Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UTRGV def. UIW 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UIW 56.3% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UTRGV beat visiting UIW 3-1 (25-21, 18-25, 25-18, 26-24) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. UTRGV's Ema Petkovic led with 26 kills, and Celianiz Cabranes added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set1234Sets
INCWRD212518241
UTRGV251825263

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ema Petkovic hit .429 on 49 swings as UTRGV edged UIW.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are UTRGV's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, UIW was RallyIQ's 56% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · UIW 17–17 UTRGV

    UIW scored 5 straight to go from 17–17 to a 22–17 lead. The match swung to UIW.

    UTRGV 64% → 47%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · UIW 15–12 UTRGV

    UTRGV scored 5 straight to turn a 12–15 deficit into a 17–15 lead.

    UTRGV 59% → 83%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · UIW 23–23 UTRGV

    UTRGV won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 26–24 and win the match 3–1.

    UTRGV 71% → >99%

UTRGV above 50UIW belowMax swing 14.5%

UIWUTRGV

Sideout %
UIW 60.2·UTRGV 64.0
Break %
UIW 36.0·UTRGV 39.8
Hitting
UIW .204·UTRGV .248
Longest run
UIW 5·UTRGV 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UTRGV above 50 · UIW below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+14.5% UTRGVrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.5% to UTRGV — set 4, INCWRD 24-26 UTRGV. Kill by Julianna Bryant. UTRGV win probability 86% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

INCWRD 58.2%41.8% UTRGV

UIW wins

3-0
16.3%
3-1
22.2%
3-2
19.8%

UTRGV wins

3-0
9.4%
3-1
15.3%
3-2
17.1%
INCWRD break %
44.0% vs this opp
UTRGV break %
42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Julianna BryantKill+14.5%

    Kill by Julianna Bryant

    Set 4 · INCWRD 24-26 UTRGV · UTRGV 86% → 100%

  2. 02
    Ema PetkovicKill+14.1%

    Kill by Ema Petkovic (set by Sujeili Mermella)

    Set 4 · INCWRD 23-24 UTRGV · UTRGV 71% → 86%

  3. 03
    Lilly RoachKill+11.1%

    Kill by Lilly Roach (set by Calissa Allison)

    Set 4 · INCWRD 24-24 UTRGV · INCWRD 14% → 26%

  4. 04
    UIWService error+11.1%

    UIW service error

    Set 4 · INCWRD 24-25 UTRGV · UTRGV 74% → 86%

  5. 05
    Ema PetkovicAttack error+10.8%

    Attack error by Ema Petkovic

    Set 4 · INCWRD 23-22 UTRGV · INCWRD 26% → 37%

  6. 06
    Ema PetkovicKill+8.2%

    Kill by Ema Petkovic (set by Lana Rnjak)

    Set 4 · INCWRD 23-23 UTRGV · UTRGV 63% → 71%

  7. 07

    Kill by Soukeyna Diouf (set by Lana Rnjak)

    Set 4 · INCWRD 21-22 UTRGV · UTRGV 74% → 81%

  8. 08

    Soukeyna Diouf stuffed by Vanessa Eregie & Calissa Allison

    Set 4 · INCWRD 20-20 UTRGV · INCWRD 19% → 26%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UIWaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416638.2630005500016
49317.35311110010.510.5
48524.125231010002110
45020.25000020111.56.5
4000–2110600001
4015-.2000001300000
410217.4710000010111
45327.074100300005
4001.0006041810000
4000–002700000
1023-.667000000000
Team totals5322152.204523765624488
UTRGVhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
426549.42910280010.526.5
418744.250021100010.520.5
45121.190000001438
46626.00000020010.56.5
4217.14310000111.53.5
4106.16744131300213
4000–011000001
4000–5131920001
4000–3111110001
2000–101000000
Team totals5820153.24855612633210794

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UIW vs UTRGV

Season series · UTRGV leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 INCWRD · UTRGV 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 INCWRDUTRGV 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 INCWRDUTRGV 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 2 INCWRDUTRGV 2

