	blk Salme Hollas, Elise Sterling	+2.2
7	2-5	AMER	N KY	Kill	Abbigail Pickard	set Emma Adkins	+1.7
8	3-5	N KY	N KY	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+2.4
9	3-6	N KY	AMER	Serve err	N KY server		+2.1
10	4-6	AMER	N KY	Attack err	Deniz Dakak		+2.0
11	4-7	N KY	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+2.1
12	5-7	AMER	N KY×4	Kill	Ashley Sess	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.0
13	6-7	N KY	N KY×4	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.8
14	7-7	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+3.0
15	8-7	N KY	N KY×4	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+3.3
16	8-8	N KY	AMER	Serve err	N KY server		+2.6
17	9-8	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ashley Sess	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.8
18	9-9	N KY	AMER×4	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.7
19	9-10	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Sydney Bray	blk Prinzez Zeck, Salme Hollas	+3.3
20	9-11	AMER	AMER×4	Ace	AMER server	aced Daisy Cluxton	+3.2
21	9-12	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Lucia Heid	blk Prinzez Zeck, Carly Sciborski	+2.9
22	10-12	AMER	N KY	Serve err	AMER server		+2.3
23	10-13	N KY	AMER	Serve err	N KY server		+2.5
24	10-14	AMER	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+2.6
25	11-14	AMER	N KY×3	Serve err	AMER server		+1.9
26	12-14	N KY	N KY×3	Kill	Ivey Stocks		+2.8
27	13-14	N KY	N KY×3	Ace	N KY server	aced Alex Ioannou	+3.4
28	13-15	N KY	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+3.1
29	14-15	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ivey Stocks	set Abbigail Pickard	+3.0
30	14-16	N KY	AMER	Kill	Bella Marrero	set Olivia Miller	+3.2
31	14-17	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+3.5
32	15-17	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ava Hoying	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.6
33	15-18	N KY	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+3.0
34	16-18	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ashley Sess	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.6
35	16-19	N KY	AMER	Serve err	N KY server		+3.1
36	17-19	AMER	N KY	Kill	Ashley Sess	set Abbigail Pickard	+2.7
37	17-20	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+3.3
38	17-21	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Lucia Heid		+3.1
39	17-22	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+2.0
40	18-22	AMER	N KY	Serve err	AMER server		+0.9
41	19-22	N KY	N KY	Kill	Lucia Heid	set Emma Adkins	+1.9
42	19-23	N KY	AMER×3	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Bella Marrero	+2.5
43	19-24	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Ivey Stocks		+1.5
44	19-25	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.