Missouri vs Kentucky Volleyball: Kentucky Wins 3-0 (Oct 30)

FinalFri, Oct 30, 2026SECN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Kentucky 93.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Kentucky beat visiting Missouri 3-0 (25-16, 29-27, 25-17) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Kentucky's Morgan Gaerte led with 19 kills, and Molly Tuozzo added 14 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 10:40 PM CT · final Oct 30

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MIZZOU	16	27	17	0
UK	25	29	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Morgan Gaerte needed just 3 sets for 19 kills. Kentucky swept Missouri.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.4 points. Missouri peaked at 10% in Set 2. These are the stats that built the gap. Kentucky went in as RallyIQ's 94% pick.

MissouriKentucky

Break %+17.4 pts
24.241.6
32 of 77 on serve vs 15 of 62, so Missouri's sideout was 58.4%.
Hitting+.159
.168.327
54 kills, 17 errors vs 29 kills, 13 errors.
Longest run+4
37
Up 16–14 in the first set, Kentucky scored 7 straight to make it 23–14. Final score of the set: 25–16.

Kentucky above 50Missouri belowMax swing 3.4%

MissouriKentucky

Aces: Missouri 0·Kentucky 5
Serve err: Missouri 7·Kentucky 14
Blocks: Missouri 6·Kentucky 31 BS · 10 BA vs 0 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Missouri 32·Kentucky 47

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Kentucky above 50 · Missouri below

Biggest swing: 3.4% to Kentucky — set 2, MIZZOU 24-24 UK. Kill by Brooklyn DeLeye (set by Kassie O'Brien). UK win probability 91% → 95%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MIZZOU 6.9%93.1% UK

Missouri wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

2.0%

3-2

4.0%

Kentucky wins

3-0

50.6%

3-1

30.8%

3-2

11.7%

MIZZOU break %: 34.5% vs this opp
UK break %: 45.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Brooklyn DeLeyeKill+3.4%
Kill by Brooklyn DeLeye (set by Kassie O'Brien)
Set 2 · MIZZOU 24-24 UK · UK 91% → 95%
02
Paige FelderAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Paige Felder
Set 2 · MIZZOU 25-26 UK · UK 95% → 97%
03
Lydia StahleyKill+2.2%
Kill by Lydia Stahley (set by Sierra Dudley)
Set 2 · MIZZOU 25-24 UK · MIZZOU 5% → 8%
04
MissouriService error+2.2%
Missouri service error
Set 2 · MIZZOU 25-25 UK · UK 92% → 95%
05
Lydia StahleyKill+2.1%
Kill by Lydia Stahley (set by Sierra Dudley)
Set 2 · MIZZOU 24-22 UK · MIZZOU 8% → 10%
06
KentuckyAce+1.9%
Kentucky ace on Lydia Stahley
Set 2 · MIZZOU 27-29 UK · UK 97% → 99%
07
Morgan GaerteAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Morgan Gaerte
Set 2 · MIZZOU 23-21 UK · MIZZOU 7% → 9%
08
KentuckyService error+1.7%
Kentucky service error
Set 2 · MIZZOU 26-26 UK · MIZZOU 3% → 5%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Missouriaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Lydia StahleyOH	3	7	3	23	.174	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
15Paige FelderOH	3	6	3	19	.158	0	1	3	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
7Kimani JohnsonOH	3	5	4	19	.053	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
12Lauren LarkinMB	3	3	0	9	.333	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
11Eva SmithMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
0Nina MandovicS	3	0	0	0	–	14	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
40Grace O'ReillyOH	3	5	2	16	.188	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Sierra DudleyS	3	0	0	1	.000	12	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Zoey MatiasL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
4Ainoah CruzDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	14	1	0	0	0	0
8Ceylin KuyanOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Maizy AgnelloOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	13	95	.168	28	7	32	5	1	10	6	60

Kentuckyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BA	BLK	PTS
18Morgan GaerteOH	3	19	5	40	.350	0	0	3	7	0	0	19
17Brooklyn DeLeyeOH	3	16	5	32	.344	1	3	5	8	0	0	19
15Lizzie CarrMB	3	6	2	11	.364	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
10Kennedy WashingtonMB	3	4	1	8	.375	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Kassie O'BrienS	3	2	0	3	.667	43	0	1	7	2	1	3
24Sidney BurleyDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	4	0	0	0
9Georgia WatsonOH	3	7	4	19	.158	0	0	0	3	1	0.5	7.5
11Molly BerezowitzDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	4	0	0	2
12Molly TuozzoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	14	0	0	0
1Trinity WardL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		54	17	113	.327	50	5	14	47	6	3	79

