Northwestern def. Butler 3–1
(25-21, 19-25, 25-17, 25-20)| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUTLER | 21 | 25 | 17 | 20 | 1 |
| NW | 25 | 19 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 3.1% to Butler — set 4, BUTLER 11-10 NW. Butler ace on Isabella Bullington. NW win probability 89% → 85%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Butler wins
Northwestern wins
- BUTLER break %
- 36.2% vs this opp
- NW break %
- 43.0% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01BUTLER serverAce+3.1%
Butler ace on Isabella Bullington
Set 4 · BUTLER 11-10 NW · BUTLER 11% → 15%
- 02BUTLER serverAce+3.0%
Butler ace on Isabella Bullington
Set 3 · BUTLER 3-2 NW · BUTLER 24% → 27%
- 03Raegan DurbinAttack error+3.0%
Raegan Durbin stuffed by Ellie Stiernagle & Kayla Kauffman
Set 4 · BUTLER 12-13 NW · NW 87% → 90%
- 04
- 05
- 06Lily WagnerKill+2.7%
Kill by Lily Wagner (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 4 · BUTLER 12-14 NW · NW 90% → 93%
- 07Raegan DurbinKill+2.7%
Kill by Raegan Durbin (set by Jersey Loyer)
Set 4 · BUTLER 10-10 NW · BUTLER 9% → 11%
- 08Chase LemmingAttack error+2.7%
Chase Lemming stuffed by Campbell Paris & Maya Stillwell
Set 4 · BUTLER 16-19 NW · NW 93% → 96%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 13 | 4 | 31 | .290 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | 18 | .500 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 11.5 | |
| 4 | 10 | 3 | 25 | .280 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| 4 | 7 | 2 | 14 | .357 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| 4 | 7 | 2 | 18 | .278 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 8 | 3 | 16 | .313 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 9.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 14 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -.250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 54 | 15 | 128 | .305 | 48 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 83 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 16 | 4 | 35 | .343 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | |
| 4 | 13 | 1 | 23 | .522 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| 4 | 12 | 8 | 32 | .125 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 12.5 | |
| 4 | 7 | 0 | 10 | .700 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| 4 | 5 | 1 | 12 | .333 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | .600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 61 | 17 | 135 | .326 | 57 | 4 | 9 | 53 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 94 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
21-25
Set 2
25-19
Set 3
17-25
Set 4
20-25
Bars above the line = Northwestern leads, below = Butler leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Butler
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71%12/17 | 17%2/12 |
| 2 | 65%11/17 | 31%5/16 |
| 3 | 47%9/19 | 35%6/17 |
| 4 | 69%9/13 | 31%4/13 |
| 5 | 53%8/15 | 25%3/12 |
| 6 | 67%8/12 | 43%6/14 |
| All | 61%57/93 | 31%26/84 |
Northwestern
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 86%12/14 | 29%4/14 |
| 2 | 65%11/17 | 45%10/22 |
| 3 | 56%10/18 | 23%3/13 |
| 4 | 100%9/9 | 53%10/19 |
| 5 | 73%8/11 | 47%7/15 |
| 6 | 53%8/15 | 20%2/10 |
| All | 69%58/84 | 39%36/93 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
177 rallies
Rally log
| # | BUTLER-NW | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.2 |
| 2 | 1-1 | BUTLER | NW×3 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 3 | 1-2 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.7 |
| 4 | 1-3 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.5 |
| 5 | 2-3 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.0 |
| 6 | 2-4 | BUTLER | NW | Attack err | Elise Ward | +1.0 | |
| 7 | 2-5 | NW | NW | Attack err | Sawyer Jones | +1.4 | |
| 8 | 3-5 | NW | BUTLER×3 | Serve err | NW server | +0.9 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Attack err | Hayley Schaaf | blk Elise Ward, Carly Slusser | +1.6 |
| 10 | 5-5 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Kill | Elise Ward | set Sarah Kempf | +1.9 |
| 11 | 5-6 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.2 |
| 12 | 5-7 | NW | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Sarah Kempf | +1.7 |
| 13 | 6-7 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Drew Wright | +1.1 |
| 14 | 6-8 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 15 | 6-9 | NW | NW | Ace | NW server | aced Jersey Loyer | +1.5 |
| 16 | 7-9 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Maria Nix | set Sarah Kempf | +1.0 |
