Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Ohio def. Western Mich. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Mich. 67.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Ohio beat visiting Western Mich. 3-2 (25-16, 25-22, 21-25, 24-26, 15-6) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Ohio's Rose Mahin led with 16 kills, and Darbi Ricketts added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set12345Sets
W MICH1622252662
OHIO25252124153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Rowan Kelly set 52 assists as Ohio outlasted Western Mich.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Ohio's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Western Mich. went in at 67% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Western Mich. 9–13 Ohio

    5 straight Western Mich. points turned a 9–13 deficit into a 14–13 lead.

    Ohio 86% → 62%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Western Mich. 23–23 Ohio

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Western Mich., enough to take the set 26–24 and level the match at 2–2. The match swung to Western Mich.

    Ohio 66% → 44%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Western Mich. 2–4 Ohio

    Ohio had 3 straight kills to stretch a 4–2 lead to 7–2.

    Ohio 65% → 88%

Ohio above 50Western Mich. belowMax swing 12.5%

Western Mich.Ohio

Sideout %
Western Mich. 60.6·Ohio 69.8
Break %
Western Mich. 30.2·Ohio 39.4
Hitting
Western Mich. .179·Ohio .329
Longest run
Western Mich. 5·Ohio 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Ohio above 50 · Western Mich. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+12.5% W MICHrally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 12.5% to Western Mich. — set 4, W MICH 26-24 OHIO. Rose Mahin stuffed by Leah Richmond. OHIO win probability 56% → 44%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

W MICH 57.7%42.3% OHIO

Western Mich. wins

3-0
16.0%
3-1
22.0%
3-2
19.7%

Ohio wins

3-0
9.5%
3-1
15.5%
3-2
17.2%
W MICH break %
39.6% vs this opp
OHIO break %
38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Leah RichmondBlock+12.5%

    Rose Mahin stuffed by Leah Richmond

    Set 4 · W MICH 26-24 OHIO · W MICH 44% → 56%

  2. 02
    Izzy SwierczAttack error+11.6%

    Attack error by Izzy Swiercz

    Set 4 · W MICH 23-23 OHIO · OHIO 55% → 66%

  3. 03
    Izzy SwierczKill+9.8%

    Kill by Izzy Swiercz (set by Leah Richmond)

    Set 4 · W MICH 24-23 OHIO · W MICH 34% → 44%

  4. 04
    Carley PiercefieldService error+9.8%

    Service error by Carley Piercefield

    Set 4 · W MICH 24-24 OHIO · OHIO 56% → 66%

  5. 05
    OhioService error+9.8%

    Ohio service error

    Set 4 · W MICH 25-24 OHIO · W MICH 34% → 44%

  6. 06
    Olivia GardnerBlock+9.7%

    Annalise Patchett stuffed by Olivia Gardner

    Set 5 · W MICH 1-4 OHIO · OHIO 61% → 70%

  7. 07
    Rowan KellyAce+9.7%

    Ace by Rowan Kelly on Elana Erickson

    Set 5 · W MICH 0-2 OHIO · OHIO 50% → 60%

  8. 08
    Rose MahinKill+9.0%

    Kill by Rose Mahin (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 5 · W MICH 2-6 OHIO · OHIO 72% → 81%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516441.29311070010.517.5
513938.10502214010116
59423.21710020010.59.5
5319.2223801801014
53220.050102820003
2227.000000000002
57417.176012200008
5001.0003012210000
3000–400100000
2206.333000000002
Team totals5526162.179484864622395
Ohiohome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516441.2932036302117
514329.3790137010116
512431.25821115002114
512122.50000020111.513.5
58225.2400123004211
5307.429522580010.55.5
5000–1121610001
5000–100900000
1000–000000000
Team totals6514155.329586166642107110

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 W MICH · OHIO 4

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 W MICHOHIO 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 W MICHOHIO 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 5 W MICHOHIO 3

