Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026

Northern Ky. def. Cleveland St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Ky. 91.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Northern Ky. won at Cleveland St. 3-1 (25-21, 23-25, 25-22, 25-18) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Ava Hoying and Sydney Bray led Northern Ky. with 15 kills each; Cleveland St.'s Bryn VanVleet had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
N KY252325253
CLE ST212522181

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Northern Ky. won it on runs.

Win probability never moved more than 4.7 points on one rally; Cleveland St. topped out at 23% in Set 3. RallyIQ gave Northern Ky. 91% before first serve.

Northern Ky.Cleveland St.
  • Longest run+2
    64

    Up 3–2 in the fourth set, Northern Ky. scored 6 straight to make it 9–2. Final score of the set: 25–18.

Cleveland St. above 50Northern Ky. belowMax swing 4.7%

Northern Ky.Cleveland St.

Hitting
Northern Ky. .231·Cleveland St. .196
Aces
Northern Ky. 13·Cleveland St. 7
Serve err
Northern Ky. 5·Cleveland St. 10
Blocks
Northern Ky. 5·Cleveland St. 80 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Northern Ky. 71·Cleveland St. 64

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Cleveland St. above 50 · Northern Ky. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.7% CLE STrally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.7% to Cleveland St. — set 2, N KY 23-25 CLE ST. Cleveland St. ace. CLE ST win probability 10% → 14%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

N KY 89.9%10.1% CLE ST

Northern Ky. wins

3-0
44.2%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.1%

Cleveland St. wins

3-0
1.4%
3-1
3.1%
3-2
5.7%
N KY break %
49.6% vs this opp
CLE ST break %
39.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Cleveland St.Ace+4.7%

    Cleveland St. ace

    Set 2 · N KY 23-25 CLE ST · CLE ST 10% → 14%

  2. 02
    Cleveland St.Ace+3.7%

    Cleveland St. ace on Sydney Bray

    Set 2 · N KY 23-24 CLE ST · CLE ST 6% → 10%

  3. 03
    Bryn VanVleetKill+3.6%

    Kill by Bryn VanVleet (set by Fiona Cooper)

    Set 3 · N KY 12-14 CLE ST · CLE ST 19% → 23%

  4. 04
    Julia JozefovKill+3.2%

    Kill by Julia Jozefov (set by Fiona Cooper)

    Set 3 · N KY 12-13 CLE ST · CLE ST 16% → 19%

  5. 05
    Bryn VanVleetAttack error+3.2%

    Attack error by Bryn VanVleet

    Set 3 · N KY 14-14 CLE ST · N KY 79% → 83%

  6. 06
    Addison KoppelmanAttack error+3.0%

    Attack error by Addison Koppelman

    Set 3 · N KY 15-14 CLE ST · N KY 83% → 86%

  7. 07
    Lucia HeidAttack error+2.9%

    Attack error by Lucia Heid

    Set 3 · N KY 7-9 CLE ST · CLE ST 18% → 21%

  8. 08
    Ava HoyingKill+2.8%

    Kill by Ava Hoying

    Set 3 · N KY 17-15 CLE ST · N KY 85% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415246.2830504002121
415224.542131153010.518.5
47213.385000100429
43011.27301220010.54.5
4207.286120900004
4104.25042111500213
46827-.074000300006
4139-.222000300001
4002.0005111930001
Team totals5017143.23149135717010598
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416744.2050228402119
413535.22903170031.517.5
410326.26910020132.512.5
47417.17600010132.59.5
4204.5004704700002
4013-.333211730001
47425.12010010010.57.5
4000–010200001
4001.0004022330000
4000–100500000
1217.143000000002
1001.000000120000
1000–000000000
Team totals5725163.196567106413212886

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 N KY · CLE ST 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 N KYCLE ST 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 N KYCLE ST 4

