FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

3:0

HomeMVC

UIW def. Southern Ill. 3–0

(25-18, 25-14, 25-19)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
INCWRD	25	25	25	3
SIU	18	14	19	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SIU above 50 · INCWRD below

Biggest swing: 1.6% to UIW — set 1, INCWRD 3-1 SIU. Kill by Gabby Fish (set by Ashton Rogers). SIU win probability 21% → 19%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

INCWRD 77.6%22.4% SIU

UIW wins

3-0

29.3%

3-1

29.5%

3-2

18.8%

Southern Ill. wins

3-0

3.8%

3-1

7.6%

3-2

11.0%

INCWRD break %: 47.3% vs this opp
SIU break %: 41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gabby FishKill+1.6%
Kill by Gabby Fish (set by Ashton Rogers)
Set 1 · INCWRD 3-1 SIU · INCWRD 79% → 81%
02
Chloe AndersonKill+1.6%
Kill by Chloe Anderson (set by McKenzie Moeller)
Set 2 · INCWRD 7-7 SIU · SIU 11% → 12%
03
Beatriz PiaiaAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Beatriz Piaia
Set 1 · INCWRD 6-3 SIU · INCWRD 81% → 82%
04
Gabby FishAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Gabby Fish
Set 2 · INCWRD 5-5 SIU · SIU 11% → 12%
05
Ella McFarlandAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Ella McFarland
Set 2 · INCWRD 9-7 SIU · INCWRD 89% → 90%
06
Ella McFarlandBad set+1.5%
Bad set by Ella McFarland
Set 1 · INCWRD 22-18 SIU · INCWRD 85% → 86%
07
Alex BeauchampKill+1.4%
Kill by Alex Beauchamp (set by Calissa Allison)
Set 1 · INCWRD 20-16 SIU · INCWRD 84% → 85%
08
Natalie VanceKill+1.4%
Kill by Natalie Vance (set by Ella McFarland)
Set 1 · INCWRD 1-1 SIU · SIU 21% → 22%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UIWaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Kitana TuufuliOH	3	12	4	28	.286	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	1.5	13.5
24Vanessa EregieMB	3	11	0	18	.611	1	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	12
12Sofia GrimmOPP	3	5	1	10	.400	1	1	0	3	0	0	2	1	7
5Calissa AllisonS	3	1	1	6	.000	33	0	3	15	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
7Teddy-Raye EwersOH	3	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	2
6Victoria HallS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	0
3Alex BeauchampOH	3	8	1	22	.318	1	0	0	4	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
13Gabby FishOPP	3	6	2	15	.267	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
16Ashton RogersL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	6	2	1	8	1	0	0	0	2
21Isabella CejaL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	0
1Alana KolbMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		46	9	110	.336	43	3	6	59	4	3	8	7	75

Southern Ill.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3McKenzie MoellerOH	3	10	5	39	.128	2	0	2	12	2	0	0	0	10
22Chloe AndersonMB	3	5	3	15	.133	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	2	7
8Alexandria ArringtonS	3	3	3	21	.000	5	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	4
4Ella McFarlandOPP	3	0	2	6	-.333	11	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	3
2Natalie VanceOPP	3	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
13Beatriz PiaiaMB	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
14Ella SwansigerOH	3	4	2	14	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
17Julia LaidigDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
11Jillian ShaneyfeltL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	12	1	0	0	0	0
21Isabella Del RealL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
15Ida AlmkvistOH	2	3	0	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
9Lillian DempkeyS	2	0	0	1	.000	8	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Una StepicOH	1	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
1Dafne SosaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Valentina ZevallosMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	16	124	.113	28	4	7	48	3	1	4	3	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 INCWRD · SIU 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 INCWRDSIU 3

Set 2*

25-14

Longest run 4 INCWRDSIU 2

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 INCWRDSIU 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ill. leads, below = UIW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UIW

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%6/14	33%2/6
2	83%5/6	62%8/13
3	80%4/5	33%2/6
4	67%4/6	60%6/10
5	100%4/4	43%3/7
6	100%4/4	33%2/6
All	69%27/39	48%23/48

Southern Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%5/13	57%8/14
2	67%4/6	17%1/6
3	40%4/10	20%1/5
4	57%4/7	33%2/6
5	67%4/6	0%0/4
6	67%4/6	0%0/4
All	52%25/48	31%12/39

