Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 17, 2026Watch on XAVIER+

Xavier def. UConn 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Xavier 84.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Xavier beat visiting UConn 3-1 (21-25, 25-17, 26-24, 28-26) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Margo Kemp and Charlotte Moriarty led Xavier with 16 kills each; UConn's Maja Daca had a match-high 17.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set1234Sets
UCONN251724261
XAVIER212526283

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.500 on 26 swings: Margo Kemp and Xavier edged UConn.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Xavier's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Xavier at 84%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · UConn 17–15 Xavier

    4 straight Xavier points turned a 15–17 deficit into a 19–17 lead.

    Xavier 67% → 83%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · UConn 23–23 Xavier

    Xavier closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 26–24 and lead 2–1.

    Xavier 75% → 91%

Xavier above 50UConn belowMax swing 8.8%

UConnXavier

Sideout %
UConn 55.6·Xavier 60.2
Break %
UConn 39.8·Xavier 44.4
Hitting
UConn .247·Xavier .309
Longest run
UConn 6·Xavier 9

Charlotte Moriarty
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 16 K, .222, 16.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Xavier above 50 · UConn below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.8% XAVIERrally 192 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.8% to Xavier — set 3, UCONN 24-26 XAVIER. Maja Daca stuffed by Margo Kemp & Macy Hatkevich. XAVIER win probability 82% → 91%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCONN 17.8%82.2% XAVIER

UConn wins

3-0
2.8%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
9.2%

Xavier wins

3-0
33.9%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
17.6%
UCONN break %
38.6% vs this opp
XAVIER break %
45.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Maja Daca stuffed by Margo Kemp & Macy Hatkevich

    Set 3 · UCONN 24-26 XAVIER · XAVIER 82% → 91%

  2. 02

    Maja Daca stuffed by Iyanna Battle & Macy Hatkevich

    Set 4 · UCONN 25-26 XAVIER · XAVIER 85% → 93%

  3. 03

    Kill by Courtney Grayson (set by Audrey Jensen)

    Set 3 · UCONN 24-24 XAVIER · UCONN 18% → 25%

  4. 04
    Margo KempKill+7.3%

    Kill by Margo Kemp (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 3 · UCONN 24-25 XAVIER · XAVIER 75% → 82%

  5. 05
    Quinci ThomasKill+7.3%

    Kill by Quinci Thomas (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 3 · UCONN 23-24 XAVIER · XAVIER 75% → 82%

  6. 06
    Quinci ThomasKill+7.1%

    Kill by Quinci Thomas (set by Kelsey Niesen)

    Set 4 · UCONN 23-23 XAVIER · XAVIER 78% → 85%

  7. 07
    Maja DacaKill+6.9%

    Kill by Maja Daca (set by Hazuna Akishige)

    Set 3 · UCONN 22-22 XAVIER · UCONN 18% → 25%

  8. 08
    Iyanna BattleKill+6.8%

    Kill by Iyanna Battle (set by Audrey Jensen)

    Set 4 · UCONN 26-28 XAVIER · XAVIER 93% → 100%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UConnaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417740.250033131010.520.5
413329.34500020010.513.5
48314.35710001355.513.5
410133.2730002000010
3315.400000000214
3102.500900200001
47428.1070217002110
4003.0003621130010.52.5
4014-.250320410002
4000–3032020000
4000–101100000
Team totals5920158.2475399645312992
Xavierhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416326.5001322022322
416645.222203150010.516.5
48333.15200000010.58.5
47012.58300000031.58.5
45214.21446011400216
4000–111910001
411222.40910020010.511.5
4000–4101750001
4000–2011420000
1000–000000000
Team totals6316152.30957587392107100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UConn vs Xavier

Season series · Xavier leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UCONN · XAVIER 9

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 6 UCONNXAVIER 3

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 3 UCONNXAVIER 9

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 3 UCONNXAVIER 4

Set 4

26-28

Longest run 6 UCONNXAVIER 3

Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = UConn leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UConn

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%5/15
33%2/6
2
71%5/7
38%3/8
3
71%5/7
38%3/8
4
50%4/8
38%3/8
5
57%4/7
33%2/6
6
50%3/6
33%2/6
All
52%26/50
36%15/42

