Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Robert Morris def. Northern Ky. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Northern Ky. 97.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Robert Morris won at Northern Ky. 3-2 (25-19, 20-25, 18-25, 25-23, 15-13) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Robert Morris' Lauren Decker led with 22 kills, and Anahi Alvarado added 34 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
ROBMOR25201825153
N KY19252523132

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Kenlee Barnard served 4 aces, and Robert Morris needed every one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Robert Morris's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Northern Ky. was RallyIQ's 97% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Robert Morris 0–2 Northern Ky.

    Robert Morris's low point. Robert Morris then won 25 of the next 46 rallies and the set 25–23.

    Robert Morris 2% → 19%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Robert Morris 6–7 Northern Ky.

    3 straight Robert Morris points turned a 6–7 deficit into a 9–7 lead.

    Robert Morris 18% → 50%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Robert Morris 12–12 Northern Ky.

    Robert Morris won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–13 and win the match 3–2.

    Robert Morris 36% → >99%

Northern Ky. above 50Robert Morris belowMax swing 30.3%

Robert MorrisNorthern Ky.

Sideout %
Robert Morris 51.4·Northern Ky. 52.4
Break %
Robert Morris 47.6·Northern Ky. 48.6
Hitting
Robert Morris .130·Northern Ky. .141
Longest run
Robert Morris 7·Northern Ky. 8

Lauren Decker
7 kills inside the turning points, 22 K and .156 for the match (24.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Northern Ky. above 50 · Robert Morris below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+30.3% ROBMORrally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 30.3% to Robert Morris — set 5, ROBMOR 15-13 N KY. Kill by Lauren Decker (set by Kenlee Barnard). N KY win probability 30% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ROBMOR 4.8%95.2% N KY

Robert Morris wins

3-0
0.5%
3-1
1.4%
3-2
2.9%

Northern Ky. wins

3-0
55.9%
3-1
29.6%
3-2
9.7%
ROBMOR break %
36.5% vs this opp
N KY break %
49.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lauren DeckerKill+30.3%

    Kill by Lauren Decker (set by Kenlee Barnard)

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 15-13 N KY · ROBMOR 70% → 100%

  2. 02

    Ace by Kenlee Barnard on Sydney Bray

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 14-12 N KY · ROBMOR 53% → 80%

  3. 03
    Keira HornungKill+18.5%

    Kill by Keira Hornung (set by Lauren Decker)

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 12-11 N KY · ROBMOR 29% → 48%

  4. 04
    Lauren DeckerKill+16.8%

    Kill by Lauren Decker (set by Kenlee Barnard)

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 13-12 N KY · ROBMOR 36% → 53%

  5. 05
    Sydney BrayAttack error+13.9%

    Attack error by Sydney Bray

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 9-7 N KY · ROBMOR 36% → 50%

  6. 06
    Emma AdkinsKill+12.4%

    Kill by Emma Adkins (set by Sydney Bray)

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 10-11 N KY · N KY 68% → 80%

  7. 07

    Layla Todd stuffed by Ivey Stocks & Sydney Bray

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 9-9 N KY · N KY 58% → 69%

  8. 08
    Ivey StocksKill+11.9%

    Kill by Ivey Stocks (set by Abbigail Pickard)

    Set 5 · ROBMOR 12-12 N KY · N KY 52% → 64%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5221077.156113180031.524.5
5141148.06321224300015
511223.3910002008415
58521.14300010010.58.5
52010.20049421601228
3124-.250100300001
54522-.045100200426
5003.0003013410000
5000–000500000
4000–120600002
Team totals6235208.1305888111511810103
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
58016.50021210296.515.5
514637.2160002002115
58433.12111023116413
5106.1674112130010.52.5
51320-.1000001920001
2001.000000120000
511549.1220011004213
5015-.2001222800002
48525.120000410008
4216.167200910002
Team totals5325198.1414757101832214105

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 ROBMOR · N KY 8

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 6 ROBMORN KY 3

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 4 ROBMORN KY 8

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 ROBMORN KY 5

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 7 ROBMORN KY 5

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 3 ROBMORN KY 2

Bars above the line = Northern Ky. leads, below = Robert Morris leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Robert Morris

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%10/26
36%5/14
2
56%10/18
55%12/22
3
67%10/15
62%16/26
4
53%9/17
36%5/14
5
57%8/14
43%6/14
6
47%7/15
38%5/13
All
51%54/105
48%49/103

Northern Ky.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
68%17/25
2
43%10/23
47%9/19
3
48%10/21
44%8/18
4
64%9/14
38%6/16
5
57%8/14
50%9/18
6
50%6/12
22%2/9
All
52%54/103
49%51/105