Set 4

26-24

Longest run 5 W MICHOHIO 4

Set 5

6-15

Longest run 1 W MICHOHIO 4

Bars above the line = Ohio leads, below = Western Mich. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Western Mich.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
23%3/13
2
71%10/14
38%6/16
3
56%9/16
18%2/11
4
53%8/15
47%7/15
5
70%7/10
47%7/15
6
58%7/12
30%3/10
All
61%51/84
35%28/80

Ohio

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
43%6/14
2
64%9/14
41%7/17
3
64%9/14
25%3/12
4
57%8/14
47%8/17
5
67%8/12
38%5/13
6
64%7/11
36%4/11
All
65%52/80
39%33/84

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#W MICH-OHIOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1OHIOOHIOBad setLeah Richmond+2.5
20-2OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.6
31-2OHIOW MICHAttack errLeah Richmond+1.6
41-3W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.7
52-3OHIOW MICHAttack errAnnalise Patchett+1.6
62-4W MICHOHIOServe errLeah Richmond+1.8
73-4OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+1.6
83-5W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.8
94-5OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Carley Piercefield+1.7
104-6W MICHOHIOKillRowan Kellyset Elana Erickson+1.9
115-6OHIOW MICHAttack errGentry Brown+1.7
126-6W MICHW MICHKillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+2.8
136-7W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.9
147-7OHIOW MICHKillCassidy Pratleyset Leah Richmond+1.8
157-8W MICHOHIOAttack errAnnalise Patchett+2.0
168-8OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+1.9
178-9W MICHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.0
189-9OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+1.9
199-10W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.1
209-11OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.3
2110-11OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Carley Piercefield+1.9
2210-12W MICHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.2
2311-12OHIOW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+2.0
2411-13W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.3
2511-14OHIOOHIOBlockedCassidy Pratleyblk Emily Waddell, Gentry Brown+3.4
2612-14OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+1.9
2712-15W MICHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.3
2813-15OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.9
2913-16W MICHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.4
3013-17OHIOOHIO×3Attack errLeah Richmond+3.2
3113-18OHIOOHIO×3AceRowan Kellyaced Carley Piercefield+2.5
3214-18OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+1.1
3314-19W MICHOHIOAttack errGabby Weihe+1.6
3415-19OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+1.0
3515-20W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.6
3615-21OHIOOHIOAttack errAnnalise Patchett+1.5
3716-21OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+0.4
3816-22W MICHOHIO×4KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.8
3916-23OHIOOHIO×4KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.5
4016-24OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
4116-25OHIOOHIO×4KillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly·
Set 2
10-1W MICHOHIOBad setLeah Richmond+2.0
21-1OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.9
31-2W MICHOHIOAttack errAnnalise Patchett+2.0
42-2OHIOW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+1.9
52-3W MICHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.1
62-4OHIOOHIO×3Attack errGabby Weihe+3.3
72-5OHIOOHIO×3Attack errAnnalise Patchett+3.3
83-5OHIOW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+1.9
94-5W MICHW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Leah Richmond+3.2
104-6W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.3
115-6OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+2.1
125-7W MICHOHIO×3BlockedIzzy Swierczblk Emily Waddell, Rose Mahin+2.3
135-8OHIOOHIO×3KillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+3.5
145-9OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.4
156-9OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.8
167-9W MICHW MICHAttack errEmily Waddell+3.2
177-10W MICHOHIO×3KillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.4
187-11OHIOOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+3.5
197-12OHIOOHIO×3Attack errElana Erickson+3.1
