Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

West Virginia def. Arizona 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: West Virginia 58.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

West Virginia beat visiting Arizona 3-1 (23-25, 25-15, 25-21, 25-17) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. West Virginia's Nina Horning led with 20 kills, and Reagan Turk added 22 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set1234Sets
ARIZ251521171
WVU232525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.486 on 35 swings: Nina Horning and West Virginia edged Arizona.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows West Virginia's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. West Virginia went in as RallyIQ's 59% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Arizona 9–13 West Virginia

    Arizona scored 6 straight to turn a 9–13 deficit into a 15–13 lead.

    West Virginia 69% → 51%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 1 · Arizona 22–22 West Virginia

    Arizona won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Arizona.

    West Virginia 56% → 38%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 3 · Arizona 21–21 West Virginia

    West Virginia closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–21 and lead 2–1.

    West Virginia 54% → 79%

West Virginia above 50Arizona belowMax swing 10.5%

ArizonaWest Virginia

Sideout %
Arizona 52.6·West Virginia 65.8
Break %
Arizona 34.2·West Virginia 47.4
Hitting
Arizona .278·West Virginia .374
Longest run
Arizona 6·West Virginia 9

Nina Horning
3 kills inside the turning points, 20 K and .486 for the match (21 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

West Virginia above 50 · Arizona below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.5% ARIZrally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.5% to Arizona — set 1, ARIZ 25-23 WVU. Kill by Destiny Ndam-Simpson (set by Harmony Sample). WVU win probability 49% → 38%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ARIZ 37.8%62.2% WVU

Arizona wins

3-0
8.0%
3-1
13.7%
3-2
16.1%

West Virginia wins

3-0
18.4%
3-1
23.8%
3-2
20.0%
ARIZ break %
40.5% vs this opp
WVU break %
42.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Destiny Ndam-Simpson (set by Harmony Sample)

    Set 1 · ARIZ 25-23 WVU · ARIZ 51% → 62%

  2. 02
    Nina HorningKill+8.9%

    Kill by Nina Horning (set by Alexis Finnvold)

    Set 3 · ARIZ 21-22 WVU · WVU 54% → 63%

  3. 03
    Nina HorningKill+8.4%

    Kill by Nina Horning (set by Alexis Finnvold)

    Set 3 · ARIZ 21-23 WVU · WVU 63% → 71%

  4. 04

    Kill by Destiny Ndam-Simpson (set by Harmony Sample)

    Set 1 · ARIZ 24-23 WVU · ARIZ 44% → 51%

  5. 05

    Kill by Trinity Sheridan (set by Reagan Turk)

    Set 1 · ARIZ 22-22 WVU · WVU 50% → 56%

  6. 06
    Maddy McGathKill+6.5%

    Kill by Maddy McGath (set by Alexis Finnvold)

    Set 3 · ARIZ 19-19 WVU · WVU 48% → 54%

  7. 07

    Kill by Carlie Cisneros (set by Harmony Sample)

    Set 1 · ARIZ 22-20 WVU · ARIZ 48% → 54%

  8. 08
    ArizonaAce+5.9%

    Arizona ace on Macie Smith

    Set 3 · ARIZ 18-16 WVU · ARIZ 50% → 55%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415441.26802112000017
410537.135022116010.512.5
410224.33300020010.510.5
47115.40000011010.57.5
4214.250412290010.54.5
3407.57100100010.54.5
4000–311420001
4000–2021100000
3000–011100001
2204.50000100010.52.5
1001.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5013133.2784681151906378
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420335.4860043202121
415027.5561309500018
49227.2590002002110
46214.28623120010.59.5
4327.14300000052.55.5
4102.500290060010.51.5
410326.26900030010.510.5
4001.0002023800002
4000–210700001
4000–4002210000
2000–100200000
Team totals6412139.3745998648012698

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 ARIZ · WVU 9

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 6 ARIZWVU 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 ARIZWVU 9

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 ARIZWVU 5

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 3 ARIZWVU 4

Bars above the line = West Virginia leads, below = Arizona leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Arizona

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
40%6/15
2
64%9/14
38%6/16
3
53%9/17
18%2/11
4
44%8/18
36%5/14
5
44%8/18
38%5/13
6
64%7/11
30%3/10
All
53%51/97
34%27/79