Xavier

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%5/9
33%2/6
2
83%5/6
69%11/16
3
56%5/9
0%0/5
4
57%4/7
56%5/9
5
100%4/4
50%4/8
6
57%4/7
33%2/6
All
64%27/42
48%24/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

192 rallies

#UCONN-XAVIERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1XAVIERXAVIERBlockedCourtney Graysonblk Margo Kemp+1.4
21-1XAVIERUCONNServe errCharlotte Moriarty+1.1
31-2UCONNXAVIER×3Serve errMaja Daca+1.0
41-3XAVIERXAVIER×3AceMargo Kempaced Maja Daca+1.3
51-4XAVIERXAVIER×3AceMargo Kempaced Hazuna Akishige+1.2
62-4XAVIERUCONN×6KillCourtney Graysonset Isabella Sohl+0.8
73-4UCONNUCONN×6KillSydney Borowyset Isabella Sohl+1.4
84-4UCONNUCONN×6KillHailey Maesset Isabella Sohl+1.6
95-4UCONNUCONN×6BlockedQuinci Thomasblk Jordyn Hughes, Hailey Maes+1.8
106-4UCONNUCONN×6KillIsabella Sohlset Macy Hatkevich+2.0
117-4UCONNUCONN×6KillSydney Borowyset Maggie Carley+2.1
127-5UCONNXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich+1.3
138-5XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Isabella Sohl+1.6
149-5UCONNUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Hazuna Akishige+2.2
159-6UCONNXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.3
169-7XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedSydney Borowyblk Charlotte Moriarty, Iyanna Battle+2.0
179-8XAVIERXAVIER×3Bad setAudrey Jensen+2.0
1810-8XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+1.7
1910-9UCONNXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
2011-9XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+1.7
2111-10UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
2212-10XAVIERUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+1.8
2312-11UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
2413-11XAVIERUCONNServe errCharlotte Moriarty+1.9
2513-12XAVIER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
2614-12XAVIERUCONNKillHailey Maesset Isabella Sohl+1.9
2714-13UCONNXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+1.7
2815-13XAVIERUCONN×3KillSydney Borowyset Isabella Sohl+2.0
2916-13UCONNUCONN×3KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.9
3017-13UCONNUCONN×3BlockedQuinci Thomasblk Helena Einarsdottir, Jordyn Hughes+2.7
3117-14UCONNXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
3217-15XAVIERXAVIERAttack errJordyn Hughes+2.4
3318-15XAVIERUCONNServe errKasey Quenichet+2.3
3419-15UCONNUCONNBlockedCatherine Flahartyblk Jordyn Hughes+2.8
3519-16UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
3620-16XAVIERUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+2.1
3720-17UCONNXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.3
3820-18XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errHelena Einarsdottir+2.6
3920-19XAVIERXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+3.2
4021-19XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+3.1
4121-20UCONNXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Charlotte Moriarty+2.4
4222-20XAVIERUCONN×3Serve errCharlotte Moriarty+3.4
4323-20UCONNUCONN×3KillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+4.1
4424-20UCONNUCONN×3KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.5
4524-21UCONNXAVIERAttack errCourtney Grayson+0.5
4625-21XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+1.3
Set 2
11-0UCONNUCONNAceMaja Dacaaced Kelsey Niesen+2.7
21-1UCONNXAVIER×9KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.8
31-2XAVIERXAVIER×9KillIyanna Battleset Catherine Flaharty+2.5
41-3XAVIERXAVIER×9Attack errHailey Maes+2.2
51-4XAVIERXAVIER×9KillMargo Kempset Isabella Sohl+2.0
61-5XAVIERXAVIER×9Attack errCourtney Grayson+1.7
71-6XAVIERXAVIER×9KillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
81-7XAVIERXAVIER×9KillMargo Kemp+1.1
91-8XAVIERXAVIER×9KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
101-9XAVIERXAVIER×9KillMacy Hatkevichset Charlotte Moriarty+0.6
112-9XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Kelsey Niesen+0.3
122-10UCONNXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
133-10XAVIERUCONN×3BlockedMacy Hatkevichblk Jordyn Hughes+0.3
144-10UCONNUCONN×3AceAudrey Jensenaced Kelsey Niesen+0.6
155-10UCONNUCONN×3BlockedMargo Kempblk Jordyn Hughes+0.9
165-11UCONNXAVIER×3KillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