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

208 rallies

#ROBMOR-N KYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ROBMORROBMORAceLayla Toddaced Emory Guderian+0.5
22-0ROBMORROBMORBlockedAllison Risleyblk Kenlee Barnard, Addyson Butts+0.6
32-1ROBMORN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
42-2N KYN KYAttack errLauren Decker+0.5
53-2N KYROBMORKillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard+0.4
63-3ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
74-3N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+0.4
84-4ROBMORN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.3
95-4N KYROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+0.4
105-5ROBMORN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
115-6N KYN KYAttack errTia Schultz+0.5
126-6N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+0.4
137-6ROBMORROBMORAttack errAllison Risley+0.6
147-7ROBMORN KYBlockedAddyson Buttsblk Katie Noschang+0.4
158-7N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+0.5
169-7ROBMORROBMORAttack errSydney Bray+0.8
179-8ROBMORN KYAttack errLayla Todd+0.5
189-9N KYN KYKillAllison Risleyset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
1910-9N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Anahi Alvarado+0.5
2010-10ROBMORN KY×3Serve errRobert Morris+0.5
2110-11N KYN KY×3KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.6
2210-12N KYN KY×3Attack errAddyson Butts+0.5
2311-12N KYROBMOR×5KillKenlee Barnardset Natalie Stepanovich+0.4
2412-12ROBMORROBMOR×5KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+0.7
2513-12ROBMORROBMOR×5KillLauren Deckerset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
2614-12ROBMORROBMOR×5BlockedAllison Risleyblk Keira Hornung, Kenlee Barnard+1.0
2715-12ROBMORROBMOR×5KillNatalie Stepanovichset Kenlee Barnard+1.2
2815-13ROBMORN KYAttack errNatalie Stepanovich+0.7
2916-13N KYROBMOR×6KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+0.9
3017-13ROBMORROBMOR×6KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+1.3
3118-13ROBMORROBMOR×6KillLauren Decker+1.2
3219-13ROBMORROBMOR×6KillTia Schultzset Kenlee Barnard+1.0
3320-13ROBMORROBMOR×6Attack errIvey Stocks+0.8
3421-13ROBMORROBMOR×6KillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+0.5
3521-14ROBMORN KY×3KillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.1
3621-15N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Layla Todd+0.3
3721-16N KYN KY×3BlockedTia Schultzblk Ava Hoying, Katie Noschang+0.5
3822-16N KYROBMOR×3KillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+0.6
3923-16ROBMORROBMOR×3BlockedAva Hoyingblk Tia Schultz, Keira Hornung+0.4
4024-16ROBMORROBMOR×3KillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+0.2
4124-17ROBMORN KY×3KillAva Hoyingset Daisy Cluxton·
4224-18N KYN KY×3Attack errLayla Todd·
4324-19N KYN KY×3BlockedLauren Deckerblk Katie Noschang+0.1
4425-19N KYROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+0.2
Set 2
10-1N KYN KYBlockedNatalie Stepanovichblk Sydney Bray, Katie Noschang+1.2
21-1N KYROBMORKillKenlee Barnardset Anahi Alvarado+1.0
31-2ROBMORN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.8
41-3N KYN KYBlockedLauren Deckerblk Sydney Bray, Katie Noschang+1.0
52-3N KYROBMOR×3KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+0.8
63-3ROBMORROBMOR×3KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+1.4
74-3ROBMORROBMOR×3AceKenlee Barnardaced Emory Guderian+1.7
84-4ROBMORN KYServe errKenlee Barnard+1.1
95-4N KYROBMORServe errNorthern Ky.+1.4
106-4ROBMORROBMORAttack errLucia Heid+2.2
116-5ROBMORN KY×3KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.3
126-6N KYN KY×3AceNorthern Ky.aced Layla Todd+1.8
136-7N KYN KY×3Attack errLayla Todd+1.5
147-7N KYROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+1.2
157-8ROBMORN KYServe errRobert Morris+1.1
168-8N KYROBMORAttack errIvey Stocks+1.3
178-9ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.2
189-9N KYROBMOR×4Serve errNorthern Ky.+1.4
1910-9ROBMORROBMOR×4KillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard+2.3
2011-9ROBMORROBMOR×4KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+2.8
2112-9ROBMORROBMOR×4KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+3.2
2212-10ROBMORN KY×8KillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.8
