Final · 5 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026

Toledo def. West Virginia 3–2

Toledo won at West Virginia 3-2 (20-25, 25-21, 25-14, 20-25, 15-11) on Fri, Sep 11, 2026. Toledo's Sophie Catalano led with 20 kills, and Janelle Green added 19 digs.

Data through · final Sep 11

Set12345Sets
TOLEDO20252520153
WVU25211425112

Win probability

West Virginia above 50 · Toledo below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+11.5% TOLEDOrally 201 · set 5

Biggest swing: 11.5% to Toledo — set 5, TOLEDO 8-6 WVU. Kill by Ava Siefke (set by Grace Freiberger). WVU win probability 39% → 28%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TOLEDO 51.9%48.1% WVU

Toledo wins

3-0
13.3%
3-1
19.5%
3-2
19.0%

West Virginia wins

3-0
11.7%
3-1
18.0%
3-2
18.4%
TOLEDO break %
41.0% vs this opp
WVU break %
40.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava SiefkeKill+11.5%

    Kill by Ava Siefke (set by Grace Freiberger)

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 8-6 WVU · TOLEDO 61% → 72%

  2. 02
    Kayla OzanichKill+10.2%

    Kill by Kayla Ozanich (set by Madelyn Bach)

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 9-6 WVU · TOLEDO 72% → 82%

  3. 03
    West VirginiaAce+9.9%

    West Virginia ace

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 4-4 WVU · WVU 38% → 48%

  4. 04

    Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Janelle Green)

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 3-2 WVU · TOLEDO 49% → 59%

  5. 05

    Kill by Jessica Costlow (set by Meg Jarrett)

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 4-2 WVU · TOLEDO 59% → 68%

  6. 06
    Nina HorningKill+9.3%

    Kill by Nina Horning (set by Alexis Finnvold)

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 1-2 WVU · WVU 48% → 57%

  7. 07

    Kill by Sophie Catalano (set by Janelle Green)

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 1-0 WVU · TOLEDO 49% → 58%

  8. 08

    Kill by Sophie Catalano (set by Janelle Green)

    Set 5 · TOLEDO 14-11 WVU · TOLEDO 87% → 96%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Toledoaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513019.6841101012216
59233.21202211200011
57110.60000040132.59.5
54416.000010101227
5000–1900900000
3011-1.000011500001
520241.4390002000020
513637.18900060010.513.5
5000–5251340002
5102.50037021900001
4000–113500001
1001.000000000000
Team totals6716160.31963813767387105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519655.23603411200022
517334.4120001002118
55316.12511200010.56.5
5105.2003902600001
3114.00000040010.51.5
22314-.071000100002
5000–011510001
5000–4001720000
46215.267000200217
46117.29400020010.56.5
4102.5001120300003
4000–1001020000
3214.25000000233.55.5
1000–000210000
Team totals6020166.2415679648210796

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 TOLEDO · WVU 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 2 TOLEDOWVU 5

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 TOLEDOWVU 3

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 5 TOLEDOWVU 2

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 5 TOLEDOWVU 5

Set 5

15-11

Longest run 3 TOLEDOWVU 2

Bars above the line = West Virginia leads, below = Toledo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Toledo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
72%13/18
50%11/22
2
63%12/19
41%9/22
3
71%10/14
41%7/17
4
53%9/17
40%6/15
5
69%9/13
47%8/17
6
53%8/15
25%3/12
All
64%61/96
42%44/105

West Virginia

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%13/20
29%4/14
2
50%11/22
40%8/20
3
67%10/15
21%3/14
4
60%9/15
44%8/18
5
53%9/17
31%4/13
6
56%9/16
47%8/17
All
58%61/105
36%35/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