West Virginia

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
20%2/10
2
56%9/16
53%10/19
3
90%9/10
44%7/16
4
64%9/14
40%6/15
5
57%8/14
65%15/23
6
88%7/8
43%6/14
All
66%52/79
47%46/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#ARIZ-WVUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ARIZWVU×4KillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+1.7
20-2WVUWVU×4KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+2.4
30-3WVUWVU×4AceWest Virginiaaced Carlie Cisneros+2.3
40-4WVUWVU×4KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
51-4WVUARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+1.3
62-4ARIZARIZKillMarina Vosloo+2.2
72-5ARIZWVUServe errArizona+1.7
83-5WVUARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+1.6
93-6ARIZWVUKillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+1.7
103-7WVUWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+2.2
114-7WVUARIZ×3KillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+1.4
125-7ARIZARIZ×3BlockedMaddy McGathblk Journey Tucker, Carlie Cisneros+2.3
136-7ARIZARIZ×3Attack errNina Horning+2.6
146-8ARIZWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+1.9
156-9WVUWVUKillMacie Smithset Lauren Duncan+2.6
167-9WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+1.7
178-9ARIZARIZAceArizonaaced Macie Smith+2.7
188-10ARIZWVU×3Serve errArizona+2.1
198-11WVUWVU×3KillTrinity Sheridanset Maddy McGath+2.7
208-12WVUWVU×3KillMacie Smith+2.4
219-12WVUARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+1.5
229-13ARIZWVUServe errArizona+1.7
2310-13WVUARIZ×6KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+1.5
2411-13ARIZARIZ×6AceArizonaaced Nina Horning+2.6
2512-13ARIZARIZ×6Attack errCami Huff+3.0
2613-13ARIZARIZ×6KillHarmony Sampleset Alexis Finnvold+3.5
2714-13ARIZARIZ×6KillKennedy Osunsanmiset Gigi Whann+3.7
2815-13ARIZARIZ×6KillDestiny Ndam-Simpson+3.8
2915-14ARIZWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+2.4
3015-15WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+3.8
3115-16WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+4.0
3216-16WVUARIZ×4KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.8
3317-16ARIZARIZ×4AceArizonaaced Nina Horning+4.3
3418-16ARIZARIZ×4Attack errAnna Barr+4.4
3519-16ARIZARIZ×4KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+4.0
3619-17ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+2.2
3720-17WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+3.0
3820-18ARIZWVU×3Serve errArizona+2.2
3920-19WVUWVU×3AceWest Virginiaaced Journey Tucker+4.2
4020-20WVUWVU×3KillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+5.3
4121-20WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+4.3
4222-20ARIZARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+6.0
4322-21ARIZWVUBad setBrenna Ginder+3.3
4422-22WVUWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Reagan Turk+6.5
4523-22WVUARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Brenna Ginder+5.7
4623-23ARIZWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+5.4
4724-23WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+7.2
4825-23ARIZARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+10.5
Set 2
11-0WVUARIZBlockedNina Horningblk Marina Vosloo, Kennedy Osunsanmi+2.0
21-1ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+1.9
31-2WVUWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.8
42-2WVUARIZKillMarina Voslooset Harmony Sample+2.0
52-3ARIZWVUKillCami Huffset Destiny Ndam-Simpson+2.0
62-4WVUWVUAttack errKennedy Osunsanmi+2.7
73-4WVUARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+1.9
84-4ARIZARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+2.9
94-5ARIZWVU×3KillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.1
104-6WVUWVU×3KillMaddy McGathset Lauren Duncan+2.9
114-7WVUWVU×3AceWest Virginiaaced Brenna Ginder+2.7
125-7WVUARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+1.8
135-8ARIZWVU×9KillMacie Smithset Cassie Bruns+1.9
145-9WVUWVU×9Attack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+2.5
155-10WVUWVU×9AceWest Virginiaaced Carlie Cisneros+2.1
165-11WVUWVU×9KillNina Horningset Reagan Turk+1.7
175-12WVUWVU×9KillMaddy McGathset Lauren Duncan+1.3
185-13WVUWVU×9AceWest Virginiaaced Carlie Cisneros+1.0
195-14WVUWVU×9BlockedDestiny Ndam-Simpsonblk Maddy McGath, Trinity Sheridan+0.7
205-15WVUWVU×9KillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+0.4
215-16WVUWVU×9KillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+0.2
226-16WVUARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+0.1
236-17ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+0.1
247-17WVUARIZKillMarina Voslooset Harmony Sample+0.1
257-18ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+0.1
268-18WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+0.1
278-19ARIZWVUKillCami Huffset Alexis Finnvold+0.1
289-19WVUARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample·
2910-19ARIZARIZAceArizonaaced Macie Smith+0.1
3010-20ARIZWVUBlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Cami Huff, Anna Barr+0.1
3110-21WVUWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+0.1
3211-21WVUARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample·
3311-22ARIZWVUKillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold·
3412-22WVUARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Brenna Ginder·
3513-22ARIZARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample·
3613-23ARIZWVUKillMacie Smithset Lauren Duncan·
