FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayMOUNTAIN-WEST

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Utah def. Air Force 3–0

(25-14, 25-20, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
AIRFOR	14	20	19	0
UTAH	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UTAH above 50 · AIRFOR below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Air Force — set 2, AIRFOR 8-3 UTAH. Bad set by Izzy Mogridge. UTAH win probability 96% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

AIRFOR 3.3%96.7% UTAH

Air Force wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.9%

3-2

2.1%

Utah wins

3-0

61.0%

3-1

27.8%

3-2

7.9%

AIRFOR break %: 33.7% vs this opp
UTAH break %: 47.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Izzy MogridgeBad set+0.6%
Bad set by Izzy Mogridge
Set 2 · AIRFOR 8-3 UTAH · AIRFOR 4% → 4%
02
AIRFOR serverAce+0.5%
Air Force ace on Team
Set 2 · AIRFOR 5-1 UTAH · AIRFOR 3% → 3%
03
Levani FalateaAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Levani Falatea
Set 2 · AIRFOR 19-20 UTAH · AIRFOR 1% → 2%
04
Kamryn GibadloAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Kamryn Gibadlo
Set 2 · AIRFOR 14-14 UTAH · AIRFOR 2% → 2%
05
Kamryn GibadloKill+0.5%
Kill by Kamryn Gibadlo (set by Izzy Mogridge)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 8-5 UTAH · UTAH 96% → 97%
06
UTAH serverAce+0.5%
Utah ace on Kennedy Simon
Set 2 · AIRFOR 8-6 UTAH · UTAH 97% → 97%
07
Kamryn GibadloKill+0.5%
Kill by Kamryn Gibadlo (set by Izzy Mogridge)
Set 2 · AIRFOR 8-7 UTAH · UTAH 97% → 98%
08
Kamryn GibadloAttack error+0.5%
Kamryn Gibadlo stuffed by Grace Fiaseu
Set 2 · AIRFOR 3-0 UTAH · AIRFOR 2% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Air Forceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
44Grace FiaseuMB	3	3	1	8	.250	1	1	0	5	0	2	1	2.5	6.5
6Karina MendivilOH	3	4	6	24	-.083	0	0	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
55Kennedy SimonOH	3	3	7	20	-.200	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	3
8Lainie StapletonOH	3	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
11Mia LoydS	3	0	0	0	–	8	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
30Zoe KirbyMB	2	0	2	2	-1.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Jenness OrcuttOH	3	5	2	15	.200	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
40Ella VogelL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
1Aylani CorreaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Samantha PopeS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
5Sonia OkparaMB	2	1	1	6	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3
14Annamaria RamosOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		18	20	81	-.025	17	2	2	32	9	3	6	6	53

Utahhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAHMB	3	8	2	12	.500	0	0	1	1	0	4	2	5	13
18Kamryn GibadloOH	3	10	4	24	.250	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	11.5
4Loryn HelgesenOPP	3	2	2	11	.000	1	0	0	2	0	1	4	3	5
2Izzy MogridgeS	3	1	0	1	1.000	21	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	1
11McKenna PayneL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Katelynn FieldMB	2	3	0	5	.600	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	1	5
6Ashley WestOH	3	5	3	13	.154	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
10Levani FalateaOH	3	1	5	8	-.500	0	3	1	3	1	0	0	0	4
3Isabelle MarcoS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	3	1	4	0	0	0	0	3
8Sierra GrizzleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	1	13	0	0	0	0	2
1Lana MijacicMB	2	6	0	10	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
17Allie GrossenbachOH	2	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
5Suttyn HarrisOH	2	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
7DyBorrah JohnsonMB	1	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
14Olga MusialOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
16Devyn WiestOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Grace MossL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Langley GriffinOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	19	99	.232	38	9	12	37	2	7	12	13	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 AIRFOR · UTAH 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 AIRFORUTAH 5

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 AIRFORUTAH 8

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 6 AIRFORUTAH 4

Bars above the line = Utah leads, below = Air Force leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Air Force

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	25%2/8
2	75%6/8	30%3/10
3	60%6/10	40%4/10
4	43%6/14	33%3/9
5	28%5/18	25%2/8
6	40%4/10	50%5/10
All	47%34/73	35%19/55