201 rallies

#TOLEDO-WVUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0WVUTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.8
21-1TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+1.8
32-1WVUTOLEDOKillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+1.8
43-1TOLEDOTOLEDOBlockedMacie Smithblk Sierra Pertzborn, Audrey Dyas+2.6
53-2TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+1.7
64-2WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+1.8
75-2TOLEDOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+2.5
85-3TOLEDOWVU×5Serve errToledo+1.6
95-4WVUWVU×5Attack errAva Siefke+2.6
105-5WVUWVU×5KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+2.8
115-6WVUWVU×5KillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.9
125-7WVUWVU×5Attack errAudrey Dyas+2.9
136-7WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+1.9
147-7TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errMaddy McGath+3.0
157-8TOLEDOWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
168-8WVUTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+2.1
178-9TOLEDOWVU×3KillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+2.2
188-10WVUWVU×3KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+3.1
198-11WVUWVU×3KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+3.0
209-11WVUTOLEDOAttack errMirjam Karoliine Kask+1.8
219-12TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
229-13WVUWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+2.8
2310-13WVUTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+1.6
2411-13TOLEDOTOLEDOAceToledoaced Lucie Smardova+2.8
2511-14TOLEDOWVUKillMirjam Karoliine Kaskset Alexis Finnvold+2.3
2612-14WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+2.0
2712-15TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+2.3
2813-15WVUTOLEDOBlockedMacie Smithblk Sierra Pertzborn, Audrey Dyas+2.0
2914-15TOLEDOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+3.5
3014-16TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+2.7
3115-16WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+2.5
3216-16TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errMaddy McGath+4.1
3316-17TOLEDOWVUAttack errAvery Adamski+3.1
3417-17WVUTOLEDOKillAudrey Dyasset Janelle Green+3.0
3517-18TOLEDOWVU×3KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+3.3
3617-19WVUWVU×3KillAlexis Finnvoldset Eily Painter+4.6
3717-20WVUWVU×3KillNina Horningset Maddy McGath+4.1
3818-20WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+2.1
3919-20TOLEDOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Mirjam Karoliine Kask+4.2
4019-21TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+3.7
4120-21WVUTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Madelyn Bach+3.1
4220-22TOLEDOWVU×4KillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+4.1
4320-23WVUWVU×4KillTrinity Sheridanset Jessica Costlow+4.6
4420-24WVUWVU×4AceWest Virginiaaced Grace Freiberger+2.5
4520-25WVUWVU×4KillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+0.7
Set 2
10-1TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+1.8
21-1WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.8
32-1TOLEDOTOLEDOAceToledoaced Reagan Turk+2.7
42-2TOLEDOWVU×3KillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+1.8
52-3WVUWVU×3KillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+2.8
62-4WVUWVU×3Attack errJessica Costlow+2.8
73-4WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.8
84-4TOLEDOTOLEDOAceToledoaced Nina Horning+2.8
94-5TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+2.0
105-5WVUTOLEDO×4KillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+2.0
116-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×4KillJessica Costlowset Madelyn Bach+2.9
127-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×4BlockedMacie Smithblk Sierra Pertzborn+2.9
138-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×4KillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+2.8
148-6TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+1.8
159-6WVUTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Madelyn Bach+2.0
1610-6TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errNina Horning+2.6
1710-7TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+1.5
1810-8WVUWVUAceWest Virginiaaced Grace Freiberger+2.6
