FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayCAA

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Penn St. def. Hofstra 3–0

(25-20, 25-9, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOFSTR	20	9	23	0
PENNST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PENNST above 50 · HOFSTR below

Biggest swing: 1.4% to Hofstra — set 1, HOFSTR 3-1 PENNST. Ryla Jones stuffed by Julia Amorim & Constanza Perez Sain. PENNST win probability 88% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOFSTR 11.1%88.9% PENNST

Hofstra wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.4%

3-2

6.1%

Penn St. wins

3-0

42.7%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.6%

HOFSTR break %: 40.0% vs this opp
PENNST break %: 49.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ryla JonesAttack error+1.4%
Ryla Jones stuffed by Julia Amorim & Constanza Perez Sain
Set 1 · HOFSTR 3-1 PENNST · HOFSTR 12% → 14%
02
Nil KayaalpKill+1.2%
Kill by Nil Kayaalp (set by Beatriz Braga)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 2-1 PENNST · HOFSTR 11% → 12%
03
PENNST serverAce+1.2%
Penn St. ace on Maria Afonso
Set 1 · HOFSTR 3-3 PENNST · PENNST 87% → 89%
04
Haley BurgdorfKill+1.2%
Kill by Haley Burgdorf (set by Alexis Stucky)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 5-6 PENNST · PENNST 88% → 90%
05
Julia AmorimKill+1.1%
Kill by Julia Amorim (set by Sonja Rundcrantz)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 5-4 PENNST · HOFSTR 11% → 13%
06
Geovanna Gonçalves RochaAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha
Set 1 · HOFSTR 6-8 PENNST · PENNST 90% → 91%
07
Julia AmorimKill+1.1%
Kill by Julia Amorim (set by Ellie Pamatat)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 4-3 PENNST · HOFSTR 11% → 12%
08
Kennedy MartinKill+1.1%
Kill by Kennedy Martin (set by Alexis Stucky)
Set 3 · HOFSTR 23-25 PENNST · PENNST 99% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Hofstraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Beatriz BragaOH	3	6	3	22	.136	1	0	3	6	0	1	2	2	8
3Maria AfonsoOH	3	7	2	15	.333	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	7.5
21Constanza Perez SainOH	3	6	3	23	.130	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
19Julia AmorimMB	3	4	1	8	.375	0	0	4	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
16Geovanna Gonçalves RochaOH	3	1	2	3	-.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	3.5
11Ellie PamatatS	3	0	2	2	-1.000	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Dawn PenaOH	3	1	2	5	-.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
5Nil KayaalpL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	1	0	4	2	0	0	0	2
6Sonja RundcrantzS	3	0	0	0	–	9	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
22Lauren KonzenDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	15	79	.139	26	2	9	20	5	1	16	9	52

Penn St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Kennedy MartinOH	3	17	2	27	.556	0	3	2	8	0	0	1	0.5	20.5
26Whitney LauensteinOH	3	14	6	33	.242	1	1	2	3	0	1	2	2	17
5Alexis StuckyS	3	1	1	2	.000	31	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
23Haley BurgdorfOH	3	1	0	2	.500	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
8Gabrielle NicholsMB	2	4	0	4	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	5
7Ryla JonesMB	2	3	3	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
42Finley KrystkowiakOH	3	2	3	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Ava FaldutoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	13	1	0	0	0	0
11Jocelyn NathanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Kendall NorthernMB	2	3	2	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
9Lexi GinDS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	17	86	.326	38	5	7	35	2	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 HOFSTR · PENNST 8

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 5 HOFSTRPENNST 5

Set 2

9-25

Longest run 4 HOFSTRPENNST 8

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 HOFSTRPENNST 6

Bars above the line = Penn St. leads, below = Hofstra leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Hofstra

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	27%6/22	25%2/8
2	43%6/14	57%8/14
3	71%5/7	25%2/8
4	38%5/13	17%1/6
5	50%5/10	29%2/7
6	63%5/8	50%5/10
All	43%32/74	38%20/53