208-12OHIOW MICHKillBri Zimmermanset Rowan Kelly+1.5
218-13W MICHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.0
229-13OHIOW MICHKillBri Zimmermanset Riley Messenger+1.5
239-14W MICHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.1
2410-14OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.5
2510-15W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.1
2611-15OHIOW MICHBlockedBailey Blairblk Annalise Patchett+1.5
2712-15W MICHW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Carley Piercefield+3.0
2812-16W MICHOHIOBad setLeah Richmond+2.5
2913-16OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.9
3013-17W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahin+2.6
3114-17OHIOW MICHKillElana Ericksonset Izzy Swiercz+1.9
3214-18W MICHOHIOKillRowan Kellyset Riley Messenger+2.6
3315-18OHIOW MICHKillMia Jurkovicset Riley Messenger+1.8
3415-19W MICHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.6
3516-19OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Riley Messenger+1.8
3616-20W MICHOHIOServe errWestern Mich.+2.7
3717-20OHIOW MICHKillMia Jurkovicset Riley Messenger+1.7
3817-21W MICHOHIOBlockedAnnalise Patchettblk Bailey Blair+2.7
3917-22OHIOOHIOAttack errIzzy Swiercz+2.6
4018-22OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Gabby Weihe+0.7
4118-23W MICHOHIOServe errWestern Mich.+1.4
4218-24OHIOOHIOServe errOhio+0.8
4319-24OHIOW MICH×4Serve errOhio+0.1
4420-24W MICHW MICH×4Attack errGentry Brown+0.3
4521-24W MICHW MICH×4Attack errAnnalise Patchett+0.8
4622-24W MICHW MICH×4Attack errRose Mahin+2.1
4722-25W MICHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+3.5
Set 3
10-1OHIOOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.4
21-1OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.5
32-1W MICHW MICHAceWestern Mich.aced Rose Mahin+2.3
42-2W MICHOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.5
52-3OHIOOHIO×3AceOhioaced Elana Erickson+2.5
62-4OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.6
73-4OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+1.6
84-4W MICHW MICHKillBri Zimmermanset Leah Richmond+2.5
94-5W MICHOHIOAttack errBri Zimmerman+1.7
104-6OHIOOHIOAceOhio+2.7
115-6OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+1.6
125-7W MICHOHIOAttack errAnnalise Patchett+1.8
136-7OHIOW MICHKillLeah Richmond+1.7
147-7W MICHW MICHKillBri Zimmermanset Leah Richmond+2.7
157-8W MICHOHIOServe errWestern Mich.+1.9
168-8OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.8
178-9W MICHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.9
189-9OHIOW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+1.8
199-10W MICHOHIOBlockedGabby Weiheblk Olivia Gardner, Rowan Kelly+2.0
209-11OHIOOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.2
2110-11OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.9
2210-12W MICHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.1
2311-12OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+1.9
2411-13W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.2
2512-13OHIOW MICH×5KillBri Zimmermanset Leah Richmond+2.0
2613-13W MICHW MICH×5KillLeah Richmondset Darbi Ricketts+3.3
2714-13W MICHW MICH×5Attack errBailey Blair+3.4
2815-13W MICHW MICH×5Attack errElana Erickson+3.2
2916-13W MICHW MICH×5AceWestern Mich.aced Rose Mahin+2.8
3016-14W MICHOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.5
3116-15OHIOOHIO×3AceOhio+3.0
3216-16OHIOOHIO×3BlockedBri Zimmermanblk Emily Waddell, Rose Mahin+3.7
3317-16OHIOW MICH×3Attack errRose Mahin+2.5
3418-16W MICHW MICH×3KillLeah Richmondset Rowan Kelly+3.7
3519-16W MICHW MICH×3KillAnnalise Patchett+3.1
3619-17W MICHOHIOServe errWestern Mich.+1.6
3720-17OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+2.1
3820-18W MICHOHIOAttack errAnnalise Patchett+1.6
3920-19OHIOOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+3.6
4021-19OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+2.9
4122-19W MICHW MICHAttack errGentry Brown+3.5
4222-20W MICHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.4
4323-20OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+2.3
4424-20W MICHW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Izzy Swiercz+1.8
4524-21W MICHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Carley Piercefield+0.3
4625-21OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+0.7
