FinalWed, Sep 9, 2026

AwayACC

0:3

HomeSEC

Kentucky def. North Carolina 3–0

(25-11, 25-19, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNC	11	19	18	0
UK	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UK above 50 · UNC below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to North Carolina — set 2, UNC 16-16 UK. Asia Thigpen stuffed by Jackie Taylor & Laynie Smith. UK win probability 96% → 95%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNC 7.8%92.2% UK

North Carolina wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.3%

3-2

4.5%

Kentucky wins

3-0

48.6%

3-1

31.2%

3-2

12.4%

UNC break %: 34.6% vs this opp
UK break %: 45.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Asia ThigpenAttack error+1.1%
Asia Thigpen stuffed by Jackie Taylor & Laynie Smith
Set 2 · UNC 16-16 UK · UNC 4% → 5%
02
Bridget MaloneKill+1.1%
Kill by Bridget Malone (set by Sienna Cozza)
Set 2 · UNC 13-12 UK · UNC 4% → 6%
03
Brooklyn DeLeyeKill+1.1%
Kill by Brooklyn DeLeye (set by Kassie O'Brien)
Set 2 · UNC 17-19 UK · UK 96% → 97%
04
Kennedy WashingtonKill+1.0%
Kill by Kennedy Washington (set by Kassie O'Brien)
Set 2 · UNC 13-14 UK · UK 95% → 96%
05
UNC serverAce+0.9%
North Carolina ace on Brooklyn DeLeye
Set 2 · UNC 12-12 UK · UNC 4% → 4%
06
Asia ThigpenKill+0.9%
Kill by Asia Thigpen (set by Kassie O'Brien)
Set 2 · UNC 14-16 UK · UK 96% → 97%
07
UK serverService error+0.8%
Kentucky service error
Set 2 · UNC 17-17 UK · UNC 4% → 5%
08
Lizzie CarrKill+0.8%
Kill by Lizzie Carr
Set 2 · UNC 17-20 UK · UK 97% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

North Carolinaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Bridget MaloneOH	3	7	4	23	.130	0	0	1	6	2	2	1	8
22Safi HamptonOH	3	7	5	26	.077	0	0	0	7	0	1	0.5	7.5
77Chelsea ThorpeOPP	3	4	1	17	.176	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Jackie TaylorMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	4	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
3Lauren SchutterMB	3	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
1Zoe BehrendtS	3	0	0	0	–	10	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
23Laynie SmithOPP	3	4	1	13	.231	0	0	0	4	0	2	1	5
8Sienna CozzaS	3	1	0	1	1.000	10	1	2	4	0	0	0	2
18Carly MarkhamL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
6Julia BohlingerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	12	1	0	0	0
Team totals		27	13	92	.152	23	1	9	36	4	12	6	48

Kentuckyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Morgan GaerteOH	3	17	4	34	.382	0	0	2	11	0	0	0	0	17
17Brooklyn DeLeyeOH	3	15	5	32	.313	0	1	1	8	1	0	1	0.5	16.5
15Lizzie CarrMB	3	8	3	15	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
10Kennedy WashingtonMB	3	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	7
6Kassie O'BrienS	3	0	0	6	.000	44	1	0	5	0	0	2	1	2
1Trinity WardL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
20Asia ThigpenOH	3	4	3	17	.059	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
27Brynn CovellS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
12Molly TuozzoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	16	116	.284	45	4	4	47	1	1	6	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 UNC · UK 6

Set 1

11-25

Longest run 2 UNCUK 6

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 UNCUK 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 UNCUK 5

Bars above the line = Kentucky leads, below = North Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

North Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	25%2/8
2	60%6/10	13%1/8
3	50%6/12	50%6/12
4	43%6/14	14%1/7
5	36%5/14	33%3/9
6	33%4/12	17%1/6
All	47%34/73	28%14/50