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 4 INCWRDUTRGV 5

Bars above the line = UTRGV leads, below = UIW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UIW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
40%6/15
2
58%11/19
42%8/19
3
71%10/14
21%3/14
4
50%9/18
23%3/13
5
47%8/17
36%5/14
6
88%7/8
50%7/14
All
60%56/93
36%32/89

UTRGV

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
36%5/14
2
58%11/19
31%5/16
3
85%11/13
35%6/17
4
82%9/11
31%4/13
5
53%8/15
60%12/20
6
54%7/13
38%5/13
All
64%57/89
40%37/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#INCWRD-UTRGVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+1.8
21-1INCWRDUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+1.9
32-1UTRGVINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+1.9
42-2INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Dunja Stankovic+1.9
53-2UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+1.9
64-2INCWRDINCWRDAceUIWaced Dunja Stankovic+2.4
74-3INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+1.9
85-3UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+1.9
95-4INCWRDUTRGV×3KillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+1.9
105-5UTRGVUTRGV×3Attack errLilly Roach+2.6
115-6UTRGVUTRGV×3KillSoukeyna Dioufset Lana Rnjak+2.7
126-6UTRGVINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+2.1
136-7INCWRDUTRGVKillJulianna Bryantset Lana Rnjak+2.2
147-7UTRGVINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Calissa Allison+2.2
157-8INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+2.3
167-9UTRGVUTRGVAceUTRGVaced Kitana Tuufuli+2.9
178-9UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Ashton Rogers+2.2
188-10INCWRDUTRGVServe errUIW+2.3
198-11UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Aaliyah Snead+2.9
209-11UTRGVINCWRDBlockedMartina Francoblk Sofia Grimm, Calissa Allison+2.0
2110-11INCWRDINCWRDBlockedAaliyah Sneadblk Vanessa Eregie+2.9
2210-12INCWRDUTRGVAttack errCalissa Allison+2.5
2311-12UTRGVINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+2.3
2411-13INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+2.6
2512-13UTRGVINCWRDAttack errJulianna Bryant+2.4
2612-14INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Celianiz Cabranes+2.7
2713-14UTRGVINCWRD×3KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+2.5
2814-14INCWRDINCWRD×3KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+3.5
2915-14INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errSoukeyna Diouf+3.6
3015-15INCWRDUTRGVServe errUIW+2.9
3116-15UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+3.0
3217-15INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+3.8
3317-16INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.7
3417-17UTRGVUTRGVKillSoukeyna Dioufset Lana Rnjak+4.1
3518-17UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+3.4
3618-18INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+3.4
3719-18UTRGVINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Ashton Rogers+3.6
3819-19INCWRDUTRGVAttack errTeddy-Raye Ewers+3.6
3919-20UTRGVUTRGVAceUTRGVaced Kitana Tuufuli+5.2
4020-20UTRGVINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+4.0
4120-21INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+4.5
4220-22UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+5.7
4321-22UTRGVINCWRDAttack errEma Petkovic+3.6
4421-23INCWRDUTRGV×3KillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+5.1
4521-24UTRGVUTRGV×3BlockedKitana Tuufuliblk Julianna Bryant+4.8
4621-25UTRGVUTRGV×3Attack errKitana Tuufuli+2.0
Set 2
11-0INCWRDINCWRD×4KillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+2.5
22-0INCWRDINCWRD×4KillSofia Grimm+2.5
33-0INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errSoukeyna Diouf+2.4
44-0INCWRDINCWRD×4Attack errSoukeyna Diouf+2.2
54-1INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+1.6
65-1UTRGVINCWRD×3Serve errUTRGV+1.8
76-1INCWRDINCWRD×3KillSoukeyna Dioufset Victoria Hall+2.0
87-1INCWRDINCWRD×3KillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+1.7
