Green Bay def. Northwestern 3–2
Green Bay won at Northwestern 3-2 (9-25, 27-29, 25-20, 25-23, 15-12) on Sun, Sep 13, 2026. Diane Pichelman led Green Bay with 14 kills; Northwestern's Campbell Paris had a match-high 20.
Data through · final Sep 13
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRNBAY | 9 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 15 | 3 |
| NW | 25 | 29 | 20 | 23 | 12 | 2 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 23.6% to Green Bay — set 5, GRNBAY 14-12 NW. Kill by Diane Pichelman (set by Alexa Hernandez). NW win probability 39% → 15%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Green Bay wins
Northwestern wins
- GRNBAY break %
- 39.0% vs this opp
- NW break %
- 45.6% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Diane PichelmanKill+23.6%
Kill by Diane Pichelman (set by Alexa Hernandez)
Set 5 · GRNBAY 14-12 NW · GRNBAY 61% → 85%
- 02Isabella BullingtonAttack error+16.5%
Attack error by Isabella Bullington
Set 5 · GRNBAY 13-12 NW · GRNBAY 45% → 61%
- 03Kirsten Fish&Kelsey JustmanBlock+16.3%
Cate Schnell stuffed by Kirsten Fish & Kelsey Justman
Set 5 · GRNBAY 11-10 NW · GRNBAY 39% → 55%
- 04Green BayAce+14.9%
Green Bay ace
Set 5 · GRNBAY 15-12 NW · GRNBAY 85% → 100%
- 05Isabella BullingtonAttack error+13.9%
Attack error by Isabella Bullington
Set 5 · GRNBAY 12-11 NW · GRNBAY 44% → 58%
- 06Alexa HernandezKill+13.1%
Kill by Alexa Hernandez (set by Kendall Schara)
Set 5 · GRNBAY 10-10 NW · GRNBAY 25% → 39%
- 07Green BayService error+12.7%
Green Bay service error
Set 5 · GRNBAY 12-12 NW · NW 42% → 55%
- 08Green BayAce+11.7%
Green Bay ace on Isabella Bullington
Set 5 · GRNBAY 7-5 NW · GRNBAY 47% → 59%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 14 | 4 | 30 | .333 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 19 | |
| 5 | 13 | 3 | 31 | .323 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 16 | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 37 | .108 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 13.5 | |
| 5 | 9 | 6 | 27 | .111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 11.5 | |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | .556 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -.143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 10 | 9 | 39 | .026 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 59 | 29 | 182 | .165 | 59 | 10 | 19 | 73 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 13 | 101 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 20 | 2 | 49 | .367 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 22.5 | |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | .625 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 5 | 8 | 34 | -.088 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .667 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .643 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 10.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 32 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -.167 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -.333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| Team totals | 56 | 23 | 166 | .199 | 52 | 4 | 6 | 84 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 109 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
9-25
Set 2
27-29
Set 3
25-20
Set 4
25-23
Set 5
15-12
Bars above the line = Northwestern leads, below = Green Bay leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Green Bay
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47%9/19 | 46%6/13 |
| 2 | 80%8/10 | 43%6/14 |
| 3 | 58%7/12 | 36%4/11 |
| 4 | 58%7/12 | 36%4/11 |
| 5 | 50%6/12 | 63%12/19 |
| 6 | 27%6/22 | 14%1/7 |
| All | 49%43/87 | 44%33/75 |
Northwestern
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80%8/10 | 33%4/12 |
| 2 | 50%7/14 | 50%8/16 |
| 3 | 54%7/13 | 30%3/10 |
| 4 | 41%7/17 | 42%5/12 |
| 5 | 78%7/9 | 46%6/13 |
| 6 | 50%6/12 | 75%18/24 |
| All | 56%42/75 | 51%44/87 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
210 rallies
| # | GRNBAY-NW | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | NW | NW×3 | Attack err | Kirsten Fish | +1.6 | |
| 2 | 0-2 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.5 |
| 3 | 0-3 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.3 |
| 4 | 1-3 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.0 |
| 5 | 1-4 | GRNBAY | NW | Attack err | Kelsey Justman | +1.0 | |