Kentucky

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	50%5/10
2	60%6/10	50%6/12
3	75%6/8	33%3/9
4	75%6/8	50%6/12
5	75%6/8	50%6/12
6	83%5/6	72%13/18
All	72%36/50	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	UNC-UK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UNC	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
2	0-2	UK	UK	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.8
3	1-2	UK	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.5
4	1-3	UNC	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
5	2-3	UK	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.6
6	2-4	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
7	3-4	UK	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.6
8	3-5	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
9	4-5	UK	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.6
10	4-6	UNC	UK	Kill	Asia Thigpen	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
11	5-6	UK	UNC	Kill	Sienna Cozza	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.6
12	5-7	UNC	UK×3	Serve err	UNC server		+0.6
13	5-8	UK	UK×3	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.8
14	5-9	UK	UK×3	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
15	6-9	UK	UNC	Attack err	Brooklyn DeLeye	blk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith	+0.4
16	6-10	UNC	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
17	6-11	UK	UK	Ace	UK server	aced Carly Markham	+0.5
18	7-11	UK	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
19	7-12	UNC	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
20	7-13	UK	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
21	8-13	UK	UNC	Serve err	UK server		+0.2
22	9-13	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Lizzie Carr		+0.4
23	9-14	UNC	UK×4	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
24	9-15	UK	UK×4	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe		+0.3
25	9-16	UK	UK×4	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.2
26	9-17	UK	UK×4	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
27	10-17	UK	UNC	Attack err	Asia Thigpen		+0.0
28	10-18	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
29	10-19	UK	UK	Attack err	Bridget Malone		+0.0
30	11-19	UK	UNC	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte		+0.0
31	11-20	UNC	UK×6	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.0
32	11-21	UK	UK×6	Attack err	Safi Hampton	blk Kassie O'Brien, Kennedy Washington	+0.0
33	11-22	UK	UK×6	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.0
34	11-23	UK	UK×6	Kill	Kennedy Washington		+0.0
35	11-24	UK	UK×6	Attack err	Safi Hampton	blk Kassie O'Brien, Kennedy Washington	+0.0
36	11-25	UK	UK×6	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UK	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.5
2	1-1	UNC	UK×4	Serve err	UNC server		+0.4
3	1-2	UK	UK×4	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.6
4	1-3	UK	UK×4	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
5	1-4	UK	UK×4	Ace	UK server	aced Julia Bohlinger	+0.4
6	2-4	UK	UNC×3	Attack err	Lizzie Carr		+0.3
7	3-4	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Brooklyn DeLeye		+0.5
8	4-4	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.7
9	4-5	UNC	UK	Serve err	UNC server		+0.4
10	4-6	UK	UK	Attack err	Lauren Schutter		+0.6
11	5-6	UK	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Sienna Cozza	+0.4
12	5-7	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
13	5-8	UK	UK	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
14	6-8	UK	UNC	Serve err	UK server		+0.3
15	6-9	UNC	UK	Serve err	UNC server		+0.3
16	7-9	UK	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Sienna Cozza	+0.3
17	7-10	UNC	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
18	8-10	UK	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
19	8-11	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
20	9-11	UK	UNC	Attack err	Lizzie Carr		+0.4
21	10-11	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Brooklyn DeLeye	blk Bridget Malone, Lauren Schutter	+0.7
22	10-12	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
23	11-12	UK	UNC×3	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.5
24	12-12	UNC	UNC×3	Ace	UNC server	aced Brooklyn DeLeye	+0.9
25	13-12	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Sienna Cozza	+1.1
26	13-13	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.7
27	13-14	UK	UK	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	+1.0
28	14-14	UK	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.7
29	14-15	UNC	UK	Attack err	Bridget Malone	blk Kennedy Washington	+0.7
30	14-16	UK	UK	Kill	Asia Thigpen	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.9
31	15-16	UK	UNC	Serve err	UK server		+0.6
32	16-16	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Asia Thigpen	blk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith	+1.1
33	16-17	UNC	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.8
34	17-17	UK	UNC	Serve err	UK server		+0.8
35	17-18	UNC	UK×5	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.8
36	17-19	UK	UK×5	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+1.1
37	17-20	UK	UK×5	Kill	Lizzie Carr		+0.8
38	17-21	UK	UK×5	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.5
39	17-22	UK	UK×5	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
40	18-22	UK	UNC	Attack err	Brooklyn DeLeye	blk Jackie Taylor, Safi Hampton	+0.1
41	18-23	UNC	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Jackie Taylor	+0.1
42	18-24	UK	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Trinity Ward	+0.1
43	19-24	UK	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
44	19-25	UNC	UK	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton		+0.3
2	2-0	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Molly Tuozzo	+0.4
3	2-1	UNC	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.2
4	2-2	UK	UK	Attack err	Jackie Taylor	blk Lizzie Carr, Brooklyn DeLeye	+0.3
5	3-2	UK	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
6	3-3	UNC	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.2
7	4-3	UK	UNC	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte		+0.3
8	5-3	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Asia Thigpen	blk Chelsea Thorpe, Lauren Schutter	+0.4
9	5-4	UNC	UK	Serve err	UNC server		+0.2
10	6-4	UK	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
11	6-5	UNC	UK×4	Serve err	UNC server		+0.3
12	6-6	UK	UK×4	Attack err	Laynie Smith		+0.4
13	6-7	UK	UK×4	Attack err	Bridget Malone		+0.3
14	6-8	UK	UK×4	Kill	Asia Thigpen	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
15	7-8	UK	UNC×3	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
16	8-8	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte		+0.4
17	9-8	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.4
18	9-9	UNC	UK	Serve err	UNC server		+0.3
19	10-9	UK	UNC	Attack err	Kennedy Washington		+0.3
20	11-9	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.5
21	11-10	UNC	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
22	11-11	UK	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
23	12-11	UK	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.4
24	12-12	UNC	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
25	13-12	UK	UNC	Attack err	Brooklyn DeLeye		+0.4
26	13-13	UNC	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
27	14-13	UK	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.4
28	14-14	UNC	UK	Serve err	UNC server		+0.3
29	14-15	UK	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
30	15-15	UK	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.4
31	16-15	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte	blk Bridget Malone, Lauren Schutter	+0.6
32	16-16	UNC	UK×3	Kill	Asia Thigpen	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
33	16-17	UK	UK×3	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
34	16-18	UK	UK×3	Attack err	Bridget Malone		+0.5
35	17-18	UK	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Sienna Cozza	+0.3
36	17-19	UNC	UK×5	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
37	17-20	UK	UK×5	Ace	UK server	aced Bridget Malone	+0.4
38	17-21	UK	UK×5	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.3
39	17-22	UK	UK×5	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
40	17-23	UK	UK×5	Ace	UK server	aced Bridget Malone	+0.1
41	18-23	UK	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
42	18-24	UNC	UK	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.0
43	18-25	UK	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, North Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.