97-2INCWRDUTRGVBlockedSofia Grimmblk Aaliyah Snead+1.2
107-3UTRGVUTRGVAceUTRGVaced Ashton Rogers+1.8
118-3UTRGVINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+1.6
128-4INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+1.4
139-4UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+1.6
149-5INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Celianiz Cabranes+1.4
159-6UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.2
1610-6UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+1.9
1710-7INCWRDUTRGV×3KillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+1.7
1810-8UTRGVUTRGV×3AceUTRGVaced Kitana Tuufuli+2.6
1910-9UTRGVUTRGV×3BlockedGabby Fishblk Soukeyna Diouf, Julianna Bryant+2.9
2011-9UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+2.4
2112-9INCWRDINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Calissa Allison+2.9
2212-10INCWRDUTRGVServe errUIW+2.1
2313-10UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+2.4
2414-10INCWRDINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Ashton Rogers+2.7
2514-11INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+1.8
2615-11UTRGVINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+2.1
2715-12INCWRDUTRGV×3Serve errUIW+1.8
2815-13UTRGVUTRGV×3Attack errCalissa Allison+2.9
2915-14UTRGVUTRGV×3KillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+3.4
3016-14UTRGVINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Victoria Hall+3.0
3116-15INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Celianiz Cabranes+2.8
3217-15UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+3.1
3317-16INCWRDUTRGVAttack errGabby Fish+2.9
3417-17UTRGVUTRGVKillJulianna Bryant+4.3
3518-17UTRGVINCWRD×5KillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+3.6
3619-17INCWRDINCWRD×5Attack errEma Petkovic+4.5
3720-17INCWRDINCWRD×5KillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+4.0
3821-17INCWRDINCWRD×5Attack errMartina Franco+3.1
3922-17INCWRDINCWRD×5KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+2.0
4022-18INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+0.8
4123-18UTRGVINCWRD×3Attack errMartina Franco+1.4
4224-18INCWRDINCWRD×3Attack errSoukeyna Diouf+0.7
4325-18INCWRDINCWRD×3KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+0.2
Set 3
10-1UTRGVUTRGVAttack errKitana Tuufuli+3.2
20-2UTRGVUTRGVAttack errKitana Tuufuli+3.3
31-2UTRGVINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+2.5
41-3INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+2.6
51-4UTRGVUTRGVBlockedCalissa Allisonblk Aaliyah Snead, Ema Petkovic+3.3
62-4UTRGVINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+2.4
72-5INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.6
82-6UTRGVUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+3.2
93-6UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+2.2
103-7INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+2.5
113-8UTRGVUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+3.0
124-8UTRGVINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Victoria Hall+2.0
134-9INCWRDUTRGVKillLana Rnjakset Celianiz Cabranes+2.4
144-10UTRGVUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+2.6
155-10UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+1.7
165-11INCWRDUTRGVKillSoukeyna Dioufset Lana Rnjak+2.1
175-12UTRGVUTRGVAceUTRGVaced Kitana Tuufuli+2.1
186-12UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+1.3
196-13INCWRDUTRGVKillAaliyah Sneadset Lana Rnjak+1.7
206-14UTRGVUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Celianiz Cabranes+1.6
217-14UTRGVINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+0.9
228-14INCWRDINCWRDAttack errSoukeyna Diouf+1.5
238-15INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+1.6
248-16UTRGVUTRGVAttack errKitana Tuufuli+1.5
259-16UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+0.7
269-17INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Dunja Stankovic+1.1
2710-17UTRGVINCWRDKillSofia Grimmset Victoria Hall+0.7
2810-18INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+1.0
