Final · 5 setsSun, Sep 13, 2026

Green Bay def. Northwestern 3–2

Green Bay won at Northwestern 3-2 (9-25, 27-29, 25-20, 25-23, 15-12) on Sun, Sep 13, 2026. Diane Pichelman led Green Bay with 14 kills; Northwestern's Campbell Paris had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Sep 13

Set12345Sets
GRNBAY9272525153
NW25292023122

Win probability

Northwestern above 50 · Green Bay below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+23.6% GRNBAYrally 210 · set 5

Biggest swing: 23.6% to Green Bay — set 5, GRNBAY 14-12 NW. Kill by Diane Pichelman (set by Alexa Hernandez). NW win probability 39% → 15%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

GRNBAY 19.3%80.7% NW

Green Bay wins

3-0
3.1%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
9.8%

Northwestern wins

3-0
32.2%
3-1
30.4%
3-2
18.1%
GRNBAY break %
39.0% vs this opp
NW break %
45.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Diane PichelmanKill+23.6%

    Kill by Diane Pichelman (set by Alexa Hernandez)

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 14-12 NW · GRNBAY 61% → 85%

  2. 02
    Isabella BullingtonAttack error+16.5%

    Attack error by Isabella Bullington

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 13-12 NW · GRNBAY 45% → 61%

  3. 03

    Cate Schnell stuffed by Kirsten Fish & Kelsey Justman

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 11-10 NW · GRNBAY 39% → 55%

  4. 04
    Green BayAce+14.9%

    Green Bay ace

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 15-12 NW · GRNBAY 85% → 100%

  5. 05
    Isabella BullingtonAttack error+13.9%

    Attack error by Isabella Bullington

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 12-11 NW · GRNBAY 44% → 58%

  6. 06
    Alexa HernandezKill+13.1%

    Kill by Alexa Hernandez (set by Kendall Schara)

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 10-10 NW · GRNBAY 25% → 39%

  7. 07
    Green BayService error+12.7%

    Green Bay service error

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 12-12 NW · NW 42% → 55%

  8. 08
    Green BayAce+11.7%

    Green Bay ace on Isabella Bullington

    Set 5 · GRNBAY 7-5 NW · GRNBAY 47% → 59%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514430.3330243006319
513331.3231003006316
58437.108333181132.513.5
59627.11100010052.511.5
5509.5565004900427
1017-.143000000000
510939.0260003000010
5000–1221310002
5000–3221600002
5000–114710001
5000–000000000
1011-1.000000000000
1011-1.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5929182.16559101973412413101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520249.36700010132.522.5
5508.62547201610007
5318.250000400214
5001.0001111610001
45834-.088112220006
2203.667000301013
5000–0021320000
5000–2012400000
49014.64300010111.510.5
4318.25000000052.55.5
38832.0000001012210
3016-.167100310000
3000–000000000
1123-.33300000010.51.5
Team totals5623166.1995246841041411109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 GRNBAY · NW 12

Set 1

9-25

Longest run 4 GRNBAYNW 12

Set 2

27-29

Longest run 5 GRNBAYNW 6

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 6 GRNBAYNW 5

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 4 GRNBAYNW 4

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 3 GRNBAYNW 4

Bars above the line = Northwestern leads, below = Green Bay leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Green Bay

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%9/19
46%6/13
2
80%8/10
43%6/14
3
58%7/12
36%4/11
4
58%7/12
36%4/11
5
50%6/12
63%12/19
6
27%6/22
14%1/7
All
49%43/87
44%33/75

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
33%4/12
2
50%7/14
50%8/16
3
54%7/13
30%3/10
4
41%7/17
42%5/12
5
78%7/9
46%6/13
6
50%6/12
75%18/24
All
56%42/75
51%44/87

