FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026Watch on ABC

Texas A&M def. Kentucky 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Kentucky 84.3% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 25, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Texas A&M won at Kentucky 3-0 (25-20, 25-23, 25-21) on Sun, Oct 25, 2026. Texas A&M's Kyndal Stowers led with 16 kills, and Gabi Rodriguez added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 25

Set123Sets
TX A&M2525253
UK2023210

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Texas A&M beat Kentucky from a 16% pre-match call.

The match turned twice; each line shows Texas A&M's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Kentucky at 84% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Texas A&M 10–11 Kentucky

    Texas A&M scored 4 straight to turn a 10–11 deficit into a 14–11 lead.

    Texas A&M 33% → 49%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Texas A&M 22–21 Kentucky

    Up 22–21, Texas A&M scored 3 straight to make it 25–21.

    Texas A&M 82% → >99%

Kentucky above 50Texas A&M belowMax swing 10.4%

Texas A&MKentucky

Sideout %
Texas A&M 70.8·Kentucky 60.8
Break %
Texas A&M 39.2·Kentucky 29.2
Hitting
Texas A&M .229·Kentucky .163
Longest run
Texas A&M 4·Kentucky 4

Kaia Castle
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 7 K, .462, 8.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Kentucky above 50 · Texas A&M below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+10.4% TX A&Mrally 139 · set 3

Biggest swing: 10.4% to Texas A&M — set 2, TX A&M 25-23 UK. Kill by Natalie Ring (set by Margot Manning). UK win probability 44% → 34%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TX A&M 17.2%82.8% UK

Texas A&M wins

3-0
2.7%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
8.9%

Kentucky wins

3-0
34.5%
3-1
30.9%
3-2
17.4%
TX A&M break %
35.7% vs this opp
UK break %
42.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Natalie RingKill+10.4%

    Kill by Natalie Ring (set by Margot Manning)

    Set 2 · TX A&M 25-23 UK · TX A&M 56% → 66%

  2. 02

    Kennedy Washington stuffed by Eliza Sharp & Natalie Ring

    Set 3 · TX A&M 24-21 UK · TX A&M 89% → 97%

  3. 03
    Natalie RingKill+7.5%

    Kill by Natalie Ring (set by Margot Manning)

    Set 2 · TX A&M 24-22 UK · TX A&M 52% → 59%

  4. 04
    Natalie RingKill+6.7%

    Kill by Natalie Ring (set by Kyndal Stowers)

    Set 3 · TX A&M 23-21 UK · TX A&M 82% → 89%

  5. 05

    Kill by Brooklyn DeLeye (set by Kassie O'Brien)

    Set 3 · TX A&M 22-21 UK · UK 11% → 18%

  6. 06

    Natalie Ring stuffed by Kennedy Washington & Kassie O'Brien

    Set 2 · TX A&M 23-22 UK · UK 42% → 48%

  7. 07

    Georgia Watson stuffed by Eliza Sharp & Taryn Morris

    Set 2 · TX A&M 17-14 UK · TX A&M 46% → 52%

  8. 08
    Kaia CastleKill+5.0%

    Kill by Kaia Castle (set by Margot Manning)

    Set 2 · TX A&M 21-17 UK · TX A&M 55% → 60%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
316535.31431310100017
312533.21200310031.513.5
36217.2350000016410
37113.46200000031.58.5
3103.333360170010.51.5
3011-1.000002300000
33416-.06300020052.55.5
3000–1111200001
3000–000600000
3000–000000000
Team totals4518118.229402104111181075
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314234.3530034002115
39322.273002130073.512.5
36014.429000000639
35211.273000000638
31412-.25000060010.51.5
3025-.4003101200211
3000–3111100001
3000–000000000
3000–101120000
2056-.833001000000
2000–000100000
Team totals3518104.16335193820241264

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 TX A&M · UK 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 TX A&MUK 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 TX A&MUK 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 3 TX A&MUK 2

Bars above the line = Kentucky leads, below = Texas A&M leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Texas A&M

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
42%5/12
2
73%8/11
27%3/11
3
73%8/11
43%6/14
4
73%8/11
38%5/13
5
67%8/12
27%3/11
6
86%6/7
54%7/13
All
71%46/65
39%29/74

Kentucky

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
22%2/9
2
73%8/11
43%6/14
3
67%8/12
11%1/9
4
62%8/13
38%5/13
5
78%7/9
27%3/11
6
46%6/13
22%2/9
All
61%45/74
29%19/65

