Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Brown def. Harvard 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Harvard 71.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 3:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Brown beat visiting Harvard 3-1 (25-27, 25-14, 25-23, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Brown's Sophia Wolfson led with 17 kills, and Elle Holley added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
HARV271423191
BROWN252525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Sophie Haskell, and Brown needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Brown's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Harvard went in at 72% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Harvard 22–20 Brown

    Brown scored 4 straight to turn a 20–22 deficit into a 24–22 lead.

    Brown 22% → 45%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Harvard 5–5 Brown

    Brown scored 5 straight to go from 5–5 to a 10–5 lead.

    Brown 64% → 86%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Harvard 15–16 Brown

    6 straight Brown points stretched a 16–15 lead to 22–15.

    Brown 73% → 99%

Brown above 50Harvard belowMax swing 14.7%

HarvardBrown

Sideout %
Harvard 47.5·Brown 57.1
Break %
Harvard 42.9·Brown 52.5
Hitting
Harvard .285·Brown .323
Longest run
Harvard 6·Brown 6

Fisayo Afonja
6 kills inside the turning points, 16 K and .400 for the match (18 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Brown above 50 · Harvard below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+14.7% BROWNrally 183 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.7% to Brown — set 3, HARV 23-25 BROWN. Attack error by Kayla Nwabueze. BROWN win probability 48% → 63%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HARV 60.4%39.6% BROWN

Harvard wins

3-0
17.4%
3-1
23.1%
3-2
19.9%

Brown wins

3-0
8.6%
3-1
14.4%
3-2
16.6%
HARV break %
44.6% vs this opp
BROWN break %
42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kayla NwabuezeAttack error+14.7%

    Attack error by Kayla Nwabueze

    Set 3 · HARV 23-25 BROWN · BROWN 48% → 63%

  2. 02
    Fisayo AfonjaAttack error+10.0%

    Attack error by Fisayo Afonja

    Set 3 · HARV 23-23 BROWN · HARV 51% → 61%

  3. 03
    Fisayo AfonjaKill+9.7%

    Kill by Fisayo Afonja (set by Julia Kakkis)

    Set 3 · HARV 23-24 BROWN · BROWN 39% → 48%

  4. 04

    Kill by Kayla Nwabueze

    Set 1 · HARV 24-24 BROWN · HARV 58% → 68%

  5. 05
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+8.6%

    Point Harvard (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 1 · HARV 25-24 BROWN · HARV 68% → 76%

  6. 06

    Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Yvette Easton)

    Set 1 · HARV 27-25 BROWN · HARV 76% → 84%

  7. 07
    Fisayo AfonjaKill+7.6%

    Kill by Fisayo Afonja (set by Julia Kakkis)

    Set 1 · HARV 22-24 BROWN · BROWN 37% → 45%

  8. 08

    Kill by Sophia Wolfson

    Set 1 · HARV 22-23 BROWN · BROWN 30% → 37%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413333.30322141010.515.5
410125.3600152500011
48431.12900010052.510.5
47117.35300020132.59.5
4127-.14311010031.53.5
4011-1.00018031000000
49015.600000100009
41011.0001620401014
4000–400720000
3000–000700000
3000–300640000
Team totals4912130.28544694514212883
Brownhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417127.59300000052.519.5
416430.40011310302118
47625.040222151010.59.5
4508.625471090010.56.5
45311.182101000005
4000–0301100003
412532.21900030010.512.5
4000–5421120004
4000–030100003
Team totals6219133.323561486060105100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Harvard vs Brown

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 HARV · BROWN 6

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 6 HARVBROWN 4

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 HARVBROWN 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 HARVBROWN 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 HARVBROWN 6

Bars above the line = Brown leads, below = Harvard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Harvard

SlotSideout %Break %
1
18%2/11
50%2/4
2
33%2/6
67%4/6
3
50%1/2
33%1/3
4
100%1/1
75%3/4
5
33%1/3
0%0/1
6
100%1/1
50%1/2
All
33%8/24
55%11/20