| 6 | 1-5 | NW | NW | Attack err | Kirsten Fish | +1.2 | |
| 7 | 2-5 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.8 |
| 8 | 2-6 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.9 |
| 9 | 2-7 | NW | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 10 | 3-7 | NW | GRNBAY | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | +0.7 | |
| 11 | 3-8 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.7 | |
| 12 | 3-9 | NW | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.8 |
| 13 | 4-9 | NW | GRNBAY×4 | Serve err | Northwestern | +0.5 | |
| 14 | 5-9 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×4 | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.9 |
| 15 | 6-9 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×4 | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | +1.2 | |
| 16 | 7-9 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×4 | Ace | Green Bay | aced Isabella Bullington | +1.5 |
| 17 | 7-10 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Isabella Bullington | +1.1 |
| 18 | 7-11 | NW | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.3 |
| 19 | 8-11 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.9 |
| 20 | 8-12 | GRNBAY | NW×12 | Kill | Gabrielle Gerry | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 21 | 8-13 | NW | NW×12 | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 22 | 8-14 | NW | NW×12 | Attack err | Gillian Koning | +0.8 | |
| 23 | 8-15 | NW | NW×12 | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.6 |
| 24 | 8-16 | NW | NW×12 | Ace | Northwestern | aced Kennedy Schmitz | +0.4 |
| 25 | 8-17 | NW | NW×12 | Blocked | Olivia Neumann | blk Gabrielle Gerry | +0.2 |
| 26 | 8-18 | NW | NW×12 | Bad set | Alexa Hernandez | +0.1 | |
| 27 | 8-19 | NW | NW×12 | Attack err | Olivia Neumann | +0.1 | |
| 28 | 8-20 | NW | NW×12 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Drew Wright | · |
| 29 | 8-21 | NW | NW×12 | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | · |
| 30 | 8-22 | NW | NW×12 | Kill | Gabrielle Gerry | set Ellie Stiernagle | · |
| 31 | 8-23 | NW | NW×12 | Attack err | Victoria Kurilov | · | |
| 32 | 9-23 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Alexa Hernandez | set Kennedy Schmitz | · |
| 33 | 9-24 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | · |
| 34 | 9-25 | NW | NW | Attack err | Sari Marks | · | |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.9 |
| 2 | 0-2 | NW | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 3 | 1-2 | NW | GRNBAY | Serve err | Northwestern | +0.8 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.3 |
| 5 | 2-3 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.9 |
| 6 | 3-3 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.0 |
| 7 | 4-3 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.5 |
| 8 | 4-4 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 9 | 5-4 | NW | GRNBAY | Blocked | Mara Stiglic | blk Kirsten Fish, Diane Pichelman | +1.1 |
| 10 | 5-5 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Lily Wagner | +1.0 |
| 11 | 5-6 | NW | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.4 |
| 12 | 6-6 | NW | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.1 |
| 13 | 7-6 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Ace | Green Bay | aced Lily Wagner | +1.6 |
| 14 | 8-6 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Ace | Green Bay | aced Drew Wright | +1.7 |
| 15 | 8-7 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +1.2 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.3 |
| 17 | 10-7 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.9 |
| 18 | 10-8 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +1.2 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.4 |
| 20 | 12-8 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Blocked | Isabella Bullington | blk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish | +1.9 |
| 21 | 12-9 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.1 |
| 22 | 13-9 | NW | GRNBAY×5 | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.5 |
| 23 | 14-9 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.8 |
| 24 | 15-9 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | +1.5 | |
| 25 | 16-9 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Ace | Green Bay | +1.2 | |
| 26 | 17-9 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Kirsten Fish | +0.9 |
| 27 | 17-10 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.4 |