| 17 | 7-10 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 18 | 8-10 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Sarah Kempf | +1.0 |
| 19 | 8-11 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 20 | 9-11 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Sawyer Jones | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.0 |
| 21 | 9-12 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 22 | 10-12 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +1.0 | |
| 23 | 10-13 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +1.1 | |
| 24 | 11-13 | NW | BUTLER | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | blk Sawyer Jones, Carly Slusser | +1.1 |
| 25 | 12-13 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | +2.0 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.4 |
| 27 | 12-15 | NW | NW | Attack err | Carly Slusser | +1.9 | |
| 28 | 13-15 | NW | BUTLER | Bad set | Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 | |
| 29 | 13-16 | BUTLER | NW | Attack err | Maria Nix | blk Mara Stiglic, Hayley Schaaf | +1.2 |
| 30 | 13-17 | NW | NW | Attack err | Carly Slusser | blk Maya Stillwell | +1.5 |
| 31 | 14-17 | NW | BUTLER | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | blk Carly Slusser, Maria Nix | +0.8 |
| 32 | 14-18 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 33 | 15-18 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Sarah Kempf | +0.8 |
| 34 | 15-19 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 35 | 16-19 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +0.7 | |
| 36 | 17-19 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Attack err | Campbell Paris | blk Elise Ward, Zoe McDonald | +1.7 |
| 37 | 17-20 | BUTLER | NW×3 | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.4 |
| 38 | 17-21 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.5 |
| 39 | 17-22 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.8 |
| 40 | 18-22 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.3 |
| 41 | 19-22 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.8 |
| 42 | 19-23 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.9 |
| 43 | 20-23 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.4 |
| 44 | 20-24 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.8 |
| 45 | 21-24 | NW | BUTLER | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | +0.2 | |
| 46 | 21-25 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.5 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | BUTLER | NW×5 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.8 |
| 2 | 0-2 | NW | NW×5 | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 3 | 0-3 | NW | NW×5 | Attack err | Sawyer Jones | +1.0 | |
| 4 | 0-4 | NW | NW×5 | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | +0.8 | |
| 5 | 0-5 | NW | NW×5 | Attack err | Raegan Durbin | +0.7 | |
| 6 | 1-5 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.4 |
| 7 | 1-6 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.4 |
| 8 | 2-6 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.4 |
| 9 | 3-6 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | +0.8 | |
| 10 | 3-7 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Mara Stiglic | +0.6 |
| 11 | 3-8 | NW | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.7 |
| 12 | 4-8 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Carly Slusser | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.4 |
| 13 | 4-9 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.5 |
| 14 | 5-9 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Jersey Loyer | +0.4 |
| 15 | 5-10 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.5 |
| 16 | 6-10 | NW | BUTLER×3 | Kill | Carly Slusser | set Sarah Kempf | +0.4 |
| 17 | 7-10 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Kill | Maria Nix | set Sarah Kempf | +0.8 |
| 18 | 8-10 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Kill | Maria Nix | set Sarah Kempf | +1.1 |
| 19 | 8-11 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.8 |
| 20 | 9-11 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +0.8 | |
| 21 | 9-12 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Drew Wright | +0.8 |
| 22 | 10-12 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Sawyer Jones | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.8 |
| 23 | 11-12 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.5 |
| 24 | 11-13 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 25 | 12-13 | NW | BUTLER×4 | Kill | Sawyer Jones | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.0 |
| 26 | 13-13 | BUTLER | BUTLER×4 | Kill | Carly Slusser | +1.9 | |