2911-18UTRGVINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Ashton Rogers+0.6
3011-19INCWRDUTRGVBlockedAlex Beauchampblk Julianna Bryant, Lana Rnjak+0.9
3112-19UTRGVINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Alex Beauchamp+0.5
3212-20INCWRDUTRGVAttack errLilly Roach+0.8
3313-20UTRGVINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+0.4
3413-21INCWRDUTRGVKillSoukeyna Dioufset Lana Rnjak+0.7
3514-21UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+0.3
3615-21INCWRDINCWRDAceUIWaced Celianiz Cabranes+0.7
3715-22INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+0.9
3815-23UTRGVUTRGVAttack errCalissa Allison+0.5
3916-23UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+0.1
4017-23INCWRDINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+0.3
4117-24INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+0.4
4218-24UTRGVINCWRDAttack errEma Petkovic+0.1
4318-25INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+0.2
Set 4
10-1INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+2.7
20-2UTRGVUTRGVAttack errAlex Beauchamp+3.5
31-2UTRGVINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Ashton Rogers+2.6
41-3INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.8
52-3UTRGVINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Ashton Rogers+2.7
62-4INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+2.8
73-4UTRGVINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+2.7
84-4INCWRDINCWRDAttack errMartina Franco+3.6
94-5INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+2.9
104-6UTRGVUTRGVKillJulianna Bryant+3.8
115-6UTRGVINCWRDKillCalissa Allisonset Victoria Hall+2.8
125-7INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+3.1
136-7UTRGVINCWRDServe errUTRGV+2.9
146-8INCWRDUTRGVServe errUIW+3.1
157-8UTRGVINCWRDKillAlex Beauchampset Victoria Hall+3.0
167-9INCWRDUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Lana Rnjak+3.2
178-9UTRGVINCWRD×4Attack errMartina Franco+3.0
189-9INCWRDINCWRD×4BlockedMartina Francoblk Lilly Roach+4.2
1910-9INCWRDINCWRD×4KillKitana Tuufuliset Calissa Allison+4.2
2011-9INCWRDINCWRD×4KillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+4.2
2111-10INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+3.1
2212-10UTRGVINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Calissa Allison+3.4
2313-10INCWRDINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+4.0
2413-11INCWRDUTRGVServe errUIW+2.8
2513-12UTRGVUTRGVKillMartina Francoset Dunja Stankovic+4.2
2614-12UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Sofia Grimm+3.6
2715-12INCWRDINCWRDAttack errMartina Franco+4.3
2815-13INCWRDUTRGV×5BlockedSofia Grimmblk Julianna Bryant, Martina Franco+3.0
2915-14UTRGVUTRGV×5Bad setVictoria Hall+4.5
3015-15UTRGVUTRGV×5Attack errKitana Tuufuli+5.2
3115-16UTRGVUTRGV×5AceUTRGVaced Kitana Tuufuli+5.6
3215-17UTRGVUTRGV×5BlockedCalissa Allisonblk Julianna Bryant, Lana Rnjak+5.6
3316-17UTRGVINCWRDKillKitana Tuufuliset Victoria Hall+4.0
3417-17INCWRDINCWRDAttack errEma Petkovic+5.8
3517-18INCWRDUTRGV×3Attack errAlex Beauchamp+4.9
3617-19UTRGVUTRGV×3Attack errSofia Grimm+6.3
3717-20UTRGVUTRGV×3KillSoukeyna Dioufset Ema Petkovic+5.7
3818-20UTRGVINCWRD×3KillAlex Beauchampset Victoria Hall+3.5
3919-20INCWRDINCWRD×3AceUIWaced Celianiz Cabranes+5.9
4020-20INCWRDINCWRD×3BlockedSoukeyna Dioufblk Vanessa Eregie, Calissa Allison+7.2
4120-21INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+6.4
4221-21UTRGVINCWRDKillVanessa Eregieset Victoria Hall+6.2
4321-22INCWRDUTRGVKillSoukeyna Dioufset Lana Rnjak+7.3
4422-22UTRGVINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+7.0
4523-22INCWRDINCWRDAttack errEma Petkovic+10.8
4623-23INCWRDUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Lana Rnjak+8.2
4723-24UTRGVUTRGVKillEma Petkovicset Sujeili Mermella+14.1
4824-24UTRGVINCWRDKillLilly Roachset Calissa Allison+11.1
4924-25INCWRDUTRGVServe errUIW+11.1
5024-26UTRGVUTRGVKillJulianna Bryant+14.5

Score shown after each rally, UIW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).