FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwaySEC

3:0

HomeSUN-BELT

Mississippi St. def. South Alabama 3–0

(25-19, 25-15, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
MISSST	25	25	25	3
S ALA	19	15	20	0

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S ALA above 50 · MISSST below

Biggest swing: 1.4% to South Alabama — set 1, MISSST 8-8 S ALA. South Alabama ace on Team. S ALA win probability 11% → 12%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MISSST 88.6%11.4% S ALA

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

42.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.8%

South Alabama wins

3-0

1.6%

3-1

3.5%

3-2

6.3%

MISSST break %: 49.8% vs this opp
S ALA break %: 40.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
S ALA serverAce+1.4%
South Alabama ace on Team
Set 1 · MISSST 8-8 S ALA · S ALA 11% → 12%
02
Dalayla BlackwellAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Dalayla Blackwell
Set 1 · MISSST 11-9 S ALA · MISSST 89% → 90%
03
Anabelle CernyKill+1.2%
Kill by Anabelle Cerny (set by Addison Hurst)
Set 1 · MISSST 9-9 S ALA · S ALA 11% → 12%
04
Olivia StantKill+1.1%
Kill by Olivia Stant (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 1 · MISSST 10-9 S ALA · MISSST 88% → 89%
05
MISSST serverAce+1.1%
Mississippi St. ace on Sarah Gooch
Set 1 · MISSST 3-2 S ALA · MISSST 88% → 90%
06
Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossKill+1.1%
Kill by Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 1 · MISSST 9-8 S ALA · MISSST 88% → 89%
07
Alexa StrandbergKill+1.1%
Kill by Alexa Strandberg (set by Anabelle Cerny)
Set 1 · MISSST 6-5 S ALA · S ALA 9% → 10%
08
Eva DittmarAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Eva Dittmar
Set 1 · MISSST 12-9 S ALA · MISSST 90% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Mississippi St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	3	10	4	30	.200	0	3	0	7	2	2	1	14
20Noella ObiOPP	3	7	2	13	.385	1	0	0	4	0	6	3	10
1Bernardita AguilarOH	3	7	1	21	.286	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	9
24Cayley HansonS	3	2	1	9	.111	28	4	1	9	0	2	1	7
28Olivia StantOH	3	6	4	25	.080	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
22Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	5.5
8Mary NealDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	7	0	0	0	2
4McKenna YatesDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	13	1	0	0	1
17Kyla ScharfmanDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	13	105	.219	31	10	4	44	4	18	9	75

South Alabamahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Dalayla BlackwellMB	3	8	2	17	.353	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
0Sarah GoochOH	3	6	3	21	.143	0	3	2	3	2	0	0	0	9
8Cambria GaierOH	3	8	6	23	.087	0	0	2	6	2	0	0	0	8
22Alexa StrandbergMB	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	6
4Eva DittmarOH	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Anabelle CernyS	3	1	1	5	.000	25	1	0	12	0	0	0	0	2
3Addison HurstL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	10	1	0	0	0	0
6Elyse HeffnerMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Marissa TaixL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
14Charlotte PearceMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
17Kathryn O'TooleDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
23Megan SmithOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	18	98	.143	27	4	8	41	10	2	2	3	54

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MISSST · S ALA 6

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 6 MISSSTS ALA 4

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 MISSSTS ALA 3

Set 3*

25-20

Longest run 5 MISSSTS ALA 6

Bars above the line = South Alabama leads, below = Mississippi St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	20%1/5
2	67%4/6	73%11/15
3	67%4/6	60%6/10
4	57%4/7	60%6/10
5	100%3/3	50%3/6
6	60%3/5	0%0/3
All	66%23/35	55%27/49

South Alabama

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%5/10	33%2/6
2	29%4/14	50%5/10
3	44%4/9	33%2/6
4	38%3/8	33%2/6
5	75%3/4	25%1/4
6	75%3/4	0%0/3
All	45%22/49	34%12/35