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

210 rallies

#GRNBAY-NWSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NWNW×3Attack errKirsten Fish+1.6
20-2NWNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Alexa Hernandez+1.5
30-3NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
41-3NWGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+1.0
51-4GRNBAYNWAttack errKelsey Justman+1.0
61-5NWNWAttack errKirsten Fish+1.2
72-5NWGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+0.8
82-6GRNBAYNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
92-7NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.0
103-7NWGRNBAYAttack errIsabella Bullington+0.7
113-8GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.7
123-9NWNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+0.8
134-9NWGRNBAY×4Serve errNorthwestern+0.5
145-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.9
156-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×4Attack errMara Stiglic+1.2
167-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×4AceGreen Bayaced Isabella Bullington+1.5
177-10GRNBAYNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Isabella Bullington+1.1
187-11NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
198-11NWGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.9
208-12GRNBAYNW×12KillGabrielle Gerryset Ellie Stiernagle+1.0
218-13NWNW×12KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
228-14NWNW×12Attack errGillian Koning+0.8
238-15NWNW×12KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.6
248-16NWNW×12AceNorthwesternaced Kennedy Schmitz+0.4
258-17NWNW×12BlockedOlivia Neumannblk Gabrielle Gerry+0.2
268-18NWNW×12Bad setAlexa Hernandez+0.1
278-19NWNW×12Attack errOlivia Neumann+0.1
288-20NWNW×12KillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright·
298-21NWNW×12KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle·
308-22NWNW×12KillGabrielle Gerryset Ellie Stiernagle·
318-23NWNW×12Attack errVictoria Kurilov·
329-23NWGRNBAYKillAlexa Hernandezset Kennedy Schmitz·
339-24GRNBAYNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle·
349-25NWNWAttack errSari Marks·
Set 2
10-1GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
20-2NWNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
31-2NWGRNBAYServe errNorthwestern+0.8
42-2GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+1.3
52-3GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
63-3NWGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+1.0
74-3GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+1.5
84-4GRNBAYNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.0
95-4NWGRNBAYBlockedMara Stiglicblk Kirsten Fish, Diane Pichelman+1.1
105-5GRNBAYNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Lily Wagner+1.0
115-6NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
126-6NWGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.1
137-6GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceGreen Bayaced Lily Wagner+1.6
148-6GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceGreen Bayaced Drew Wright+1.7
158-7GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+1.2
169-7NWGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+1.3
1710-7GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+1.9
1810-8GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+1.2
1911-8NWGRNBAYKillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+1.4
2012-8GRNBAYGRNBAYBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish+1.9
2112-9GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
2213-9NWGRNBAY×5KillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+1.5
2314-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×5KillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+1.8
2415-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×5Attack errIsabella Bullington+1.5
2516-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×5AceGreen Bay+1.2
2617-9GRNBAYGRNBAY×5KillKelsey Justmanset Kirsten Fish+0.9
2717-10GRNBAYNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.4
2818-10NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
2919-10GRNBAYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.5
3019-11GRNBAYNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+0.2
3119-12NWNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+0.4
3220-12NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+0.5
3320-13GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.2
3420-14NWNWAttack errDiane Pichelman+0.5
3521-14NWGRNBAYBlockedMara Stiglicblk Diane Pichelman, Alexa Hernandez+0.6
3621-15GRNBAYNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.3
3721-16NWNWBlockedDiane Pichelmanblk Mara Stiglic+0.6
3822-16NWGRNBAYBlockedMara Stiglicblk Diane Pichelman, Alexa Hernandez+0.8
3922-17GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.3
4023-17NWGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+0.7
4123-18GRNBAYNW×6KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.2
4223-19NWNW×6BlockedKayla Birminghamblk Campbell Paris, Hayley Schaaf+0.6
4323-20NWNW×6KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.0
4423-21NWNW×6KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
4523-22NWNW×6KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
4623-23NWNW×6Attack errKirsten Fish+4.6
4724-23NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+4.5
4824-24GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+4.5
4925-24NWGRNBAYBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Olivia Neumann, Kirsten Fish+4.5
5025-25GRNBAYNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+4.5
5125-26NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Kendall Schara+5.4
5226-26NWGRNBAYBlockedMara Stiglicblk Kirsten Fish, Diane Pichelman+3.9
5326-27GRNBAYNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Lauren Dignan+3.9
5427-27NWGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+3.9
5527-28GRNBAYNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Lauren Dignan+3.9
5627-29NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+4.6
Set 3
11-0NWGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Macy Kline+0.5
21-1GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.5
31-2NWNWBlockedKelsey Justmanblk Campbell Paris, Kayla Kauffman+0.6
42-2NWGRNBAYServe errNorthwestern+0.5
52-3GRNBAYNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
62-4NWNW×3Attack errKelsey Justman+0.6
72-5NWNW×3KillKayla Kauffmanset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
83-5NWGRNBAY×5KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.4
94-5GRNBAYGRNBAY×5KillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
105-5GRNBAYGRNBAY×5Attack errKayla Kauffman+0.7
116-5GRNBAYGRNBAY×5Bad setEllie Stiernagle+0.8
127-5GRNBAYGRNBAY×5KillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+0.8
137-6GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.6
148-6NWGRNBAYServe errNorthwestern+0.7
158-7GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.6
169-7NWGRNBAYKillAlexa Hernandezset Kelsey Justman+0.7
179-8GRNBAYNW×5KillMaya Stillwellset Macy Kline+0.6