3714-23WVUARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample·
3814-24ARIZWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan·
3915-24WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample·
4015-25ARIZWVUBlockedKennedy Osunsanmiblk Nina Horning, Cami Huff·
Set 3
10-1ARIZWVU×3Serve errArizona+2.3
20-2WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Maddy McGath+3.2
30-3WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+3.0
41-3WVUARIZAttack errMaddy McGath+2.0
52-3ARIZARIZAceArizonaaced Reagan Turk+3.2
62-4ARIZWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.4
72-5WVUWVUAttack errCarlie Cisneros+3.2
83-5WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+2.1
93-6ARIZWVUKillMacie Smithset Lauren Duncan+2.3
104-6WVUARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+2.1
115-6ARIZARIZAceArizonaaced Macie Smith+3.4
125-7ARIZWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+2.5
136-7WVUARIZKillMarina Voslooset Harmony Sample+2.5
146-8ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+2.6
157-8WVUARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+2.5
167-9ARIZWVUServe errArizona+2.7
178-9WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+2.6
188-10ARIZWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.8
199-10WVUARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+2.7
209-11ARIZWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.8
2110-11WVUARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+2.7
2210-12ARIZWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Lauren Duncan+2.9
2311-12WVUARIZAttack errTrinity Sheridan+2.8
2411-13ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+3.1
2511-14WVUWVUAceWest Virginiaaced Carlie Cisneros+4.0
2612-14WVUARIZ×4Attack errTrinity Sheridan+2.5
2713-14ARIZARIZ×4Attack errTrinity Sheridan+4.2
2814-14ARIZARIZ×4BlockedCami Huffblk Kristen Dear, Harmony Sample+4.8
2915-14ARIZARIZ×4KillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+5.2
3015-15ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+3.6
3116-15WVUARIZKillKristen Dearset Harmony Sample+3.9
3216-16ARIZWVUServe errArizona+3.8
3317-16WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+4.1
3418-16ARIZARIZAceArizonaaced Macie Smith+5.9
3518-17ARIZWVUServe errArizona+3.7
3619-17WVUARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+4.5
3719-18ARIZWVUKillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+3.8
3819-19WVUWVUKillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+6.5
3920-19WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+5.2
4020-20ARIZWVUServe errArizona+5.0
4121-20WVUARIZKillCarlie Cisnerosset Harmony Sample+5.7
4221-21ARIZWVU×5KillAlexis Finnvoldset Eily Painter+5.5
4321-22WVUWVU×5KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+8.9
4421-23WVUWVU×5KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+8.4
4521-24WVUWVU×5KillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+5.7
4621-25WVUWVU×5BlockedCarlie Cisnerosblk Alexis Finnvold, Cami Huff+2.1
Set 4
11-0WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+2.2
22-0ARIZARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+3.2
32-1ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Macie Smith+2.2
42-2WVUWVUBlockedDestiny Ndam-Simpsonblk Cami Huff, Anna Barr+3.2
53-2WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+2.3
64-2ARIZARIZAttack errAnna Barr+3.4
74-3ARIZWVU×4KillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.2
84-4WVUWVU×4KillMaddy McGathset Alexis Finnvold+3.3
94-5WVUWVU×4Attack errCarlie Cisneros+3.4
104-6WVUWVU×4KillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+3.3
115-6WVUARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+2.2
125-7ARIZWVUKillMacie Smithset Alexis Finnvold+2.4
135-8WVUWVUAttack errJourney Tucker+3.1
146-8WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+2.1
156-9ARIZWVUServe errBrenna Ginder+2.3
167-9WVUARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+2.1
177-10ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+2.3
187-11WVUWVUAttack errDestiny Ndam-Simpson+2.9
198-11WVUARIZKillDestiny Ndam-Simpsonset Harmony Sample+1.8
208-12ARIZWVU×3KillNina Horningset Reagan Turk+2.1
218-13WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Reagan Turk+2.5
228-14WVUWVU×3KillAnna Barrset Alexis Finnvold+1.9
239-14WVUARIZKillKristen Dearset Harmony Sample+1.0
249-15ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+1.3
2510-15WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+1.0
2610-16ARIZWVUKillCami Huffset Alexis Finnvold+1.3
2711-16WVUARIZKillKennedy Osunsanmiset Harmony Sample+0.9
2811-17ARIZWVUAttack errCarlie Cisneros+1.3
2912-17WVUARIZKillJourney Tuckerset Harmony Sample+0.9
3012-18ARIZWVUKillTrinity Sheridanset Cassie Bruns+1.2
3113-18WVUARIZ×3KillCarlie Cisnerosset Gigi Whann+0.8
3214-18ARIZARIZ×3Attack errNina Horning+1.7
3315-18ARIZARIZ×3AceCarlie Cisnerosaced Macie Smith+2.5
3415-19ARIZWVU×4Serve errCarlie Cisneros+2.4
3515-20WVUWVU×4AceWest Virginiaaced Brenna Ginder+2.4
3615-21WVUWVU×4BlockedHarmony Sampleblk Cami Huff, Nina Horning+1.4
3715-22WVUWVU×4AceWest Virginiaaced Carlie Cisneros+0.7
3816-22WVUARIZServe errWest Virginia+0.2
3916-23ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Lauren Duncan+0.4
4017-23WVUARIZKillHarmony Sampleset Brenna Ginder+0.1
4117-24ARIZWVUKillNina Horningset Alexis Finnvold+0.2
4217-25WVUWVUAceWest Virginiaaced Carlie Cisneros+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Arizona first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).