CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 10, 2026
UIW logo

AwaySOUTHLAND

1:3

Missouri St. def. UIW 31

(25-16, 21-25, 25-21, 25-22)
Set1234Sets
INCWRD162521221
MO ST252125253

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MO ST above 50 · INCWRD below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100MO STINCWRDBiggest swing +4.3% INCWRD · S2 21-19rally 180 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.3% to UIW — set 2, INCWRD 21-19 MO ST. UIW ace on Kya Johnson. MO ST win probability 78%74%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

INCWRD 29.9%70.1% MO ST

UIW wins

3-0
5.7%
3-1
10.5%
3-2
13.7%

Missouri St. wins

3-0
23.3%
3-1
26.9%
3-2
19.9%
INCWRD break %
39.8% vs this opp
MO ST break %
43.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    INCWRD serverAce+4.3%

    UIW ace on Kya Johnson

    Set 2 · INCWRD 21-19 MO ST · INCWRD 22%26%

  2. 02

    Kill by Teddy-Raye Ewers (set by Ashton Rogers)

    Set 2 · INCWRD 19-18 MO ST · INCWRD 18%22%

  3. 03

    Kill by Vanessa Eregie (set by Victoria Hall)

    Set 2 · INCWRD 22-19 MO ST · INCWRD 26%30%

  4. 04

    Kill by Kitana Tuufuli (set by Calissa Allison)

    Set 3 · INCWRD 2-1 MO ST · INCWRD 33%37%

  5. 05
    Rilynn FinleyKill+3.1%

    Kill by Rilynn Finley (set by Halle Rillie)

    Set 3 · INCWRD 2-3 MO ST · MO ST 66%69%

  6. 06
    Hannah GardnerAttack error+3.1%

    Attack error by Hannah Gardner

    Set 2 · INCWRD 17-17 MO ST · INCWRD 15%18%

  7. 07
    Jenna WaltersKill+3.0%

    Kill by Jenna Walters (set by Halle Rillie)

    Set 3 · INCWRD 3-5 MO ST · MO ST 69%72%

  8. 08
    Sofia GrimmKill+3.0%

    Kill by Sofia Grimm (set by Teddy-Raye Ewers)

    Set 2 · INCWRD 20-19 MO ST · INCWRD 19%22%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UIWaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412223.4350001004214
410329.2410004102111
47526.077233015002111
43416-.06302020031.56.5
31925-.320000100001
1004.00000010010.50.5
47520.100101521018
41011.0001310900002
40005202010002
4000002810000
33117.118000000214
Team totals4429161.0934283665114884
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412121.5240114004215
411529.2070001004213
411535.17100021010.511.5
49427.1852201130031.510.5
45217.17600000153.58.5
40002011120000
48628.071000410219
4203.667181190010.53.5
40004221820002
2000210520001
2000100500000
Team totals5823160.21949567281201196

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 INCWRD · MO ST 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 INCWRDMO ST 6

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 INCWRDMO ST 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 5 INCWRDMO ST 5

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 4 INCWRDMO ST 5

Bars above the line = Missouri St. leads, below = UIW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UIW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
50%9/18
2
60%9/15
36%5/14
3
53%8/15
44%7/16
4
73%8/11
20%2/10
5
44%8/18
38%5/13
6
47%7/15
43%6/14
All
53%50/95
40%34/85

Missouri St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%11/24
44%7/16
2
60%9/15
50%10/20
3
80%8/10
47%7/15
4
73%8/11
33%4/12
5
57%8/14
56%10/18
6
64%7/11
50%7/14
All
60%51/85
47%45/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