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 N KYCLE ST 3

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 6 N KYCLE ST 3

Bars above the line = Cleveland St. leads, below = Northern Ky. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northern Ky.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%12/25
38%6/16
2
69%11/16
27%4/15
3
75%9/12
61%14/23
4
62%8/13
53%10/19
5
73%8/11
33%4/12
6
80%8/10
33%4/12
All
64%56/87
43%42/97

Cleveland St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
50%10/20
2
65%11/17
31%5/16
3
39%9/23
42%8/19
4
62%8/13
33%4/12
5
57%8/14
20%2/10
6
89%8/9
20%2/10
All
57%55/97
36%31/87

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#N KY-CLE STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.8
21-1CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+0.7
31-2N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.8
41-3CLE STCLE STAceCleveland St.aced Sydney Bray+1.2
52-3CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.8
62-4N KYCLE STKillFiona Cooperset Addison Koppelman+1.0
73-4CLE STN KY×4Attack errJulia Jozefov+0.9
84-4N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.aced Abigail Bartolo+1.1
95-4N KYN KY×4Attack errAlyssa Cerovac+1.0
106-4N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.aced Abigail Bartolo+0.9
116-5N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Alyssa Cerovac+0.7
127-5CLE STN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
138-5N KYN KYAceNorthern Ky.aced Bryn VanVleet+0.8
148-6N KYCLE STKillJeriLynn Koehlerset Fiona Cooper+0.6
159-6CLE STN KYAttack errJazen Debina+0.6
169-7N KYCLE STServe errNorthern Ky.+0.6
1710-7CLE STN KY×4Serve errCleveland St.+0.6
1811-7N KYN KY×4KillAllison Risleyset Daisy Cluxton+0.7
1912-7N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.aced Addison Koppelman+0.5
2013-7N KYN KY×4KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
2113-8N KYCLE ST×3KillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.2
2213-9CLE STCLE ST×3BlockedSydney Brayblk Bryn VanVleet, Julia Jozefov+0.5
2313-10CLE STCLE ST×3KillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+0.6
2414-10CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Daisy Cluxton+0.5
2514-11N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+0.5
2614-12CLE STCLE STAceCleveland St.aced Daisy Cluxton+0.9
2715-12CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
2816-12N KYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.8
2916-13N KYCLE STServe errNorthern Ky.+0.5
3017-13CLE STN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
3117-14N KYCLE STKillAlyssa Cerovacset Fiona Cooper+0.5
3218-14CLE STN KYAttack errJeriLynn Koehler+0.6
3318-15N KYCLE STKillAlyssa Cerovacset Fiona Cooper+0.5
3419-15CLE STN KYAttack errAlyssa Cerovac+0.6
3519-16N KYCLE STKillJeriLynn Koehlerset Fiona Cooper+0.5
3619-17CLE STCLE STAttack errLucia Heid+1.0
3720-17CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
3820-18N KYCLE ST×3KillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+0.8
3920-19CLE STCLE ST×3KillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+1.6
4020-20CLE STCLE ST×3KillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+2.3
4121-20CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.9
4221-21N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+2.1
4322-21CLE STN KY×4KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+2.2
4423-21N KYN KY×4KillAllison Risleyset Abbigail Pickard+2.4
4524-21N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.aced Vayda Delventhal+1.5
4625-21N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.aced Vayda Delventhal+0.5
Set 2
10-1CLE STCLE STAttack errIvey Stocks+0.7
21-1CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
31-2N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Addison Koppelman+0.6
42-2CLE STN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
53-2N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Bryn VanVleet+0.6
64-2N KYN KY×3KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
74-3N KYCLE STBlockedLucia Heidblk Jazen Debina, Julia Jozefov+0.4
