Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on FloSports

UNCW def. Hofstra 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Hofstra 89.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UNCW beat visiting Hofstra 3-1 (25-14, 25-19, 18-25, 25-14) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. UNCW's Sam Vanda led with 15 kills, and Gaby Zovko added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
HOFSTR141925141
UNCW252518253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UNCW beat Hofstra from a 10% pre-match call.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows UNCW's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Hofstra at 90% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Hofstra 1–0 UNCW

    UNCW's low point. UNCW then won 25 of the next 38 rallies and the set 25–14.

    UNCW 10% → 27%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Hofstra 4–3 UNCW

    Down 3–4, UNCW scored 4 straight to lead 7–4. The match swung to UNCW.

    UNCW 44% → 62%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Hofstra 6–7 UNCW

    Up 7–6, UNCW scored 5 straight to make it 12–6.

    UNCW 54% → 82%

UNCW above 50Hofstra belowMax swing 6.1%

HofstraUNCW

Sideout %
Hofstra 53.3·UNCW 68.5
Break %
Hofstra 31.5·UNCW 46.7
Hitting
Hofstra .171·UNCW .339
Longest run
Hofstra 3·UNCW 5

Elaina Murphy
8 of her kills came in the stretches above. 14 K, .370, 15.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UNCW above 50 · Hofstra below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.1% UNCWrally 165 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.1% to UNCW — set 4, HOFSTR 6-10 UNCW. Attack error by Beatriz Braga. UNCW win probability 64% → 70%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HOFSTR 79.7%20.3% UNCW

Hofstra wins

3-0
31.2%
3-1
30.1%
3-2
18.3%

UNCW wins

3-0
3.3%
3-1
6.8%
3-2
10.2%
HOFSTR break %
46.4% vs this opp
UNCW break %
40.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Beatriz BragaAttack error+6.1%

    Attack error by Beatriz Braga

    Set 4 · HOFSTR 6-10 UNCW · UNCW 64% → 70%

  2. 02
    Lauren LewisKill+6.1%

    Kill by Lauren Lewis

    Set 4 · HOFSTR 6-11 UNCW · UNCW 70% → 76%

  3. 03
    UNCWAce+5.9%

    UNCW ace on Nil Kayaalp

    Set 4 · HOFSTR 6-9 UNCW · UNCW 58% → 64%

  4. 04
    Lauren LewisKill+5.7%

    Kill by Lauren Lewis (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 4 · HOFSTR 6-12 UNCW · UNCW 76% → 82%

  5. 05

    Melis Başaran stuffed by Gaby Zovko & Courtney Graham

    Set 4 · HOFSTR 4-7 UNCW · UNCW 57% → 62%

  6. 06

    Stella Becker stuffed by Courtney Graham & Sam Vanda

    Set 4 · HOFSTR 4-6 UNCW · UNCW 51% → 57%

  7. 07
    Ellie PamatatBad set+5.0%

    Bad set by Ellie Pamatat

    Set 2 · HOFSTR 16-20 UNCW · UNCW 46% → 51%

  8. 08
    Sam VandaKill+4.9%

    Kill by Sam Vanda (set by Gaby Zovko)

    Set 4 · HOFSTR 8-15 UNCW · UNCW 84% → 89%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415635.25701010002117
49532.1250131004212
42010.20003320073.58.5
44041.00000020010.54.5
4128-.125000410001
4000–210030010.50.5
43412-.083000200003
4000–021310002
4103.33300000010.51.5
4001.000000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000130000
4000–000000000
4000–000830000
4000–1100200000
Team totals3517105.17132773811016872
UNCWhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4151034.14733310202119
414427.37021193010.515.5
4519.444423014004210
47119.31601480010.58.5
47010.70000000031.58.5
46110.50001000010.57.5
4205.40001100031.54.5
4000–5121120001
4001.000000000000
4000–100000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5617115.3395311115270157.593

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Hofstra vs UNCW

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 HOFSTR · UNCW 5

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 HOFSTRUNCW 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 HOFSTRUNCW 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 3 HOFSTRUNCW 2

Set 4

14-25

Longest run 2 HOFSTRUNCW 5

Bars above the line = UNCW leads, below = Hofstra leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Hofstra

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
36%5/14
2
50%10/20
29%4/14
3
47%8/17
33%5/15
4
64%7/11
46%6/13
5
58%7/12
13%1/8
6
41%7/17
22%2/9
All
53%49/92
32%23/73

UNCW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
47%7/15
2
67%10/15
44%8/18
3
64%9/14
47%9/19
4
64%7/11
42%5/12
5
88%7/8
42%5/12
6
70%7/10
56%9/16
All
68%50/73
47%43/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