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	INCWRD-SIU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SIU	INCWRD	Attack err	Chloe Anderson	blk Kitana Tuufuli	+1.3
2	1-1	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ella McFarland	+1.4
3	2-1	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+1.4
4	3-1	INCWRD	INCWRD	Kill	Gabby Fish	set Ashton Rogers	+1.6
5	3-2	INCWRD	SIU	Serve err	INCWRD server		+1.3
6	4-2	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+1.3
7	4-3	INCWRD	SIU	Attack err	Alex Beauchamp		+1.4
8	5-3	SIU	INCWRD×4	Serve err	SIU server		+1.4
9	6-3	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Attack err	Beatriz Piaia		+1.6
10	7-3	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+1.4
11	8-3	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Sofia Grimm	+1.1
12	8-4	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.8
13	9-4	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+0.9
14	9-5	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.8
15	10-5	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Alex Beauchamp	+0.9
16	11-5	INCWRD	INCWRD	Bad set	Lillian Dempkey		+0.9
17	11-6	INCWRD	SIU×3	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.6
18	11-7	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Ella McFarland	+1.1
19	11-8	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Kitana Tuufuli		+1.4
20	12-8	SIU	INCWRD×3	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+1.2
21	13-8	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+1.2
22	14-8	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Bad set	Lillian Dempkey		+0.9
23	14-9	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ella McFarland	+0.6
24	14-10	SIU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+1.1
25	15-10	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Ashton Rogers	+1.0
26	15-11	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Ella McFarland	+0.8
27	15-12	SIU	SIU	Ace	SIU server	aced Kitana Tuufuli	+1.4
28	16-12	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+1.3
29	17-12	INCWRD	INCWRD	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+1.3
30	17-13	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Isabella Del Real	+0.8
31	17-14	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Gabby Fish		+1.4
32	18-14	SIU	INCWRD	Serve err	SIU server		+1.4
33	18-15	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.2
34	19-15	SIU	INCWRD	Attack err	Ella Swansiger	blk Vanessa Eregie, Alex Beauchamp	+1.4
35	19-16	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.1
36	20-16	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Calissa Allison	+1.4
37	21-16	INCWRD	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+1.2
38	21-17	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.6
39	21-18	SIU	SIU	Bad set	Kitana Tuufuli		+1.3
40	22-18	SIU	INCWRD×4	Bad set	Ella McFarland		+1.5
41	23-18	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Ace	INCWRD server	aced McKenzie Moeller	+1.0
42	24-18	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Sofia Grimm	set Calissa Allison	+0.4
43	25-18	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Ashton Rogers	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	INCWRD	INCWRD	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller	blk Calissa Allison, Vanessa Eregie	+1.3
2	2-0	INCWRD	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+1.2
3	2-1	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.0
4	2-2	SIU	SIU	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.4
5	3-2	SIU	INCWRD	Serve err	SIU server		+1.1
6	4-2	INCWRD	INCWRD	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+1.3
7	4-3	INCWRD	SIU	Attack err	Kitana Tuufuli		+1.0
8	5-3	SIU	INCWRD	Attack err	Alexandria Arrington		+1.0
9	5-4	INCWRD	SIU	Attack err	Sofia Grimm	blk Chloe Anderson, Alexandria Arrington	+1.1
10	5-5	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Gabby Fish		+1.5
11	6-5	SIU	INCWRD	Serve err	SIU server		+1.2
12	7-5	INCWRD	INCWRD	Kill	Gabby Fish	set Calissa Allison	+1.4
13	7-6	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Ella McFarland	+1.1
14	7-7	SIU	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set McKenzie Moeller	+1.6
15	8-7	SIU	INCWRD×3	Serve err	SIU server		+1.3
16	9-7	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Attack err	Ella McFarland		+1.5
17	10-7	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.3
18	10-8	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+1.0
19	11-8	SIU	INCWRD×4	Kill	Gabby Fish	set Chloe Anderson	+1.1
20	12-8	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Calissa Allison	+1.2
21	13-8	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller	blk Calissa Allison	+1.0
