FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Northwestern def. LIU 3–0

(25-19, 25-18, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LIU	19	18	18	0
NW	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NW above 50 · LIU below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to LIU — set 1, LIU 12-12 NW. Isabella Bullington stuffed by Sara van Gisteren. NW win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LIU 3.3%96.7% NW

LIU wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

0.9%

3-2

2.1%

Northwestern wins

3-0

61.0%

3-1

27.8%

3-2

7.9%

LIU break %: 33.7% vs this opp
NW break %: 47.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Isabella BullingtonAttack error+0.7%
Isabella Bullington stuffed by Sara van Gisteren
Set 1 · LIU 12-12 NW · LIU 3% → 4%
02
Mara StiglicKill+0.7%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · LIU 14-16 NW · NW 96% → 97%
03
NW serverService error+0.6%
Northwestern service error
Set 1 · LIU 14-14 NW · LIU 4% → 4%
04
Ellie StiernagleKill+0.6%
Kill by Ellie Stiernagle (set by Lauren Dignan)
Set 1 · LIU 15-18 NW · NW 97% → 98%
05
Mia Rojas-AvilaKill+0.6%
Kill by Mia Rojas-Avila (set by Bella Correia)
Set 1 · LIU 13-13 NW · LIU 3% → 4%
06
LIU serverService error+0.5%
LIU service error
Set 1 · LIU 14-15 NW · NW 96% → 96%
07
LIU serverAce+0.5%
LIU ace on Drew Wright
Set 1 · LIU 10-11 NW · LIU 3% → 3%
08
Isabella BullingtonKill+0.5%
Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · LIU 13-14 NW · NW 96% → 96%

Official NCAA box

Box score

LIUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Bella CorreiaOH	3	11	2	32	.281	1	0	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
23Sara van GisterenOH	3	7	4	22	.136	0	1	4	10	0	1	0	1	9
24Sara GarciaMB	3	5	6	14	-.071	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	1.5	6.5
15Yasmeen MuhammadMB	3	6	0	13	.462	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Mia Rojas-AvilaOH	3	4	3	17	.059	0	0	2	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
14Dilara ElmaciogluS	3	0	1	6	-.167	30	1	1	4	0	0	2	1	2
6Reese TevesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
5Miabella MusignacL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	16	104	.163	31	2	12	34	3	1	8	5	55

Northwesternhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Isabella BullingtonOH	3	10	2	18	.444	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
11Ellie StiernagleS	3	1	1	4	.000	33	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
2Drew WrightL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	2	0	1	15	1	0	0	0	1
24Cate SchnellOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
8Gabrielle GerryMB	2	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
25Campbell ParisOH	1	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Mara StiglicOH	3	13	2	32	.344	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	13
23Gigi NavarreteL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
16Ava PrattOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
7Lauren DignanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	17	0	0	0	0	0
6Clara SchrammOH	2	7	3	15	.267	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
17Maya StillwellMB	2	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5
20Lily WagnerOH	2	4	0	4	1.000	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
4Kayla KauffmanMB	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Hayley SchaafMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Kaitlyn BodnarS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	12	95	.337	42	3	8	48	2	2	4	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 LIU · NW 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 LIUNW 4

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 2 LIUNW 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 LIUNW 5

Bars above the line = Northwestern leads, below = LIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

LIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	36%4/11
2	38%6/16	18%2/11
3	75%6/8	0%0/6
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	46%6/13	14%1/7
6	50%6/12	50%6/12
All	53%39/74	29%16/56