2312-11N KYN KY×8KillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+2.6
2412-12N KYN KY×8BlockedAddyson Buttsblk Ava Hoying, Katie Noschang+2.4
2512-13N KYN KY×8KillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+2.1
2612-14N KYN KY×8BlockedLauren Deckerblk Katie Noschang, Sydney Bray+1.8
2712-15N KYN KY×8Bad setKenlee Barnard+1.4
2812-16N KYN KY×8KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.0
2912-17N KYN KY×8KillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
3013-17N KYROBMORServe errNorthern Ky.+0.4
3113-18ROBMORN KYAttack errLayla Todd+0.5
3214-18N KYROBMORBlockedSydney Brayblk Lauren Decker, Keira Hornung+0.4
3315-18ROBMORROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Layla Todd+0.9
3415-19ROBMORN KY×3KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.8
3515-20N KYN KY×3Bad setKenlee Barnard+0.7
3615-21N KYN KY×3KillEmma Adkinsset Katie Noschang+0.3
3716-21N KYROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+0.1
3816-22ROBMORN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
3917-22N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+0.1
4018-22ROBMORROBMORAttack errEmma Adkins+0.3
4118-23ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
4218-24N KYN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.2
4319-24N KYROBMORKillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard·
4420-24ROBMORROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+0.1
4520-25ROBMORN KYAttack errAddyson Butts+0.2
Set 3
10-1ROBMORN KYServe errRobert Morris+0.7
21-1N KYROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+0.8
31-2ROBMORN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.7
41-3N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
52-3N KYROBMOR×3Attack errIvey Stocks+0.7
63-3ROBMORROBMOR×3KillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+1.2
74-3ROBMORROBMOR×3KillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard+1.5
84-4ROBMORN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
95-4N KYROBMORKillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard+1.1
105-5ROBMORN KYAttack errLauren Decker+1.0
116-5N KYROBMOR×3KillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard+1.2
127-5ROBMORROBMOR×3KillLauren Deckerset Maddie Siphakongviseth+1.9
138-5ROBMORROBMOR×3BlockedIvey Stocksblk Lauren Decker, Keira Hornung+2.2
148-6ROBMORN KYAttack errLauren Decker+1.3
159-6N KYROBMORAttack errAva Hoying+1.7
169-7ROBMORN KYServe errRobert Morris+1.4
179-8N KYN KYKillAva Hoying+1.9
1810-8N KYROBMORBlockedAva Hoyingblk Tia Schultz, Keira Hornung+1.7
1910-9ROBMORN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.4
2010-10N KYN KYBad setKenlee Barnard+1.8
2111-10N KYROBMORAttack errLucia Heid+1.5
2212-10ROBMORROBMORKillLayla Toddset Tia Schultz+2.5
2312-11ROBMORN KY×5KillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+1.5
2412-12N KYN KY×5KillLucia Heidset Emma Adkins+2.1
2512-13N KYN KY×5Attack errAddyson Butts+1.8
2612-14N KYN KY×5KillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.5
2712-15N KYN KY×5KillIvey Stocks+1.2
2813-15N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+0.8
2913-16ROBMORN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.8
3014-16N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+0.9
3114-17ROBMORN KYKillLucia Heidset Emma Adkins+0.9
3215-17N KYROBMORKillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard+0.9
3316-17ROBMORROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+1.8
3416-18ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+1.3
3517-18N KYROBMORServe errNorthern Ky.+1.4
3617-19ROBMORN KY×5KillAva Hoyingset Katie Noschang+1.5
3717-20N KYN KY×5BlockedTia Schultzblk Ava Hoying, Katie Noschang+1.6
3817-21N KYN KY×5BlockedTia Schultzblk Ava Hoying, Katie Noschang+1.0
3917-22N KYN KY×5KillAbbigail Pickardset Kenlee Barnard+0.5
4017-23N KYN KY×5Attack errLauren Decker+0.2
4118-23N KYROBMORServe errNorthern Ky.+0.1
4218-24ROBMORN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+0.1
4318-25N KYN KYBlockedKeira Hornungblk Katie Noschang, Sydney Bray·
Set 4
10-1N KYN KYBad setKenlee Barnard+0.7
20-2N KYN KYBlockedLauren Deckerblk Katie Noschang, Sydney Bray+0.6
31-2N KYROBMOR×7KillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+0.5