189-9NWNW×5BlockedOlivia Neumannblk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell+0.8
199-10NWNW×5Attack errKayla Birmingham+0.8
209-11NWNW×5KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.7
219-12NWNW×5AceNorthwestern+0.6
2210-12NWGRNBAY×3KillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+0.4
2311-12GRNBAYGRNBAY×3Attack errCampbell Paris+0.7
2412-12GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceGreen Bayaced Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
2512-13GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.6
2613-13NWGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+0.7
2713-14GRNBAYNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+0.7
2814-14NWGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.7
2914-15GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.7
3015-15NWGRNBAYBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Kelsey Justman+0.8
3115-16GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.8
3216-16NWGRNBAY×6KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+0.8
3317-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×6KillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+1.2
3418-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×6KillAlexa Hernandezset Kelsey Justman+1.3
3519-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×6Attack errMara Stiglic+1.3
3620-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×6Attack errKayla Kauffman+1.2
3721-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×6BlockedMara Stiglicblk Olivia Neumann, Alexa Hernandez+0.9
3821-17GRNBAYNWAttack errKayla Birmingham+0.3
3922-17NWGRNBAYKillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+0.6
4022-18GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+0.3
4122-19NWNWBlockedKayla Birminghamblk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell+0.6
4223-19NWGRNBAYKillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+0.8
4324-19GRNBAYGRNBAYBlockedMara Stiglicblk Olivia Neumann, Kelsey Justman+0.6
4424-20GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
4525-20NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+0.3
Set 4
10-1GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
21-1NWGRNBAY×4KillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+1.5
32-1GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillKelsey Justmanset Macy Kline+2.3
43-1GRNBAYGRNBAY×4KillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.5
54-1GRNBAYGRNBAY×4AceGreen Bayaced Gigi Navarrete+2.6
64-2GRNBAYNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
75-2NWGRNBAYServe errNorthwestern+2.0
85-3GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+1.7
95-4NWNWKillCate Schnellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.4
106-4NWGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.0
117-4GRNBAYGRNBAYKillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+2.8
127-5GRNBAYNW×3KillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
137-6NWNW×3KillEllie Stiernagle+2.6
147-7NWNW×3BlockedDiane Pichelmanblk Maya Stillwell, Cate Schnell+2.5
158-7NWGRNBAY×3KillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+2.0
169-7GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceGreen Bay+2.9
1710-7GRNBAYGRNBAY×3Bad setEllie Stiernagle+3.0
1810-8GRNBAYNW×4KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
1910-9NWNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
2010-10NWNW×4Attack errKayla Birmingham+2.8
2110-11NWNW×4BlockedKayla Birminghamblk Maya Stillwell, Cate Schnell+2.7
2211-11NWGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+2.1
2311-12GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+2.0
2412-12NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+2.2
2513-12GRNBAYGRNBAYAttack errMaya Stillwell+3.3
2613-13GRNBAYNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.3
2713-14NWNW×3BlockedOlivia Neumannblk Hayley Schaaf+3.1
2813-15NWNW×3Attack errKelsey Justman+2.8
2914-15NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+2.0
3015-15GRNBAYGRNBAYAceGreen Bayaced Gigi Navarrete+3.3
3115-16NW
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
3216-16NWGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+2.6
3317-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×3Bad setEllie Stiernagle+4.1
3418-16GRNBAYGRNBAY×3BlockedLily Wagnerblk Diane Pichelman, Alexa Hernandez+4.4
3518-17GRNBAYNWAttack errDiane Pichelman+2.8
3619-17NWGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Alexa Hernandez+3.5
3720-17GRNBAYGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+4.5
3820-18GRNBAYNWKillCate Schnellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.4
3921-18NWGRNBAYKillAlexa Hernandezset Kelsey Justman+3.6
4021-19GRNBAYNW×3Serve errGreen Bay+2.4
4121-20NWNW×3BlockedKayla Birminghamblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell+4.5
4221-21NWNW×3BlockedKayla Birminghamblk Campbell Paris+5.5
4322-21NWGRNBAYKillOlivia Neumannset Alexa Hernandez+4.9
4422-22GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+4.5
4523-22NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+5.8
4624-22GRNBAYGRNBAYBlockedCampbell Parisblk Kelsey Justman, Olivia Neumann+8.3
4724-23GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+3.4
4825-23NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+9.7
Set 5
11-0NWGRNBAYKillKelsey Justmanset Macy Kline+6.4
22-0GRNBAYGRNBAYBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Diane Pichelman, Kirsten Fish+9.3
32-1GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+6.1
43-1NWGRNBAYKillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+7.2
53-2GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+6.3
64-2NWGRNBAYKillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+7.5
74-3GRNBAYNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+6.6
84-4NWNW×3KillCate Schnellset Ellie Stiernagle+9.4
94-5NWNW×3KillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+9.2
105-5NWGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+7.0
116-5GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillKayla Birminghamset Alexa Hernandez+10.9
127-5GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceGreen Bayaced Isabella Bullington+11.7
137-6GRNBAYNW×4Attack errOlivia Neumann+7.4
147-7NWNW×4Attack errOlivia Neumann+11.1
157-8NWNW×4Attack errKayla Birmingham+11.0
167-9NWNW×4AceNorthwesternaced Kelsey Justman+10.0
178-9NWGRNBAYServe errNorthwestern+6.8
188-10GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+7.7
199-10NWGRNBAY×3KillKirsten Fishset Alexa Hernandez+7.1
2010-10GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillAlexa Hernandezset Kendall Schara+13.1
2111-10GRNBAYGRNBAY×3BlockedCate Schnellblk Kirsten Fish, Kelsey Justman+16.3
2211-11GRNBAYNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+11.2
2312-11NWGRNBAYAttack errIsabella Bullington+13.9
2412-12GRNBAYNWServe errGreen Bay+12.7
2513-12NWGRNBAY×3Attack errIsabella Bullington+16.5
2614-12GRNBAYGRNBAY×3KillDiane Pichelmanset Alexa Hernandez+23.6
2715-12GRNBAYGRNBAY×3AceGreen Bay+14.9

Score shown after each rally, Green Bay first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).