1911-8WVUTOLEDOKillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+2.1
2012-8TOLEDOTOLEDOAceToledoaced Eily Painter+2.7
2112-9TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+1.6
2213-9WVUTOLEDOServe errWest Virginia+1.9
2314-9TOLEDOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+2.3
2414-10TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+1.2
2515-10WVUTOLEDOKillJanelle Greenset Grace Freiberger+1.6
2615-11TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+1.2
2716-11WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.6
2816-12TOLEDOWVUKillSaar Bertelsset Alexis Finnvold+1.2
2917-12WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.6
3017-13TOLEDOWVUKillSaar Bertelsset Alexis Finnvold+1.1
3118-13WVUTOLEDO×3KillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+1.5
3219-13TOLEDOTOLEDO×3AceToledoaced Eily Painter+1.5
3320-13TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errAnna Barr+0.9
3420-14TOLEDOWVU×3Serve errToledo+0.3
3520-15WVUWVU×3KillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+0.8
3620-16WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Lauren Duncan+1.3
3721-16WVUTOLEDOBlockedAnna Barrblk Ava Siefke, Kayla Ozanich+1.4
3821-17TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+0.8
3922-17WVUTOLEDOServe errWest Virginia+1.3
4023-17TOLEDOTOLEDOBlockedNina Horningblk Audrey Dyas+0.9
4123-18TOLEDOWVU×3BlockedAva Siefkeblk Trinity Sheridan, Mirjam Karoliine Kask+0.2
4223-19WVUWVU×3KillSaar Bertelsset Alexis Finnvold+0.6
4323-20WVUWVU×3Attack errAva Siefke+1.3
4424-20WVUTOLEDOServe errWest Virginia+1.7
4524-21TOLEDOWVUKillSaar Bertelsset Alexis Finnvold+0.5
4625-21WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.2
Set 3
11-0WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+2.4
22-0TOLEDOTOLEDOKillAudrey Dyasset Janelle Green+3.4
32-1TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+2.3
43-1WVUTOLEDO×3Serve errWest Virginia+2.4
54-1TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+3.3
65-1TOLEDOTOLEDO×3Attack errTrinity Sheridan+3.1
75-2TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+1.9
86-2WVUTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+2.2
96-3TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Alexis Finnvold+1.9
107-3WVUTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+2.2
117-4TOLEDOWVUKillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+1.9
128-4WVUTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+2.2
138-5TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+2.0
149-5WVUTOLEDO×5KillAva Siefkeset Grace Freiberger+2.3
1510-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×5Attack errNina Horning+2.9
1611-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×5KillAudrey Dyasset Janelle Green+2.4
1712-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×5Attack errNina Horning+1.8
1813-5TOLEDOTOLEDO×5Attack errNina Horning+1.3
1913-6TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+0.6
2014-6WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+0.9
2114-7TOLEDOWVUKillCamille Huffset Alexis Finnvold+0.6
2214-8WVUWVUBlockedSophie Catalanoblk Saar Bertels, Camille Huff+1.2
2315-8WVUTOLEDOServe errWest Virginia+1.2
2416-8TOLEDOTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+1.2
2516-9TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+0.5
2617-9WVUTOLEDOBad setAlexis Finnvold+0.7
2717-10TOLEDOWVUKillMaddy McGathset Meg Jarrett+0.4
2818-10WVUTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+0.7
2918-11TOLEDOWVUKillSaar Bertelsset Alexis Finnvold+0.4
3019-11WVUTOLEDO×3Attack errMaddy McGath+0.6
3120-11TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+0.4
3221-11TOLEDOTOLEDO×3AceToledoaced Reagan Turk+0.2
3321-12TOLEDOWVUKillMaddy McGathset Lauren Duncan·
3422-12WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Grace Freiberger+0.1
3523-12TOLEDOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green·
3623-13TOLEDOWVUKillAnna Barrset Lauren Duncan·
3724-13WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green·
3824-14TOLEDOWVUBlockedAudrey Dyasblk Camille Huff·
3925-14WVUTOLEDOKillAudrey Dyasset Janelle Green·
Set 4
11-0TOLEDOTOLEDOAttack errSaar Bertels+3.4
22-0TOLEDOTOLEDOAceToledoaced Nina Horning+3.3
32-1TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+2.2
43-1WVUTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Anna Barr+2.4
