FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Air Force def. Little Rock 3–0

(26-24, 25-19, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UALR	24	19	22	0
AIRFOR	26	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AIRFOR above 50 · UALR below

Biggest swing: 10.0% to Air Force — set 1, UALR 24-24 AIRFOR. Air Force ace on Avery Fearnley. AIRFOR win probability 49% → 59%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UALR 39.2%60.8% AIRFOR

Little Rock wins

3-0

8.5%

3-1

14.3%

3-2

16.5%

Air Force wins

3-0

17.6%

3-1

23.2%

3-2

19.9%

UALR break %: 42.0% vs this opp
AIRFOR break %: 44.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
AIRFOR serverAce+10.0%
Air Force ace on Avery Fearnley
Set 1 · UALR 24-24 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 49% → 59%
02
Alysa WalkerKill+9.5%
Kill by Alysa Walker (set by Samantha Pope)
Set 1 · UALR 24-25 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 59% → 68%
03
Jenness OrcuttKill+9.1%
Kill by Jenness Orcutt (set by Alysa Walker)
Set 1 · UALR 24-26 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 68% → 77%
04
Jenness OrcuttAttack error+7.7%
Attack error by Jenness Orcutt
Set 1 · UALR 24-22 AIRFOR · UALR 47% → 55%
05
Morgan CreerKill+5.9%
Kill by Morgan Creer (set by Lily King)
Set 1 · UALR 23-22 AIRFOR · UALR 41% → 47%
06
Lorena KeseljAttack error+5.1%
Attack error by Lorena Keselj
Set 1 · UALR 20-20 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 54% → 59%
07
Morgan CreerKill+5.0%
Kill by Morgan Creer (set by Lily King)
Set 1 · UALR 22-21 AIRFOR · UALR 41% → 46%
08
Annamaria RamosKill+4.7%
Kill by Annamaria Ramos (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 1 · UALR 22-22 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 54% → 59%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Little Rockaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
14Avery FearnleyOH	3	14	5	30	.300	1	1	0	15	2	1	1	16
7Lovina TeelOH	3	7	4	25	.120	1	0	2	11	1	0	0	7
13Morgan CreerOH	3	7	3	16	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
12Alyssa BoyteMB	3	4	3	16	.063	1	0	0	1	0	2	2	6
17Lorena KeseljMB	3	1	1	6	.000	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	2
5Lily KingS	3	0	0	1	.000	22	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
8Bella CherryOH	3	7	3	23	.174	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	7
2Skyler PerezL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	13	0	0	0	0
4Alayna VaethS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
6Victoria FontenotL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
10Polianna HernandezOH	1	5	0	7	.714	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6
11Kaylee SmithS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	19	125	.208	42	1	3	53	4	5	5	65

Air Forcehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Alysa WalkerOH	3	12	3	30	.300	1	1	1	8	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
14Annamaria RamosOH	3	12	2	42	.238	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	13
44Grace FiaseuMB	3	11	3	17	.471	1	1	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
30Zoe KirbyMB	3	4	0	8	.500	0	0	0	2	0	3	1	3.5	7.5
8Lainie StapletonOH	3	7	2	15	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7
11Mia LoydS	3	0	0	1	.000	20	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
13Jenness OrcuttOH	3	2	3	11	-.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
23Samantha PopeS	3	0	0	0	–	19	1	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
40Ella VogelL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	4	0	0	12	1	0	0	0	0
1Aylani CorreaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Bella ChristensenOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	13	126	.278	46	4	6	50	1	3	4	5	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UALR · AIRFOR 7

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 UALRAIRFOR 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 2 UALRAIRFOR 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 UALRAIRFOR 7

Bars above the line = Air Force leads, below = Little Rock leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Little Rock

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%9/18	13%1/8
2	60%9/15	25%3/12
3	58%7/12	44%7/16
4	50%6/12	36%4/11
5	75%6/8	40%4/10
6	60%6/10	33%3/9
All	57%43/75	33%22/66