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

139 rallies

#TX A&M-UKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0TX A&MTX A&M×3KillMargot Manning+1.7
22-0TX A&MTX A&M×3KillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+1.9
33-0TX A&MTX A&M×3KillEliza Sharpset Margot Manning+2.0
43-1TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+1.2
54-1UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+1.4
64-2TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+1.2
75-2UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+1.4
86-2TX A&MTX A&MAttack errBrooklyn DeLeye+2.1
96-3TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.2
107-3UKTX A&M×4KillTaryn Morrisset Margot Manning+1.5
118-3TX A&MTX A&M×4KillKaia Castleset Margot Manning+2.1
129-3TX A&MTX A&M×4AceTexas A&Maced Trinity Ward+2.0
1310-3TX A&MTX A&M×4KillKaia Castleset Margot Manning+1.8
1410-4TX A&MUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+0.8
1511-4UKTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Margot Manning+1.2
1611-5TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+0.8
1711-6UKUKAceMolly Tuozzoaced Kyndal Stowers+1.5
1812-6UKTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Kyndal Stowers+1.4
1912-7TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+1.0
2012-8UKUKBlockedEliza Sharpblk Kennedy Washington, Asia Thigpen+1.8
2113-8UKTX A&M×3Attack errAsia Thigpen+1.6
2214-8TX A&MTX A&M×3KillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+2.0
2315-8TX A&MTX A&M×3KillEliza Sharpset Margot Manning+1.6
2415-9TX A&MUK×4KillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+0.7
2515-10UKUK×4KillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+1.4
2615-11UKUK×4KillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Molly Tuozzo+1.7
2715-12UKUK×4KillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+2.1
2816-12UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+1.9
2916-13TX A&MUKAttack errMegan Fitch+1.3
3017-13UKTX A&M×3KillKaia Castleset Margot Manning+1.9
3118-13TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errBrooklyn DeLeye+2.4
3219-13TX A&MTX A&M×3KillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+1.8
3319-14TX A&MUK×4Serve errTexas A&M+0.7
3419-15UKUK×4Attack errKaia Castle+1.5
3519-16UKUK×4KillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+2.0
3619-17UKUK×4BlockedTaryn Morrisblk Morgan Gaerte, Lizzie Carr+2.6
3720-17UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+2.5
3821-17TX A&MTX A&MAttack errMorgan Gaerte+3.0
3921-18TX A&MUKBlockedNatalie Ringblk Brooklyn DeLeye, Lizzie Carr+1.1
4022-18UKTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Margot Manning+2.0
4122-19TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.0
4223-19UKTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Margot Manning+1.9
4324-19TX A&MTX A&MBad setKassie O'Brien+1.4
4424-20TX A&MUKKillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+0.2
4525-20UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+0.5
Set 2
10-1UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+2.5
21-1UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+1.7
32-1TX A&MTX A&MAceTexas A&Maced Trinity Ward+2.9
42-2TX A&MUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+1.8
53-2UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+2.0
63-3TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+1.9
74-3UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+2.1
85-3TX A&MTX A&MKillNatalie Ring+3.4
95-4TX A&MUKBlockedNatalie Ringblk Kennedy Washington, Morgan Gaerte+2.0
106-4UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+2.4
116-5TX A&MUK×3KillAsia Thigpenset Molly Tuozzo+2.1
126-6UKUK×3KillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+3.2
136-7UKUK×3BlockedTaryn Morrisblk Kennedy Washington, Brooklyn DeLeye+3.0
147-7UKTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Margot Manning+2.1
157-8TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+2.0
168-8UKTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Margot Manning+2.2
178-9TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+2.0
189-9UKTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Margot Manning+2.2
1910-9TX A&MTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+3.8
2010-10TX A&MUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+2.3
2110-11UKUKAttack errKyndal Stowers+3.4
2211-11UKTX A&M×4KillKaia Castleset Margot Manning+2.4
2312-11TX A&MTX A&M×4BlockedAsia Thigpenblk Taryn Morris, Kaia Castle+4.1
2413-11TX A&MTX A&M×4KillKaia Castleset Margot Manning+4.5
2514-11TX A&MTX A&M×4BlockedAsia Thigpenblk Kaia Castle, Taryn Morris+4.6