84-4CLE STCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.7
95-4CLE STN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
105-5N KYCLE STBlockedEmma Adkinsblk Julia Jozefov+0.6
116-5CLE STN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
126-6N KYCLE STKillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+0.6
137-6CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
147-7N KYCLE STKillJeriLynn Koehlerset Fiona Cooper+0.6
158-7CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+0.6
168-8N KYCLE STServe errNorthern Ky.+0.6
179-8CLE STN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
1810-8N KYN KYAttack errJazen Debina+0.7
1910-9N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.5
2011-9CLE STN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
2111-10N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+0.6
2212-10CLE STN KYAttack errJulia Jozefov+0.6
2313-10N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
2413-11N KYCLE STKillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+0.5
2513-12CLE STCLE STKillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+0.8
2614-12CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+0.6
2714-13N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.6
2815-13CLE STN KYKillEmma Adkinsset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
2916-13N KYN KYKillSydney Brayset Daisy Cluxton+0.7
3016-14N KYCLE STKillJeriLynn Koehlerset Abbigail Pickard+0.5
3117-14CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+0.6
3217-15N KYCLE ST×4KillJeriLynn Koehlerset Fiona Cooper+0.5
3317-16CLE STCLE ST×4KillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+0.9
3417-17CLE STCLE ST×4AceCleveland St.aced Daisy Cluxton+1.2
3517-18CLE STCLE ST×4KillBryn VanVleetset Vayda Delventhal+1.5
3618-18CLE STN KYKillAva Hoyingset Allison Risley+1.1
3718-19N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+1.3
3819-19CLE STN KY×4KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
3920-19N KYN KY×4Attack errBryn VanVleet+1.5
4021-19N KYN KY×4AceNorthern Ky.aced Addison Koppelman+1.3
4122-19N KYN KY×4KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
4222-20N KYCLE STKillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+0.5
4322-21CLE STCLE STKillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+1.2
4423-21CLE STN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
4523-22N KYCLE ST×4KillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+1.0
4623-23CLE STCLE ST×4Attack errLucia Heid+2.3
4723-24CLE STCLE ST×4AceCleveland St.aced Sydney Bray+3.7
4823-25CLE STCLE ST×4AceCleveland St.+4.7
Set 3
11-0N KYN KYAceNorthern Ky.+1.6
21-1N KYCLE STAttack errEmma Adkins+1.4
32-1CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.3
42-2N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+1.4
52-3CLE STCLE STBlockedSydney Brayblk Bryn VanVleet, Julia Jozefov+2.1
63-3CLE STN KY×3KillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.5
74-3N KYN KY×3Attack errBryn VanVleet+1.8
85-3N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Addison Koppelman+1.6
95-4N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+1.3
106-4CLE STN KYBlockedBryn VanVleetblk Ava Hoying, Ivey Stocks+1.3
116-5N KYCLE STKillAlyssa Cerovacset Julia Jozefov+1.4
126-6CLE STCLE STAceCleveland St.aced Daisy Cluxton+2.1
137-6CLE STN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.5
147-7N KYCLE ST×3KillAlyssa Cerovacset Vayda Delventhal+1.7
157-8CLE STCLE ST×3BlockedIvey Stocksblk JeriLynn Koehler, Alyssa Cerovac+2.5
167-9CLE STCLE ST×3Attack errLucia Heid+2.9
178-9CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+2.0
188-10N KYCLE STKillAlyssa Cerovacset Fiona Cooper+2.4
199-10CLE STN KY×3KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+2.0
2010-10N KYN KY×3KillSydney Brayset Daisy Cluxton+2.6
2111-10N KYN KY×3Attack errJazen Debina+2.4
2211-11N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+2.0
2312-11CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.9
2412-12N KYCLE ST×3KillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+2.1
