Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on MW+

Grand Canyon def. Air Force 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Grand Canyon 67.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 6:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Grand Canyon won at Air Force 3-1 (25-22, 16-25, 25-22, 27-25) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Grand Canyon's Starr Williams led with 25 kills, and Bella Anderson added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set1234Sets
GCANYN251625273
AIRFOR222522251

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Starr Williams scored 27 points, and Grand Canyon needed them all against Air Force.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Grand Canyon's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Grand Canyon at 67%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Grand Canyon 22–22 Air Force

    From 22–22, Grand Canyon scored 3 straight to lead 25–22.

    Grand Canyon 62% → 83%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Grand Canyon 13–15 Air Force

    Down 13–15, Grand Canyon scored 5 straight to lead 18–15.

    Grand Canyon 74% → 93%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Grand Canyon 24–24 Air Force

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Grand Canyon, enough to take the set 27–25 and win the match 3–1.

    Grand Canyon 79% → >99%

Air Force above 50Grand Canyon belowMax swing 11.7%

Grand CanyonAir Force

Sideout %
Grand Canyon 61.1·Air Force 62.0
Break %
Grand Canyon 38.0·Air Force 38.9
Hitting
Grand Canyon .214·Air Force .235
Longest run
Grand Canyon 5·Air Force 4

Starr Williams
25 kills on .347, 27 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Air Force above 50 · Grand Canyon below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.7% AIRFORrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.7% to Air Force — set 4, GCANYN 23-24 AIRFOR. Ace by Aylani Correa on Nika Zupanic. AIRFOR win probability 18% → 29%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

GCANYN 66.3%33.7% AIRFOR

Grand Canyon wins

3-0
20.8%
3-1
25.4%
3-2
20.0%

Air Force wins

3-0
6.8%
3-1
12.0%
3-2
14.9%
GCANYN break %
41.9% vs this opp
AIRFOR break %
38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Aylani CorreaAce+11.7%

    Ace by Aylani Correa on Nika Zupanic

    Set 4 · GCANYN 23-24 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 18% → 29%

  2. 02
    Katie SchulzAce+11.1%

    Ace by Katie Schulz on Annamaria Ramos

    Set 4 · GCANYN 26-25 AIRFOR · GCANYN 79% → 90%

  3. 03
    Starr WilliamsKill+10.2%

    Kill by Starr Williams (set by Taylor Kubacak)

    Set 4 · GCANYN 27-25 AIRFOR · GCANYN 90% → 100%

  4. 04

    Kill by Starr Williams (set by Bella Anderson)

    Set 3 · GCANYN 24-22 AIRFOR · GCANYN 69% → 78%

  5. 05
    Annamaria RamosAttack error+8.9%

    Attack error by Annamaria Ramos

    Set 4 · GCANYN 23-22 AIRFOR · GCANYN 79% → 88%

  6. 06

    Kill by Jenness Orcutt (set by Mia Loyd)

    Set 3 · GCANYN 22-22 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 30% → 38%

  7. 07
    Kaela JenkinsBlock+8.1%

    Annamaria Ramos stuffed by Kaela Jenkins

    Set 4 · GCANYN 24-24 AIRFOR · GCANYN 71% → 79%

  8. 08
    Bella NunezAttack error+8.1%

    Attack error by Bella Nunez

    Set 4 · GCANYN 24-25 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 21% → 29%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
425849.3470009020227
47213.38510040132.59.5
46519.0532412901229
4011-1.0002000800000
4000–100410000
2015-.200000200000
412335.2571103102114
47321.19000050212.59.5
4003.0005001800000
4000–401520000
3128-.125000103245
Team totals5825154.21456236849101493
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418644.273000200010.518.5
49221.3330132034515
412425.3200000012214
410636.111012101010.511.5
49223.30400000031.510.5
4000–3102400000
44316.06310030010.54.5
4000–012000001
4000–2311700001
4001.0002001710000
Team totals6223166.235574106324121094

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Grand Canyon vs Air Force

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 GCANYN · AIRFOR 4

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 GCANYNAIRFOR 3

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 GCANYNAIRFOR 4

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 GCANYNAIRFOR 4

Set 4

27-25

Longest run 5 GCANYNAIRFOR 3

Bars above the line = Air Force leads, below = Grand Canyon leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Grand Canyon