| 27 | 14-13 | BUTLER | BUTLER×4 | Kill | Sawyer Jones | set Kaylee Finnegan | +2.2 |
| 28 | 15-13 | BUTLER | BUTLER×4 | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +2.3 |
| 29 | 15-14 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.3 |
| 30 | 16-14 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Carly Slusser | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.7 |
| 31 | 16-15 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.4 |
| 32 | 17-15 | NW | BUTLER×3 | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | +1.7 | |
| 33 | 18-15 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | +2.6 | |
| 34 | 19-15 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Kill | Maria Nix | +2.3 | |
| 35 | 19-16 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Drew Wright | +1.0 |
| 36 | 19-17 | NW | NW | Bad set | Sarah Kempf | +2.0 | |
| 37 | 20-17 | NW | BUTLER×4 | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Elise Ward | +1.9 |
| 38 | 21-17 | BUTLER | BUTLER×4 | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Sarah Kempf | +2.3 |
| 39 | 22-17 | BUTLER | BUTLER×4 | Kill | Maria Nix | set Sarah Kempf | +1.5 |
| 40 | 23-17 | BUTLER | BUTLER×4 | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | +0.8 | |
| 41 | 23-18 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +0.1 | |
| 42 | 24-18 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +0.4 | |
| 43 | 24-19 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.1 |
| 44 | 25-19 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.2 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.9 |
| 2 | 1-1 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.8 |
| 3 | 1-2 | NW | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.6 |
| 4 | 2-2 | NW | BUTLER | Attack err | Hayley Schaaf | +1.8 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Ace | BUTLER server | aced Isabella Bullington | +3.0 |
| 6 | 3-3 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.9 |
| 7 | 4-3 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Carly Slusser | set Kaylee Finnegan | +2.1 |
| 8 | 4-4 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.9 |
| 9 | 5-4 | NW | BUTLER | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | blk Carly Slusser, Maria Nix | +2.2 |
| 10 | 5-5 | BUTLER | NW×5 | Serve err | BUTLER server | +2.0 | |
| 11 | 5-6 | NW | NW×5 | Bad set | Sawyer Jones | +3.0 | |
| 12 | 5-7 | NW | NW×5 | Ace | NW server | aced Elise Ward | +2.7 |
| 13 | 5-8 | NW | NW×5 | Ace | NW server | aced Team | +2.4 |
| 14 | 5-9 | NW | NW×5 | Attack err | Raegan Durbin | +2.0 | |
| 15 | 6-9 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Maria Nix | set Sarah Kempf | +1.2 |
| 16 | 6-10 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | +1.3 | |
| 17 | 7-10 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Jersey Loyer | +1.2 |
| 18 | 7-11 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Drew Wright | +1.3 |
| 19 | 7-12 | NW | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.6 |
| 20 | 8-12 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.9 |
| 21 | 8-13 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 22 | 8-14 | NW | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.2 |
| 23 | 9-14 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.6 |
| 24 | 9-15 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +0.7 | |
| 25 | 10-15 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Elise Ward | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.6 |
| 26 | 11-15 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Attack err | Ellie Stiernagle | blk Carly Slusser | +1.2 |
| 27 | 11-16 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +1.0 | |
| 28 | 11-17 | NW | NW | Attack err | Maria Nix | +1.1 | |
| 29 | 12-17 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Maria Nix | set Sarah Kempf | +0.5 |
| 30 | 12-18 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +0.7 | |
| 31 | 13-18 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Jersey Loyer | +0.4 |
| 32 | 13-19 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.6 |
| 33 | 13-20 | NW | NW | Bad set | Sarah Kempf | +0.5 | |
| 34 | 14-20 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Sarah Kempf | +0.2 |
| 35 | 15-20 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | blk Zoe McDonald, Sawyer Jones | +0.5 |
| 36 | 15-21 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +0.5 | |
| 37 | 16-21 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Sawyer Jones | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.3 |
