FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

HomeBIG-EAST

Hofstra def. UConn 3–0

(25-23, 25-11, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOFSTR	25	25	25	3
UCONN	23	11	14	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UCONN above 50 · HOFSTR below

Biggest swing: 7.9% to Hofstra — set 1, HOFSTR 25-23 UCONN. Kill by Maria Afonso (set by Beatriz Braga). UCONN win probability 25% → 17%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOFSTR 70.3%29.7% UCONN

Hofstra wins

3-0

23.5%

3-1

27.0%

3-2

19.8%

UConn wins

3-0

5.6%

3-1

10.4%

3-2

13.6%

HOFSTR break %: 45.1% vs this opp
UCONN break %: 41.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Maria AfonsoKill+7.9%
Kill by Maria Afonso (set by Beatriz Braga)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 25-23 UCONN · HOFSTR 75% → 83%
02
Courtney GraysonKill+6.6%
Kill by Courtney Grayson (set by Isabella Sohl)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 23-23 UCONN · UCONN 25% → 31%
03
Maria AfonsoKill+6.5%
Kill by Maria Afonso (set by Ellie Pamatat)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 24-23 UCONN · HOFSTR 69% → 75%
04
UCONN serverService error+3.9%
UConn service error
Set 1 · HOFSTR 23-21 UCONN · HOFSTR 74% → 78%
05
Constanza Perez SainAttack error+3.8%
Attack error by Constanza Perez Sain
Set 1 · HOFSTR 22-21 UCONN · UCONN 22% → 26%
06
Sydney BorowyAttack error+3.4%
Sydney Borowy stuffed by Dawn Pena & Julia Amorim
Set 1 · HOFSTR 16-15 UCONN · HOFSTR 68% → 72%
07
Geovanna Gonçalves RochaAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha
Set 1 · HOFSTR 13-14 UCONN · UCONN 31% → 34%
08
Beatriz BragaKill+3.2%
Kill by Beatriz Braga (set by Sonja Rundcrantz)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 17-15 UCONN · HOFSTR 72% → 75%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Hofstraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Beatriz BragaOH	3	14	6	25	.320	1	2	4	10	1	0	1	0.5	16.5
21Constanza Perez SainOH	3	7	3	21	.190	0	0	1	2	0	2	4	4	11
3Maria AfonsoOH	3	7	0	17	.412	0	1	2	5	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
19Julia AmorimMB	3	6	0	9	.667	2	1	1	2	0	0	4	2	9
16Geovanna Gonçalves RochaOH	3	3	3	12	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
11Ellie PamatatS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	0	12	0	0	0	0	1
2Dawn PenaOH	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
22Lauren KonzenDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
5Nil KayaalpL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
6Sonja RundcrantzS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	13	95	.305	42	5	9	51	1	3	18	12	75

UConnhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Courtney GraysonMB	3	5	2	10	.300	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
12Helena EinarsdottirOH	3	4	2	26	.077	0	1	1	4	0	1	0.5	5.5
15Grace MariaOH	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	4
14Maja DacaOH	3	3	5	17	-.118	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	3
4Isabella SohlS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	2	4	0	0	0	0
5Olivia GrenadierMB	2	0	1	6	-.167	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1
11Sydney BorowyOH	3	7	4	19	.158	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
8Audrey JensenS	3	0	0	3	.000	7	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
3Hazuna AkishigeL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	2	0	0	10	1	0	0	0
2Maggie CarleyS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
13Jordyn HughesMB	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Olivia PasternakOH	1	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Isabella SuhyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	20	103	.049	21	1	8	32	5	9	4.5	48

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 HOFSTR · UCONN 4

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 6 HOFSTRUCONN 4

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 7 HOFSTRUCONN 3

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 5 HOFSTRUCONN 2

Bars above the line = UConn leads, below = Hofstra leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Hofstra

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	71%15/21
2	75%6/8	50%6/12
3	67%6/9	54%7/13
4	83%5/6	29%2/7
5	71%5/7	44%4/9
6	45%5/11	55%6/11
All	70%35/50	55%40/73