Utah

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	62%8/13
2	67%6/9	33%3/9
3	75%6/8	33%3/9
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	86%6/7	71%15/21
6	42%5/12	58%7/12
All	65%36/55	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	AIRFOR-UTAH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Sierra Grizzle	+0.3
2	0-2	UTAH	UTAH	Kill	Katelynn Field	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.4
3	1-2	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
4	1-3	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Katelynn Field	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.2
5	2-3	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
6	2-4	AIRFOR	UTAH	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Katelynn Field, Loryn Helgesen	+0.3
7	2-5	UTAH	UTAH	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.3
8	3-5	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.2
9	4-5	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Loryn Helgesen		+0.4
10	4-6	AIRFOR	UTAH×5	Kill	Katelynn Field	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.3
11	4-7	UTAH	UTAH×5	Ace	UTAH server	aced Team	+0.3
12	4-8	UTAH	UTAH×5	Attack err	Zoe Kirby		+0.3
13	4-9	UTAH	UTAH×5	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	+0.2
14	4-10	UTAH	UTAH×5	Attack err	Zoe Kirby	blk OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	+0.1
15	5-10	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.1
16	5-11	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Loryn Helgesen	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
17	6-11	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.1
18	6-12	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Isabelle Marco	+0.1
19	7-12	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Jenness Orcutt	+0.1
20	7-13	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Isabelle Marco	+0.1
21	8-13	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Grace Fiaseu	+0.1
22	9-13	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Ashley West		+0.2
23	9-14	AIRFOR	UTAH	Bad set	Karina Mendivil		+0.1
24	10-14	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
25	10-15	AIRFOR	UTAH×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+0.1
26	10-16	UTAH	UTAH×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Katelynn Field, Loryn Helgesen	+0.1
27	10-17	UTAH	UTAH×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil		+0.1
28	11-17	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.0
29	12-17	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Zoe Kirby	+0.1
30	12-18	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Allie Grossenbach	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
31	13-18	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.1
32	13-19	AIRFOR	UTAH×4	Kill	Levani Falatea	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
33	13-20	UTAH	UTAH×4	Ace	UTAH server	aced Team	+0.1
34	13-21	UTAH	UTAH×4	Ace	UTAH server	aced Kennedy Simon	+0.0
35	13-22	UTAH	UTAH×4	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Ashley West	+0.0
36	14-22	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.0
37	14-23	AIRFOR	UTAH×3	Kill	Ashley West	set Isabelle Marco	+0.0
38	14-24	UTAH	UTAH×3	Kill	Ashley West	set Isabelle Marco	+0.0
39	14-25	UTAH	UTAH×3	Ace	UTAH server	aced Kennedy Simon	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UTAH	AIRFOR×3	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.2
2	2-0	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Kamryn Gibadlo	blk Grace Fiaseu, Lainie Stapleton	+0.4
3	3-0	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Kamryn Gibadlo	blk Grace Fiaseu	+0.5
4	3-1	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.3
5	4-1	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.3
6	5-1	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Team	+0.5
7	5-2	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Lana Mijacic	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.3
8	6-2	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.4
9	6-3	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Izzy Mogridge	set Loryn Helgesen	+0.3
10	7-3	UTAH	AIRFOR	Attack err	Levani Falatea	blk Sonia Okpara, Karina Mendivil	+0.4
11	8-3	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Bad set	Izzy Mogridge		+0.6
12	8-4	AIRFOR	UTAH×8	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Lana Mijacic, Loryn Helgesen	+0.3
13	8-5	UTAH	UTAH×8	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.5
14	8-6	UTAH	UTAH×8	Ace	UTAH server	aced Kennedy Simon	+0.5
15	8-7	UTAH	UTAH×8	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.5
16	8-8	UTAH	UTAH×8	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+0.4
17	8-9	UTAH	UTAH×8	Ace	UTAH server	aced Team	+0.4
18	8-10	UTAH	UTAH×8	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	+0.3
19	8-11	UTAH	UTAH×8	Kill	Loryn Helgesen	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.3
20	9-11	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.2
21	9-12	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.2
22	10-12	UTAH	AIRFOR	Attack err	Levani Falatea	blk Grace Fiaseu	+0.2
23	11-12	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Levani Falatea	+0.3
24	11-13	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Ashley West	set Isabelle Marco	+0.2
25	12-13	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Mia Loyd	+0.3
26	12-14	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Isabelle Marco	+0.3