| 38 | 16-22 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +0.4 | |
| 39 | 17-22 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.2 |
| 40 | 17-23 | BUTLER | NW×3 | Attack err | Elise Ward | +0.3 | |
| 41 | 17-24 | NW | NW×3 | Bad set | Kaylee Finnegan | +0.2 | |
| 42 | 17-25 | NW | NW×3 | Attack err | Elise Ward | +0.0 | |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.3 |
| 2 | 1-1 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Sawyer Jones | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.4 |
| 3 | 1-2 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +1.3 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Sawyer Jones | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.4 |
| 5 | 2-3 | BUTLER | NW×4 | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Gigi Navarrete | +1.4 |
| 6 | 2-4 | NW | NW×4 | Kill | Kayla Kauffman | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.0 |
| 7 | 2-5 | NW | NW×4 | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Gigi Navarrete | +1.7 |
| 8 | 2-6 | NW | NW×4 | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Gigi Navarrete | +1.5 |
| 9 | 3-6 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Sawyer Jones | +0.9 |
| 10 | 3-7 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.9 |
| 11 | 4-7 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Carly Slusser | set Sarah Kempf | +0.9 |
| 12 | 4-8 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 13 | 5-8 | NW | BUTLER | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | +0.9 | |
| 14 | 6-8 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | blk Maria Nix, Zoe McDonald | +1.7 |
| 15 | 6-9 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.2 |
| 16 | 7-9 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +1.2 | |
| 17 | 8-9 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Maya Stillwell | +2.2 |
| 18 | 8-10 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.5 |
| 19 | 9-10 | NW | BUTLER×3 | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.5 |
| 20 | 10-10 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Jersey Loyer | +2.7 |
| 21 | 11-10 | BUTLER | BUTLER×3 | Ace | BUTLER server | aced Isabella Bullington | +3.1 |
| 22 | 11-11 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Lauren Dignan | +1.9 |
| 23 | 12-11 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Kaylee Finnegan | +2.2 |
| 24 | 12-12 | BUTLER | NW×3 | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.0 |
| 25 | 12-13 | NW | NW×3 | Attack err | Raegan Durbin | blk Ellie Stiernagle, Kayla Kauffman | +3.0 |
| 26 | 12-14 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Lily Wagner | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.7 |
| 27 | 13-14 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Carly Slusser | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.7 |
| 28 | 13-15 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Kayla Kauffman | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.8 |
| 29 | 13-16 | NW | NW | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Marin Thaxton | +2.4 |
| 30 | 14-16 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +1.4 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Attack err | Lily Wagner | +2.8 | |
| 32 | 15-17 | BUTLER | NW | Serve err | BUTLER server | +2.0 | |
| 33 | 16-17 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Maria Nix | set Sarah Kempf | +2.0 |
| 34 | 16-18 | BUTLER | NW×4 | Attack err | Maria Nix | blk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell | +2.1 |
| 35 | 16-19 | NW | NW×4 | Attack err | Chase Lemming | blk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell | +2.7 |
| 36 | 16-20 | NW | NW×4 | Ace | NW server | aced Chase Lemming | +1.9 |
| 37 | 16-21 | NW | NW×4 | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Isabella Bullington | +1.1 |
| 38 | 17-21 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +0.4 | |
| 39 | 17-22 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.7 |
| 40 | 18-22 | NW | BUTLER | Serve err | NW server | +0.3 | |
| 41 | 19-22 | BUTLER | BUTLER | Kill | Raegan Durbin | set Kaylee Finnegan | +1.0 |
| 42 | 19-23 | BUTLER | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 43 | 20-23 | NW | BUTLER | Kill | Zoe McDonald | set Kaylee Finnegan | +0.5 |
| 44 | 20-24 | BUTLER | NW | Attack err | Raegan Durbin | blk Ellie Stiernagle, Kayla Kauffman | +0.9 |
| 45 | 20-25 | NW | NW | Kill | Kayla Kauffman | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.4 |
Score shown after each rally, Butler first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.