Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 18, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UCF def. West Virginia 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UCF 67.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 18, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UCF beat visiting West Virginia 3-1 (25-21, 18-25, 25-17, 25-22) on Sun, Oct 18, 2026. UCF's Avah Armour led with 22 kills, and Alexa Haley added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 18

Set1234Sets
WVU212517221
UCF251825253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Alexa Haley served 4 aces, and UCF needed every one.

The match turned twice. Numbers are UCF's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had UCF at 67%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · West Virginia 11–15 UCF

    6 straight West Virginia points turned an 11–15 deficit into a 17–15 lead.

    UCF 89% → 74%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · West Virginia 17–18 UCF

    8 straight West Virginia points turned a 17–18 deficit into a 25–18 lead.

    UCF 83% → 64%

UCF above 50West Virginia belowMax swing 6.8%

West VirginiaUCF

Sideout %
West Virginia 48.9·UCF 53.5
Break %
West Virginia 46.5·UCF 51.1
Hitting
West Virginia .218·UCF .293
Longest run
West Virginia 8·UCF 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UCF above 50 · West Virginia below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.8% UCFrally 178 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.8% to UCF — set 4, WVU 21-23 UCF. Macie Smith stuffed by Natasha Casey & Sasha Cohen. UCF win probability 87% → 94%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WVU 31.1%68.9% UCF

West Virginia wins

3-0
6.0%
3-1
11.0%
3-2
14.1%

UCF wins

3-0
22.5%
3-1
26.4%
3-2
19.9%
WVU break %
40.2% vs this opp
UCF break %
43.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Macie Smith stuffed by Natasha Casey & Sasha Cohen

    Set 4 · WVU 21-23 UCF · UCF 87% → 94%

  2. 02
    Macie SmithKill+6.4%

    Kill by Macie Smith (set by Alexis Finnvold)

    Set 4 · WVU 21-21 UCF · WVU 12% → 18%

  3. 03
    Nina HorningAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Nina Horning

    Set 4 · WVU 22-24 UCF · UCF 91% → 96%

  4. 04
    Nygeria HartKill+5.1%

    Kill by Nygeria Hart (set by Mikayla Porter)

    Set 4 · WVU 21-22 UCF · UCF 82% → 87%

  5. 05

    Macie Smith stuffed by Natasha Casey & Sasha Cohen

    Set 1 · WVU 19-21 UCF · UCF 70% → 75%

  6. 06
    Nina HorningAce+4.5%

    Ace by Nina Horning on Alexa Haley

    Set 1 · WVU 19-19 UCF · WVU 29% → 33%

  7. 07

    Kiki Horne stuffed by Trinity Sheridan & Cami Huff

    Set 4 · WVU 19-20 UCF · WVU 8% → 12%

  8. 08

    Ace by Lauren Duncan

    Set 4 · WVU 15-15 UCF · WVU 13% → 18%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410428.21401234111.512.5
48525.12011132031.510.5
49425.200000100009
47313.30800010031.58.5
4305.60000020153.56.5
4011-1.0002201600000
44210.200000100426
4102.5001133200004
41011.000100500001
4000–000000000
4000–3001820000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4319110.218385742112161085
UCFhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422542.40500411100022
47416.1880332004212
47111.545000000429
48111.636000100008
4113.000122200003
4106.16743021100001
48829.000200301019
4000–4411320004
4204.500000010002
4000–020100002
2001.000001100000
Team totals5620123.29350111345518593

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

West Virginia vs UCF

Season series · UCF leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 WVU · UCF 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 5 WVUUCF 5

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 8 WVUUCF 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 WVUUCF 5

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 3 WVUUCF 4

Bars above the line = UCF leads, below = West Virginia leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

West Virginia

SlotSideout %Break %
1
35%9/26
30%3/10
2
56%9/16
25%3/12
3
57%8/14
44%7/16
4
70%7/10
68%15/22
5
41%7/17
53%8/15
6
56%5/9
36%4/11
All
49%45/92
47%40/86

UCF

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
59%10/17
2
64%9/14
50%9/18
3
44%8/18
56%10/18
4
32%7/22
38%5/13
5
64%7/11
42%5/12
6
67%6/9
57%8/14
All
53%46/86
51%47/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