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
50%9/18
2
71%10/14
41%7/17
3
59%10/17
50%10/20
4
71%10/14
33%5/15
5
64%9/14
18%2/11
6
53%8/15
18%2/11
All
61%58/95
38%35/92

Air Force

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%10/22
52%11/21
2
50%10/20
38%6/16
3
59%10/17
29%4/14
4
100%9/9
38%6/16
5
75%9/12
44%7/16
6
75%9/12
25%3/12
All
62%57/92
39%37/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#GCANYN-AIRFORSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1AIRFORAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+2.4
20-2AIRFORAIRFORBlockedStarr Williamsblk Sonia Okpara, Jenness Orcutt+2.5
31-2AIRFORGCANYNBlockedAlysa Walkerblk Bella Nunez+1.6
41-3GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+1.8
52-3AIRFORGCANYN×3KillAubrey Bellusset Taylor Kubacak+1.6
63-3GCANYNGCANYN×3KillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+2.5
74-3GCANYNGCANYN×3Attack errAlysa Walker+2.5
84-4GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+1.7
95-4AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+1.7
105-5GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+1.7
116-5AIRFORGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+1.7
126-6GCANYNAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+1.8
137-6AIRFORGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+1.8
147-7GCANYNAIRFOR×3BlockedBella Nunezblk Grace Fiaseu+1.8
157-8AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errAubrey Goodere+2.9
167-9AIRFORAIRFOR×3AceAnnamaria Ramosaced Nika Zupanic+3.0
178-9AIRFORGCANYNAttack errJenness Orcutt+1.9
189-9GCANYNGCANYNAttack errGrace Fiaseu+2.9
199-10GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+2.1
2010-10AIRFORGCANYNServe errGrace Fiaseu+2.0
2110-11GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+2.2
2211-11AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+2.1
2312-11GCANYNGCANYNBlockedAlysa Walkerblk Macey Hughes+3.1
2412-12GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.2
2513-12AIRFORGCANYN×4KillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+2.2
2614-12GCANYNGCANYN×4BlockedSonia Okparablk Aubrey Bellus, Katie Schulz+3.1
2715-12GCANYNGCANYN×4KillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+2.7
2816-12GCANYNGCANYN×4KillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+2.2
2916-13GCANYNAIRFORAttack errBella Nunez+1.2
3017-13AIRFORGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+1.5
3117-14GCANYNAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Samantha Pope+1.2
3217-15AIRFORAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+2.5
3318-15AIRFORGCANYNServe errMia Loyd+2.0
3418-16GCANYNAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+1.7
3519-16AIRFORGCANYNServe errAnnamaria Ramos+2.1
3620-16GCANYNGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Gentry Oblad+2.4
3720-17GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.1
3820-18AIRFORAIRFORAttack errStarr Williams+2.5
3921-18AIRFORGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Taylor Kubacak+2.3
4022-18GCANYNGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+2.3
4122-19GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+0.9
4223-19AIRFORGCANYNBlockedAlysa Walkerblk Aubrey Bellus, Bella Nunez+1.5
4323-20GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+0.7
4424-20AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+1.3
4524-21GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+0.4
4624-22AIRFORAIRFORBlockedAubrey Bellusblk Grace Fiaseu+1.4
4725-22AIRFORGCANYNServe errAylani Correa+2.2
Set 2
10-1GCANYNAIRFORBlockedBella Nunezblk Alysa Walker, Grace Fiaseu+1.4
20-2AIRFORAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.1
31-2AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.4
42-2GCANYNGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Bella Anderson+2.0
52-3GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.5
63-3AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.4
74-3GCANYNGCANYNAceBella Nunezaced Ella Vogel+2.1
84-4GCANYNAIRFOR×3KillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+1.4
94-5AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errStarr Williams+2.2
104-6AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errAubrey Bellus+2.3
115-6AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+1.5