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	MISSST-S ALA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MISSST	S ALA	Serve err	MISSST server		+1.0
2	1-1	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.9
3	1-2	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell	set Lindsey Mangelson	+1.1
4	2-2	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+1.0
5	3-2	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	MISSST server	aced Sarah Gooch	+1.1
6	3-3	MISSST	S ALA	Serve err	MISSST server		+1.0
7	4-3	S ALA	MISSST×3	Bad set	Addison Hurst		+0.9
8	5-3	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Noella Obi	+1.0
9	6-3	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Cambria Gaier	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Bernardita Aguilar	+0.9
10	6-4	MISSST	S ALA	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	blk Alexa Strandberg	+0.8
11	6-5	S ALA	S ALA	Kill	Alexa Strandberg	set Anabelle Cerny	+1.1
12	7-5	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.9
13	7-6	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Sarah Gooch	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.9
14	8-6	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.9
15	8-7	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell	set Anabelle Cerny	+1.0
16	8-8	S ALA	S ALA	Ace	S ALA server	aced Team	+1.4
17	9-8	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+1.1
18	9-9	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Anabelle Cerny	set Addison Hurst	+1.2
19	10-9	S ALA	MISSST×6	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Cayley Hanson	+1.1
20	11-9	MISSST	MISSST×6	Attack err	Dalayla Blackwell		+1.3
21	12-9	MISSST	MISSST×6	Attack err	Eva Dittmar		+1.1
22	13-9	MISSST	MISSST×6	Ace	MISSST server	aced Sarah Gooch	+0.9
23	14-9	MISSST	MISSST×6	Ace	MISSST server	aced Megan Smith	+0.7
24	15-9	MISSST	MISSST×6	Ace	MISSST server	aced Team	+0.5
25	15-10	MISSST	S ALA	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.3
26	16-10	S ALA	MISSST	Attack err	Cambria Gaier		+0.4
27	17-10	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set McKenna Yates	+0.3
28	17-11	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Eva Dittmar	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.2
29	18-11	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.3
30	19-11	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
31	19-12	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Alexa Strandberg	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.1
32	20-12	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Lindsey Mangelson	+0.1
33	21-12	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
34	21-13	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Sarah Gooch	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.0
35	22-13	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.0
36	22-14	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Sarah Gooch	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.0
37	22-15	S ALA	S ALA	Kill	Eva Dittmar	set Addison Hurst	+0.0
38	23-15	S ALA	MISSST	Bad set	Anabelle Cerny		+0.1
39	23-16	MISSST	S ALA×4	Attack err	Cayley Hanson		+0.0
40	23-17	S ALA	S ALA×4	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.1
41	23-18	S ALA	S ALA×4	Attack err	Olivia Stant		+0.1
42	23-19	S ALA	S ALA×4	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.3
43	24-19	S ALA	MISSST	Attack err	Sarah Gooch		+0.4
44	25-19	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Cambria Gaier	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	S ALA	MISSST×5	Attack err	Sarah Gooch	blk Cayley Hanson, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+0.6
2	2-0	MISSST	MISSST×5	Ace	MISSST server	aced Addison Hurst	+0.7
3	3-0	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
4	4-0	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
5	5-0	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
6	5-1	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Sarah Gooch	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.3
7	5-2	S ALA	S ALA	Kill	Cambria Gaier		+0.5
8	6-2	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
9	6-3	MISSST	S ALA×3	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.4
10	6-4	S ALA	S ALA×3	Kill	Alexa Strandberg	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.6
11	6-5	S ALA	S ALA×3	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.8
12	7-5	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
13	7-6	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Eva Dittmar	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.7
14	7-7	S ALA	S ALA	Kill	Alexa Strandberg	set Cambria Gaier	+0.9
15	8-7	S ALA	MISSST	Bad set	Anabelle Cerny		+0.7
16	9-7	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Alexa Strandberg	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Lindsey Mangelson	+0.8
17	9-8	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Cambria Gaier	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.7
18	10-8	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.7
19	10-9	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Sarah Gooch	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.7
20	11-9	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Cayley Hanson		+0.7
