FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMOUNTAIN-WEST

0:3

HomeACC

Boston College def. Air Force 3–0

(25-18, 25-22, 25-13)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
AIRFOR	18	22	13	0
BC	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BC above 50 · AIRFOR below

Biggest swing: 4.5% to Boston College — set 2, AIRFOR 21-22 BC. Kill by Sam Hoppes (set by Brooklyn Yelland). BC win probability 83% → 87%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

AIRFOR 26.6%73.4% BC

Air Force wins

3-0

4.8%

3-1

9.2%

3-2

12.6%

Boston College wins

3-0

25.7%

3-1

28.1%

3-2

19.5%

AIRFOR break %: 39.4% vs this opp
BC break %: 44.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sam HoppesKill+4.5%
Kill by Sam Hoppes (set by Brooklyn Yelland)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 21-22 BC · BC 83% → 87%
02
Audrey RossKill+4.0%
Kill by Audrey Ross (set by Lucy Mott)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 21-23 BC · BC 87% → 91%
03
Sofija MarjanovicKill+3.2%
Kill by Sofija Marjanovic (set by Ava McBride)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 18-18 BC · BC 80% → 83%
04
Grace FiaseuKill+3.1%
Kill by Grace Fiaseu (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 21-20 BC · AIRFOR 17% → 20%
05
Grace FiaseuKill+2.9%
Kill by Grace Fiaseu (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 18-15 BC · AIRFOR 21% → 24%
06
Alysa WalkerAttack error+2.9%
Alysa Walker stuffed by Naomi Watson & Laney Blevins
Set 2 · AIRFOR 21-21 BC · BC 80% → 83%
07
Reese DunkleKill+2.8%
Kill by Reese Dunkle (set by Ava McBride)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 18-17 BC · BC 77% → 80%
08
Kennedy SimonKill+2.8%
Kill by Kennedy Simon (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 20-19 BC · AIRFOR 17% → 20%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Air Forceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
44Grace FiaseuMB	3	7	1	11	.545	0	1	3	2	0	3	3	11
3Alysa WalkerOH	3	5	10	34	-.147	1	1	0	6	0	1	1	7
5Sonia OkparaMB	3	5	3	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
13Jenness OrcuttOH	3	3	2	18	.056	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
11Mia LoydS	3	0	0	7	.000	23	2	1	6	0	0	0	2
14Annamaria RamosOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	1	0	11	0	0	0	1
55Kennedy SimonOH	3	7	3	21	.190	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	7
1Aylani CorreaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	1
40Ella VogelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0
8Lainie StapletonOH	1	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Neely LeathersS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	19	107	.075	26	6	8	40	4	4	4	53

Boston Collegehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Audrey RossOH	3	24	3	45	.467	0	0	0	8	0	1	2	2	26
19Sofija MarjanovicOH	3	6	2	14	.286	0	2	1	5	4	1	1	1.5	9.5
21Naomi WatsonMB	3	2	3	7	-.143	0	0	0	1	0	3	7	6.5	8.5
11Laney BlevinsMB	3	6	3	14	.214	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
5Reese DunkleMB	3	3	2	7	.143	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
9Ava McBrideS	3	0	0	0	–	16	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Sam HoppesOPP	3	2	2	17	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
15Lucy MottS	3	0	0	2	.000	17	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
16Brooklyn YellandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	12	1	0	0	0	1
22Savannah CurtisL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
3Ali NattL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	15	106	.264	41	4	3	50	6	5	16	13	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 AIRFOR · BC 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 AIRFORBC 4

Set 2*

22-25

Longest run 4 AIRFORBC 4

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 3 AIRFORBC 5

Bars above the line = Boston College leads, below = Air Force leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Air Force

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	31%4/13	40%2/5
2	44%4/9	20%1/5
3	50%4/8	20%1/5
4	33%4/12	33%2/6
5	60%3/5	20%1/5
6	100%3/3	40%2/5
All	44%22/50	29%9/31