42-2ROBMORROBMOR×7AceKenlee Barnardaced Allison Risley+0.8
53-2ROBMORROBMOR×7KillTia Schultzset Kenlee Barnard+1.0
64-2ROBMORROBMOR×7KillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+1.2
75-2ROBMORROBMOR×7Bad setAbbigail Pickard+1.4
86-2ROBMORROBMOR×7BlockedSydney Brayblk Lauren Decker, Keira Hornung+1.5
97-2ROBMORROBMOR×7AceKenlee Barnardaced Allison Risley+1.6
107-3ROBMORN KYKillSydney Brayset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
117-4N KYN KYKillLucia Heidset Abbigail Pickard+1.3
128-4N KYROBMORAttack errAva Hoying+1.2
139-4ROBMORROBMORKillLayla Toddset Anahi Alvarado+1.8
149-5ROBMORN KYServe errLauren Decker+1.0
1510-5N KYROBMORServe errKatie Noschang+1.4
1611-5ROBMORROBMORAttack errIvey Stocks+1.8
1711-6ROBMORN KYAttack errLayla Todd+0.9
1811-7N KYN KYAttack errLayla Todd+1.5
1912-7N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+1.5
2013-7ROBMORROBMORAceMaddie Siphakongvisethaced Emma Adkins+1.9
2113-8ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Emma Adkins+0.9
2214-8N KYROBMORKillAddyson Buttsset Kenlee Barnard+1.5
2314-9ROBMORN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
2415-9N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+1.5
2515-10ROBMORN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
2616-10N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+1.5
2716-11ROBMORN KYAttack errLauren Decker+0.9
2816-12N KYN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
2917-12N KYROBMOR×4KillTia Schultzset Kenlee Barnard+1.7
3018-12ROBMORROBMOR×4AceLauren Decker+2.0
3119-12ROBMORROBMOR×4Attack errLucia Heid+1.6
3220-12ROBMORROBMOR×4BlockedLucia Heidblk Keira Hornung, Tia Schultz+1.1
3320-13ROBMORN KYServe errLauren Decker+0.3
3420-14N KYN KYAceKatie Noschangaced Anahi Alvarado+0.7
3521-14N KYROBMORBlockedLucia Heidblk Tia Schultz, Keira Hornung+1.0
3621-15ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.4
3721-16N KYN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+0.9
3822-16N KYROBMORKillTia Schultzset Kenlee Barnard+1.2
3922-17ROBMORN KY×5Attack errLayla Todd+0.4
4022-18N KYN KY×5Attack errLayla Todd+1.0
4122-19N KYN KY×5KillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+1.6
4222-20N KYN KY×5BlockedLayla Toddblk Ivey Stocks, Abbigail Pickard+2.2
4322-21N KYN KY×5KillAva Hoying+3.0
4423-21N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+3.4
4524-21ROBMORROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+4.1
4624-22ROBMORN KYServe errLayla Todd+1.0
4724-23N KYN KYAceDaisy Cluxton+3.1
4825-23N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+5.2
Set 5
10-1ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+3.7
21-1N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+4.4
31-2ROBMORN KYAttack errLauren Decker+4.0
42-2N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+4.7
53-2ROBMORROBMORAttack errDaisy Cluxton+8.0
63-3ROBMORN KYKillAva Hoyingset Abbigail Pickard+5.1
74-3N KYROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Kenlee Barnard+6.4
85-3ROBMORROBMORAttack errAva Hoying+10.2
95-4ROBMORN KYAttack errKeira Hornung+6.1
105-5N KYN KYAceAbbigail Pickardaced Layla Todd+8.6
116-5N KYROBMORKillLayla Toddset Kenlee Barnard+7.3
126-6ROBMORN KYKillKatie Noschangset Abbigail Pickard+6.2
136-7N KYN KYAttack errTia Schultz+8.3
147-7N KYROBMOR×3Serve errAva Hoying+6.5
158-7ROBMORROBMOR×3AceMaddie Siphakongvisethaced Lucia Heid+11.5
169-7ROBMORROBMOR×3Attack errSydney Bray+13.9
179-8ROBMORN KYBlockedLayla Toddblk Sydney Bray+7.9
189-9N KYN KYBlockedLayla Toddblk Ivey Stocks, Sydney Bray+11.9
1910-9N KYROBMORBlockedIvey Stocksblk Kenlee Barnard+10.5
2010-10ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+9.0
2110-11N KYN KYKillEmma Adkinsset Sydney Bray+12.4
2211-11N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Layla Todd+9.5
2312-11ROBMORROBMORKillKeira Hornungset Lauren Decker+18.5
2412-12ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+11.9
2513-12N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+16.8
2614-12ROBMORROBMORAceKenlee Barnardaced Sydney Bray+27.5
2714-13ROBMORN KYKillIvey Stocksset Abbigail Pickard+10.5
2815-13N KYROBMORKillLauren Deckerset Kenlee Barnard+30.3

Score shown after each rally, Robert Morris first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).