125-7GCANYNAIRFOR×4KillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+1.6
135-8AIRFORAIRFOR×4Attack errMacey Hughes+2.4
145-9AIRFORAIRFOR×4BlockedKatie Schulzblk Sonia Okpara, Bella Christensen+2.3
155-10AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+2.1
166-10AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+1.1
176-11GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+1.4
187-11AIRFORGCANYNAttack errBella Christensen+1.1
197-12GCANYNAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+1.5
208-12AIRFORGCANYNServe errMia Loyd+1.1
219-12GCANYNGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+2.0
229-13GCANYNAIRFOR×3KillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+1.7
239-14AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errBella Nunez+2.2
249-15AIRFORAIRFOR×3BlockedStarr Williamsblk Grace Fiaseu, Jenness Orcutt+1.7
2510-15AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+0.8
2611-15GCANYNGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Bella Anderson+1.6
2711-16GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+1.5
2811-17AIRFORAIRFORKillSonia Okpara+1.7
2912-17AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+0.7
3012-18GCANYNAIRFOR×3KillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+1.1
3112-19AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAlysa Walkerset Bella Christensen+1.1
3212-20AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errStarr Williams+0.6
3313-20AIRFORGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Bella Nunez+0.2
3413-21GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+0.3
3514-21AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+0.1
3614-22GCANYNAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+0.3
3715-22AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Anderson+0.1
3816-22GCANYNGCANYNBlockedBella Christensenblk Katie Schulz, Kaela Jenkins+0.2
3916-23GCANYNAIRFOR×3KillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+0.3
4016-24AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+0.1
4116-25AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd·
Set 3
10-1AIRFORAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+3.4
21-1AIRFORGCANYNServe errGrace Fiaseu+2.2
32-1GCANYNGCANYNBlockedJenness Orcuttblk Starr Williams+3.2
42-2GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+2.3
52-3AIRFORAIRFORAttack errStarr Williams+3.5
63-3AIRFORGCANYN×3Serve errSamantha Pope+2.3
74-3GCANYNGCANYN×3KillMacey Hughesset Ella Vogel+3.4
85-3GCANYNGCANYN×3BlockedSonia Okparablk Aubrey Bellus, Macey Hughes+3.2
95-4GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.2
105-5AIRFORAIRFORBlockedStarr Williamsblk Sonia Okpara+3.5
116-5AIRFORGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+2.4
127-5GCANYNGCANYNAttack errBella Christensen+3.4
137-6GCANYNAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+2.3
148-6AIRFORGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Bella Anderson+2.4
158-7GCANYNAIRFOR×4Serve errNika Zupanic+2.3
168-8AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+3.8
178-9AIRFORAIRFOR×4BlockedMacey Hughesblk Grace Fiaseu, Annamaria Ramos+4.1
188-10AIRFORAIRFOR×4KillAnnamaria Ramosset Mia Loyd+4.3
199-10AIRFORGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+2.7
2010-10GCANYNGCANYNBlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Kaela Jenkins+4.2
2110-11GCANYNAIRFORAttack errKatie Schulz+3.1
2211-11AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Taylor Kubacak+2.9
2311-12GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+3.2
2411-13AIRFORAIRFORAceGrace Fiaseuaced Gentry Oblad+4.8
2512-13AIRFORGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Taylor Kubacak+2.9
2613-13GCANYNGCANYNAttack errAlysa Walker+4.7
2713-14GCANYNAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+3.4
2813-15AIRFORAIRFORKillAlysa Walker+5.2
2914-15AIRFORGCANYN×4KillStarr Williamsset Bella Anderson+3.2
3015-15GCANYNGCANYN×4KillMacey Hughesset Aubrey Bellus+5.1
3116-15GCANYNGCANYN×4Attack errSonia Okpara+5.2
3217-15GCANYNGCANYN×4KillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+4.9
3317-16GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+3.1
3417-17AIRFORAIRFORAttack errMacey Hughes+5.5