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 MIZZOU · UK 7

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 MIZZOUUK 7

Set 2

27-29

Longest run 3 MIZZOUUK 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 MIZZOUUK 5

Bars above the line = Kentucky leads, below = Missouri leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Missouri

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	0%0/6
2	70%7/10	30%3/10
3	83%5/6	13%1/8
4	71%5/7	38%3/8
5	83%5/6	29%2/7
6	71%5/7	0%0/5
All	64%34/53	20%9/44

Kentucky

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	40%4/10
2	78%7/9	56%9/16
3	75%6/8	25%2/8
4	63%5/8	17%1/6
5	100%5/5	29%2/7
6	100%5/5	17%1/6
All	80%35/44	36%19/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

139 rallies

#	MIZZOU-UK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MIZZOU	UK	Serve err	Missouri		+0.5
2	0-2	UK	UK	Blocked	Kimani Johnson	blk Lizzie Carr, Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
3	1-2	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+0.5
4	1-3	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
5	2-3	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+0.5
6	2-4	MIZZOU	UK	Serve err	Missouri		+0.4
7	3-4	UK	MIZZOU	Attack err	Georgia Watson		+0.5
8	3-5	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
9	4-5	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+0.5
10	4-6	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
11	5-6	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+0.5
12	5-7	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Molly Tuozzo	+0.5
13	5-8	UK	UK	Attack err	Eva Smith		+0.6
14	6-8	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+0.4
15	6-9	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
16	7-9	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+0.4
17	8-9	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Blocked	Brooklyn DeLeye	blk Kimani Johnson, Eva Smith	+0.8
18	8-10	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
19	8-11	UK	UK	Kill	Georgia Watson	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.7
20	9-11	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+0.5
21	9-12	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
22	10-12	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Nina Mandovic	+0.5
23	11-12	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.9
24	11-13	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
25	11-14	UK	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.8
26	12-14	UK	MIZZOU	Attack err	Georgia Watson		+0.5
27	12-15	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
28	13-15	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.5
29	13-16	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
30	14-16	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+0.6
31	14-17	MIZZOU	UK×7	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.6
32	14-18	UK	UK×7	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.7
33	14-19	UK	UK×7	Ace	Kentucky	aced Paige Felder	+0.4
34	14-20	UK	UK×7	Ace	Kentucky	aced Ainoah Cruz	+0.2
35	14-21	UK	UK×7	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
36	14-22	UK	UK×7	Attack err	Lydia Stahley		·
37	14-23	UK	UK×7	Attack err	Kimani Johnson		·
38	15-23	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Nina Mandovic	·
39	15-24	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	·
40	16-24	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Ainoah Cruz	·
41	16-25	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	·
Set 2
1	1-0	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Nina Mandovic	+0.4
2	1-1	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
3	2-1	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+0.4
4	2-2	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Georgia Watson	set Molly Tuozzo	+0.4
5	3-2	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+0.4
6	3-3	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
7	3-4	UK	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
8	4-4	UK	MIZZOU×3	Blocked	Morgan Gaerte	blk Lauren Larkin, Grace O'Reilly	+0.4
9	5-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte		+0.7
10	6-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Blocked	Kennedy Washington	blk Lydia Stahley, Eva Smith	+0.8
11	6-5	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Molly Tuozzo	+0.5
12	6-6	UK	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Molly Tuozzo	+0.7
13	7-6	UK	MIZZOU	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte		+0.5
14	7-7	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.4
15	8-7	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+0.5
16	8-8	MIZZOU	UK×3	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.5
17	8-9	UK	UK×3	Attack err	Kimani Johnson		+0.7
18	8-10	UK	UK×3	Kill	Kassie O'Brien	set Nina Mandovic	+0.6
19	9-10	UK	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+0.4
20	10-10	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+0.7
21	11-10	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Brooklyn DeLeye		+0.9
22	11-11	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Molly Tuozzo	+0.5
23	11-12	UK	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.8
24	12-12	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+0.6
