FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Air Force def. Quinnipiac 3–0

(26-24, 25-18, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
QUINN	24	18	16	0
AIRFOR	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AIRFOR above 50 · QUINN below

Biggest swing: 4.9% to Air Force — set 1, QUINN 24-25 AIRFOR. Kill by Alysa Walker (set by Mia Loyd). AIRFOR win probability 87% → 91%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

QUINN 9.2%90.8% AIRFOR

Quinnipiac wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.8%

3-2

5.2%

Air Force wins

3-0

45.8%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.5%

QUINN break %: 36.8% vs this opp
AIRFOR break %: 46.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alysa WalkerKill+4.9%
Kill by Alysa Walker (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 1 · QUINN 24-25 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 87% → 91%
02
Vittoria TonelliKill+4.3%
Kill by Vittoria Tonelli (set by Sophia Gisslen)
Set 1 · QUINN 24-23 AIRFOR · QUINN 13% → 18%
03
Kennedy SimonKill+4.3%
Kill by Kennedy Simon (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 1 · QUINN 24-24 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 82% → 87%
04
Alysa WalkerKill+3.8%
Kill by Alysa Walker (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 1 · QUINN 24-26 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 91% → 95%
05
Sahra OzbiltekinKill+3.4%
Kill by Sahra Ozbiltekin (set by Sophia Gisslen)
Set 1 · QUINN 23-22 AIRFOR · QUINN 13% → 16%
06
QUINN serverService error+3.0%
Quinnipiac service error
Set 1 · QUINN 23-23 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 84% → 87%
07
Sahra OzbiltekinKill+2.8%
Kill by Sahra Ozbiltekin (set by Sophia Gisslen)
Set 1 · QUINN 22-21 AIRFOR · QUINN 13% → 16%
08
Sophia GisslenBad set+2.8%
Bad set by Sophia Gisslen
Set 1 · QUINN 20-20 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 85% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Quinnipiacaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Sahra OzbiltekinOH	3	12	4	28	.286	0	0	3	7	1	1	0	1	13
11Asia BelliMB	3	4	2	7	.286	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Sila YildizMB	3	1	0	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
19Azra OzbiltekinOPP	2	6	5	18	.056	0	0	2	5	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
10Vittoria TonelliOH	2	6	5	24	.042	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	6
6Sophia GisslenS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	24	1	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Carola Negron DiazL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	16	0	0	0	0	0
13Didar BulbulL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Giulia RagusaOH	2	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
4Farah SherifOPP	1	3	3	11	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
14Klara Jadwiga OlszewskaS	1	0	0	2	.000	10	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
8Sophia MinlendOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	23	112	.125	36	1	10	50	3	2	8	6	58

Air Forcehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Alysa WalkerOH	3	19	3	43	.372	0	2	1	10	0	1	1	1.5	22.5
44Grace FiaseuMB	3	7	3	14	.286	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
5Sonia OkparaMB	3	2	3	8	-.125	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	3
11Mia LoydS	3	1	0	6	.167	32	0	0	6	0	0	2	1	2
14Annamaria RamosOH	3	0	0	9	.000	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
40Ella VogelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
13Jenness OrcuttOH	3	5	1	10	.400	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	6
55Kennedy SimonOH	3	3	2	21	.048	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
1Aylani CorreaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	3	13	0	0	0	0	0
20Sophie BridgesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	12	111	.225	34	3	7	46	1	2	12	8	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 QUINN · AIRFOR 4

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 5 QUINNAIRFOR 4

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 2 QUINNAIRFOR 3

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 QUINNAIRFOR 4

Bars above the line = Air Force leads, below = Quinnipiac leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Quinnipiac

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	0%0/6
2	47%8/17	50%8/16
3	64%7/11	33%4/12
4	50%7/14	22%2/9
5	64%7/11	0%0/7
6	45%5/11	22%2/9
All	56%42/75	27%16/59