3518-17AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+4.0
3619-17GCANYNGCANYNBlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Macey Hughes+5.5
3719-18GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+3.4
3820-18AIRFORGCANYNServe errAylani Correa+4.0
3920-19GCANYNAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+3.5
4021-19AIRFORGCANYNBlockedAlysa Walkerblk Kaela Jenkins+4.3
4121-20GCANYNAIRFORAttack errKatie Schulz+3.6
4222-20AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Taylor Kubacak+4.7
4322-21GCANYNAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+3.8
4422-22AIRFORAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+8.4
4523-22AIRFORGCANYN×3KillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+6.9
4624-22GCANYNGCANYN×3KillStarr Williamsset Bella Anderson+9.1
4725-22GCANYNGCANYN×3BlockedSonia Okparablk Aubrey Bellus+4.6
Set 4
10-1GCANYNAIRFORBlockedKaela Jenkinsblk Grace Fiaseu+2.0
21-1AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+1.9
31-2GCANYNAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.1
42-2AIRFORGCANYNKillAubrey Bellusset Taylor Kubacak+2.0
53-2GCANYNGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+2.9
63-3GCANYNAIRFORServe errBella Nunez+2.0
74-3AIRFORGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Bella Nunez+2.0
84-4GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Ella Vogel+2.1
95-4AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Nika Zupanic+2.0
105-5GCANYNAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Ella Vogel+2.1
116-5AIRFORGCANYNKillMacey Hughesset Katie Schulz+2.1
126-6GCANYNAIRFORKillAnnamaria Ramosset Samantha Pope+2.2
136-7AIRFORAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+3.4
147-7AIRFORGCANYNKillBella Nunezset Nika Zupanic+2.2
157-8GCANYNAIRFORKillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+2.4
168-8AIRFORGCANYNServe errAnnamaria Ramos+2.3
178-9GCANYNAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.5
189-9AIRFORGCANYNServe errGrace Fiaseu+2.4
199-10GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Mia Loyd+2.6
2010-10AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+2.4
2110-11GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+2.6
2211-11AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+2.5
2312-11GCANYNGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+3.8
2412-12GCANYNAIRFORKillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+2.6
2513-12AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Nika Zupanic+2.6
2613-13GCANYNAIRFOR×3KillBella Christensenset Samantha Pope+2.7
2713-14AIRFORAIRFOR×3Attack errKaela Jenkins+4.3
2813-15AIRFORAIRFOR×3KillGrace Fiaseuset Mia Loyd+4.5
2914-15AIRFORGCANYN×5BlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Kaela Jenkins, Bella Nunez+2.7
3015-15GCANYNGCANYN×5KillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+4.4
3116-15GCANYNGCANYN×5BlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Starr Williams+4.5
3217-15GCANYNGCANYN×5KillKaela Jenkinsset Taylor Kubacak+4.3
3318-15GCANYNGCANYN×5Attack errGrace Fiaseu+3.7
3418-16GCANYNAIRFORBlockedStarr Williamsblk Grace Fiaseu, Jenness Orcutt+2.1
3518-17AIRFORAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Mia Loyd+4.0
3619-17AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+3.2
3719-18GCANYNAIRFORKillJenness Orcuttset Mia Loyd+2.9
3819-19AIRFORAIRFORAttack errTaylor Kubacak+5.4
3920-19AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+4.0
4020-20GCANYNAIRFORServe errBella Nunez+4.1
4120-21AIRFORAIRFORAceSamantha Popeaced Katie Schulz+7.0
4221-21AIRFORGCANYNKillStarr Williamsset Bella Nunez+4.5
4321-22GCANYNAIRFORKillAlysa Walkerset Samantha Pope+5.5
4422-22AIRFORGCANYNKillKatie Schulzset Bella Nunez+5.1
4523-22GCANYNGCANYNAttack errAnnamaria Ramos+8.9
4623-23GCANYNAIRFORKillSonia Okparaset Samantha Pope+5.8
4723-24AIRFORAIRFORAceAylani Correaaced Nika Zupanic+11.7
4824-24AIRFORGCANYNBlockedAnnamaria Ramosblk Kaela Jenkins+8.1
4924-25GCANYNAIRFORAttack errBella Nunez+8.1
5025-25AIRFORGCANYN×3KillKatie Schulzset Nika Zupanic+8.1
5126-25GCANYNGCANYN×3AceKatie Schulzaced Annamaria Ramos+11.1
5227-25GCANYNGCANYN×3KillStarr Williamsset Taylor Kubacak+10.2

Score shown after each rally, Grand Canyon first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).