180 rallies

Rally log

#INCWRD-MO STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MO STINCWRD×3Attack errRilynn Finley+1.7
22-0INCWRDINCWRD×3AceINCWRD serveraced Brooke Eslinger+2.4
33-0INCWRDINCWRD×3AceINCWRD serveraced Brooke Eslinger+2.4
43-1INCWRDMO STAttack errAlex Beauchamp+1.6
54-1MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+1.8
65-1INCWRDINCWRDAttack errRilynn Finleyblk Vanessa Eregie, Lilly Roach+2.4
75-2INCWRDMO ST×4KillRilynn Finleyset Calissa Allison+1.5
85-3MO STMO ST×4KillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+2.3
95-4MO STMO ST×4Attack errTeddy-Raye Ewers+2.4
105-5MO STMO ST×4Attack errVanessa Eregie+2.4
116-5MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+1.9
126-6INCWRDMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+1.8
136-7MO STMO STAceMO ST serveraced Teddy-Raye Ewers+2.5
147-7MO STINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+1.8
157-8INCWRDMO ST×4KillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+1.8
167-9MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Victoria Hall+2.4
177-10MO STMO ST×4AceMO ST serveraced Ashton Rogers+2.2
187-11MO STMO ST×4Attack errCalissa Allison+1.9
198-11MO STINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+1.2
208-12INCWRDMO ST×6KillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+1.4
218-13MO STMO ST×6KillJenna Waltersset Kya Johnson+1.6
228-14MO STMO ST×6KillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+1.2
238-15MO STMO ST×6Attack errAlex Beauchampblk Hannah Redrow, Lexi Weinberg+0.8
248-16MO STMO ST×6Attack errCalissa Allisonblk Jenna Walters, Hannah Redrow+0.6
258-17MO STMO ST×6Attack errAlex Beauchamp+0.3
269-17MO STINCWRDServe errMO ST server+0.1
279-18INCWRDMO STKillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+0.2
2810-18MO STINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+0.1
2911-18INCWRDINCWRDAceINCWRD serveraced Rilynn Finley+0.3
3011-19INCWRDMO ST×3Attack errAlex Beauchampblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Redrow+0.3
3111-20MO STMO ST×3Bad setCalissa Allison+0.2
3211-21MO STMO ST×3KillLexi Weinbergset Riley Ourth+0.1
3312-21MO STINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+0.0
3412-22INCWRDMO STKillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+0.0
3513-22MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+0.0
3613-23INCWRDMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+0.0
3714-23MO STINCWRDAttack errJenna Walters+0.0
3815-23INCWRDINCWRDAttack errHannah Gardner+0.0
3915-24INCWRDMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+0.0
4016-24MO STINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+0.0
4116-25INCWRDMO STAttack errSofia Grimmblk Hannah Redrow+0.0
Set 2
10-1INCWRDMO STAttack errCalissa Allison+1.2
20-2MO STMO STAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewersblk Hannah Redrow, Lexi Weinberg+1.7
31-2MO STINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+1.2
41-3INCWRDMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.2
52-3MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+1.2
62-4INCWRDMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.2
72-5MO STMO STAttack errKitana Tuufuliblk Chloe Judd, Hannah Gardner+1.6
83-5MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+1.1
94-5INCWRDINCWRDAttack errRilynn Finleyblk Sofia Grimm, Kitana Tuufuli+1.7
104-6INCWRDMO STKillHalle Rillie+1.3
114-7MO STMO STAttack errGabby Fish+1.7
125-7MO STINCWRD×3KillCalissa Allisonset Brooke Eslinger+1.1
136-7INCWRDINCWRD×3AceINCWRD serveraced Kya Johnson+1.8
147-7INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errHannah Gardner+2.1
157-8INCWRDMO ST×3KillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+1.5
167-9MO STMO ST×3Attack errSofia Grimm+2.0
177-10MO STMO ST×3Attack errCalissa Allison+1.8
188-10MO STINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Calissa Allison+1.2
198-11INCWRDMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Kya Johnson+1.3
