Final · 4 setsTue, Sep 8, 2026

Northwestern def. Butler 3–1

Northwestern beat visiting Butler 3-1 (25-21, 19-25, 25-17, 25-20) on Tue, Sep 8, 2026. Northwestern's Isabella Bullington led with 16 kills, and Lauren Dignan added 20 digs.

Data through · final Sep 8

Set1234Sets
BUTLER212517201
NW251925253

Win probability

Northwestern above 50 · Butler below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.7% NWrally 177 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.7% to Northwestern — set 4, BUTLER 12-13 NW. Raegan Durbin stuffed by Ellie Stiernagle & Kayla Kauffman. NW win probability 82% → 86%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUTLER 30.0%70.0% NW

Butler wins

3-0
5.7%
3-1
10.5%
3-2
13.8%

Northwestern wins

3-0
23.2%
3-1
26.9%
3-2
19.9%
BUTLER break %
39.2% vs this opp
NW break %
43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Raegan Durbin stuffed by Ellie Stiernagle & Kayla Kauffman

    Set 4 · BUTLER 12-13 NW · NW 82% → 86%

  2. 02
    ButlerAce+3.7%

    Butler ace on Isabella Bullington

    Set 4 · BUTLER 11-10 NW · BUTLER 16% → 20%

  3. 03

    Chase Lemming stuffed by Campbell Paris & Maya Stillwell

    Set 4 · BUTLER 16-19 NW · NW 91% → 94%

  4. 04
    Lily WagnerAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Lily Wagner

    Set 4 · BUTLER 15-16 NW · BUTLER 9% → 12%

  5. 05
    Lily WagnerKill+3.5%

    Kill by Lily Wagner (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 4 · BUTLER 12-14 NW · NW 86% → 90%

  6. 06
    Sawyer JonesBad set+3.4%

    Bad set by Sawyer Jones

    Set 3 · BUTLER 5-6 NW · NW 65% → 69%

  7. 07
    ButlerAce+3.4%

    Butler ace on Isabella Bullington

    Set 3 · BUTLER 3-2 NW · BUTLER 33% → 37%

  8. 08
    Raegan DurbinKill+3.3%

    Kill by Raegan Durbin (set by Jersey Loyer)

    Set 4 · BUTLER 10-10 NW · BUTLER 13% → 16%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Butleraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413431.2900028000013
49018.50001200031.511.5
410325.2801025102111
47214.3570001014310
47218.278100100218
4001.0002801400000
48316.31300000031.59.5
4001.0004011410000
4000–1401900000
3000–000100000
1000–011200001
1014-.250000010000
Team totals5415128.30548210454114883
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416435.3431008200016
413123.5220002002114
412832.12510210010.512.5
47010.700000001229
45112.3334800400216
4002.000331400003
4000–3021200000
4000–1012000000
34210.20000010010.54.5
2116.000012000002
1305.600000100214
1000–001000000
Team totals6117135.3265749532110694

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 BUTLER · NW 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 BUTLERNW 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 BUTLERNW 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 2 BUTLERNW 5

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 3 BUTLERNW 4

Bars above the line = Northwestern leads, below = Butler leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Butler

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
17%2/12
2
65%11/17
31%5/16
3
47%9/19
35%6/17
4
69%9/13
31%4/13
5
53%8/15
25%3/12
6
67%8/12
43%6/14
All
61%57/93
31%26/84

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
86%12/14
29%4/14
2
65%11/17
45%10/22
3
56%10/18
23%3/13
4
100%9/9
53%10/19
5
73%8/11
47%7/15
6
53%8/15
20%2/10
All
69%58/84
39%36/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