165 rallies

#HOFSTR-UNCWSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+0.8
21-1HOFSTRUNCW×4KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.8
31-2UNCWUNCW×4KillElaina Murphyset Annie Harney+1.3
41-3UNCWUNCW×4KillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+1.4
51-4UNCWUNCW×4AceUNCWaced Nil Kayaalp+1.5
62-4UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+1.0
73-4HOFSTRHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+1.3
83-5HOFSTRUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+1.2
93-6UNCWUNCWKillSam Vandaset Annie Harney+1.6
104-6UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+1.1
114-7HOFSTRUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Elaina Murphy+1.3
125-7UNCWHOFSTRKillDawn Penaset Sonja Rundcrantz+1.1
136-7HOFSTRHOFSTRAttack errSam Vanda+1.5
146-8HOFSTRUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Elaina Murphy+1.3
157-8UNCWHOFSTRKillGeovanna Gonçalves rochaset Sonja Rundcrantz+1.1
167-9HOFSTRUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.3
177-10UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.9
187-11UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Annie Harney+1.9
197-12UNCWUNCW×4KillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+1.9
208-12UNCWHOFSTRAttack errSam Vanda+1.1
218-13HOFSTRUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Sam Vanda+1.5
229-13UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+1.1
239-14HOFSTRUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.5
249-15UNCWUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.8
2510-15UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+0.9
2610-16HOFSTRUNCWBad setGeovanna Gonçalves rocha+1.4
2710-17UNCWUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.4
2811-17UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+0.6
2911-18HOFSTRUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+1.1
3012-18UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+0.6
3112-19HOFSTRUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.0
3212-20UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Nil Kayaalp+0.8
3313-20UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Sonja Rundcrantz+0.3
3413-21HOFSTRUNCW×3KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+0.6
3513-22UNCWUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.4
3613-23UNCWUNCW×3AceUNCWaced Melis Başaran+0.1
3714-23UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Sonja Rundcrantz·
3814-24HOFSTRUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+0.1
3914-25UNCWUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Annie Harney·
Set 2
10-1HOFSTRUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+1.9
21-1UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+1.7
31-2HOFSTRUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.9
41-3UNCWUNCWBlockedConstanza Perez sainblk Gaby Zovko, Elaina Murphy, Lily Goyer+2.8
52-3UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+1.9
63-3HOFSTRHOFSTRBlockedElaina Murphyblk Julia Amorim, Constanza Perez sain+2.4
73-4HOFSTRUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.0
84-4UNCWHOFSTRBlockedSam Vandablk Constanza Perez sain, Julia Amorim+1.8
94-5HOFSTRUNCWServe errHofstra+2.1
105-5UNCWHOFSTRAttack errSam Vanda+1.9
115-6HOFSTRUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.2
125-7UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Brooke Wilson+3.2
136-7UNCWHOFSTRBlockedSam Vandablk Julia Amorim, Dawn Pena+2.1
146-8HOFSTRUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+2.5
156-9UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Brooke Wilson+3.6
167-9UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Sonja Rundcrantz+2.3
178-9HOFSTRHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+3.1
188-10HOFSTRUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.7
199-10UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+2.3
209-11HOFSTRUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+2.9
219-12UNCWUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+4.0
2210-12UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+2.5
2310-13HOFSTRUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+3.2
2411-13UNCWHOFSTR×3KillJulia Amorimset Ellie Pamatat+2.6
2512-13HOFSTRHOFSTR×3BlockedSam Vandablk Julia Amorim, Ellie Pamatat+3.6
2613-13HOFSTRHOFSTR×3AceHofstraaced Elaina Murphy+3.6
2713-14HOFSTRUNCWServe errHofstra+3.1
2814-14UNCWHOFSTRBad setGaby Zovko+2.7
2914-15HOFSTRUNCW×4KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+3.2
3014-16UNCWUNCW×4BlockedConstanza Perez sainblk Lauren Lewis, Sam Vanda+4.7
3114-17UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+4.9
3214-18UNCWUNCW×4AceUNCWaced Brooke Wilson+4.7
3315-18UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+2.5
3416-18HOFSTRHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+4.1
3516-19HOFSTRUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Sam Vanda+4.2
3616-20UNCWUNCWBad setEllie Pamatat+5.0
3717-20UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+2.4
3817-21HOFSTRUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+3.9
3917-22UNCWUNCWAttack errBeatriz Braga+3.8
4018-22UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+1.3
