FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayPATRIOT

0:3

HomeMAC

Western Mich. def. Navy 3–0

(25-13, 25-14, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NAVY	13	14	16	0
W MICH	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

W MICH above 50 · NAVY below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to Navy — set 2, NAVY 7-4 W MICH. Kill by Farrah Eike (set by Kinamoni Jerome). W MICH win probability 95% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NAVY 7.4%92.6% W MICH

Navy wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.2%

3-2

4.3%

Western Mich. wins

3-0

49.4%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

12.1%

NAVY break %: 37.3% vs this opp
W MICH break %: 48.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Farrah EikeKill+0.9%
Kill by Farrah Eike (set by Kinamoni Jerome)
Set 2 · NAVY 7-4 W MICH · NAVY 5% → 6%
02
Farrah EikeKill+0.9%
Kill by Farrah Eike (set by Isa Boyd)
Set 2 · NAVY 5-2 W MICH · NAVY 5% → 6%
03
Caroline BuffumAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Caroline Buffum
Set 2 · NAVY 8-7 W MICH · W MICH 94% → 95%
04
Gabby WeiheKill+0.8%
Kill by Gabby Weihe (set by Leah Richmond)
Set 1 · NAVY 1-2 W MICH · W MICH 93% → 93%
05
Farrah EikeKill+0.8%
Kill by Farrah Eike (set by Isa Boyd)
Set 2 · NAVY 4-2 W MICH · NAVY 4% → 5%
06
Avery MadduxAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Avery Maddux
Set 2 · NAVY 8-8 W MICH · W MICH 95% → 96%
07
Avery MadduxKill+0.7%
Kill by Avery Maddux (set by Kinamoni Jerome)
Set 2 · NAVY 8-5 W MICH · NAVY 6% → 6%
08
Caroline BuffumAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Caroline Buffum
Set 2 · NAVY 9-10 W MICH · W MICH 96% → 96%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Navyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Farrah EikeOH	3	9	1	26	.308	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	9
17Avery MadduxMB	3	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	5
3Hailey JacobusOH	3	4	4	28	.000	0	0	8	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
24Siena MorganMB	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
6Isa BoydS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
22Grace BurgoyneMB	2	1	2	8	-.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Amara ChambersL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	16	0	0	0	0	0
10Kinamoni JeromeS	3	0	0	0	–	8	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
7Paige BuzzerioOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	0
12Ellen GundlachMB	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
18Izzy PicardOH	2	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Caroline BuffumOH	2	1	6	16	-.313	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
2Ally AlessioL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
11Mackenzie PalumboOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
13Caroline AdamsS	1	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Madeline BildeauxMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	22	118	.042	23	4	48	3	1	4	3	43

Western Mich.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Cassidy PratleyMB	3	8	0	13	.615	0	2	4	4	0	3	1.5	11.5
6Annalise PatchettOH	3	9	2	33	.212	1	0	1	11	1	1	1.5	10.5
1Izzy SwierczOH	3	9	2	23	.304	2	1	1	8	0	1	0.5	10.5
10Gabby WeiheMB	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	0	3	1	3	2.5	8.5
4Leah RichmondS	3	4	0	9	.444	33	0	1	9	1	3	2.5	6.5
2Elana EricksonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
21Mia JurkovicOH	3	7	3	17	.235	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
19Carley PiercefieldL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	20	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	8	107	.327	41	3	8	65	3	12	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 NAVY · W MICH 10

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 NAVYW MICH 6

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 NAVYW MICH 10

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 4 NAVYW MICH 6

Bars above the line = Western Mich. leads, below = Navy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Navy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	20%1/5
2	35%6/17	14%1/7
3	55%6/11	33%3/9
4	38%5/13	33%3/9
5	50%4/8	44%4/9
6	23%3/13	20%1/5
All	41%30/74	30%13/44

Western Mich.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	74%14/19
2	75%6/8	67%12/18
3	60%6/10	33%3/9
4	55%6/11	60%9/15
5	80%4/5	43%3/7
6	100%3/3	50%3/6
All	70%31/44	59%44/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