| 28 | 18-10 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.6 |
| 29 | 19-10 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.5 |
| 30 | 19-11 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.2 |
| 31 | 19-12 | NW | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.4 |
| 32 | 20-12 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.5 |
| 33 | 20-13 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.2 | |
| 34 | 20-14 | NW | NW | Attack err | Diane Pichelman | +0.5 | |
| 35 | 21-14 | NW | GRNBAY | Blocked | Mara Stiglic | blk Diane Pichelman, Alexa Hernandez | +0.6 |
| 36 | 21-15 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.3 |
| 37 | 21-16 | NW | NW | Blocked | Diane Pichelman | blk Mara Stiglic | +0.6 |
| 38 | 22-16 | NW | GRNBAY | Blocked | Mara Stiglic | blk Diane Pichelman, Alexa Hernandez | +0.8 |
| 39 | 22-17 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.3 | |
| 40 | 23-17 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.7 |
| 41 | 23-18 | GRNBAY | NW×6 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.2 |
| 42 | 23-19 | NW | NW×6 | Blocked | Kayla Birmingham | blk Campbell Paris, Hayley Schaaf | +0.6 |
| 43 | 23-20 | NW | NW×6 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.0 |
| 44 | 23-21 | NW | NW×6 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.8 |
| 45 | 23-22 | NW | NW×6 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +3.0 |
| 46 | 23-23 | NW | NW×6 | Attack err | Kirsten Fish | +4.6 | |
| 47 | 24-23 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +4.5 |
| 48 | 24-24 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +4.5 |
| 49 | 25-24 | NW | GRNBAY | Blocked | Isabella Bullington | blk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish | +4.5 |
| 50 | 25-25 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +4.5 |
| 51 | 25-26 | NW | NW | Ace | Northwestern | aced Kendall Schara | +5.4 |
| 52 | 26-26 | NW | GRNBAY | Blocked | Mara Stiglic | blk Kirsten Fish, Diane Pichelman | +3.9 |
| 53 | 26-27 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Lauren Dignan | +3.9 |
| 54 | 27-27 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Alexa Hernandez | +3.9 |
| 55 | 27-28 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | set Lauren Dignan | +3.9 |
| 56 | 27-29 | NW | NW | Kill | Mara Stiglic | set Ellie Stiernagle | +4.6 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Macy Kline | +0.5 |
| 2 | 1-1 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.5 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | NW | NW | Blocked | Kelsey Justman | blk Campbell Paris, Kayla Kauffman | +0.6 |
| 4 | 2-2 | NW | GRNBAY | Serve err | Northwestern | +0.5 | |
| 5 | 2-3 | GRNBAY | NW×3 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.5 |
| 6 | 2-4 | NW | NW×3 | Attack err | Kelsey Justman | +0.6 | |
| 7 | 2-5 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Kayla Kauffman | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.5 |
| 8 | 3-5 | NW | GRNBAY×5 | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.4 |
| 9 | 4-5 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.6 |
| 10 | 5-5 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Attack err | Kayla Kauffman | +0.7 | |
| 11 | 6-5 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Bad set | Ellie Stiernagle | +0.8 | |
| 12 | 7-5 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×5 | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.8 |
| 13 | 7-6 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.6 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | NW | GRNBAY | Serve err | Northwestern | +0.7 | |
| 15 | 8-7 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.6 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Alexa Hernandez | set Kelsey Justman | +0.7 |
| 17 | 9-8 | GRNBAY | NW×5 | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Macy Kline | +0.6 |
| 18 | 9-9 | NW | NW×5 | Blocked | Olivia Neumann | blk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell | +0.8 |
| 19 | 9-10 | NW | NW×5 | Attack err | Kayla Birmingham | +0.8 | |
| 20 | 9-11 | NW | NW×5 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.7 |
| 21 | 9-12 | NW | NW×5 | Ace | Northwestern | +0.6 | |
| 22 | 10-12 | NW | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.4 |
| 23 | 11-12 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Attack err | Campbell Paris | +0.7 | |