4118-23HOFSTRUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+2.6
4219-23UNCWHOFSTRKillStella Beckerset Ellie Pamatat+1.0
4319-24HOFSTRUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Sam Vanda+2.1
4419-25UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Lauren Konzen+0.8
Set 3
11-0UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+1.8
22-0HOFSTRHOFSTRAceHofstraaced Elaina Murphy+2.3
32-1HOFSTRUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Gaby Zovko+1.8
43-1UNCWHOFSTRKillGeovanna Gonçalves rochaset Ellie Pamatat+1.7
54-1HOFSTRHOFSTRAttack errSam Vanda+2.0
64-2HOFSTRUNCWAttack errStella Becker+1.5
74-3UNCWUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.5
85-3UNCWHOFSTRKillStella Beckerset Sonja Rundcrantz+1.8
96-3HOFSTRHOFSTRAttack errLily Goyer+2.1
106-4HOFSTRUNCWServe errHofstra+1.6
117-4UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Sonja Rundcrantz+1.6
127-5HOFSTRUNCWAttack errBeatriz Braga+1.7
138-5UNCWHOFSTRBlockedGaby Zovkoblk Beatriz Braga, Julia Amorim+1.7
148-6HOFSTRUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.7
159-6UNCWHOFSTR×3Attack errSam Vanda+1.7
1610-6HOFSTRHOFSTR×3AceHofstraaced Annie Harney+1.9
1711-6HOFSTRHOFSTR×3KillJulia Amorimset Gaby Zovko+1.5
1811-7HOFSTRUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+1.0
1912-7UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+1.1
2013-7HOFSTRHOFSTRAceHofstraaced Annie Harney+1.1
2113-8HOFSTRUNCWServe errHofstra+0.7
2214-8UNCWHOFSTRKillStella Beckerset Ellie Pamatat+0.8
2315-8HOFSTRHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+0.8
2415-9HOFSTRUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.4
2515-10UNCWUNCWAceUNCW+0.9
2616-10UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+0.8
2717-10HOFSTRHOFSTRAceHofstraaced Sam Vanda+0.7
2817-11HOFSTRUNCWKillLily Goyerset Gaby Zovko+0.4
2918-11UNCWHOFSTRKillMelis Başaranset Sonja Rundcrantz+0.5
3018-12HOFSTRUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+0.3
3119-12UNCWHOFSTRAttack errSam Vanda+0.5
3220-12HOFSTRHOFSTRBlockedSam Vandablk Constanza Perez sain, Julia Amorim+0.3
3320-13HOFSTRUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+0.1
3421-13UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+0.2
3521-14HOFSTRUNCWAttack errBeatriz Braga+0.1
3621-15UNCWUNCWAceUNCW+0.3
3722-15UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Ellie Pamatat+0.3
3822-16HOFSTRUNCWServe errHofstra+0.1
3922-17UNCWUNCWKillNadia Wasilewskiset Annie Harney+0.4
4023-17UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+0.5
4123-18HOFSTRUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+0.2
4224-18UNCWHOFSTRKillGeovanna Gonçalves rochaset Sonja Rundcrantz+0.3
4325-18HOFSTRHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Sonja Rundcrantz+0.1
Set 4
11-0HOFSTRHOFSTRAttack errElaina Murphy+3.4
21-1HOFSTRUNCWKillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+2.7
32-1UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+2.5
43-1HOFSTRHOFSTRAceHofstraaced Sam Vanda+3.1
53-2HOFSTRUNCWServe errHofstra+2.4
63-3UNCWUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Ellie Pamatat+3.8
74-3UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+2.7
84-4HOFSTRUNCW×4Serve errHofstra+3.0
94-5UNCWUNCW×4KillGaby Zovkoset Addi Vaughn+4.5
104-6UNCWUNCW×4BlockedStella Beckerblk Courtney Graham, Sam Vanda+5.1
114-7UNCWUNCW×4BlockedMelis Başaranblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+5.5
125-7UNCWHOFSTRKillBeatriz Bragaset Sonja Rundcrantz+3.6
136-7HOFSTRHOFSTRAceHofstraaced Elaina Murphy+4.8
146-8HOFSTRUNCW×5Attack errMelis Başaran+4.2
156-9UNCWUNCW×5AceUNCWaced Nil Kayaalp+5.9
166-10UNCWUNCW×5Attack errBeatriz Braga+6.1
176-11UNCWUNCW×5KillLauren Lewis+6.1
186-12UNCWUNCW×5KillLauren Lewisset Gaby Zovko+5.7
197-12UNCWHOFSTRServe errUNCW+3.1
207-13HOFSTRUNCWBlockedBeatriz Bragablk Gaby Zovko, Lauren Lewis+4.4
218-13UNCWHOFSTRAttack errNadia Wasilewski+3.1
228-14HOFSTRUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+4.4
238-15UNCWUNCW×4KillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+4.9
248-16UNCWUNCW×4BlockedConstanza Perez sainblk Nadia Wasilewski, Lauren Lewis+3.9
258-17UNCWUNCW×4AceUNCW+2.8
269-17UNCWHOFSTRBlockedElaina Murphyblk Julia Amorim, Beatriz Braga+1.2
2710-17HOFSTRHOFSTRBad setNadia Wasilewski+2.2
2810-18HOFSTRUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.7
2910-19UNCWUNCW×3Attack errStella Becker+2.3
3010-20UNCWUNCW×3Attack errConstanza Perez sain+1.3
3111-20UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat+0.4
3212-20HOFSTRHOFSTRBlockedElaina Murphyblk Geovanna Gonçalves rocha, Constanza Perez sain+0.9
3312-21HOFSTRUNCW×3KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.2
3412-22UNCWUNCW×3BlockedStella Beckerblk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham+0.7
3512-23UNCWUNCW×3Attack errBeatriz Braga+0.3
3613-23UNCWHOFSTRKillConstanza Perez sainset Ellie Pamatat·
3714-23HOFSTRHOFSTRKillGeovanna Gonçalves rocha+0.1
3814-24HOFSTRUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+0.2
3914-25UNCWUNCWAttack errConstanza Perez sain·

Score shown after each rally, Hofstra first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).