FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeHORIZON

Northwestern def. IU Indy 3–0

(25-20, 24-20, 25-23)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
NW	25	24	25	3
IUINDY	20	20	23	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IUINDY above 50 · NW below

Biggest swing: 2.5% to IU Indy — set 1, NW 15-15 IUINDY. IU Indy ace on Isabella Bullington. IUINDY win probability 15% → 17%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NW 84.4%15.6% IUINDY

Northwestern wins

3-0

36.4%

3-1

31.2%

3-2

16.8%

IU Indy wins

3-0

2.3%

3-1

5.0%

3-2

8.2%

NW break %: 44.6% vs this opp
IUINDY break %: 37.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
IUINDY serverAce+2.5%
IU Indy ace on Isabella Bullington
Set 1 · NW 15-15 IUINDY · IUINDY 15% → 17%
02
Bailey SinishKill+2.4%
Kill by Bailey Sinish (set by Lexi Grissett)
Set 1 · NW 20-19 IUINDY · IUINDY 12% → 14%
03
Mara StiglicKill+2.4%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · NW 18-16 IUINDY · NW 84% → 87%
04
Mara StiglicKill+2.2%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · NW 22-19 IUINDY · NW 88% → 90%
05
Mara StiglicKill+2.0%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · NW 21-19 IUINDY · NW 86% → 88%
06
Mara StiglicKill+2.0%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · NW 19-16 IUINDY · NW 87% → 89%
07
Isabella BullingtonAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Isabella Bullington
Set 1 · NW 14-13 IUINDY · IUINDY 13% → 15%
08
Jillian TippmannKill+1.9%
Kill by Jillian Tippmann (set by Grace Purichia)
Set 1 · NW 16-16 IUINDY · IUINDY 15% → 17%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northwesternaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Mara StiglicOH	3	15	3	31	.387	1	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	16.5
22Isabella BullingtonOH	3	14	1	23	.565	0	1	7	2	1	0	1	15
25Campbell ParisOH	3	13	4	29	.310	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13
17Maya StillwellMB	3	3	0	7	.429	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
11Ellie StiernagleS	3	1	0	5	.200	38	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
2Drew WrightL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	10	2	0	0	0	0
9Hayley SchaafMB	3	1	2	9	-.111	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
16Ava PrattOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
23Gigi NavarreteL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	2	8	0	0	0	0	0
7Lauren DignanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	18	1	0	0	0	0
20Lily WagnerOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	11	109	.330	46	3	56	6	1	6	4	75

IU Indyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BA	BLK	PTS
14Bailey SinishOH	3	16	6	36	.278	2	0	2	7	0	0	16
4Jillian TippmannOPP	3	11	7	29	.138	1	2	2	9	1	0.5	13.5
24Chloe MaciasMB	3	7	1	16	.375	0	0	0	1	3	1.5	8.5
2Grace PurichiaS	3	2	1	10	.100	31	2	1	7	0	0	4
18Ninah MirandaOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	7	0	0	0
15Amanda StephensMB	2	0	2	8	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
11Elle PattersonOH	3	5	4	21	.048	0	1	0	1	1	0.5	6.5
12Laura RoederL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	3	1	0	13	0	0	2
5Kate WhiteOPP	3	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
7Lexi GrissettS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Lila BrittMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		43	22	130	.162	39	6	5	47	6	3	63

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 NW · IUINDY 5

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 NWIUINDY 3

Set 2*

24-20

Longest run 4 NWIUINDY 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 7 NWIUINDY 5

Bars above the line = IU Indy leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northwestern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	70%7/10
2	57%4/7	67%8/12
3	80%4/5	43%3/7
4	50%4/8	43%3/7
5	80%4/5	0%0/4
6	33%4/12	50%4/8
All	56%25/45	52%25/48

IU Indy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%4/12	38%3/8
2	57%4/7	43%3/7
3	57%4/7	20%1/5
4	100%4/4	50%4/8
5	50%4/8	20%1/5
6	30%3/10	67%8/12
All	48%23/48	44%20/45