Air Force

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	46%6/13
2	47%8/17	33%4/12
3	100%7/7	56%9/16
4	78%7/9	50%7/14
5	78%7/9	36%4/11
6	100%6/6	33%3/9
All	73%43/59	44%33/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	QUINN-AIRFOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+0.7
2	1-1	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Vittoria Tonelli	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.7
3	2-1	QUINN	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+1.2
4	2-2	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.8
5	3-2	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Azra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.9
6	3-3	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+0.8
7	4-3	AIRFOR	QUINN×3	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.9
8	5-3	QUINN	QUINN×3	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt		+1.4
9	6-3	QUINN	QUINN×3	Kill	Asia Belli	set Sophia Gisslen	+1.6
10	6-4	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
11	7-4	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Carola Negron Diaz	+1.2
12	7-5	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
13	8-5	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Vittoria Tonelli	set Sophia Gisslen	+1.2
14	8-6	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+1.0
15	8-7	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Bad set	Sophia Gisslen		+1.5
16	9-7	AIRFOR	QUINN	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.2
17	9-8	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
18	10-8	AIRFOR	QUINN×5	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.3
19	11-8	QUINN	QUINN×5	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+1.9
20	12-8	QUINN	QUINN×5	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Sila Yildiz, Azra Ozbiltekin	+1.9
21	13-8	QUINN	QUINN×5	Ace	QUINN server	aced Team	+1.9
22	14-8	QUINN	QUINN×5	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+1.7
23	14-9	QUINN	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.8
24	14-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Azra Ozbiltekin		+1.4
25	14-11	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Vittoria Tonelli		+1.6
26	14-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Vittoria Tonelli	blk Alysa Walker	+1.8
27	15-12	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Azra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+1.6
28	15-13	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.3
29	16-13	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Azra Ozbiltekin	set Alysa Walker	+1.7
30	16-14	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.3
31	17-14	AIRFOR	QUINN	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Azra Ozbiltekin	+1.8
32	17-15	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.3
33	18-15	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Asia Belli	set Sophia Gisslen	+1.9
34	18-16	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+1.4
35	19-16	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Vittoria Tonelli	set Sophia Gisslen	+2.0
36	19-17	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.4
37	20-17	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Vittoria Tonelli	set Sophia Gisslen	+2.1
38	20-18	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.5
39	20-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Aylani Correa	+2.5
40	20-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Bad set	Sophia Gisslen		+2.8
41	21-20	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Azra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+2.5
42	21-21	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+2.2
43	22-21	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+2.8
44	22-22	QUINN	AIRFOR	Attack err	Azra Ozbiltekin		+2.5
45	23-22	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+3.4
46	23-23	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+3.0
47	24-23	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Vittoria Tonelli	set Sophia Gisslen	+4.3
48	24-24	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+4.3
49	24-25	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+4.9
50	24-26	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+3.8
Set 2
1	0-1	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Aylani Correa	+0.6
2	1-1	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Azra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.5
3	2-1	QUINN	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.8
4	2-2	QUINN	AIRFOR	Attack err	Vittoria Tonelli		+0.5
5	3-2	AIRFOR	QUINN	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.6
6	4-2	QUINN	QUINN	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+0.9
7	4-3	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.6
8	4-4	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Azra Ozbiltekin	blk Alysa Walker, Grace Fiaseu	+0.8
9	5-4	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.6
10	5-5	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Sahra Ozbiltekin		+0.6
11	5-6	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Vittoria Tonelli		+0.8
12	5-7	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Asia Belli	blk Jenness Orcutt, Grace Fiaseu	+0.7
13	6-7	AIRFOR	QUINN	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.5
14	6-8	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.5
15	6-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Vittoria Tonelli		+0.6
16	7-9	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Vittoria Tonelli	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.4
17	7-10	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