22	14-8	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Ella McFarland	+0.7
23	14-9	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Ella McFarland	+0.5
24	15-9	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+0.6
25	15-10	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.5
26	16-10	SIU	INCWRD×3	Kill	Teddy-Raye Ewers	set Calissa Allison	+0.6
27	17-10	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Attack err	Ella Swansiger	blk Kitana Tuufuli, Sofia Grimm	+0.5
28	18-10	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+0.3
29	18-11	INCWRD	SIU	Serve err	INCWRD server		+0.2
30	19-11	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Teddy-Raye Ewers	set Calissa Allison	+0.2
31	19-12	INCWRD	SIU	Serve err	INCWRD server		+0.1
32	20-12	SIU	INCWRD×4	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+0.2
33	21-12	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Calissa Allison	+0.1
34	22-12	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Gabby Fish	set Ashton Rogers	+0.0
35	23-12	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Calissa Allison	+0.0
36	23-13	INCWRD	SIU	Serve err	INCWRD server		+0.0
37	24-13	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Sofia Grimm	set Calissa Allison	+0.0
38	24-14	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.0
39	25-14	SIU	INCWRD	Serve err	SIU server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	SIU	SIU×4	Ace	SIU server	aced Victoria Hall	+0.8
2	0-2	SIU	SIU×4	Attack err	Kitana Tuufuli	blk Chloe Anderson, Alexandria Arrington	+0.8
3	0-3	SIU	SIU×4	Ace	SIU server	aced Ashton Rogers	+0.9
4	0-4	SIU	SIU×4	Ace	SIU server	aced Victoria Hall	+0.9
5	1-4	SIU	INCWRD×4	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+0.6
6	2-4	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+0.8
7	3-4	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Ace	INCWRD server	aced McKenzie Moeller	+0.8
8	4-4	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Attack err	Chloe Anderson		+0.8
9	4-5	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Una Stepic	set Ella McFarland	+0.7
10	5-5	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Ashton Rogers	+0.7
11	6-5	INCWRD	INCWRD	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller	blk Gabby Fish, Sofia Grimm	+0.8
12	6-6	INCWRD	SIU	Attack err	Calissa Allison		+0.7
13	7-6	SIU	INCWRD×3	Attack err	Ella McFarland		+0.7
14	8-6	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Attack err	Alexandria Arrington	blk Alex Beauchamp	+0.8
15	9-6	INCWRD	INCWRD×3	Kill	Sofia Grimm	set Calissa Allison	+0.7
16	9-7	INCWRD	SIU	Serve err	INCWRD server		+0.5
17	10-7	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Gabby Fish	set Calissa Allison	+0.6
18	10-8	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.6
19	11-8	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Calissa Allison	+0.6
20	12-8	INCWRD	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+0.6
21	12-9	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Isabella Del Real	+0.5
22	13-9	SIU	INCWRD	Attack err	Chloe Anderson		+0.5
23	13-10	INCWRD	SIU	Attack err	Kitana Tuufuli	blk Chloe Anderson	+0.5
24	14-10	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Calissa Allison	set Vanessa Eregie	+0.5
25	14-11	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Ella McFarland	+0.5
26	15-11	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Sofia Grimm	set Isabella Del Real	+0.5
27	15-12	INCWRD	SIU	Serve err	INCWRD server		+0.5
28	16-12	SIU	INCWRD×4	Kill	Gabby Fish	set Calissa Allison	+0.5
29	17-12	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Sofia Grimm	set Ashton Rogers	+0.5
30	18-12	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Calissa Allison	+0.4
31	19-12	INCWRD	INCWRD×4	Attack err	Alexandria Arrington		+0.2
32	19-13	INCWRD	SIU	Bad set	Isabella Ceja		+0.1
33	19-14	SIU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.2
34	20-14	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Alana Kolb	set Calissa Allison	+0.3
35	20-15	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.2
36	21-15	SIU	INCWRD	Serve err	SIU server		+0.2
37	22-15	INCWRD	INCWRD	Kill	Alex Beauchamp	set Isabella Ceja	+0.2
38	22-16	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.1
39	23-16	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+0.1
40	23-17	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Alexandria Arrington	+0.0
41	23-18	SIU	SIU	Kill	Una Stepic	set McKenzie Moeller	+0.1
42	24-18	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Vanessa Eregie	set Calissa Allison	+0.1
43	24-19	INCWRD	SIU	Kill	Una Stepic	set Ella McFarland	+0.0
44	25-19	SIU	INCWRD	Kill	Kitana Tuufuli	set Calissa Allison	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, UIW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.