175-12XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errMaja Daca+0.8
185-13XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.5
196-13XAVIERUCONNAttack errMacy Hatkevich+0.3
206-14UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
216-15XAVIERXAVIERAceMargo Kempaced Jordyn Hughes+0.3
227-15XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+0.1
237-16UCONNXAVIERAttack errHelena Einarsdottir+0.2
248-16XAVIERUCONNServe errMacy Hatkevich+0.1
258-17UCONNXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Kasey Quenichet+0.2
269-17XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Isabella Sohl+0.1
279-18UCONNXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Kelsey Niesen+0.2
289-19XAVIERXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Kelsey Niesen+0.1
2910-19XAVIERUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Isabella Sohl·
3010-20UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.1
3111-20XAVIERUCONNKillHailey Maesset Isabella Sohl·
3211-21UCONNXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich·
3312-21XAVIERUCONNAttack errCharlotte Moriarty·
3413-21UCONNUCONNBlockedMargo Kempblk Jordyn Hughes, Maja Daca+0.1
3513-22UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.1
3614-22XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen·
3714-23UCONNXAVIERServe errHazuna Akishige·
3815-23XAVIERUCONN×3KillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen·
3916-23UCONNUCONN×3BlockedCharlotte Moriartyblk Courtney Grayson, Audrey Jensen·
4017-23UCONNUCONN×3AceHelena Einarsdottiraced Kasey Quenichet+0.1
4117-24UCONNXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.1
4217-25XAVIERXAVIERBlockedMaja Dacablk Catherine Flaharty, Iyanna Battle·
Set 3
11-0XAVIERUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+1.9
22-0UCONNUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Jordyn Hughes+2.9
32-1UCONNXAVIERAttack errMaja Daca+1.9
42-2XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Audrey Jensen+2.6
53-2XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+2.0
64-2UCONNUCONNAttack errQuinci Thomas+3.1
74-3UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.0
85-3XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+2.3
95-4UCONNXAVIER×3Serve errHelena Einarsdottir+2.0
105-5XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.8
115-6XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.7
126-6XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Hazuna Akishige+2.0
136-7UCONNXAVIERServe errMaja Daca+1.9
147-7XAVIERUCONNServe errMargo Kemp+2.1
157-8UCONNXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.0
167-9XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errMaja Daca+2.6
177-10XAVIERXAVIER×3KillMacy Hatkevichset Isabella Sohl+2.2
188-10XAVIERUCONNBlockedCharlotte Moriartyblk Hailey Maes, Jordyn Hughes+1.5
198-11UCONNXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich+1.6
209-11XAVIERUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottir+1.6
2110-11UCONNUCONNAttack errCatherine Flaharty+2.7
2210-12UCONNXAVIERAttack errGrace Maria+2.0
2310-13XAVIERXAVIERAceKelsey Niesenaced Grace Maria+2.5
2411-13XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+1.7
2511-14UCONNXAVIERServe errHazuna Akishige+1.8
2612-14XAVIERUCONN×3KillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+1.7
2713-14UCONNUCONN×3KillMaja Dacaset Grace Maria+3.0
2814-14UCONNUCONN×3KillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+3.8
2914-15UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.7
3015-15XAVIERUCONN×3KillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+2.9
3116-15UCONNUCONN×3AceMaja Dacaaced Kelsey Niesen+4.7
3217-15UCONNUCONN×3KillCourtney Grayson+5.1
3317-16UCONNXAVIER×4Serve errMaja Daca+3.1
3417-17XAVIERXAVIER×4KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.8
3517-18XAVIERXAVIER×4Attack errMaja Daca+4.7
3617-19XAVIERXAVIER×4KillCharlotte Moriartyset Elouise Czajkowski+4.2
3718-19XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+2.7
3818-20UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+3.1
3919-20XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+2.9
4020-20UCONNUCONNAceAudrey Jensenaced Kasey Quenichet+5.5
4120-21UCONNXAVIERServe errAudrey Jensen+4.2