25	13-12	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Lizzie Carr		+1.0
26	13-13	MIZZOU	UK	Serve err	Missouri		+0.6
27	14-13	UK	MIZZOU×3	Serve err	Kentucky		+0.7
28	15-13	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+1.2
29	16-13	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+1.3
30	16-14	MIZZOU	UK	Serve err	Missouri		+0.7
31	17-14	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'Reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.9
32	17-15	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.7
33	18-15	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+1.0
34	18-16	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.7
35	19-16	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+1.1
36	19-17	MIZZOU	UK	Serve err	Missouri		+0.7
37	20-17	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Nina Mandovic	+1.1
38	20-18	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.7
39	20-19	UK	UK	Blocked	Paige Felder	blk Lizzie Carr, Georgia Watson	+1.4
40	21-19	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Nina Mandovic	+1.3
41	21-20	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+1.0
42	22-20	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+1.5
43	22-21	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Georgia Watson	set Kassie O'Brien	+1.0
44	23-21	UK	MIZZOU	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte		+1.7
45	23-22	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+1.1
46	24-22	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+2.1
47	24-23	MIZZOU	UK	Blocked	Lydia Stahley	blk Kennedy Washington, Kassie O'Brien	+1.0
48	24-24	UK	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+3.4
49	25-24	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	+2.2
50	25-25	MIZZOU	UK	Serve err	Missouri		+2.2
51	25-26	UK	UK	Attack err	Paige Felder		+2.6
52	26-26	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		+1.7
53	26-27	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+1.7
54	27-27	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Sierra Dudley	+1.7
55	27-28	MIZZOU	UK	Serve err	Missouri		+1.7
56	27-29	UK	UK	Ace	Kentucky	aced Lydia Stahley	+1.9
Set 3
1	0-1	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
2	1-1	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+0.2
3	1-2	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.2
4	2-2	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	+0.2
5	2-3	MIZZOU	UK×3	Kill	Georgia Watson	set Paige Felder	+0.2
6	2-4	UK	UK×3	Ace	Kentucky		+0.2
7	2-5	UK	UK×3	Kill	Morgan Gaerte		+0.2
8	3-5		MIZZOU	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.1
9	4-5	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Blocked	Lizzie Carr	blk Lauren Larkin	+0.2
10	4-6	MIZZOU	UK×5	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Brooklyn DeLeye	+0.1
11	4-7	UK	UK×5	Attack err	Grace O'Reilly		+0.2
12	4-8	UK	UK×5	Kill	Georgia Watson	set Molly Tuozzo	+0.1
13	4-9	UK	UK×5	Attack err	Lydia Stahley		+0.1
14	4-10	UK	UK×5	Kill	Georgia Watson	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
15	5-10	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Sierra Dudley	·
16	5-11	MIZZOU	UK×5	Kill	Georgia Watson	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
17	5-12	UK	UK×5	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	+0.1
18	5-13	UK	UK×5	Attack err	Paige Felder		·
19	5-14	UK	UK×5	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	·
20	5-15	UK	UK×5	Attack err	Grace O'Reilly		·
21	6-15	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		·
22	6-16	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	·
23	7-16	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		·
24	7-17	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Brooklyn DeLeye	set Kassie O'Brien	·
25	7-18	UK	UK	Kill	Kassie O'Brien	set Nina Mandovic	·
26	8-18	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Nina Mandovic	·
27	9-18	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Blocked	Brooklyn DeLeye	blk Kimani Johnson, Lauren Larkin	·
28	9-19	MIZZOU	UK	Attack err	Kimani Johnson		·
29	10-19	UK	MIZZOU	Attack err	Brooklyn DeLeye		·
30	11-19	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Blocked	Brooklyn DeLeye	blk Lauren Larkin, Paige Felder	·
31	11-20	MIZZOU	UK×3	Kill	Lizzie Carr	set Kassie O'Brien	·
32	11-21	UK	UK×3	Ace	Kentucky	aced Zoey Matias	·
33	11-22	UK	UK×3	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	·
34	12-22	UK	MIZZOU×3	Serve err	Kentucky		·
35	13-22	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Morgan Gaerte		·
36	14-22	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Georgia Watson		·
37	14-23	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	·
38	15-23	UK	MIZZOU	Kill	Ceylin Kuyan		·
39	16-23	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Georgia Watson		·
40	16-24	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Morgan Gaerte	set Kassie O'Brien	·
41	17-24	UK	MIZZOU	Serve err	Kentucky		·
42	17-25	MIZZOU	UK	Kill	Kennedy Washington	set Kassie O'Brien	·

Score shown after each rally, Missouri first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Kentucky def. Missouri 3–0

Morgan Gaerte needed just 3 sets for 19 kills. Kentucky swept Missouri.