Brown

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%2/4
0%0/1
2
33%2/6
82%9/11
3
67%2/3
67%4/6
4
25%1/4
50%1/2
5
100%1/1
0%0/1
6
50%1/2
67%2/3
All
45%9/20
67%16/24

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

183 rallies

#HARV-BROWNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BROWNBROWNKillFisayo Afonja+2.2
20-2BROWNBROWNAceBrownaced Yvette Easton+2.3
31-2BROWNHARVAttack errSarah Shawset Sofia Rossi+1.6
41-3HARVBROWNServe errHarvard+1.8
52-3BROWNHARVServe errBrown+1.6
62-4HARVBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+1.8
72-5BROWNBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+2.5
83-5BROWNHARVKillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+1.6
93-6HARVBROWNKillFisayo Afonjaset Sophie Haskell+1.9
103-7BROWNBROWNAttack errRiley Resmer+2.5
114-7BROWNHARVServe errBrown+1.5
125-7HARVHARVAceHarvardaced Sophie Haskell+2.4
135-8HARVBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+2.0
146-8BROWNHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+1.7
156-9HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+2.0
167-9BROWNHARVKillMasina Ogbechie+1.7
177-10HARVBROWNKillElle Holleyset Julia Kakkis+2.1
187-11BROWNBROWNKillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+2.7
198-11BROWNHARVServe errBrown+1.6
208-12HARVBROWNKillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+2.0
219-12BROWNHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+1.6
2210-12HARVHARVKillAli Farquharset Kayla Nwabueze+2.6
2310-13HARVBROWN×3KillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+2.3
2410-14BROWNBROWN×3KillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+2.9
2510-15BROWNBROWN×3AceBrownaced Sofia Rossi+2.6
2611-15BROWNHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+1.4
2712-15HARVHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Yvette Easton+2.4
2812-16HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+2.2
2913-16BROWNHARVServe errBrown+1.7
3013-17HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+2.3
3114-17BROWNHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+1.7
3214-18HARVBROWNKillSarah Shawset Julia Kakkis+2.3
3315-18BROWNHARV×6KillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+1.7
3416-18HARVHARV×6KillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+3.0
3517-18HARVHARV×6Attack errElle Holley+3.6
3618-18HARVHARV×6BlockedElle Holleyblk Ryleigh Patterson, Ali Farquhar+4.1
3719-18HARVHARV×6KillAli Farquharset Yvette Easton+4.2
3820-18HARVHARV×6KillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+3.9
3920-19HARVBROWNServe errHarvard+2.5
4020-20BROWNBROWNBall handlingKayla Nwabueze+4.6
4121-20BROWNHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+3.6
4222-20HARVHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+4.7
4322-21HARVBROWN×4KillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+2.7
4422-22BROWNBROWN×4AceBrownaced Yvette Easton+5.6
4522-23BROWNBROWN×4KillSophia Wolfson+7.4
4622-24BROWNBROWN×4KillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+7.6
4723-24BROWNHARV×3KillAli Farquharset Kayla Nwabueze+3.0
4824-24HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabueze+9.6
4925-24HARV
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+8.6
5025-25HARVBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+6.1
5126-25BROWNHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+6.1
5227-25HARVHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Yvette Easton+7.8
Set 2
10-1HARVBROWN×3Serve errHarvard+1.3
20-2BROWNBROWN×3KillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+1.9
30-3BROWNBROWN×3KillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+1.9
41-3BROWNHARVServe errBrown+1.3