Boston College

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%4/5	69%9/13
2	80%4/5	56%5/9
3	67%4/6	50%4/8
4	80%4/5	67%8/12
5	60%3/5	40%2/5
6	60%3/5	0%0/3
All	71%22/31	56%28/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	AIRFOR-BC	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+1.6
2	1-1	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.5
3	1-2	BC	BC	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Laney Blevins, Audrey Ross	+2.0
4	2-2	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Mia Loyd	+1.5
5	2-3	AIRFOR	BC×4	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.5
6	2-4	BC	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+2.0
7	2-5	BC	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+1.8
8	2-6	BC	BC×4	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Audrey Ross, Naomi Watson	+1.6
9	3-6	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Annamaria Ramos	+1.0
10	3-7	AIRFOR	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Savannah Curtis	+1.1
11	3-8	BC	BC×4	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Naomi Watson	+1.3
12	3-9	BC	BC×4	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Naomi Watson, Sam Hoppes	+1.1
13	3-10	BC	BC×4	Attack err	Sonia Okpara	blk Sofija Marjanovic	+0.8
14	4-10	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+0.5
15	5-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Team	+0.9
16	5-11	AIRFOR	BC	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Naomi Watson, Sam Hoppes	+0.8
17	6-11	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
18	6-12	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+0.8
19	7-12	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
20	8-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Reese Dunkle		+1.2
21	8-13	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Laney Blevins	set Ava McBride	+1.0
22	8-14	BC	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Brooklyn Yelland	+1.1
23	9-14	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Audrey Ross		+0.6
24	10-14	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Laney Blevins		+1.1
25	10-15	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.0
26	11-15	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+0.8
27	11-16	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.0
28	12-16	BC	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.8
29	13-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+1.6
30	14-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Mia Loyd	+2.1
31	14-17	AIRFOR	BC×3	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+1.8
32	14-18	BC	BC×3	Attack err	Sonia Okpara	blk Sofija Marjanovic, Naomi Watson	+2.0
33	14-19	BC	BC×3	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+1.4
34	15-19	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Naomi Watson		+0.7
35	15-20	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Sofija Marjanovic	set Lucy Mott	+1.0
36	16-20	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
37	16-21	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.9
38	17-21	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
39	18-21	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Laney Blevins	blk Grace Fiaseu	+1.3
40	18-22	AIRFOR	BC×4	Kill	Sofija Marjanovic	set Ava McBride	+1.4
41	18-23	BC	BC×4	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu	blk Audrey Ross	+1.1
42	18-24	BC	BC×4	Kill	Laney Blevins	set Ava McBride	+0.4
43	18-25	BC	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Ava McBride	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.1
2	0-2	BC	BC	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.5
3	1-2	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Laney Blevins		+1.1
4	1-3	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Ava McBride	+1.1
5	1-4	BC	BC	Ace	BC server	aced Team	+1.4
6	2-4	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
7	2-5	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.0
8	2-6	BC	BC	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+1.3
9	3-6	BC	AIRFOR	Ace	BC server	aced Sofija Marjanovic	+0.8
10	4-6	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+1.4
11	4-7	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Sofija Marjanovic	set Brooklyn Yelland	+1.1
12	4-8	BC	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Sam Hoppes	+1.3
13	5-8	BC	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Alysa Walker	+0.9
14	6-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Sofija Marjanovic	+1.4
15	7-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.7
16	7-9	AIRFOR	BC	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Kennedy Simon	+1.3
17	7-10	BC	BC	Ace	BC server	aced Kennedy Simon	+1.6
18	8-10	BC	AIRFOR×4	Bad set	Ava McBride		+1.1
19	9-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Sofija Marjanovic	+1.8
20	10-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Audrey Ross		+2.1