Set 4
10-1W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.7
21-1OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Elana Erickson+2.6
31-2W MICHOHIOAttack errGabby Weihe+2.7
42-2OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+2.6
53-2W MICHW MICHKillBri Zimmermanset Leah Richmond+4.1
63-3W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.7
73-4OHIOOHIOKillEmily Waddell+4.4
84-4OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+2.7
94-5W MICHOHIO×4KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.9
104-6OHIOOHIO×4Attack errIzzy Swiercz+4.7
114-7OHIOOHIO×4KillEmily Waddellset Darbi Ricketts+4.7
124-8OHIOOHIO×4Attack errRose Mahin+4.4
135-8OHIOW MICHAttack errEmily Waddell+2.4
145-9W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Caroline Curran+3.0
155-10OHIOOHIOBlockedCassidy Pratleyblk Gentry Brown, Emily Waddell+4.1
166-10OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+2.1
176-11W MICHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.7
186-12OHIOOHIOAceEmily Waddell+3.5
197-12OHIOW MICH×3Attack errGentry Brown+1.7
208-12W MICHW MICH×3KillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+3.3
219-12W MICHW MICH×3KillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+4.0
229-13W MICHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+3.2
2310-13OHIOW MICH×5Serve errOhio+2.5
2411-13W MICHW MICH×5BlockedOlivia Gardnerblk Izzy Swiercz, Gabby Weihe+4.7
2512-13W MICHW MICH×5Attack errIzzy Swiercz+5.3
2613-13W MICHW MICH×5Attack errBailey Blair+5.7
2714-13W MICHW MICH×5AceAnnalise Patchettaced Rose Mahin+5.8
2814-14W MICHOHIOServe errAnnalise Patchett+3.8
2915-14OHIOW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+3.8
3015-15W MICHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.9
3116-15OHIOW MICHAttack errRose Mahin+4.0
3216-16W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+4.1
3316-17OHIOOHIOAttack errBri Zimmerman+7.1
3417-17OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+4.4
3518-17W MICHW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+7.2
3618-18W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Gentry Brown+4.6
3719-18OHIOW MICH×3KillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+4.9
3820-18W MICHW MICH×3Bad setRowan Kelly+7.2
3921-18W MICHW MICH×3AceBri Zimmermanaced Darbi Ricketts+5.7
4021-19W MICHOHIOServe errBri Zimmerman+2.6
4122-19OHIOW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+3.8
4222-20W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.4
4322-21OHIOOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Leah Richmond+6.5
4423-21OHIOW MICHKillAnnalise Patchettset Leah Richmond+6.1
4523-22W MICHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+4.2
4623-23OHIOOHIOAttack errIzzy Swiercz+11.6
4724-23OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+9.8
4824-24W MICHOHIOServe errCarley Piercefield+9.8
4925-24OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+9.8
5026-24W MICHW MICHBlockedRose Mahinblk Leah Richmond+12.5
Set 5
10-1W MICHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rose Mahin+6.1
20-2OHIOOHIOAceRowan Kellyaced Elana Erickson+9.7
31-2OHIOW MICHKillBri Zimmermanset Darbi Ricketts+5.7
41-3W MICHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+6.6
51-4OHIOOHIOBlockedAnnalise Patchettblk Olivia Gardner+9.7
62-4OHIOW MICHKillGabby Weiheset Leah Richmond+5.3
72-5W MICHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+6.6
82-6OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+9.0
92-7OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+7.3
103-7OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+3.2
113-8W MICHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Gentry Brown+4.7
124-8OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+3.1
134-9W MICHOHIOKillRowan Kellyset Carley Piercefield+4.6
145-9OHIOW MICHKillIzzy Swierczset Leah Richmond+2.8
155-10W MICHOHIOAttack errElana Erickson+4.5
165-11OHIOOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rose Mahin+4.2
176-11OHIOW MICHServe errOhio+1.3
186-12W MICHOHIO×4KillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.4
196-13OHIOOHIO×4Attack errAnnalise Patchett+1.5
206-14OHIOOHIO×4Attack errBri Zimmerman+0.4
216-15OHIOOHIO×4KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Western Mich. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).