4220-22XAVIERXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Audrey Jensen+5.4
4321-22XAVIERUCONNAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+3.1
4422-22UCONNUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Hazuna Akishige+6.9
4522-23UCONNXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+5.8
4623-23XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+5.8
4723-24UCONNXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+7.3
4824-24XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+7.3
4924-25UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+7.3
5024-26XAVIERXAVIERBlockedMaja Dacablk Margo Kemp, Macy Hatkevich+8.8
Set 4
10-1UCONNXAVIER×3KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.2
20-2XAVIERXAVIER×3AceElouise Czajkowskiaced Hazuna Akishige+1.6
30-3XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedJordyn Hughesblk Margo Kemp+1.4
41-3XAVIERUCONN×6KillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+1.0
52-3UCONNUCONN×6AceGrace Mariaaced Elouise Czajkowski+1.7
63-3UCONNUCONN×6KillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+2.0
74-3UCONNUCONN×6KillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+2.2
85-3UCONNUCONN×6AceGrace Mariaaced Kelsey Niesen+2.4
96-3UCONNUCONN×6KillMaja Dacaset Grace Maria+2.6
106-4UCONNXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.6
117-4XAVIERUCONNKillHelena Einarsdottirset Audrey Jensen+1.9
127-5UCONNXAVIER×3Serve errHazuna Akishige+1.6
137-6XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.4
147-7XAVIERXAVIER×3KillMacy Hatkevichset Margo Kemp+2.4
158-7XAVIERUCONN×4Serve errMargo Kemp+1.8
169-7UCONNUCONN×4Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+2.8
1710-7UCONNUCONN×4AceHelena Einarsdottiraced Kelsey Niesen+2.9
1811-7UCONNUCONN×4Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+2.9
1911-8UCONNXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich+1.7
2011-9XAVIERXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich+2.6
2112-9XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+2.3
2213-9UCONNUCONNAceMaja Daca+3.1
2313-10UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.7
2414-10XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+2.3
2514-11UCONNXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.7
2615-11XAVIERUCONNKillSydney Borowyset Audrey Jensen+2.4
2715-12UCONNXAVIER×3Attack errJordyn Hughes+1.8
2815-13XAVIERXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.9
2915-14XAVIERXAVIER×3Bad setAudrey Jensen+3.2
3016-14XAVIERUCONNServe errElouise Czajkowski+2.7
3117-14UCONNUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+3.8
3217-15UCONNXAVIERBlockedHelena Einarsdottirblk Margo Kemp, Quinci Thomas+2.1
3318-15XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Grace Maria+2.9
3419-15UCONNUCONNKillMaja Daca+3.6
3519-16UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kasey Quenichet+1.7
3619-17XAVIERXAVIERAttack errHelena Einarsdottir+3.2
3720-17UCONN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.2
3820-18UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.2
3921-18XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+3.4
4021-19UCONNXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+2.2
4122-19XAVIERUCONNKillCourtney Graysonset Audrey Jensen+3.6
4222-20UCONNXAVIERServe errMaggie Carley+2.2
4322-21XAVIERXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.5
4423-21XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+4.9
4523-22UCONNXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+3.3
4623-23XAVIERXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Kelsey Niesen+7.1
4724-23XAVIERUCONNBlockedMargo Kempblk Helena Einarsdottir, Jordyn Hughes+6.8
4824-24UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+6.8
4925-24XAVIERUCONNKillJordyn Hughesset Audrey Jensen+6.8
5025-25UCONNXAVIERBad setHazuna Akishige+6.8
5125-26XAVIERXAVIERBlockedMaja Dacablk Iyanna Battle, Macy Hatkevich+8.2
5226-26XAVIERUCONNKillMaja Dacaset Audrey Jensen+5.6
5326-27UCONNXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+5.6
5426-28XAVIERXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Audrey Jensen+6.8

Score shown after each rally, UConn first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).