209-11MO STINCWRD×4KillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+1.2
2110-11INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errHannah Redrow+2.0
2211-11INCWRDINCWRD×4KillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+2.3
2312-11INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errJenna Waltersblk Vanessa Eregie, Calissa Allison+2.6
2412-12INCWRDMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.8
2513-12MO STINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Calissa Allison+2.0
2613-13INCWRDMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+1.9
2714-13MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+2.0
2814-14INCWRDMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.9
2914-15MO STMO STAceMO ST serveraced Kitana Tuufuli+2.8
3015-15MO STINCWRDAttack errChloe Judd+2.0
3115-16INCWRDMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Chloe Judd+2.1
3215-17MO STMO STAttack errSofia Grimm+2.7
3316-17MO STINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+1.8
3417-17INCWRDINCWRDAttack errHannah Gardner+3.1
3517-18INCWRDMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.3
3618-18MO STINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Ashton Rogers+2.4
3719-18INCWRDINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Ashton Rogers+3.8
3819-19INCWRDMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.6
3920-19MO STINCWRD×4KillSofia Grimmset Teddy-Raye Ewers+3.0
4021-19INCWRDINCWRD×4AceINCWRD serveraced Kya Johnson+4.3
4122-19INCWRDINCWRD×4KillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+3.7
4223-19INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errLexi Weinbergblk Teddy-Raye Ewers+2.6
4323-20INCWRDMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+0.8
4423-21MO STMO STAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewers+2.2
4524-21MO STINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+2.9
4625-21INCWRDINCWRDBad setHannah Gardner+1.6
Set 3
10-1MO STMO STAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewers+3.0
21-1MO STINCWRDAttack errLexi Weinberg+2.2
32-1INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+3.3
42-2INCWRDMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.3
52-3MO STMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+3.1
63-3MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+2.3
73-4INCWRDMO STAttack errKitana Tuufuliblk Hannah Gardner, Chloe Judd+2.3
83-5MO STMO STKillJenna Waltersset Halle Rillie+3.0
94-5MO STINCWRDKillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+2.2
104-6INCWRDMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+2.2
115-6MO STINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Calissa Allison+2.2
125-7INCWRDMO ST×5KillJenna Waltersset Brooke Eslinger+2.3
135-8MO STMO ST×5Attack errTeddy-Raye Ewers+2.9
145-9MO STMO ST×5KillLexi Weinbergset Brooke Eslinger+2.5
155-10MO STMO ST×5KillJenna Waltersset Brooke Eslinger+2.1
165-11MO STMO ST×5KillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+1.7
176-11MO STINCWRD×3Attack errLexi Weinberg+1.0
187-11INCWRDINCWRD×3AceINCWRD serveraced Jenna Walters+1.8
198-11INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errLexi Weinberg+2.3
208-12INCWRDMO STAttack errAlex Beauchamp+1.9
219-12MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+1.7
229-13INCWRDMO ST×4Attack errAlex Beauchampblk Lexi Weinberg, Hannah Redrow+2.0
239-14MO STMO ST×4KillChloe Juddset Ashton Rogers+2.2
249-15MO STMO ST×4KillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+1.7
259-16MO STMO ST×4KillChloe Judd+1.1
2610-16MO STINCWRDServe errMO ST server+0.6
2710-17INCWRDMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+0.8
2811-17MO STINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.5
2911-18INCWRDMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+0.7
3012-18MO STINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+0.5
3112-19INCWRDMO STKillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+0.7