Penn St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	60%9/15
2	75%6/8	73%16/22
3	83%5/6	38%3/8
4	71%5/7	29%2/7
5	71%5/7	69%11/16
6	50%5/10	17%1/6
All	62%33/53	57%42/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	HOFSTR-PENNST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Whitney Lauenstein	+1.0
2	1-1	PENNST	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.9
3	2-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Nil Kayaalp	set Beatriz Braga	+1.2
4	3-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Ryla Jones	blk Julia Amorim, Constanza Perez Sain	+1.4
5	3-2	HOFSTR	PENNST	Attack err	Ellie Pamatat		+1.0
6	3-3	PENNST	PENNST	Ace	PENNST server	aced Maria Afonso	+1.2
7	4-3	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.1
8	4-4	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+1.0
9	5-4	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.1
10	5-5	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+1.0
11	5-6	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Alexis Stucky	+1.2
12	6-6	PENNST	HOFSTR	Attack err	Alexis Stucky	blk Beatriz Braga	+1.1
13	6-7	HOFSTR	PENNST×4	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+1.0
14	6-8	PENNST	PENNST×4	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha		+1.1
15	6-9	PENNST	PENNST×4	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.0
16	6-10	PENNST	PENNST×4	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.8
17	7-10	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.6
18	7-11	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.7
19	8-11	PENNST	HOFSTR	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Beatriz Braga, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.6
20	8-12	HOFSTR	PENNST×5	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.7
21	8-13	PENNST	PENNST×5	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+0.7
22	8-14	PENNST	PENNST×5	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha		+0.5
23	8-15	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Constanza Perez Sain	+0.3
24	8-16	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Ava Falduto	+0.2
25	9-16	PENNST	HOFSTR×5	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.1
26	10-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Ryla Jones		+0.2
27	11-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.4
28	12-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.6
29	13-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.8
30	13-17	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Alexis Stucky	set Haley Burgdorf	+0.8
31	13-18	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+0.7
32	14-18	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.5
33	14-19	HOFSTR	PENNST	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.6
34	15-19	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Dawn Pena	+0.4
35	15-20	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
36	15-21	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak		+0.4
37	16-21	PENNST	HOFSTR×3	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.2
38	17-21	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Finley Krystkowiak	blk Dawn Pena, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.4
39	18-21	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Finley Krystkowiak	blk Dawn Pena, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.8
40	18-22	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.9
41	18-23	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Dawn Pena	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein	+0.6
42	19-23	PENNST	HOFSTR	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.2
43	19-24	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.4
44	20-24	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.1
45	20-25	HOFSTR	PENNST	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	HOFSTR	PENNST×3	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
2	0-2	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
3	0-3	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
4	1-3	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.5
5	1-4	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
6	1-5	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
7	2-5	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.4
8	2-6	HOFSTR	PENNST	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.4
9	3-6	PENNST	HOFSTR	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.4
10	3-7	HOFSTR	PENNST×7	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.4
11	3-8	PENNST	PENNST×7	Ace	PENNST server	aced Maria Afonso	+0.4
12	3-9	PENNST	PENNST×7	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak		+0.3
13	3-10	PENNST	PENNST×7	Attack err	Dawn Pena		+0.2
14	3-11	PENNST	PENNST×7	Ace	PENNST server	aced Nil Kayaalp	+0.2
15	3-12	PENNST	PENNST×7	Ace	PENNST server	aced Nil Kayaalp	+0.1
16	3-13	PENNST	PENNST×7	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
17	4-13	PENNST	HOFSTR	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.0
18	4-14	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
19	5-14	PENNST	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
20	6-14	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Ava Falduto	+0.1
21	7-14	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.1
22	8-14	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Kendall Northern	blk Beatriz Braga, Julia Amorim	+0.2
23	8-15	HOFSTR	PENNST×3	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
24	8-16	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Julia Amorim	blk Whitney Lauenstein	+0.2
25	8-17	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+0.1
26	9-17	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.0
27	9-18	HOFSTR	PENNST×8	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Ava Falduto	+0.1
28	9-19	PENNST	PENNST×8	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols		+0.0
29	9-20	PENNST	PENNST×8	Attack err	Ellie Pamatat		+0.0
30	9-21	PENNST	PENNST×8	Attack err	Beatriz Braga	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein	+0.0
31	9-22	PENNST	PENNST×8	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.0
32	9-23	PENNST	PENNST×8	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.0
33	9-24	PENNST	PENNST×8	Bad set	Ellie Pamatat		+0.0
34	9-25	PENNST	PENNST×8	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Gabrielle Nichols	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	PENNST	HOFSTR	Attack err	Kennedy Martin		+0.3
2	1-1	HOFSTR	PENNST×6	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
3	1-2	PENNST	PENNST×6	Kill	Kennedy Martin		+0.3
4	1-3	PENNST	PENNST×6	Kill	Ryla Jones		+0.3
5	1-4	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Maria Afonso		+0.3
6	1-5	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Maria Afonso	blk Ryla Jones, Kennedy Martin	+0.2
7	1-6	PENNST	PENNST×6	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain	blk Ryla Jones, Finley Krystkowiak	+0.2
8	2-6	PENNST	HOFSTR	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.1
9	2-7	HOFSTR	PENNST×3	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
10	2-8	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Jocelyn Nathan	+0.2
11	2-9	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Lexi Gin	+0.1
12	3-9	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
13	4-9	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Finley Krystkowiak	blk Dawn Pena, Julia Amorim	+0.1
14	4-10	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
15	5-10	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Nil Kayaalp	+0.1
16	5-11	HOFSTR	PENNST	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.1
17	5-12	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
18	6-12	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
19	7-12	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Kendall Northern		+0.1
20	7-13	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
21	8-13	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.1
22	8-14	HOFSTR	PENNST	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.1
23	8-15	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
24	9-15	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.1
25	9-16	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1
26	10-16	PENNST	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.1
27	11-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Finley Krystkowiak	+0.1
28	12-16	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Ryla Jones		+0.2
29	12-17	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
30	13-17	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.2
31	13-18	HOFSTR	PENNST	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+0.2
32	14-18	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
33	14-19	HOFSTR	PENNST	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.2
34	15-19	PENNST	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.1
35	16-19	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.3
36	16-20	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
37	16-21	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
38	17-21	PENNST	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.1
39	18-21	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Constanza Perez Sain, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.2
40	19-21	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Kennedy Martin	blk Maria Afonso, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.4
41	19-22	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.4
42	19-23	PENNST	PENNST	Ace	PENNST server	aced Maria Afonso	+0.3
43	20-23	PENNST	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.1
44	21-23	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.4
45	22-23	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.7
46	22-24	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.9
47	23-24	PENNST	HOFSTR	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.5
48	23-25	HOFSTR	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Hofstra first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.