118 rallies

Rally log

#	NAVY-W MICH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+0.7
2	1-1	NAVY	W MICH×6	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.6
3	1-2	W MICH	W MICH×6	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.8
4	1-3	W MICH	W MICH×6	Ace	W MICH server	aced Farrah Eike	+0.7
5	1-4	W MICH	W MICH×6	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.6
6	1-5	W MICH	W MICH×6	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Annalise Patchett	+0.5
7	1-6	W MICH	W MICH×6	Ace	W MICH server	aced Farrah Eike	+0.4
8	2-6	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Isa Boyd	+0.3
9	2-7	NAVY	W MICH	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.3
10	3-7	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Isa Boyd	+0.3
11	3-8	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Izzy Swiercz	+0.3
12	4-8	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.3
13	4-9	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.3
14	5-9	W MICH	NAVY	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.3
15	6-9	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Mia Jurkovic		+0.5
16	6-10	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.4
17	6-11	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Izzy Picard	blk Cassidy Pratley, Izzy Swiercz	+0.4
18	7-11	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Izzy Picard	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.3
19	7-12	NAVY	W MICH×4	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+0.3
20	7-13	W MICH	W MICH×4	Attack err	Grace Burgoyne	blk Annalise Patchett	+0.3
21	7-14	W MICH	W MICH×4	Attack err	Siena Morgan		+0.2
22	7-15	W MICH	W MICH×4	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
23	8-15	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+0.1
24	8-16	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
25	8-17	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Hailey Jacobus	blk Leah Richmond	+0.1
26	9-17	W MICH	NAVY	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
27	9-18	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
28	9-19	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Grace Burgoyne		+0.0
29	10-19	W MICH	NAVY	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
30	10-20	NAVY	W MICH×4	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Izzy Swiercz	+0.0
31	10-21	W MICH	W MICH×4	Bad set	Amara Chambers		+0.0
32	10-22	W MICH	W MICH×4	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
33	10-23	W MICH	W MICH×4	Attack err	Izzy Picard		+0.0
34	11-23	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Hailey Jacobus	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.0
35	12-23	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Avery Maddux		+0.0
36	12-24	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
37	13-24	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Izzy Picard	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.0
38	13-25	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.4
2	1-1	W MICH	NAVY	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.4
3	2-1	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Annalise Patchett		+0.6
4	2-2	NAVY	W MICH	Attack err	Farrah Eike		+0.4
5	3-2	W MICH	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.5
6	4-2	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.8
7	5-2	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.9
8	5-3	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.5
9	5-4	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.7
10	6-4	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.6
11	7-4	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.9
12	7-5	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.6
13	8-5	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Avery Maddux	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.7
14	8-6	NAVY	W MICH×3	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.6
15	8-7	W MICH	W MICH×3	Attack err	Caroline Buffum		+0.8
16	8-8	W MICH	W MICH×3	Attack err	Avery Maddux		+0.8
17	9-8	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Caroline Buffum	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.7
18	9-9	NAVY	W MICH×10	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+0.6
19	9-10	W MICH	W MICH×10	Attack err	Caroline Buffum		+0.7
20	9-11	W MICH	W MICH×10	Bad set	Kinamoni Jerome		+0.6
21	9-12	W MICH	W MICH×10	Ace	W MICH server	aced Paige Buzzerio	+0.5
22	9-13	W MICH	W MICH×10	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.4
23	9-14	W MICH	W MICH×10	Attack err	Siena Morgan	blk Annalise Patchett, Cassidy Pratley	+0.3
24	9-15	W MICH	W MICH×10	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
25	9-16	W MICH	W MICH×10	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
26	9-17	W MICH	W MICH×10	Attack err	Hailey Jacobus	blk Cassidy Pratley, Leah Richmond	+0.1
27	9-18	W MICH	W MICH×10	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
28	10-18	W MICH	NAVY	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
29	11-18	NAVY	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan		+0.0
30	11-19	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
31	11-20	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
32	12-20	W MICH	NAVY	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
33	12-21	NAVY	W MICH	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+0.0
34	13-21	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.0
35	13-22	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
36	13-23	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
37	14-23	W MICH	NAVY	Attack err	Izzy Swiercz	blk Avery Maddux, Ellen Gundlach	+0.0
38	14-24	NAVY	W MICH	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.0
39	14-25	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Siena Morgan	set Isa Boyd	+0.2
2	1-1	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
3	2-1	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Ellen Gundlach	set Isa Boyd	+0.2
4	3-1	NAVY	NAVY	Attack err	Annalise Patchett		+0.3
5	3-2	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
6	3-3	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Hailey Jacobus	blk Mia Jurkovic, Gabby Weihe	+0.3
7	4-3	W MICH	NAVY	Attack err	Mia Jurkovic	blk Avery Maddux, Hailey Jacobus	+0.2
8	4-4	NAVY	W MICH×5	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
9	4-5	W MICH	W MICH×5	Attack err	Hailey Jacobus		+0.3
10	4-6	W MICH	W MICH×5	Bad set	Grace Burgoyne		+0.2
11	4-7	W MICH	W MICH×5	Attack err	Avery Maddux	blk Gabby Weihe	+0.2
12	4-8	W MICH	W MICH×5	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
13	5-8	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Avery Maddux	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.1
14	5-9	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
15	6-9	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Kinamoni Jerome	+0.1
16	6-10	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Carley Piercefield	+0.1
17	7-10	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Amara Chambers	+0.1
18	7-11	NAVY	W MICH×3	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
19	7-12	W MICH	W MICH×3	Attack err	Caroline Buffum		+0.1
20	7-13	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
21	8-13	W MICH	NAVY	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Isa Boyd	+0.1
22	8-14	NAVY	W MICH×6	Serve err	NAVY server		+0.1
23	8-15	W MICH	W MICH×6	Attack err	Caroline Buffum	blk Gabby Weihe, Leah Richmond	+0.1
24	8-16	W MICH	W MICH×6	Attack err	Caroline Buffum	blk Leah Richmond, Gabby Weihe	+0.0
25	8-17	W MICH	W MICH×6	Attack err	Ellen Gundlach		+0.0
26	8-18	W MICH	W MICH×6	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+0.0
27	8-19	W MICH	W MICH×6	Kill	Annalise Patchett		+0.0
28	9-19	W MICH	NAVY	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
29	9-20	NAVY	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
30	9-21	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Avery Maddux		+0.0
31	10-21	W MICH	NAVY×3	Kill	Mackenzie Palumbo	set Isa Boyd	+0.0
32	11-21	NAVY	NAVY×3	Kill	Grace Burgoyne	set Amara Chambers	+0.0
33	12-21	NAVY	NAVY×3	Attack err	Gabby Weihe	blk Avery Maddux	+0.0
34	12-22	NAVY	W MICH	Attack err	Caroline Buffum		+0.0
35	13-22	W MICH	NAVY×4	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
36	14-22	NAVY	NAVY×4	Attack err	Izzy Swiercz		+0.0
37	15-22	NAVY	NAVY×4	Kill	Farrah Eike	set Caroline Adams	+0.0
38	16-22	NAVY	NAVY×4	Attack err	Mia Jurkovic		+0.0
39	16-23	NAVY	W MICH×3	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
40	16-24	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Carley Piercefield	+0.0
41	16-25	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Navy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.