3213-19MO STINCWRDServe errMO ST server+0.4
3313-20INCWRDMO STAttack errAlex Beauchamp+0.6
3413-21MO STMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+0.4
3514-21MO STINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+0.1
3614-22INCWRDMO STKillJenna Waltersset Hannah Gardner+0.2
3715-22MO STINCWRDBad setHannah Gardner+0.1
3815-23INCWRDMO STKillHannah Redrowset Hannah Gardner+0.2
3916-23MO STINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+0.0
4016-24INCWRDMO STKillChloe Juddset Hannah Gardner+0.1
4117-24MO STINCWRD×5KillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+0.0
4218-24INCWRDINCWRD×5KillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+0.0
4319-24INCWRDINCWRD×5Attack errRilynn Finleyblk Kitana Tuufuli, Sofia Grimm+0.1
4420-24INCWRDINCWRD×5AceINCWRD serveraced Riley Ourth+0.3
4521-24INCWRDINCWRD×5AceINCWRD serveraced Riley Ourth+0.8
4621-25INCWRDMO STKillHalle Rillieset Avery Sands+1.3
Set 4
11-0INCWRDINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+2.7
22-0INCWRDINCWRDAttack errRilynn Finleyblk Gabby Fish, Vanessa Eregie+2.9
32-1INCWRDMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Riley Ourth+1.9
42-2MO STMO STAttack errAlex Beauchamp+2.7
53-2MO STINCWRDServe errMO ST server+2.1
63-3INCWRDMO ST×4KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+2.0
73-4MO STMO ST×4KillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+2.7
83-5MO STMO ST×4KillHannah Gardnerset Halle Rillie+2.6
93-6MO STMO ST×4Attack errVanessa Eregieblk Rilynn Finley, Chloe Judd+2.4
104-6MO STINCWRDAttack errHannah Gardner+1.6
114-7INCWRDMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Halle Rillie+1.7
125-7MO STINCWRDAttack errJenna Waltersblk Sofia Grimm, Gabby Fish+1.7
135-8INCWRDMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+1.8
146-8MO STINCWRDKillVictoria Hallset Hannah Redrow+1.7
157-8INCWRDINCWRDServe errINCWRD server+2.7
167-9INCWRDMO STServe errINCWRD server+2.1
178-9MO STINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Calissa Allison+2.0
188-10INCWRDMO ST×4KillLexi Weinbergset Brooke Eslinger+2.1
198-11MO STMO ST×4Attack errAlex Beauchamp+2.7
208-12MO STMO ST×4KillRilynn Finley+2.3
218-13MO STMO ST×4Attack errCalissa Allison+1.9
229-13MO STINCWRDServe errMO ST server+1.1
239-14INCWRDMO ST×5KillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+1.3
249-15MO STMO ST×5AceMO ST serveraced Isabella Ceja+1.4
259-16MO STMO ST×5AceMO ST serveraced Teddy-Raye Ewers+1.0
269-17MO STMO ST×5KillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+0.6
279-18MO STMO ST×5KillChloe Juddset Ashton Rogers+0.4
2810-18MO STINCWRDKillGabby Fishset Calissa Allison+0.1
2910-19INCWRDMO STServe errINCWRD server+0.2
3011-19MO STINCWRD×3Serve errMO ST server+0.1
3112-19INCWRDINCWRD×3KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.3
3213-19INCWRDINCWRD×3KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.5
3313-20INCWRDMO STAttack errKitana Tuufuli+0.5
3413-21MO STMO STAttack errSofia Grimmblk Chloe Judd, Jenna Walters+0.4
3514-21MO STINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.1
3615-21INCWRDINCWRDAttack errJenna Walters+0.3
3715-22INCWRDMO STKillChloe Juddset Halle Rillie+0.4
3816-22MO STINCWRDAttack errJenna Walters+0.1
3916-23INCWRDMO STServe errINCWRD server+0.3
4017-23MO STINCWRD×4KillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Victoria Hall+0.1
4118-23INCWRDINCWRD×4KillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Victoria Hall+0.3
4219-23INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errJenna Walters+0.6
4320-23INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errLexi Weinbergblk Vanessa Eregie, Calissa Allison+1.2
4420-24INCWRDMO STKillLexi Weinbergset Hannah Gardner+1.6
4521-24MO STINCWRDKillTeddy-Raye Ewersset Victoria Hall+0.5
4622-24INCWRDINCWRDAttack errHannah Redrow+1.6
4722-25INCWRDMO STKillRilynn Finleyset Hannah Gardner+2.7

Score shown after each rally, UIW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.