2614-12TX A&MUKBlockedKyndal Stowersblk Lizzie Carr, Morgan Gaerte+2.5
2715-12UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+3.3
2815-13TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+2.6
2915-14UKUKAttack errTaryn Morris+4.4
3016-14UKTX A&MBlockedGeorgia Watsonblk Kaia Castle, Taryn Morris+3.5
3117-14TX A&MTX A&MBlockedGeorgia Watsonblk Eliza Sharp, Taryn Morris+5.2
3217-15TX A&MUKKillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+2.7
3318-15UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+3.7
3418-16TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Trinity Ward+2.8
3519-16UKTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Gabi Rodriguez+3.9
3619-17TX A&MUKAttack errEliza Sharp+2.8
3720-17UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+4.1
3821-17TX A&MTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Margot Manning+5.0
3921-18TX A&MUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+1.9
4021-19UKUKBlockedKyndal Stowersblk Morgan Gaerte, Lizzie Carr+4.4
4122-19UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+4.6
4222-20TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+2.7
4323-20UKTX A&MAttack errMorgan Gaerte+4.8
4423-21TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+2.4
4523-22UKUKBlockedNatalie Ringblk Kennedy Washington, Kassie O'Brien+6.4
4624-22UKTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Margot Manning+7.5
4724-23TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+3.8
4825-23UKTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Margot Manning+10.4
Set 3
10-1TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+1.7
21-1UKTX A&MBlockedKassie O'Brienblk Eliza Sharp+1.9
31-2TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+1.7
42-2UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+1.9
52-3TX A&MUKAttack errTaryn Morris+1.8
63-3UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Gabi Rodriguez+2.0
73-4TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+1.9
84-4UKTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Margot Manning+2.0
94-5TX A&MUKBlockedNatalie Ringblk Morgan Gaerte, Kennedy Washington+1.9
105-5UKTX A&M×3Attack errGeorgia Watson+2.1
116-5TX A&MTX A&M×3KillNatalie Ringset Margot Manning+3.5
127-5TX A&MTX A&M×3BlockedMorgan Gaerteblk Eliza Sharp, Natalie Ring+3.8
137-6TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+2.3
148-6UKTX A&MAttack errKassie O'Brien+2.7
158-7TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Molly Tuozzo+2.4
169-7UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+2.8
179-8TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+2.4
1810-8UKTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Margot Manning+2.9
1910-9TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+2.5
2011-9UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+3.0
2111-10TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+2.6
2212-10UKTX A&M×3KillNatalie Ringset Margot Manning+3.1
2313-10TX A&MTX A&M×3KillNatalie Ringset Kyndal Stowers+4.8
2414-10TX A&MTX A&M×3BlockedGeorgia Watsonblk Eliza Sharp, Taryn Morris+4.6
2514-11TX A&MUKBlockedNatalie Ringblk Kennedy Washington, Morgan Gaerte+2.4
2615-11UKTX A&M×3KillEliza Sharpset Margot Manning+3.2
2716-11TX A&MTX A&M×3BlockedKennedy Washingtonblk Natalie Ring, Eliza Sharp+4.2
2817-11TX A&MTX A&M×3BlockedGeorgia Watsonblk Margot Manning, Eliza Sharp+3.4
2917-12TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+1.4
3018-12UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+2.3
3118-13TX A&MUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.3
3218-14UKUKBlockedKyndal Stowersblk Lizzie Carr, Kassie O'Brien+2.8
3319-14UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+2.8
3419-15TX A&MUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+1.7
3519-16UKUKBlockedKyndal Stowersblk Lizzie Carr, Morgan Gaerte+3.6
3620-16UKTX A&MKillKyndal Stowersset Margot Manning+3.6
3720-17TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+2.2
3821-17UKTX A&MServe errKentucky+3.6
3921-18TX A&MUKServe errTexas A&M+2.0
4021-19UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+4.7
4122-19UKTX A&MAttack errAsia Thigpen+4.9
4222-20TX A&MUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+2.9
4322-21UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+6.6
4423-21UKTX A&M×3KillNatalie Ringset Kyndal Stowers+6.7
4524-21TX A&MTX A&M×3BlockedKennedy Washingtonblk Eliza Sharp, Natalie Ring+7.7
4625-21TX A&MTX A&M×3KillEliza Sharpset Margot Manning+3.1

Score shown after each rally, Texas A&M first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).