27	13-14	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.3
28	14-14	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Kamryn Gibadlo		+0.5
29	14-15	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Ashley West	set Isabelle Marco	+0.3
30	14-16	UTAH	UTAH	Attack err	Lainie Stapleton	blk Lana Mijacic, Kamryn Gibadlo	+0.4
31	15-16	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.3
32	15-17	AIRFOR	UTAH	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk Loryn Helgesen	+0.3
33	16-17	UTAH	AIRFOR	Attack err	Loryn Helgesen		+0.3
34	16-18	AIRFOR	UTAH	Attack err	Sonia Okpara		+0.3
35	17-18	UTAH	AIRFOR	Attack err	Kamryn Gibadlo	blk Sonia Okpara	+0.3
36	17-19	AIRFOR	UTAH	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu		+0.4
37	17-20	UTAH	UTAH	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Samantha Pope	+0.4
38	18-20	UTAH	AIRFOR	Attack err	Levani Falatea		+0.2
39	19-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Levani Falatea		+0.5
40	19-21	AIRFOR	UTAH×4	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Isabelle Marco	+0.4
41	19-22	UTAH	UTAH×4	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Isabelle Marco	+0.4
42	19-23	UTAH	UTAH×4	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Ashley West, OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	+0.2
43	19-24	UTAH	UTAH×4	Attack err	Kennedy Simon	blk Kamryn Gibadlo	+0.1
44	20-24	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.0
45	20-25	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Isabelle Marco	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	AIRFOR	UTAH	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.1
2	1-1	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
3	1-2	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
4	2-2	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
5	2-3	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Lana Mijacic	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
6	3-3	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.1
7	3-4	AIRFOR	UTAH×3	Kill	Lana Mijacic	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
8	3-5	UTAH	UTAH×3	Attack err	Karina Mendivil	blk OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH, Loryn Helgesen	+0.1
9	3-6	UTAH	UTAH×3	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt	blk OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	+0.1
10	4-6	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Sonia Okpara	set Samantha Pope	+0.1
11	4-7	AIRFOR	UTAH×3	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.1
12	4-8	UTAH	UTAH×3	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Isabelle Marco	+0.1
13	4-9	UTAH	UTAH×3	Ace	UTAH server	aced Team	+0.1
14	5-9	UTAH	AIRFOR×6	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.0
15	6-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×6	Attack err	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH		+0.1
16	7-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×6	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.1
17	8-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×6	Attack err	Ashley West		+0.1
18	9-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×6	Attack err	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH		+0.2
19	10-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×6	Attack err	Levani Falatea		+0.2
20	10-10	AIRFOR	UTAH×4	Kill	OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	set Isabelle Marco	+0.1
21	10-11	UTAH	UTAH×4	Ace	UTAH server	aced Kennedy Simon	+0.2
22	10-12	UTAH	UTAH×4	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt		+0.2
23	10-13	UTAH	UTAH×4	Ace	UTAH server	aced Team	+0.1
24	11-13	UTAH	AIRFOR	Kill	Kennedy Simon	set Jenness Orcutt	+0.1
25	11-14	AIRFOR	UTAH×3	Kill	Ashley West	set Isabelle Marco	+0.1
26	11-15	UTAH	UTAH×3	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Isabelle Marco	+0.1
27	11-16	UTAH	UTAH×3	Attack err	Kennedy Simon		+0.1
28	12-16	UTAH	AIRFOR	Attack err	Ashley West		+0.0
29	12-17	AIRFOR	UTAH×3	Kill	Lana Mijacic	set OMONIGHO PRINCESS ATAMAH	+0.0
30	12-18	UTAH	UTAH×3	Kill	Kamryn Gibadlo	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.0
31	12-19	UTAH	UTAH×3	Kill	Lana Mijacic	set Mia Loyd	+0.0
32	13-19	UTAH	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Karina Mendivil	set Mia Loyd	+0.0
33	14-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Allie Grossenbach	blk Lainie Stapleton, Sonia Okpara	+0.0
34	15-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Sonia Okpara	+0.0
35	15-20	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Olga Musial	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.0
36	16-20	UTAH	AIRFOR	Serve err	UTAH server		+0.0
37	17-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Suttyn Harris		+0.1
38	17-21	AIRFOR	UTAH×3	Kill	Lana Mijacic	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
39	17-22	UTAH	UTAH×3	Kill	DyBorrah Johnson	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.1
40	17-23	UTAH	UTAH×3	Kill	DyBorrah Johnson	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.0
41	18-23	UTAH	AIRFOR	Attack err	Suttyn Harris		+0.0
42	19-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Bad set	Izzy Mogridge		+0.0
43	19-24	AIRFOR	UTAH	Kill	Allie Grossenbach	set Izzy Mogridge	+0.0
44	19-25	UTAH	UTAH	Kill	Suttyn Harris	set Sierra Grizzle	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Air Force first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.