53-2TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Reagan Turk+2.3
64-2WVUTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+2.4
75-2TOLEDOTOLEDOBlockedNina Horningblk Sierra Pertzborn, Kayla Ozanich+3.3
85-3TOLEDOWVU×3KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
95-4WVUWVU×3AceWest Virginiaaced Grace Freiberger+3.4
105-5WVUWVU×3KillLauren Duncanset Reagan Turk+3.7
116-5WVUTOLEDOKillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+2.6
126-6TOLEDOWVU×5KillMaddy McGathset Lauren Duncan+2.6
136-7WVUWVU×5AceWest Virginiaaced Grace Freiberger+3.9
146-8WVUWVU×5AceWest Virginiaaced Jessica Costlow+3.9
156-9WVUWVU×5BlockedAva Siefkeblk Trinity Sheridan, Maddy McGath+3.7
166-10WVUWVU×5AceWest Virginiaaced Jessica Costlow+3.4
177-10WVUTOLEDOServe errWest Virginia+2.0
188-10TOLEDOTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Kayla Ozanich+3.5
198-11TOLEDOWVUAttack errAudrey Dyas+2.7
208-12WVUWVUBlockedAudrey Dyasblk Camille Huff+3.5
219-12WVUTOLEDOServe errWest Virginia+2.1
229-13TOLEDOWVUKillCamille Huffset Lauren Duncan+2.5
2310-13WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+2.1
2410-14TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+2.5
2510-15WVUWVUBlockedJessica Costlowblk Anna Barr, Camille Huff+3.0
2611-15WVUTOLEDO×5KillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+1.6
2712-15TOLEDOTOLEDO×5KillKayla Ozanichset Janelle Green+3.0
2813-15TOLEDOTOLEDO×5KillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+3.8
2914-15TOLEDOTOLEDO×5BlockedCamille Huffblk Kayla Ozanich+4.5
3015-15TOLEDOTOLEDO×5AceToledoaced Cassidy Bruns+5.1
3115-16TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+3.8
3216-16WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+3.7
3317-16TOLEDOTOLEDOKillSierra Pertzborn+5.8
3417-17TOLEDOWVU×3KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+3.9
3517-18WVUWVU×3KillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+6.2
3617-19WVUWVU×3Attack errSierra Pertzborn+6.1
3718-19WVUTOLEDOAttack errTrinity Sheridan+3.7
3818-20TOLEDOWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+4.5
3919-20WVUTOLEDOServe errWest Virginia+3.8
4019-21TOLEDOWVUKillSaar Bertelsset Reagan Turk+4.9
4120-21WVUTOLEDOKillAva Siefkeset Madelyn Bach+4.0
4220-22TOLEDOWVU×4KillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+5.4
4320-23WVUWVU×4KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+6.1
4420-24WVUWVU×4Attack errAva Siefke+3.3
4520-25WVUWVU×4Attack errSophie Catalano+2.3
Set 5
11-0TOLEDOTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+8.9
21-1TOLEDOWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+6.1
31-2WVUWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+9.3
42-2WVUTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Janelle Green+6.4
53-2TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillJessica Costlowset Janelle Green+9.6
64-2TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillJessica Costlowset Meg Jarrett+9.5
74-3TOLEDOWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+6.1
84-4WVUWVUAceWest Virginia+9.9
95-4WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+7.2
105-5TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+7.2
116-5WVUTOLEDOAttack errTrinity Sheridan+7.6
126-6TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Reagan Turk+7.6
137-6WVUTOLEDO×3Serve errWest Virginia+8.1
148-6TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillAva Siefkeset Grace Freiberger+11.5
159-6TOLEDOTOLEDO×3KillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+10.2
169-7TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+5.5
1710-7WVUTOLEDOKillKayla Ozanichset Madelyn Bach+7.3
1810-8TOLEDOWVUServe errToledo+5.5
1911-8WVUTOLEDOKillSierra Pertzbornset Madelyn Bach+7.6
2011-9TOLEDOWVUBlockedAva Siefkeblk Anna Barr, Camille Huff+5.4
2112-9WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+8.0
2212-10TOLEDOWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+5.1
2313-10WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+8.3
2413-11TOLEDOWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+4.5
2514-11WVUTOLEDOKillSophie Catalanoset Janelle Green+8.3
2615-11TOLEDOTOLEDOKillJessica Costlowset Grace Freiberger+4.4

Score shown after each rally, Toledo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).