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	NW-IUINDY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
2	1-1	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+1.1
3	2-1	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Lauren Dignan	+1.0
4	3-1	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Gigi Navarrete	+1.4
5	3-2	NW	IUINDY	Serve err	NW server		+1.0
6	4-2	IUINDY	NW×4	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.9
7	5-2	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Elle Patterson		+1.2
8	6-2	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Elle Patterson		+1.0
9	7-2	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
10	7-3	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Laura Roeder	+0.5
11	7-4	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf		+1.0
12	8-4	IUINDY	NW	Attack err	Elle Patterson		+0.7
13	8-5	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Grace Purichia	set Bailey Sinish	+0.7
14	9-5	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
15	10-5	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.9
16	10-6	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.5
17	10-7	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Kate White, Chloe Macias	+1.0
18	11-7	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
19	11-8	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+0.7
20	11-9	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Lauren Dignan	+1.3
21	12-9	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Lauren Dignan	+1.0
22	13-9	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Mara Stiglic	+1.2
23	13-10	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+0.7
24	13-11	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Laura Roeder	+1.4
25	14-11	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
26	14-12	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+1.0
27	14-13	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+1.9
28	15-13	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Gigi Navarrete	+1.4
29	15-14	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Laura Roeder	set Grace Purichia	+1.4
30	15-15	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Isabella Bullington	+2.5
31	16-15	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
32	16-16	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+1.9
33	17-16	IUINDY	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
34	18-16	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.4
35	19-16	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.0
36	20-16	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Amanda Stephens		+1.4
37	20-17	NW	IUINDY×3	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.7
38	20-18	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Lexi Grissett	+1.6
39	20-19	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Lexi Grissett	+2.4
40	21-19	IUINDY	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.0
41	22-19	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.2
42	23-19	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+1.3
43	23-20	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Grace Purichia	set Bailey Sinish	+0.4
44	24-20	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris		+0.7
45	25-20	NW	NW	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann	blk Isabella Bullington	+0.3
Set 2
1	1-0	NW	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
2	2-0	NW	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Gigi Navarrete	+0.9
3	2-1	NW	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.7
4	2-2	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+1.1
5	2-3	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+1.3
6	3-3	IUINDY	NW	Serve err	IUINDY server		+0.8
7	3-4	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+0.9
8	4-4	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
9	4-5	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+0.9
10	5-5	IUINDY	NW	Serve err	IUINDY server		+0.9
11	6-5	NW	NW	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+1.2
12	6-6	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+0.9
13	7-6	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
14	7-7	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.9
15	8-7	IUINDY	NW	Attack err	Bailey Sinish	blk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell	+0.9
16	8-8	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Laura Roeder	+0.9
17	9-8	IUINDY	NW×3	Attack err	Lila Britt		+0.9
18	10-8	NW	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
19	11-8	NW	NW×3	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
20	11-9	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.7
21	12-9	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
22	12-10	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+0.7
23	13-10	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
24	13-11	NW	IUINDY	Serve err	NW server		+0.7
25	14-11	IUINDY	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Gigi Navarrete	+0.8
26	15-11	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Elle Patterson	blk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell	+0.9
27	16-11	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
28	16-12	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+0.4
29	17-12	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
30	17-13	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.3
31	18-13	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
32	18-14	NW	IUINDY	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.3
33	19-14	IUINDY	NW	Serve err	IUINDY server		+0.4
34	19-15	NW	IUINDY	Serve err	NW server		+0.3
35	20-15	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
36	20-16	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Lila Britt	set Grace Purichia	+0.3
37	20-17	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Isabella Bullington	+0.7
38	21-17	IUINDY	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.7
39	22-17	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.6
40	23-17	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Bailey Sinish	blk Hayley Schaaf, Mara Stiglic	+0.2
41	24-17	NW	NW×4	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
42	24-18	NW	IUINDY×3	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+0.0
43	24-19	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+0.0
44	24-20	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf	blk Elle Patterson, Chloe Macias	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+0.6
2	1-1	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
3	1-2	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.4
4	1-3	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+0.7
5	2-3	IUINDY	NW×3	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.4
6	3-3	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+0.6
7	4-3	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Bailey Sinish		+0.6
8	4-4	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Jillian Tippmann	+0.4
9	5-4	IUINDY	NW	Serve err	IUINDY server		+0.4
10	5-5	NW	IUINDY×3	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+0.4
11	5-6	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Jillian Tippmann, Chloe Macias	+0.7
12	5-7	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.8
13	6-7	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
14	6-8	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.6
15	6-9	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Drew Wright	+0.8
16	7-9	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
17	7-10	NW	IUINDY×5	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+0.6
18	7-11	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Drew Wright	+0.9
19	7-12	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+0.8
20	7-13	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Bailey Sinish		+0.7
21	7-14	IUINDY	IUINDY×5	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.6
22	8-14	IUINDY	NW×6	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.3
23	9-14	NW	NW×6	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
24	10-14	NW	NW×6	Attack err	Chloe Macias		+0.6
25	11-14	NW	NW×6	Attack err	Bailey Sinish		+0.8
26	12-14	NW	NW×6	Attack err	Grace Purichia		+0.8
27	13-14	NW	NW×6	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.9
28	13-15	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.7
29	13-16	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+1.1
30	14-16	IUINDY	NW×7	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Drew Wright	+0.6
31	15-16	NW	NW×7	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+1.0
32	16-16	NW	NW×7	Attack err	Bailey Sinish		+1.0
33	17-16	NW	NW×7	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+1.0
34	18-16	NW	NW×7	Attack err	Bailey Sinish		+0.9
35	19-16	NW	NW×7	Attack err	Amanda Stephens		+0.7
36	20-16	NW	NW×7	Attack err	Bailey Sinish		+0.5
37	20-17	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.2
38	20-18	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Hayley Schaaf	+0.6
39	21-18	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.5
40	21-19	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+0.4
41	22-19	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.6
42	22-20	NW	IUINDY	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+0.4
43	23-20	IUINDY	NW	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+0.6
44	23-21	NW	IUINDY	Attack err	Lily Wagner		+0.3
45	24-21	IUINDY	NW	Serve err	IUINDY server		+0.6
46	24-22	NW	IUINDY	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+0.2
47	24-23	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+0.8
48	25-23	IUINDY	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.