51-4HARVBROWN×3KillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+1.4
61-5BROWNBROWN×3KillFisayo Afonjaset Sophie Haskell+2.0
71-6BROWNBROWN×3KillFisayo Afonjaset Sophie Haskell+1.9
82-6BROWNHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+1.1
92-7HARVBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+1.4
103-7BROWNHARVKillAli Farquhar+1.1
113-8HARVBROWN×4KillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+1.4
123-9BROWN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
133-10BROWNBROWN×4KillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+1.5
143-11BROWNBROWN×4AceBrownaced Sofia Rossi+1.2
154-11BROWNHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+0.6
165-11HARVHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.1
175-12HARVBROWN×4KillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+1.1
185-13BROWNBROWN×4KillElle Holleyset Julia Kakkis+1.1
195-14BROWNBROWN×4AceBrownaced Kayla Nwabueze+0.8
205-15BROWNBROWN×4KillJulia Kakkis+0.6
216-15BROWNHARVAttack errElle Holleyset Julia Kakkis+0.2
226-16HARVBROWNKillSarah Shaw+0.4
237-16BROWNHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+0.2
247-17HARVBROWNKillSarah Shawset Julia Kakkis+0.3
257-18BROWNBROWNKillFisayo Afonjaset Elle Holley+0.3
268-18BROWNHARVKillAli Farquharset Jordan Shelor+0.1
278-19HARVBROWN×3KillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+0.2
288-20BROWNBROWN×3BlockedAli Farquharblk Sophia Wolfson, Fisayo Afonja+0.1
298-21BROWNBROWN×3Attack errRyleigh Patterson·
309-21BROWNHARVBlockedAlly Panzloffblk Ryleigh Patterson, Kayla Nwabueze·
3110-21HARVHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Jordan Shelor·
3210-22HARVBROWNBad setSophia Wei·
3310-23BROWNBROWNBlockedAli Farquharblk Elle Holley, Sophia Wolfson·
3411-23BROWNHARV×3Serve errBrown·
3512-23HARVHARV×3AceHarvardaced Fisayo Afonja·
3613-23HARV
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
3713-24HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis·
3814-24BROWNHARVKillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao·
3914-25HARVBROWNKillElle Holleyset Julia Kakkis·
Set 3
11-0BROWNHARVServe errBrown+2.1
22-0HARVHARVAceHarvardaced Sophie Haskell+2.8
32-1HARVBROWNServe errHarvard+2.0
43-1BROWNHARVKillAli Farquharset Jordan Shelor+2.0
53-2HARVBROWNBad setRiley Resmer+2.0
63-3BROWNBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+3.1
74-3BROWNHARV×3BlockedJulia Kakkisblk Ali Farquhar, Ally Panzloff+2.2
85-3HARVHARV×3KillSophia Wolfson+3.0
96-3HARVHARV×3Attack errAlly Panzloff+2.7
106-4HARVBROWN×3KillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+1.9
116-5BROWN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.0
126-6BROWNBROWN×3KillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+3.4
137-6BROWNHARV×3KillMasina Ogbechie+2.4
148-6HARVHARV×3AceHarvardaced Fisayo Afonja+3.2
159-6HARVHARV×3KillCatlin Shaoset Fisayo Afonja+2.9
169-7HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+2.0
179-8BROWNBROWNKillSarah Shaw+3.2
1810-8BROWNHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+2.4
1911-8HARVHARVKillSofia Rossiset Riley Resmer+3.1
2011-9HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+2.1
2112-9BROWNHARVKillSofia Rossiset Jordan Shelor+2.3
2212-10HARVBROWN×4KillElle Holleyset Julia Kakkis+2.1
2312-11BROWNBROWN×4KillJulia Kakkisset Elle Holley+3.5
2412-12BROWN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.1
2512-13BROWNBROWN×4KillSarah Shawset Elle Holley+4.6
2613-13BROWNHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+3.1
2714-13HARVHARVKillRyleigh Patterson+4.4
2814-14HARVBROWNServe errHarvard+3.3
2914-15BROWNBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+5.0
3015-15BROWNHARVKillKayla Nwabueze+3.4