178 rallies

#WVU-UCFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UCFUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.2
21-1UCFWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+1.6
31-2WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.6
42-2UCFWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+1.6
52-3WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.6
62-4UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+2.2
73-4UCFWVU×5KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+1.5
84-4WVUWVU×5KillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+2.4
95-4WVUWVU×5AceLauren Duncanaced Avah Armour+2.6
106-4WVUWVU×5Attack errAvah Armour+2.7
117-4WVUWVU×5AceLauren Duncanaced Nygeria Hart+2.7
127-5WVUUCFServe errLauren Duncan+1.7
137-6UCFUCFAceReese Mooreaced Nina Horning+2.6
148-6UCFWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+2.0
158-7WVUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+1.9
168-8UCFUCFKillKiki Horneset Alexa Haley+2.8
179-8UCFWVUServe errMikayla Porter+2.1
189-9WVUUCF×4KillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+2.0
199-10UCFUCF×4KillAvah Armour+2.9
209-11UCFUCF×4AceFallon Stewartaced Macie Smith+2.7
219-12UCFUCF×4AceFallon Stewart+2.5
2210-12UCFWVUKillMacie Smithset Lauren Duncan+1.6
2310-13WVUUCFServe errAlexis Finnvold+1.7
2410-14UCFUCFAceAlexa Haleyaced Nina Horning+2.1
2511-14UCFWVUKillCami Huffset Alexis Finnvold+1.3
2611-15WVUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+1.5
2712-15UCFWVUKillNina Horningset Reagan Turk+1.3
2812-16WVUUCFKillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+1.5
2913-16UCFWVUKillCassie Bruns+1.3
3014-16WVUWVUBad setMikayla Porter+2.4
3114-17WVUUCF×3Serve errLauren Duncan+2.0
3214-18UCFUCF×3AceReese Mooreaced Nina Horning+2.3
3314-19UCFUCF×3Attack errMaddy McGath+1.7
3415-19UCFWVU×5Attack errKiki Horne+0.8
3516-19WVUWVU×5BlockedKiki Horneblk Trinity Sheridan, Maddy McGath+1.7
3617-19WVUWVU×5Attack errKiki Horne+2.5
3718-19WVUWVU×5Attack errKiki Horne+3.5
3819-19WVUWVU×5AceNina Horningaced Alexa Haley+4.5
3919-20WVUUCF×5Serve errNina Horning+3.4
4019-21UCFUCF×5BlockedMacie Smithblk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen+4.6
4119-22UCFUCF×5Attack errTrinity Sheridan+3.6
4219-23UCFUCF×5KillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.2
4319-24UCFUCF×5KillKiki Horneset Alexa Haley+0.9
4420-24UCFWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+0.2
4521-24WVUWVUBlockedSasha Cohenblk Cami Huff+0.5
4621-25WVUUCFAttack errTrinity Sheridan+0.9
Set 2
10-1WVUUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+1.3
20-2UCFUCF×3Attack errAnna Barr+1.8
30-3UCFUCF×3Attack errMacie Smith+1.7
41-3UCFWVUServe errAlexa Haley+1.1
52-3WVUWVUAttack errFallon Stewart+1.8
62-4WVUUCF×3Attack errAnna Barr+1.3
72-5UCFUCF×3AceNatasha Caseyaced Reagan Turk+1.8
82-6UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.6
93-6UCFWVUBad setMikayla Porter+1.0
103-7WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.1
114-7UCFWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+1.0
124-8WVUUCFServe errLauren Duncan+1.1
135-8UCFWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+1.0
145-9WVUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+1.1
155-10UCFUCFKillSasha Cohen+1.4
166-10UCFWVU×3KillMaddy McGathset Lauren Duncan+0.8
177-10WVUWVU×3BlockedNatasha Caseyblk Macie Smith, Cami Huff+1.5
188-10WVUWVU×3Bad setMikayla Porter+1.8
198-11WVUUCFBlockedMacie Smithblk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen+1.4
209-11UCFWVUServe errFallon Stewart+1.3
219-12WVUUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.4
229-13UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.8
239-14UCFUCF×3AceAlexa Haleyaced Reagan Turk+1.4
2410-14UCFWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+0.8
2511-14WVUWVUAceMacie Smithaced Alexa Haley+1.5
2611-15WVUUCFKillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+1.3
2712-15UCFWVU×6KillCami Huffset Alexis Finnvold+1.1
2813-15WVUWVU×6KillAnna Barrset Reagan Turk+2.0
2914-15WVUWVU×6KillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+2.5
3015-15WVUWVU×6KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+3.0
3116-15WVUWVU×6Attack errAvah Armour+3.3
3217-15WVUWVU×6KillMaddy McGathset Alexa Haley+3.4
3317-16WVUUCF×3Attack errAnna Barr+2.1
3417-17UCFUCF×3KillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+3.4
3517-18UCFUCF×3KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+3.5
3618-18UCFWVU×8Serve errAvah Armour+2.5
3719-18WVUWVU×8KillMaddy McGath+4.0
3820-18WVUWVU×8KillNina Horning+4.2
3921-18WVUWVU×8KillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+3.7
4022-18WVUWVU×8Attack errKiki Horne+2.8
4123-18WVUWVU×8BlockedKiki Horneblk Maddy McGath, Trinity Sheridan+1.6
4224-18WVUWVU×8BlockedElla Chapmanblk Nina Horning+0.6
4325-18WVUWVU×8Attack errAvah Armour+0.1
Set 3
10-1UCFUCFKillAvah Armourset Reagan Turk+3.1
20-2UCFUCFAceAlexa Haleyaced Nina Horning+3.0
31-2UCFWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