Air Force

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	60%12/20
2	56%9/16	25%3/12
3	67%8/12	38%5/13
4	55%6/11	57%8/14
5	75%6/8	33%3/9
6	86%6/7	14%1/7
All	67%44/66	43%32/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	UALR-AIRFOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	AIRFOR	UALR×3	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.8
2	2-0	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.5
3	3-0	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Annamaria Ramos		+2.5
4	3-1	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+1.7
5	3-2	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+2.4
6	4-2	AIRFOR	UALR×4	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+2.0
7	5-2	UALR	UALR×4	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Avery Fearnley	+2.6
8	6-2	UALR	UALR×4	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+2.4
9	7-2	UALR	UALR×4	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.3
10	7-3	UALR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+1.5
11	8-3	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Skyler Perez	+1.7
12	8-4	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Samantha Pope	+1.5
13	9-4	AIRFOR	UALR	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.8
14	10-4	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Alysa Walker		+2.0
15	10-5	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.2
16	10-6	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Zoe Kirby	+2.0
17	11-6	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.8
18	11-7	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Jenness Orcutt	+1.5
19	11-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Bad set	Alayna Vaeth		+2.3
20	12-8	AIRFOR	UALR	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+2.1
21	12-9	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+1.8
22	13-9	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.1
23	13-10	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+1.8
24	14-10	AIRFOR	UALR	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+2.2
25	14-11	UALR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+1.8
26	14-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Bad set	Morgan Creer		+2.8
27	14-13	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Avery Fearnley	+3.2
28	15-13	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+2.8
29	16-13	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt	blk Alyssa Boyte	+3.5
30	16-14	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Ella Vogel	+2.2
31	16-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte		+3.5
32	17-15	AIRFOR	UALR	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+3.0
33	18-15	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+3.7
34	18-16	UALR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+2.3
35	18-17	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Team	+3.8
36	19-17	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+3.4
37	19-18	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+3.0
38	20-18	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+3.7
39	20-19	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+3.1
40	20-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Lorena Keselj		+5.1
41	21-20	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+4.4
42	21-21	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+4.2
43	22-21	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+5.0
44	22-22	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+4.7
45	23-22	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+5.9
46	24-22	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt		+7.7
47	24-23	UALR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Samantha Pope	+3.3
48	24-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Avery Fearnley	+10.0
49	24-25	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+9.5
50	24-26	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Alysa Walker	+9.1
Set 2
1	0-1	UALR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.6
2	1-1	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.6
3	1-2	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.6
4	2-2	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Morgan Creer	set Lily King	+1.6
5	3-2	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+2.3
6	3-3	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.7
7	4-3	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+1.8
8	4-4	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.7
9	4-5	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Grace Fiaseu	+2.3
10	5-5	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.8
11	5-6	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Samantha Pope	+1.8
12	6-6	AIRFOR	UALR	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Alyssa Boyte	+1.8
13	7-6	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Lainie Stapleton	blk Avery Fearnley	+2.5
14	7-7	UALR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Bella Cherry	blk Zoe Kirby, Alysa Walker	+1.9
15	8-7	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Bella Cherry	+2.0
16	8-8	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+1.9
17	9-8	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+2.0
18	10-8	UALR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Skyler Perez	+2.7
19	10-9	UALR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.9
20	10-10	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+2.7
21	10-11	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+2.7
22	10-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Ella Vogel	+2.7
23	11-12	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Lily King	+1.9
24	11-13	UALR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Lovina Teel	blk Jenness Orcutt, Grace Fiaseu	+2.1
25	11-14	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+2.5
26	12-14	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+1.7
27	13-14	UALR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.7
28	13-15	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+2.2
29	14-15	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.1
30	14-16	UALR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte	blk Zoe Kirby	+2.4
31	15-16	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Morgan Creer	+2.2
32	15-17	UALR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+2.5
33	15-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+2.9
34	15-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.4
35	15-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.7
36	16-20	AIRFOR	UALR	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.8
37	17-20	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Lainie Stapleton		+1.7
38	17-21	UALR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Morgan Creer	blk Zoe Kirby	+1.8
39	18-21	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.2
40	18-22	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.8
41	19-22	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+1.1
42	19-23	UALR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.7
43	19-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+1.1
44	19-25	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Morgan Creer		+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×7	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+1.2
2	0-2	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×7	Kill	Annamaria Ramos		+1.2
3	0-3	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×7	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.1
4	0-4	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×7	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
5	0-5	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×7	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Lovina Teel	+0.9
6	0-6	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×7	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+0.8
7	0-7	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×7	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Ella Vogel	+0.7
8	1-7	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lovina Teel	+0.4
9	1-8	UALR	AIRFOR	Serve err	UALR server		+0.5
10	1-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte		+0.5
11	2-9	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.3
12	3-9	UALR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.5
13	3-10	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+0.5
14	4-10	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.4
15	4-11	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Samantha Pope	+0.5
16	4-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+0.5
17	5-12	AIRFOR	UALR×3	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.3
18	6-12	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt		+0.5
19	7-12	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	UALR server	aced Ella Vogel	+0.6
20	7-13	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+0.6
21	8-13	AIRFOR	UALR×3	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Polianna Hernandez	+0.5
22	9-13	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.8
23	10-13	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alyssa Boyte	+1.1
24	10-14	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.0
25	11-14	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.8
26	11-15	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
27	12-15	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Skyler Perez	+0.8
28	12-16	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
29	13-16	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+0.8
30	14-16	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.4
31	14-17	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.3
32	15-17	AIRFOR	UALR	Attack err	Annamaria Ramos		+1.1
33	16-17	UALR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.8
34	16-18	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.6
35	17-18	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Lily King	+1.4
36	17-19	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.7
37	18-19	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+1.5
38	18-20	UALR	AIRFOR	Serve err	UALR server		+1.8
39	19-20	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+1.6
40	19-21	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.9
41	19-22	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Ella Vogel	+2.1
42	20-22	AIRFOR	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Mia Loyd	+1.1
43	20-23	UALR	AIRFOR	Serve err	UALR server		+1.6
44	20-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.2
45	21-24	AIRFOR	UALR	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.3
46	22-24	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu	blk Lorena Keselj	+0.9
47	22-25	UALR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.5

Score shown after each rally, Little Rock first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.