18	8-10	AIRFOR	QUINN	Attack err	Sonia Okpara	blk Azra Ozbiltekin, Sila Yildiz	+0.4
19	8-11	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+0.4
20	9-11	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Azra Ozbiltekin	set Carola Negron Diaz	+0.4
21	9-12	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+0.5
22	10-12	AIRFOR	QUINN	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.5
23	10-13	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.5
24	11-13	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.5
25	11-14	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Serve err	QUINN server		+0.5
26	11-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Sahra Ozbiltekin	blk Jenness Orcutt, Grace Fiaseu	+0.6
27	11-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
28	12-16	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Asia Belli	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.2
29	12-17	QUINN	AIRFOR	Attack err	Sophia Gisslen	blk Kennedy Simon	+0.3
30	13-17	AIRFOR	QUINN	Attack err	Sonia Okpara		+0.2
31	14-17	QUINN	QUINN	Kill	Giulia Ragusa	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.5
32	14-18	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
33	14-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Sahra Ozbiltekin		+0.4
34	14-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Azra Ozbiltekin		+0.2
35	15-20	AIRFOR	QUINN	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Sila Yildiz, Sophia Gisslen	+0.1
36	15-21	QUINN	AIRFOR	Attack err	Giulia Ragusa	blk Sonia Okpara, Mia Loyd	+0.1
37	16-21	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Giulia Ragusa	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.1
38	16-22	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
39	17-22	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Sophia Gisslen	+0.1
40	18-22	QUINN	QUINN	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Asia Belli, Azra Ozbiltekin	+0.2
41	18-23	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.2
42	18-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Azra Ozbiltekin		+0.1
43	18-25	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Sahra Ozbiltekin		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	AIRFOR	QUINN	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.3
2	2-0	QUINN	QUINN	Kill	Farah Sherif	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.4
3	2-1	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
4	2-2	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Farah Sherif		+0.4
5	3-2	AIRFOR	QUINN×3	Kill	Sila Yildiz	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.3
6	4-2	QUINN	QUINN×3	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu	blk Sahra Ozbiltekin	+0.4
7	5-2	QUINN	QUINN×3	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.5
8	5-3	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
9	6-3	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Sahra Ozbiltekin	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.4
10	6-4	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
11	6-5	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Team	+0.4
12	7-5	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Farah Sherif	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.4
13	7-6	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
14	7-7	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Sahra Ozbiltekin	+0.4
15	8-7	AIRFOR	QUINN	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.4
16	9-7	QUINN	QUINN	Kill	Giulia Ragusa	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.5
17	9-8	QUINN	AIRFOR	Serve err	QUINN server		+0.3
18	9-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Giulia Ragusa		+0.5
19	10-9	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Giulia Ragusa	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.4
20	10-10	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
21	10-11	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.5
22	10-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.4
23	11-12	AIRFOR	QUINN	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+0.3
24	12-12	QUINN	QUINN	Kill	Farah Sherif	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.5
25	12-13	QUINN	AIRFOR×4	Serve err	QUINN server		+0.3
26	12-14	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Farah Sherif	blk Mia Loyd, Annamaria Ramos	+0.4
27	12-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.4
28	12-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Aylani Correa	+0.3
29	13-16	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Giulia Ragusa	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.2
30	13-17	QUINN	AIRFOR	Kill	Mia Loyd		+0.2
31	13-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Farah Sherif		+0.2
32	14-18	AIRFOR	QUINN	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+0.1
33	14-19	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
34	14-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
35	14-21	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Sophia Minlend	+0.1
36	15-21	AIRFOR	QUINN	Kill	Asia Belli	set Klara Jadwiga Olszewska	+0.0
37	15-22	QUINN	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.0
38	15-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Sophia Minlend		+0.0
39	15-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Mia Loyd	+0.0
40	16-24	AIRFOR	QUINN	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.0
41	16-25	QUINN	AIRFOR	Attack err	Asia Belli	blk Kennedy Simon, Sonia Okpara	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Quinnipiac first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.