177 rallies

#BUTLER-NWSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Kaylee Finnegan+1.6
21-1BUTLERNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
31-2NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
41-3NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.1
52-3NWBUTLERKillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+1.5
62-4BUTLERNWAttack errElise Ward+1.5
72-5NWNWAttack errSawyer Jones+2.0
83-5NWBUTLER×3Serve errNorthwestern+1.3
94-5BUTLERBUTLER×3BlockedHayley Schaafblk Elise Ward, Carly Slusser+2.1
105-5BUTLERBUTLER×3KillElise Wardset Sarah Kempf+2.4
115-6BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
125-7NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Sarah Kempf+2.3
136-7NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Drew Wright+1.6
146-8BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
156-9NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Jersey Loyer+2.1
167-9NWBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+1.4
177-10BUTLERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
188-10NWBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf+1.4
198-11BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
209-11NWBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+1.5
219-12BUTLERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
2210-12NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+1.5
2310-13BUTLERNWServe errButler+1.7
2411-13NWBUTLERBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Sawyer Jones, Carly Slusser+1.5
2512-13BUTLERBUTLERAttack errIsabella Bullington+2.6
2612-14BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
2712-15NWNWAttack errCarly Slusser+2.6
2813-15NWBUTLERBad setEllie Stiernagle+1.6
2913-16BUTLERNWBlockedMaria Nixblk Mara Stiglic, Hayley Schaaf+1.8
3013-17NWNWBlockedCarly Slusserblk Maya Stillwell+2.1
3114-17NWBUTLERBlockedMara Stiglicblk Carly Slusser, Maria Nix+1.2
3214-18BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
3315-18NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+1.2
3415-19BUTLERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
3516-19NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+1.1
3617-19BUTLERBUTLERBlockedCampbell Parisblk Elise Ward, Zoe McDonald+2.4
3717-20BUTLERNW×3KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.1
3817-21NWNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
3917-22NWNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
4018-22NWBUTLERKillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+0.5
4119-22BUTLERBUTLERKillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+1.2
4219-23BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
4320-23NWBUTLERKillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+0.7
4420-24BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.2
4521-24NWBUTLERAttack errMara Stiglic+0.4
4621-25BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
Set 2
10-1BUTLERNW×5KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.2
20-2NWNW×5KillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
30-3NWNW×5Attack errSawyer Jones+1.6
40-4NWNW×5KillHayley Schaaf+1.4
50-5NWNW×5Attack errRaegan Durbin+1.2
61-5NWBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Kaylee Finnegan+0.7
71-6BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.8
82-6NWBUTLERKillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+0.7
93-6BUTLERBUTLERAttack errIsabella Bullington+1.3
103-7BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Mara Stiglic+1.0
113-8NWNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.2
124-8NWBUTLERKillCarly Slusserset Kaylee Finnegan+0.8
134-9BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
145-9NWBUTLERKillElise Wardset Jersey Loyer+0.8
155-10BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
166-10NWBUTLER×3KillCarly Slusserset Sarah Kempf+0.8
177-10BUTLERBUTLER×3KillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+1.4
188-10BUTLERBUTLER×3KillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+1.7
198-11BUTLERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
209-11NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+1.2
219-12BUTLERNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+1.3
2210-12NWBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+1.2
2311-12BUTLERBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Kaylee Finnegan+2.1
2411-13BUTLERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
2512-13NWBUTLER×4KillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+1.6
2613-13BUTLERBUTLER×4KillCarly Slusser+2.6
2714-13BUTLERBUTLER×4KillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+2.9
2815-13BUTLERBUTLER×4KillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+3.0
2915-14BUTLERNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
3016-14NWBUTLERKillCarly Slusserset Kaylee Finnegan+2.2
3116-15BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
3217-15NWBUTLER×3Attack errIsabella Bullington+2.3
3318-15BUTLERBUTLER×3Attack errMara Stiglic+3.1
3419-15BUTLERBUTLER×3KillMaria Nix+2.7
3519-16BUTLERNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Drew Wright+1.3
3619-17NWNWBad setSarah Kempf+2.5
3720-17NWBUTLER×4KillRaegan Durbinset Elise Ward+2.4
3821-17BUTLERBUTLER×4KillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+2.7
3922-17BUTLERBUTLER×4KillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+1.8
4023-17BUTLERBUTLER×4Attack errMara Stiglic+0.9
4123-18BUTLERNWServe errButler+0.2