3115-16HARVBROWNKillJulia Kakkisset Julia Kakkis+3.8
3216-16BROWNHARVBlockedFisayo Afonjablk Riley Resmer, Ali Farquhar+3.6
3316-17HARVBROWN×3KillAlly Panzloffset Sophie Haskell+4.1
3416-18BROWNBROWN×3BlockedKayla Nwabuezeblk Sophia Wolfson, Ally Panzloff+5.8
3516-19BROWNBROWN×3Attack errKayla Nwabueze+5.5
3617-19BROWNHARVAttack errAlly Panzloffset Sophie Haskell+3.1
3717-20HARVBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+4.2
3818-20BROWNHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+3.1
3918-21HARVBROWNKillElle Holleyset Julia Kakkis+4.5
4019-21BROWNHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+3.1
4119-22HARVBROWNServe errHarvard+4.7
4220-22BROWNHARVBlockedSarah Shawblk Ryleigh Patterson+3.0
4320-23HARVBROWNKillJulia Kakkisset Sarah Shaw+4.9
4421-23BROWNHARV×3KillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+2.6
4522-23HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+6.4
4623-23HARVHARV×3Attack errFisayo Afonja+10.0
4723-24HARVBROWNKillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+9.7
4823-25BROWNBROWNAttack errKayla Nwabueze+14.7
Set 4
11-0HARVHARVAttack errSarah Shaw+3.7
21-1HARVBROWN×5KillJulia Kakkisset Fisayo Afonja+2.7
31-2BROWNBROWN×5AceBrownaced Jordan Shelor+4.1
41-3BROWNBROWN×5BlockedSofia Rossiblk Julia Kakkis, Sophia Wolfson+4.3
51-4BROWNBROWN×5AceBrown+4.4
61-5BROWNBROWN×5AceBrown+4.3
72-5BROWNHARV×4KillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+2.7
83-5HARVHARV×4KillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+4.1
94-5HARVHARV×4Attack errSophia Wolfson+4.2
105-5HARVHARV×4BlockedFisayo Afonjablk Ali Farquhar, Ryleigh Patterson+4.3
115-6HARVBROWN×5Serve errHarvard+3.3
125-7BROWNBROWN×5Attack errAli Farquhar+4.7
135-8BROWNBROWN×5KillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+4.8
145-9BROWNBROWN×5BlockedAli Farquharblk Fisayo Afonja, Sophia Wolfson+4.7
155-10BROWNBROWN×5KillFisayo Afonja+4.3
166-10BROWNHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+2.5
176-11HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+3.2
187-11BROWNHARV×4KillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+2.5
198-11HARVHARV×4KillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+4.1
209-11HARVHARV×4KillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+4.6
2110-11HARVHARV×4Attack errElle Holley+5.0
2210-12HARVBROWNKillAlly Panzloffset Julia Kakkis+4.1
2311-12BROWNHARVBlockedElle Holleyblk Catlin Shao+3.6
2411-13HARVBROWN×3Serve errHarvard+4.2
2511-14BROWNBROWN×3AceBrownaced Sofia Rossi+5.7
2611-15BROWNBROWN×3AceBrownaced Sofia Rossi+5.3
2712-15BROWNHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+3.0
2813-15HARVHARVAceHarvardaced Elle Holley+5.0
2913-16HARVBROWNKillElle Holleyset Julia Kakkis+4.5
3014-16BROWNHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+3.7
3115-16HARVHARVAttack errElle Holley+5.9
3215-17HARVBROWN×6KillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+5.1
3315-18BROWNBROWN×6KillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+6.7
3415-19BROWNBROWN×6Ball handlingRyleigh Patterson+5.8
3515-20BROWNBROWN×6KillFisayo Afonjaset Julia Kakkis+4.4
3615-21BROWNBROWN×6AceBrownaced Yvette Easton+2.9
3715-22BROWNBROWN×6Attack errSofia Rossi+1.6
3816-22BROWNHARVServe errBrown+0.4
3917-22HARVHARVAttack errFisayo Afonja+1.1
4017-23HARVBROWNServe errHarvard+1.5
4118-23BROWNHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+0.5
4219-23HARVHARVBlockedAlly Panzloffblk Ali Farquhar, Riley Resmer+1.3
4319-24HARVBROWNKillSophia Wolfsonset Julia Kakkis+2.0
4419-25BROWNBROWNKillElle Holleyset Sophie Haskell+0.7

Score shown after each rally, Harvard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).