41-3WVUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+2.1
52-3UCFWVU×3KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
63-3WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+3.3
74-3WVUWVU×3KillNina Horningset Reagan Turk+3.5
84-4WVUUCFAttack errNina Horning+2.4
95-4UCFWVUKillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+2.6
105-5WVUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+2.4
116-5UCFWVUKillMaddy McGathset Lauren Duncan+2.6
127-5WVUWVUKillMacie Smithset Lauren Duncan+3.9
137-6WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.5
148-6UCFWVUServe errMikayla Porter+2.8
158-7WVUUCFKillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.6
169-7UCFWVUBlockedAvah Armourblk Trinity Sheridan, Cami Huff+2.9
179-8WVUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+2.6
189-9UCFUCFAttack errAnna Barr+4.0
1910-9UCFWVUBlockedNatasha Caseyblk Cami Huff, Macie Smith+3.0
2010-10WVUUCFServe errMacie Smith+2.8
2110-11UCFUCFKillElla Chapman+4.1
2211-11UCFWVUServe errNatasha Casey+2.9
2311-12WVUUCF×4KillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+2.9
2411-13UCFUCF×4KillMikayla Porterset Kiki Horne+4.1
2511-14UCFUCF×4BlockedMaddy McGathblk Kiki Horne+3.6
2611-15UCFUCF×4KillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+3.0
2712-15UCFWVUServe errAvah Armour+1.8
2812-16WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Kiki Horne+2.1
2913-16UCFWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Macie Smith+1.8
3013-17WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.2
3114-17UCFWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+1.7
3214-18WVUUCFKillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+2.2
3315-18UCFWVUServe errFallon Stewart+1.7
3415-19WVUUCF×5KillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.2
3515-20UCFUCF×5Attack errAlexis Finnvold+2.2
3615-21UCFUCF×5Attack errMacie Smith+1.3
3715-22UCFUCF×5KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+0.6
3815-23UCFUCF×5KillAvah Armour+0.2
3916-23UCFWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold·
4016-24WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Fallon Stewart+0.1
4117-24UCFWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold·
4217-25WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter·
Set 4
11-0WVUWVU×3KillCami Huffset Alexis Finnvold+2.9
22-0WVUWVU×3KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+3.0
33-0WVUWVU×3BlockedNatasha Caseyblk Nina Horning, Maddy McGath+3.0
43-1WVUUCF×4KillFallon Stewartset Mikayla Porter+1.9
53-2UCFUCF×4KillElla Chapman+2.9
63-3UCFUCF×4KillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+3.0
73-4UCFUCF×4AceAlexa Haley+2.9
84-4UCFWVUKillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
94-5WVUUCFKillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+2.1
104-6UCFUCFKillElla Chapmanset Mikayla Porter+2.9
115-6UCFWVUServe errUCF+2.0
125-7WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.0
136-7UCFWVUServe errUCF+2.0
147-7WVUWVUKillMacie Smithset Cassie Bruns+3.2
157-8WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.2
168-8UCFWVU×3KillLauren Duncanset Mikayla Porter+2.3
179-8WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+3.6
1810-8WVUWVU×3Bad setMikayla Porter+3.7
1910-9WVUUCF×4KillSasha Cohenset Mikayla Porter+2.4
2010-10UCFUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+3.6
2110-11UCFUCF×4KillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+3.6
2210-12UCFUCF×4KillKiki Horneset Mikayla Porter+3.4
2311-12UCFWVUBlockedNatasha Caseyblk Cami Huff, Macie Smith+2.3
2412-12WVUWVUAttack errKiki Horne+3.8
2512-13WVUUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+2.7
2613-13UCFWVUAttack errAvah Armour+2.8
2713-14WVUUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Mikayla Porter+2.8
2813-15UCFUCFAttack errNina Horning+3.8
2914-15UCFWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+2.5
3015-15WVUWVUAceLauren Duncan+4.3
3115-16WVUUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+3.1
3215-17UCFUCF×4AceNatasha Caseyaced Macie Smith+4.2
3315-18UCFUCF×4AceNatasha Casey+3.7
3415-19UCFUCF×4Attack errMaddy McGath+2.8
3516-19UCFWVUServe errNatasha Casey+1.5
3616-20WVUUCFServe errNina Horning+2.0
3717-20UCFWVU×3Serve errAvah Armour+1.4
3818-20WVUWVU×3KillMacie Smithset Lauren Duncan+3.0
3919-20WVUWVU×3BlockedKiki Horneblk Trinity Sheridan, Cami Huff+4.4
4019-21WVUUCFKillNygeria Hartset Mikayla Porter+3.8
4120-21UCFWVUServe errChloe Albiez+3.2
4221-21WVUWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+6.4
4321-22WVUUCFKillNygeria Hartset Mikayla Porter+5.1
4421-23UCFUCFBlockedMacie Smithblk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen+6.8
4522-23UCFWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+3.4
4622-24WVUUCFAttack errNina Horning+5.4
4722-25UCFUCFBlockedNina Horningblk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey+4.0

Score shown after each rally, West Virginia first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).