Northwestern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	38%5/13
2	88%7/8	56%9/16
3	75%6/8	45%5/11
4	86%6/7	45%5/11
5	50%6/12	50%6/12
6	60%6/10	45%5/11
All	71%40/56	47%35/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	LIU-NW	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NW	LIU	Serve err	NW server		+0.4
2	1-1	LIU	NW×3	Attack err	Mia Rojas-Avila	blk Gabrielle Gerry, Campbell Paris	+0.3
3	1-2	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Sara Garcia		+0.4
4	1-3	NW	NW×3	Ace	NW server	aced Reese Teves	+0.4
5	2-3	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara van Gisteren	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.3
6	2-4	LIU	NW×3	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
7	2-5	NW	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
8	2-6	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Mia Rojas-Avila		+0.2
9	3-6	NW	LIU×3	Kill	Yasmeen Muhammad	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
10	4-6	LIU	LIU×3	Attack err	Isabella Bullington	blk Yasmeen Muhammad, Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.3
11	5-6	LIU	LIU×3	Ace	LIU server	aced Team	+0.4
12	5-7	LIU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
13	6-7	NW	LIU	Serve err	NW server		+0.3
14	6-8	LIU	NW	Attack err	Dilara Elmacioglu		+0.3
15	6-9	NW	NW	Attack err	Sara van Gisteren		+0.4
16	7-9	NW	LIU	Serve err	NW server		+0.3
17	8-9	LIU	LIU	Attack err	Gabrielle Gerry		+0.5
18	8-10	LIU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
19	8-11	NW	NW	Kill	Gabrielle Gerry	set Drew Wright	+0.4
20	9-11	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara Garcia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.3
21	10-11	LIU	LIU	Ace	LIU server	aced Drew Wright	+0.5
22	10-12	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.4
23	11-12	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara van Gisteren	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.4
24	12-12	LIU	LIU	Attack err	Isabella Bullington	blk Sara van Gisteren	+0.7
25	12-13	LIU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
26	13-13	NW	LIU	Kill	Mia Rojas-Avila	set Bella Correia	+0.6
27	13-14	LIU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
28	14-14	NW	LIU	Serve err	NW server		+0.6
29	14-15	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.5
30	14-16	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
31	15-16	NW	LIU	Serve err	NW server		+0.5
32	15-17	LIU	NW×4	Serve err	LIU server		+0.5
33	15-18	NW	NW×4	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set Lauren Dignan	+0.6
34	15-19	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
35	15-20	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Drew Wright	+0.2
36	16-20	NW	LIU	Kill	Yasmeen Muhammad	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
37	17-20	LIU	LIU	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Dilara Elmacioglu, Sara Garcia	+0.3
38	17-21	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.3
39	18-21	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
40	18-22	LIU	NW	Attack err	Bella Correia		+0.2
41	18-23	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
42	19-23	NW	LIU	Attack err	Gabrielle Gerry		+0.0
43	19-24	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.1
44	19-25	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	LIU	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.3
2	1-1	LIU	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
3	2-1	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
4	2-2	LIU	NW×4	Serve err	LIU server		+0.2
5	2-3	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Sara van Gisteren	blk Kayla Kauffman, Isabella Bullington	+0.3
6	2-4	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Lauren Dignan	+0.2
7	2-5	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
8	3-5	NW	LIU	Kill	Mia Rojas-Avila	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
9	3-6	LIU	NW	Kill	Kayla Kauffman	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
10	4-6	NW	LIU	Kill	Yasmeen Muhammad	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
11	4-7	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.1
12	5-7	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
13	6-7	LIU	LIU	Kill	Yasmeen Muhammad	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.3
14	6-8	LIU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
15	7-8	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
16	8-8	LIU	LIU	Attack err	Clara Schramm		+0.4
17	8-9	LIU	NW×4	Attack err	Sara Garcia	blk Maya Stillwell	+0.2
18	8-10	NW	NW×4	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
19	8-11	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Sara Garcia		+0.3
20	8-12	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Sara van Gisteren		+0.2
21	9-12	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
22	9-13	LIU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
23	10-13	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara Garcia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
24	11-13	LIU	LIU	Attack err	Clara Schramm		+0.3
25	11-14	LIU	NW	Kill	Clara Schramm	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
26	12-14	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara van Gisteren	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
27	12-15	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.2
28	13-15	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara van Gisteren	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
29	14-15	LIU	LIU	Kill	Yasmeen Muhammad		+0.4
30	14-16	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.3
31	14-17	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
32	15-17	NW	LIU	Kill	Mia Rojas-Avila	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
33	15-18	LIU	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
34	15-19	NW	NW×3	Kill	Clara Schramm	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
35	15-20	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
36	16-20	NW	LIU	Attack err	Maya Stillwell		+0.1
37	16-21	LIU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
38	17-21	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
39	17-22	LIU	NW×3	Kill	Clara Schramm	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
40	17-23	NW	NW×3	Kill	Clara Schramm	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.0
41	17-24	NW	NW×3	Kill	Lily Wagner	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.0
42	18-24	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara van Gisteren	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.0
43	18-25	LIU	NW	Kill	Lily Wagner	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara Garcia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
2	1-1	LIU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
3	1-2	NW	NW	Attack err	Sara Garcia		+0.1
4	2-2	NW	LIU	Attack err	Clara Schramm	blk Sara Garcia, Mia Rojas-Avila	+0.1
5	2-3	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.1
6	3-3	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara van Gisteren	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
7	3-4	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.1
8	4-4	NW	LIU	Kill	Mia Rojas-Avila	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
9	4-5	LIU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
10	5-5	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
11	6-5	LIU	LIU	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+0.2
12	6-6	LIU	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
13	6-7	NW	NW	Kill	Clara Schramm	set Kaitlyn Bodnar	+0.1
14	7-7	NW	LIU×3	Serve err	NW server		+0.1
15	8-7	LIU	LIU×3	Kill	Sara Garcia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.2
16	9-7	LIU	LIU×3	Attack err	Maya Stillwell		+0.2
17	9-8	LIU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Kaitlyn Bodnar	+0.1
18	9-9	NW	NW	Attack err	Sara Garcia	blk Maya Stillwell	+0.2
19	10-9	NW	LIU	Serve err	NW server		+0.2
20	10-10	LIU	NW	Kill	Lily Wagner	set Kaitlyn Bodnar	+0.1
21	10-11	NW	NW	Attack err	Mia Rojas-Avila		+0.2
22	11-11	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara Garcia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
23	11-12	LIU	NW	Kill	Lily Wagner	set Kaitlyn Bodnar	+0.1
24	12-12	NW	LIU	Serve err	NW server		+0.1
25	12-13	LIU	NW×5	Attack err	Sara van Gisteren		+0.1
26	12-14	NW	NW×5	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.2
27	12-15	NW	NW×5	Ace	NW server	aced Team	+0.1
28	12-16	NW	NW×5	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
29	12-17	NW	NW×5	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
30	13-17	NW	LIU	Kill	Yasmeen Muhammad	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.0
31	13-18	LIU	NW	Serve err	LIU server		+0.0
32	13-19	NW	NW	Kill	Drew Wright	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.0
33	14-19	NW	LIU×3	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.0
34	15-19	LIU	LIU×3	Attack err	Ellie Stiernagle	blk Bella Correia, Sara Garcia	+0.0
35	16-19	LIU	LIU×3	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.1
36	16-20	LIU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
37	16-21	NW	NW	Ace	NW server	aced Sara Garcia	+0.1
38	17-21	NW	LIU	Kill	Bella Correia	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.0
39	17-22	LIU	NW	Attack err	Bella Correia		+0.0
40	18-22	NW	LIU	Kill	Sara van Gisteren	set Dilara Elmacioglu	+0.0
41	18-23	LIU	NW×3	Kill	Clara Schramm	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.0
42	18-24	NW	NW×3	Kill	Clara Schramm	set Cate Schnell	+0.0
43	18-25	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Sara Garcia		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, LIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.