| 24 | 12-12 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Ace | Green Bay | aced Ellie Stiernagle | +0.9 |
| 25 | 12-13 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.6 | |
| 26 | 13-13 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.7 |
| 27 | 13-14 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.7 |
| 28 | 14-14 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.7 |
| 29 | 14-15 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.7 |
| 30 | 15-15 | NW | GRNBAY | Blocked | Isabella Bullington | blk Kelsey Justman | +0.8 |
| 31 | 15-16 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.8 | |
| 32 | 16-16 | NW | GRNBAY×6 | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.8 |
| 33 | 17-16 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×6 | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.2 |
| 34 | 18-16 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×6 | Kill | Alexa Hernandez | set Kelsey Justman | +1.3 |
| 35 | 19-16 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×6 | Attack err | Mara Stiglic | +1.3 | |
| 36 | 20-16 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×6 | Attack err | Kayla Kauffman | +1.2 | |
| 37 | 21-16 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×6 | Blocked | Mara Stiglic | blk Olivia Neumann, Alexa Hernandez | +0.9 |
| 38 | 21-17 | GRNBAY | NW | Attack err | Kayla Birmingham | +0.3 | |
| 39 | 22-17 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.6 |
| 40 | 22-18 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +0.3 | |
| 41 | 22-19 | NW | NW | Blocked | Kayla Birmingham | blk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell | +0.6 |
| 42 | 23-19 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.8 |
| 43 | 24-19 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Blocked | Mara Stiglic | blk Olivia Neumann, Kelsey Justman | +0.6 |
| 44 | 24-20 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +0.1 |
| 45 | 25-20 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +0.3 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.4 |
| 2 | 1-1 | NW | GRNBAY×4 | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +1.5 |
| 3 | 2-1 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×4 | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Macy Kline | +2.3 |
| 4 | 3-1 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×4 | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.5 |
| 5 | 4-1 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×4 | Ace | Green Bay | aced Gigi Navarrete | +2.6 |
| 6 | 4-2 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.7 |
| 7 | 5-2 | NW | GRNBAY | Serve err | Northwestern | +2.0 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +1.7 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | NW | NW | Kill | Cate Schnell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.4 |
| 10 | 6-4 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.0 |
| 11 | 7-4 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.8 |
| 12 | 7-5 | GRNBAY | NW×3 | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.8 |
| 13 | 7-6 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Ellie Stiernagle | +2.6 | |
| 14 | 7-7 | NW | NW×3 | Blocked | Diane Pichelman | blk Maya Stillwell, Cate Schnell | +2.5 |
| 15 | 8-7 | NW | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.0 |
| 16 | 9-7 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Ace | Green Bay | +2.9 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Bad set | Ellie Stiernagle | +3.0 | |
| 18 | 10-8 | GRNBAY | NW×4 | Kill | Maya Stillwell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +1.9 |
| 19 | 10-9 | NW | NW×4 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.8 |
| 20 | 10-10 | NW | NW×4 | Attack err | Kayla Birmingham | +2.8 | |
| 21 | 10-11 | NW | NW×4 | Blocked | Kayla Birmingham | blk Maya Stillwell, Cate Schnell | +2.7 |
| 22 | 11-11 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.1 |
| 23 | 11-12 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +2.0 | |
| 24 | 12-12 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.2 |
| 25 | 13-12 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Attack err | Maya Stillwell | +3.3 | |
| 26 | 13-13 | GRNBAY | NW×3 | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.3 |
| 27 | 13-14 | NW | NW×3 | Blocked | Olivia Neumann | blk Hayley Schaaf | +3.1 |
| 28 | 13-15 | NW | NW×3 | Attack err | Kelsey Justman | +2.8 | |