4224-18NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+0.5
4324-19BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
4425-19NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Kaylee Finnegan+0.2
Set 3
11-0NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Kaylee Finnegan+2.3
21-1BUTLERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
31-2NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.1
42-2NWBUTLERAttack errHayley Schaaf+2.2
53-2BUTLERBUTLERAceButleraced Isabella Bullington+3.4
63-3BUTLERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.3
74-3NWBUTLERKillCarly Slusserset Kaylee Finnegan+2.5
84-4BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.3
95-4NWBUTLERBlockedMara Stiglicblk Carly Slusser, Maria Nix+2.5
105-5BUTLERNW×5Serve errButler+2.4
115-6NWNW×5Bad setSawyer Jones+3.4
125-7NWNW×5AceNorthwesternaced Elise Ward+3.2
135-8NWNW×5AceNorthwestern+2.9
145-9NWNW×5Attack errRaegan Durbin+2.6
156-9NWBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+1.6
166-10BUTLERNWKillEllie Stiernagle+1.8
177-10NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Jersey Loyer+1.6
187-11BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Drew Wright+1.8
197-12NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
208-12NWBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Kaylee Finnegan+1.3
218-13BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
228-14NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
239-14NWBUTLERKillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+0.9
249-15BUTLERNWServe errButler+1.1
2510-15NWBUTLERKillElise Wardset Kaylee Finnegan+0.9
2611-15BUTLERBUTLERBlockedEllie Stiernagleblk Carly Slusser+1.7
2711-16BUTLERNWServe errButler+1.5
2811-17NWNWAttack errMaria Nix+1.6
2912-17NWBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+0.8
3012-18BUTLERNWServe errButler+1.1
3113-18NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Jersey Loyer+0.7
3213-19BUTLERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.0
3313-20NWNWBad setSarah Kempf+0.8
3414-20NWBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf+0.3
3515-20BUTLERBUTLERBlockedMara Stiglicblk Zoe McDonald, Sawyer Jones+0.8
3615-21BUTLERNWServe errButler+0.8
3716-21NWBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+0.4
3816-22BUTLERNWServe errButler+0.7
3917-22NWBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Kaylee Finnegan+0.3
4017-23BUTLERNW×3Attack errElise Ward+0.6
4117-24NWNW×3Bad setKaylee Finnegan+0.3
4217-25NWNW×3Attack errElise Ward·
Set 4
10-1BUTLERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
21-1NWBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+1.9
31-2BUTLERNWServe errButler+1.8
42-2NWBUTLERKillSawyer Jonesset Kaylee Finnegan+1.9
52-3BUTLERNW×4KillEllie Stiernagleset Gigi Navarrete+1.9
62-4NWNW×4KillKayla Kauffmanset Ellie Stiernagle+2.6
72-5NWNW×4KillMara Stiglicset Gigi Navarrete+2.4
82-6NWNW×4KillMara Stiglicset Gigi Navarrete+2.1
93-6NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Sawyer Jones+1.3
103-7BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
114-7NWBUTLERKillCarly Slusserset Sarah Kempf+1.4
124-8BUTLERNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
135-8NWBUTLERAttack errMara Stiglic+1.4
146-8BUTLERBUTLERBlockedMara Stiglicblk Maria Nix, Zoe McDonald+2.4
156-9BUTLERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
167-9NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+1.7
178-9BUTLERBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Maya Stillwell+2.8
188-10BUTLERNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.1
199-10NWBUTLER×3KillZoe McDonaldset Kaylee Finnegan+2.1
2010-10BUTLERBUTLER×3KillRaegan Durbinset Jersey Loyer+3.3
2111-10BUTLERBUTLER×3AceButleraced Isabella Bullington+3.7
2211-11BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Lauren Dignan+2.5
2312-11NWBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Kaylee Finnegan+2.7
2412-12BUTLERNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.6
2512-13NWNW×3BlockedRaegan Durbinblk Ellie Stiernagle, Kayla Kauffman+3.7
2612-14NWNW×3KillLily Wagnerset Ellie Stiernagle+3.5
2713-14NWBUTLERKillCarly Slusserset Kaylee Finnegan+2.3
2813-15BUTLERNWKillKayla Kauffmanset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
2913-16NWNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Marin Thaxton+3.2
3014-16NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+2.0
3115-16BUTLERBUTLERAttack errLily Wagner+3.6
3215-17BUTLERNWServe errButler+2.8
3316-17NWBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+2.6
3416-18BUTLERNW×4BlockedMaria Nixblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell+2.9
3516-19NWNW×4BlockedChase Lemmingblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell+3.6
3616-20NWNW×4AceNorthwesternaced Chase Lemming+2.7
3716-21NWNW×4KillEllie Stiernagleset Isabella Bullington+1.7
3817-21NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+0.7
3917-22BUTLERNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
4018-22NWBUTLERServe errNorthwestern+0.6
4119-22BUTLERBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Kaylee Finnegan+1.5
4219-23BUTLERNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
4320-23NWBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Kaylee Finnegan+0.8
4420-24BUTLERNWBlockedRaegan Durbinblk Ellie Stiernagle, Kayla Kauffman+1.5
4520-25NWNWKillKayla Kauffmanset Ellie Stiernagle+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Butler first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).