21	12-9	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.8
22	12-10	MISSST	S ALA	Bad set	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+0.6
23	13-10	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
24	14-10	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Eva Dittmar		+0.6
25	14-11	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.5
26	14-12	S ALA	S ALA	Ace	S ALA server	aced Lindsey Mangelson	+0.8
27	15-12	S ALA	MISSST×5	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
28	16-12	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
29	17-12	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
30	18-12	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Noella Obi		+0.3
31	19-12	MISSST	MISSST×5	Ace	MISSST server	aced Team	+0.2
32	19-13	MISSST	S ALA	Attack err	Olivia Stant		+0.1
33	20-13	S ALA	MISSST×4	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
34	21-13	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Eva Dittmar	blk Noella Obi, Lindsey Mangelson	+0.1
35	22-13	MISSST	MISSST×4	Attack err	Cambria Gaier	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.0
36	23-13	MISSST	MISSST×4	Ace	MISSST server	aced Kathryn O'Toole	+0.0
37	23-14	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Cambria Gaier	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.0
38	23-15	S ALA	S ALA	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.0
39	24-15	S ALA	MISSST	Attack err	Cambria Gaier	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.0
40	25-15	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Alexa Strandberg		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Sarah Gooch		+0.3
2	1-1	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.3
3	1-2	S ALA	S ALA	Ace	S ALA server	aced McKenna Yates	+0.4
4	2-2	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.3
5	2-3	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Charlotte Pearce	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.4
6	3-3	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
7	4-3	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
8	4-4	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Cambria Gaier	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.3
9	4-5	S ALA	S ALA	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.5
10	5-5	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
11	5-6	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Cambria Gaier	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.4
12	6-6	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
13	6-7	MISSST	S ALA	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.4
14	7-7	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
15	7-8	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Cambria Gaier	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.4
16	8-8	S ALA	MISSST×3	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
17	9-8	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Dalayla Blackwell	blk Noella Obi, Cayley Hanson	+0.4
18	10-8	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Anabelle Cerny	blk Olivia Stant, Noella Obi	+0.4
19	10-9	MISSST	S ALA×6	Attack err	Noella Obi	blk Dalayla Blackwell	+0.3
20	10-10	S ALA	S ALA×6	Attack err	Olivia Stant	blk Eva Dittmar, Dalayla Blackwell	+0.5
21	10-11	S ALA	S ALA×6	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.6
22	10-12	S ALA	S ALA×6	Kill	Cambria Gaier	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.6
23	10-13	S ALA	S ALA×6	Ace	S ALA server	aced Lindsey Mangelson	+0.7
24	10-14	S ALA	S ALA×6	Attack err	Olivia Stant		+0.7
25	11-14	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
26	11-15	MISSST	S ALA	Attack err	Noella Obi		+0.6
27	12-15	S ALA	MISSST	Serve err	S ALA server		+0.5
28	13-15	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
29	13-16	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Cambria Gaier	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.6
30	14-16	S ALA	MISSST×5	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
31	15-16	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
32	16-16	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.7
33	17-16	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Alexa Strandberg		+0.7
34	18-16	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Cambria Gaier		+0.6
35	18-17	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Alexa Strandberg	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.5
36	19-17	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
37	19-18	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Sarah Gooch	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.5
38	20-18	S ALA	MISSST×5	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
39	21-18	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Kyla Scharfman	+0.5
40	22-18	MISSST	MISSST×5	Ace	MISSST server	aced Marissa Taix	+0.4
41	23-18	MISSST	MISSST×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
42	24-18	MISSST	MISSST×5	Ace	MISSST server	aced Cambria Gaier	+0.1
43	24-19	MISSST	S ALA	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell		+0.0
44	24-20	S ALA	S ALA	Kill	Dalayla Blackwell	set Anabelle Cerny	+0.0
45	25-20	S ALA	MISSST	Kill	Olivia Stant	set Sarah Gooch	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.