2512-13CLE STCLE ST×3KillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+3.2
2612-14CLE STCLE ST×3KillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+3.6
2713-14CLE STN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+2.4
2814-14N KYN KY×3Attack errBryn VanVleet+3.2
2915-14N KYN KY×3Attack errAddison Koppelman+3.0
3015-15N KYCLE STServe errNorthern Ky.+2.5
3116-15CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+2.4
3217-15N KYN KYKillAva Hoying+2.8
3317-16N KYCLE STKillAlyssa Cerovacset Fiona Cooper+2.1
3418-16CLE STN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+2.2
3519-16N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Bryn VanVleet+2.3
3620-16N KYN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.7
3720-17N KYCLE STKillJeriLynn Koehlerset Fiona Cooper+1.0
3821-17CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+1.3
3922-17N KYN KYAttack errAlyssa Cerovac+1.0
4022-18N KYCLE STServe errNorthern Ky.+0.4
4122-19CLE STCLE STBlockedLucia Heidblk Jazen Debina, JeriLynn Koehler+1.0
4223-19CLE STN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
4323-20N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+0.6
4423-21CLE STCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+1.7
4524-21CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+2.2
4624-22N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Vayda Delventhal+1.0
4725-22CLE STN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+2.0
Set 4
11-0CLE STN KYAttack errJeriLynn Koehler+0.9
21-1N KYCLE STKillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+1.0
32-1CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
43-1N KYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.1
53-2N KYCLE STAttack errAva Hoying+0.9
64-2CLE STN KY×6Serve errCleveland St.+0.9
75-2N KYN KY×6KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
86-2N KYN KY×6Attack errJulia Jozefov+0.8
97-2N KYN KY×6BlockedBryn VanVleetblk Ivey Stocks, Abbigail Pickard+0.7
108-2N KYN KY×6BlockedJazen Debinablk Ivey Stocks, Ava Hoying+0.5
119-2N KYN KY×6AceNorthern Ky.aced Vayda Delventhal+0.4
129-3N KYCLE STKillJulia Jozefovset Fiona Cooper+0.3
1310-3CLE STN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
1411-3N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
1511-4N KYCLE STKillAlyssa Cerovacset Fiona Cooper+0.2
1612-4CLE STN KYKillAbbigail Pickardset Sydney Bray+0.2
1713-4N KYN KYAttack errAlyssa Cerovac+0.2
1813-5N KYCLE STKillJeriLynn Koehlerset Fiona Cooper+0.1
1914-5CLE STN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+0.1
2014-6N KYCLE ST×3Attack errEmma Adkins+0.1
2114-7CLE STCLE ST×3KillJazen Debinaset Fiona Cooper+0.2
2214-8CLE STCLE ST×3KillBryn VanVleetset Vayda Delventhal+0.3
2315-8CLE STN KY×3KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
2416-8N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Bryn VanVleet+0.2
2517-8N KYN KY×3BlockedBryn VanVleetblk Katie Noschang, Sydney Bray+0.1
2617-9N KYCLE STAttack errAva Hoying+0.1
2718-9CLE STN KYServe errCleveland St.+0.1
2818-10N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.1
2918-11CLE STCLE STAceCleveland St.aced Sydney Bray+0.1
3019-11CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Daisy Cluxton+0.1
3119-12N KYCLE STKillBryn VanVleetset Fiona Cooper+0.1
3220-12CLE STN KYAttack errJazen Debina+0.1
3320-13N KYCLE STKillFiona Cooperset Audrey Ellis+0.1
3420-14CLE STCLE STKillSophie Skidmoreset Fiona Cooper+0.2
3521-14CLE STN KYBlockedSophie Skidmoreblk Ivey Stocks, Abbigail Pickard+0.2
3622-14N KYN KYAttack errJeriLynn Koehler+0.1
3722-15N KYCLE STKillSophie Skidmoreset Fiona Cooper·
3823-15CLE STN KYAttack errJeriLynn Koehler+0.1
3923-16N KYCLE ST×3Attack errLucia Heid·
4023-17CLE STCLE ST×3BlockedLucia Heidblk JeriLynn Koehler, Jazen Debina+0.1
4123-18CLE STCLE ST×3BlockedLucia Heidblk JeriLynn Koehler+0.1
4224-18CLE STN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
4325-18N KYN KYAttack errBryn VanVleet·

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ky. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).