UConn

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	29%7/24	30%3/10
2	67%6/9	22%2/9
3	50%5/10	25%2/8
4	56%5/9	29%2/7
5	45%5/11	17%1/6
6	50%5/10	50%5/10
All	45%33/73	30%15/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	HOFSTR-UCONN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.5
2	1-1	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Grace Maria		+1.6
3	2-1	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.6
4	3-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Maja Daca	blk Constanza Perez Sain	+2.0
5	3-2	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+1.5
6	3-3	UCONN	UCONN	Ace	UCONN server	aced Beatriz Braga	+2.2
7	4-3	UCONN	HOFSTR	Serve err	UCONN server		+1.7
8	4-4	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+1.7
9	5-4	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.7
10	6-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.2
11	6-5	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Audrey Jensen	+1.6
12	7-5	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.7
13	7-6	HOFSTR	UCONN×4	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+1.7
14	7-7	UCONN	UCONN×4	Kill	Sydney Borowy		+2.5
15	7-8	UCONN	UCONN×4	Kill	Sydney Borowy	set Hazuna Akishige	+2.7
16	7-9	UCONN	UCONN×4	Attack err	Dawn Pena	blk Olivia Grenadier, Sydney Borowy	+2.8
17	8-9	UCONN	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Nil Kayaalp	+1.9
18	9-9	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.7
19	10-9	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.6
20	10-10	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Sydney Borowy	set Isabella Sohl	+2.1
21	11-10	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.0
22	11-11	HOFSTR	UCONN	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+2.1
23	12-11	UCONN	HOFSTR	Serve err	UCONN server		+2.1
24	12-12	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+2.2
25	13-12	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.2
26	13-13	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Audrey Jensen	+2.3
27	13-14	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha		+3.3
28	14-14	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.4
29	14-15	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+2.7
30	15-15	UCONN	HOFSTR×6	Attack err	Sydney Borowy	blk Dawn Pena, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+2.5
31	16-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×6	Attack err	Sydney Borowy	blk Dawn Pena, Julia Amorim	+3.4
32	17-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×6	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+3.2
33	18-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×6	Attack err	Helena Einarsdottir		+2.8
34	19-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×6	Attack err	Sydney Borowy	blk Dawn Pena, Julia Amorim	+2.2
35	20-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×6	Attack err	Olivia Grenadier		+1.5
36	20-16	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Maja Daca	set Isabella Sohl	+0.8
37	20-17	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+1.6
38	21-17	UCONN	HOFSTR	Serve err	UCONN server		+1.7
39	21-18	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Maja Daca	set Isabella Sohl	+1.1
40	21-19	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+2.4
41	22-19	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.5
42	22-20	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+1.8
43	22-21	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+3.8
44	23-21	UCONN	HOFSTR	Serve err	UCONN server		+3.9
45	23-22	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Isabella Sohl	+2.9
46	23-23	UCONN	UCONN	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Isabella Sohl	+6.6
47	24-23	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+6.5
48	25-23	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Beatriz Braga	+7.9
Set 2
1	1-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Attack err	Hazuna Akishige		+1.7
2	2-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.6
3	3-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Hazuna Akishige	+1.5
4	4-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Attack err	Maja Daca	blk Constanza Perez Sain	+1.3
5	5-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Nil Kayaalp	+1.2
6	6-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Attack err	Maja Daca		+1.0
7	7-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×7	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.8
8	7-1	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Grace Maria	set Isabella Sohl	+0.5
9	8-1	UCONN	HOFSTR	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.6
10	8-2	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.5
11	9-2	UCONN	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.6
12	10-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Olivia Pasternak		+0.6
13	11-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Julia Amorim	+0.4
14	12-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Olivia Pasternak		+0.3
15	13-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Maja Daca	blk Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha, Constanza Perez Sain	+0.2
16	13-3	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Courtney Grayson	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.1
17	13-4	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	blk Courtney Grayson, Sydney Borowy, Audrey Jensen	+0.2
18	14-4	UCONN	HOFSTR	Attack err	Sydney Borowy	blk Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha, Constanza Perez Sain	+0.2
19	15-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Courtney Grayson	blk Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha, Maria Afonso	+0.2
20	15-5	HOFSTR	UCONN	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+0.1
21	16-5	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
22	17-5	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
23	17-6	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Sydney Borowy	set Audrey Jensen	+0.0
24	17-7	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+0.1
25	18-7	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
26	19-7	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
27	19-8	HOFSTR	UCONN×3	Kill	Jordyn Hughes	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
28	19-9	UCONN	UCONN×3	Kill	Maja Daca	set Hazuna Akishige	+0.0
29	19-10	UCONN	UCONN×3	Kill	Jordyn Hughes		+0.1
30	20-10	UCONN	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
31	21-10	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Jordyn Hughes		+0.0
32	22-10	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Maja Daca	blk Julia Amorim, Constanza Perez Sain	+0.0
33	23-10	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Nil Kayaalp	+0.0
34	24-10	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Nil Kayaalp	+0.0
35	24-11	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
36	25-11	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Julia Amorim	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	UCONN	HOFSTR×3	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.7
2	2-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Grace Maria	+0.9
3	3-0	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.8
4	3-1	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.6
5	3-2	UCONN	UCONN	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+0.9
6	4-2	UCONN	HOFSTR	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.7
7	5-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Maja Daca	+0.9
8	5-3	HOFSTR	UCONN	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	blk Helena Einarsdottir, Courtney Grayson	+0.6
9	6-3	UCONN	HOFSTR	Attack err	Helena Einarsdottir	blk Maria Afonso	+0.7
10	6-4	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.7
11	7-4	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.7
12	7-5	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Sydney Borowy	set Audrey Jensen	+0.7
13	7-6	UCONN	UCONN	Kill	Sydney Borowy	set Audrey Jensen	+1.0
14	8-6	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.8
15	8-7	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Sydney Borowy	set Audrey Jensen	+0.8
16	9-7	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.8
17	10-7	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Nil Kayaalp	+1.0
18	10-8	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Grace Maria	set Isabella Sohl	+0.7
19	11-8	UCONN	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Grace Maria	blk Beatriz Braga, Julia Amorim	+0.8
20	12-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Grace Maria	+0.9
21	13-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Nil Kayaalp	+0.7
22	14-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.6
23	15-8	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Grace Maria		+0.4
24	15-9	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.2
25	16-9	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.3
26	17-9	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Courtney Grayson	blk Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha, Constanza Perez Sain	+0.3
27	17-10	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.1
28	18-10	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.2
29	18-11	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Grace Maria	set Audrey Jensen	+0.1
30	19-11	UCONN	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Nil Kayaalp	+0.2
31	20-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Grace Maria	+0.1
32	21-11	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
33	21-12	HOFSTR	UCONN	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.0
34	22-12	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
35	22-13	HOFSTR	UCONN	Kill	Helena Einarsdottir	set Isabella Sohl	+0.0
36	23-13	UCONN	HOFSTR	Serve err	UCONN server		+0.0
37	24-13	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0
38	24-14	HOFSTR	UCONN	Attack err	Beatriz Braga	blk Olivia Grenadier, Sydney Borowy	+0.0
39	25-14	UCONN	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Hofstra first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.