21	11-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Audrey Ross		+2.3
22	11-11	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Ava McBride	+1.6
23	11-12	BC	BC	Kill	Laney Blevins		+2.2
24	12-12	BC	AIRFOR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.6
25	13-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.5
26	13-13	AIRFOR	BC	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+1.7
27	14-13	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Mia Loyd	+1.9
28	15-13	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+2.8
29	15-14	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.8
30	16-14	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+2.1
31	16-15	AIRFOR	BC	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Naomi Watson, Sam Hoppes	+1.8
32	17-15	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Sam Hoppes		+2.2
33	18-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+2.9
34	18-16	AIRFOR	BC×3	Kill	Sam Hoppes	set Lucy Mott	+1.7
35	18-17	BC	BC×3	Kill	Reese Dunkle	set Ava McBride	+2.8
36	18-18	BC	BC×3	Kill	Sofija Marjanovic	set Ava McBride	+3.2
37	19-18	BC	AIRFOR	Serve err	BC server		+2.6
38	19-19	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Laney Blevins	set Ava McBride	+2.4
39	20-19	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+2.8
40	20-20	AIRFOR	BC	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+2.6
41	21-20	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+3.1
42	21-21	AIRFOR	BC×4	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Naomi Watson, Laney Blevins	+2.9
43	21-22	BC	BC×4	Kill	Sam Hoppes	set Brooklyn Yelland	+4.5
44	21-23	BC	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+4.0
45	21-24	BC	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+2.6
46	22-24	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Mia Loyd	+0.7
47	22-25	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+1.7
Set 3
1	0-1	BC	BC	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+0.9
2	1-1	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
3	1-2	AIRFOR	BC×3	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Brooklyn Yelland	+0.6
4	1-3	BC	BC×3	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Laney Blevins, Naomi Watson	+0.8
5	1-4	BC	BC×3	Kill	Laney Blevins	set Ava McBride	+0.7
6	2-4	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.5
7	2-5	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Savannah Curtis	+0.5
8	2-6	BC	BC	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt	blk Naomi Watson	+0.7
9	3-6	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Sam Hoppes	blk Alysa Walker	+0.4
10	3-7	AIRFOR	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+0.5
11	3-8	BC	BC×4	Kill	Sofija Marjanovic	set Lucy Mott	+0.6
12	3-9	BC	BC×4	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt	blk Naomi Watson	+0.5
13	3-10	BC	BC×4	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+0.4
14	4-10	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Sofija Marjanovic		+0.2
15	4-11	AIRFOR	BC	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.2
16	4-12	BC	BC	Kill	Reese Dunkle	set Lucy Mott	+0.2
17	5-12	BC	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
18	6-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Reese Dunkle		+0.3
19	7-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Sofija Marjanovic		+0.4
20	7-13	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Reese Dunkle	set Lucy Mott	+0.3
21	8-13	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Neely Leathers	+0.3
22	8-14	AIRFOR	BC×5	Kill	Laney Blevins	set Ava McBride	+0.3
23	8-15	BC	BC×5	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Ava McBride	+0.3
24	8-16	BC	BC×5	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+0.2
25	8-17	BC	BC×5	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+0.1
26	8-18	BC	BC×5	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Brooklyn Yelland	+0.1
27	9-18	BC	AIRFOR	Serve err	BC server		+0.0
28	9-19	AIRFOR	BC×3	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Reese Dunkle	+0.0
29	9-20	BC	BC×3	Kill	Naomi Watson	set Ava McBride	+0.0
30	9-21	BC	BC×3	Kill	Naomi Watson	set Ava McBride	+0.0
31	10-21	BC	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Neely Leathers	+0.0
32	11-21	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Naomi Watson	blk Grace Fiaseu	+0.0
33	11-22	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Ava McBride	+0.0
34	12-22	BC	AIRFOR	Attack err	Naomi Watson	blk Grace Fiaseu	+0.0
35	12-23	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Audrey Ross	set Lucy Mott	+0.0
36	13-23	BC	AIRFOR	Serve err	BC server		+0.0
37	13-24	AIRFOR	BC	Kill	Sofija Marjanovic	set Lucy Mott	+0.0
38	13-25	BC	BC	Ace	BC server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Air Force first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.