| 29 | 14-15 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.0 |
| 30 | 15-15 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Ace | Green Bay | aced Gigi Navarrete | +3.3 |
| 31 | 15-16 | NW | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.5 | |||
| 32 | 16-16 | NW | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +2.6 |
| 33 | 17-16 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Bad set | Ellie Stiernagle | +4.1 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Blocked | Lily Wagner | blk Diane Pichelman, Alexa Hernandez | +4.4 |
| 35 | 18-17 | GRNBAY | NW | Attack err | Diane Pichelman | +2.8 | |
| 36 | 19-17 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Alexa Hernandez | +3.5 |
| 37 | 20-17 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +4.5 |
| 38 | 20-18 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Cate Schnell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +2.4 |
| 39 | 21-18 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Alexa Hernandez | set Kelsey Justman | +3.6 |
| 40 | 21-19 | GRNBAY | NW×3 | Serve err | Green Bay | +2.4 | |
| 41 | 21-20 | NW | NW×3 | Blocked | Kayla Birmingham | blk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell | +4.5 |
| 42 | 21-21 | NW | NW×3 | Blocked | Kayla Birmingham | blk Campbell Paris | +5.5 |
| 43 | 22-21 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Olivia Neumann | set Alexa Hernandez | +4.9 |
| 44 | 22-22 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +4.5 | |
| 45 | 23-22 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +5.8 |
| 46 | 24-22 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Blocked | Campbell Paris | blk Kelsey Justman, Olivia Neumann | +8.3 |
| 47 | 24-23 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +3.4 | |
| 48 | 25-23 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +9.7 |
| Set 5 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kelsey Justman | set Macy Kline | +6.4 |
| 2 | 2-0 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY | Blocked | Isabella Bullington | blk Diane Pichelman, Kirsten Fish | +9.3 |
| 3 | 2-1 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +6.1 |
| 4 | 3-1 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +7.2 |
| 5 | 3-2 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +6.3 | |
| 6 | 4-2 | NW | GRNBAY | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +7.5 |
| 7 | 4-3 | GRNBAY | NW×3 | Kill | Isabella Bullington | set Ellie Stiernagle | +6.6 |
| 8 | 4-4 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Cate Schnell | set Ellie Stiernagle | +9.4 |
| 9 | 4-5 | NW | NW×3 | Kill | Hayley Schaaf | set Ellie Stiernagle | +9.2 |
| 10 | 5-5 | NW | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +7.0 |
| 11 | 6-5 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Kayla Birmingham | set Alexa Hernandez | +10.9 |
| 12 | 7-5 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Ace | Green Bay | aced Isabella Bullington | +11.7 |
| 13 | 7-6 | GRNBAY | NW×4 | Attack err | Olivia Neumann | +7.4 | |
| 14 | 7-7 | NW | NW×4 | Attack err | Olivia Neumann | +11.1 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | NW | NW×4 | Attack err | Kayla Birmingham | +11.0 | |
| 16 | 7-9 | NW | NW×4 | Ace | Northwestern | aced Kelsey Justman | +10.0 |
| 17 | 8-9 | NW | GRNBAY | Serve err | Northwestern | +6.8 | |
| 18 | 8-10 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +7.7 | |
| 19 | 9-10 | NW | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Kirsten Fish | set Alexa Hernandez | +7.1 |
| 20 | 10-10 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Alexa Hernandez | set Kendall Schara | +13.1 |
| 21 | 11-10 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Blocked | Cate Schnell | blk Kirsten Fish, Kelsey Justman | +16.3 |
| 22 | 11-11 | GRNBAY | NW | Kill | Campbell Paris | set Ellie Stiernagle | +11.2 |
| 23 | 12-11 | NW | GRNBAY | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | +13.9 | |
| 24 | 12-12 | GRNBAY | NW | Serve err | Green Bay | +12.7 | |
| 25 | 13-12 | NW | GRNBAY×3 | Attack err | Isabella Bullington | +16.5 | |
| 26 | 14-12 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Kill | Diane Pichelman | set Alexa Hernandez | +23.6 |
| 27 | 15-12 | GRNBAY | GRNBAY×3 | Ace | Green Bay | +14.9 | |
Score shown after each rally, Green Bay first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).