Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayHORIZON

1:3

HomeBIG-12

UCF def. Robert Morris 3–1

(25-10, 25-12, 20-25, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
ROBMOR	10	12	25	21	1
UCF	25	25	20	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UCF above 50 · ROBMOR below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to UCF — set 4, ROBMOR 20-23 UCF. Addyson Butts stuffed by Fallon Stewart. UCF win probability 99% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ROBMOR 0.3%99.7% UCF

Robert Morris wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.2%

UCF wins

3-0

83.6%

3-1

14.6%

3-2

1.6%

ROBMOR break %: 32.4% vs this opp
UCF break %: 53.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Addyson ButtsAttack error+0.3%
Addyson Butts stuffed by Fallon Stewart
Set 4 · ROBMOR 20-23 UCF · UCF 99% → 100%
02
Natalie FrostKill+0.3%
Kill by Natalie Frost (set by Addison Fowler)
Set 4 · ROBMOR 20-22 UCF · ROBMOR 0% → 1%
03
Natalie StepanovichKill+0.2%
Kill by Natalie Stepanovich (set by Kenlee Barnard)
Set 4 · ROBMOR 5-6 UCF · ROBMOR 0% → 1%
04
Abby SchomersKill+0.2%
Kill by Abby Schomers (set by Kenlee Barnard)
Set 4 · ROBMOR 20-24 UCF · UCF 100% → 100%
05
UCF serverService error+0.2%
UCF service error
Set 4 · ROBMOR 6-7 UCF · ROBMOR 0% → 1%
06
Ella ChapmanKill+0.2%
Kill by Ella Chapman (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 4 · ROBMOR 6-9 UCF · UCF 100% → 100%
07
Natasha CaseyKill+0.1%
Kill by Natasha Casey (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 4 · ROBMOR 6-8 UCF · UCF 99% → 100%
08
Addyson ButtsKill+0.1%
Kill by Addyson Butts (set by Kenlee Barnard)
Set 4 · ROBMOR 19-22 UCF · ROBMOR 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Robert Morrisaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Addyson ButtsMB	4	6	4	15	.133	0	2	2	1	0	1	2	2	10
15Keira HornungMB	4	4	2	14	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5
1Kenlee BarnardS	4	0	0	3	.000	28	0	0	10	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
3Tia SchultzOH	3	4	3	13	.077	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	4
8Maddie SiphakongvisethL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Layla ToddOH	1	2	2	13	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
4Natalie StepanovichOH	4	8	2	24	.250	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	9
10Anahi AlvaradoL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	11	2	0	0	0	0
12Cat SmithL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
14Natalie FrostOH	3	5	5	24	.000	0	3	0	4	0	1	0	1	9
13Lauren DeckerOH	3	4	3	17	.059	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
16Addison FowlerDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	21	123	.098	31	6	6	43	4	3	4	5	68

UCFhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Avah ArmourOH	4	25	5	45	.444	0	2	2	11	3	0	6	3	30
3Sasha CohenMB	4	9	1	15	.533	0	0	0	2	0	0	10	5	14
1Abby SchomersS	4	4	1	6	.500	39	1	3	4	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
5Fallon StewartOH	4	5	3	16	.125	2	0	2	11	0	1	0	1	6
8Ella ChapmanMB	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
11Reese MooreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
16Natasha CaseyOPP	4	12	1	22	.500	0	0	4	2	0	0	3	1.5	13.5
14Kiki HorneOH	4	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Alexa HaleyL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	14	1	1	21	0	0	0	0	1
2Sarah MendozaL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
20Mikayla PorterS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
15Emma CookMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		63	15	124	.387	56	4	14	62	6	1	26	14	95

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 ROBMOR · UCF 6

Set 1

10-25

Longest run 2 ROBMORUCF 6

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 2 ROBMORUCF 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 ROBMORUCF 3

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 6 ROBMORUCF 5

Bars above the line = UCF leads, below = Robert Morris leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Robert Morris

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	14%1/7
2	44%8/18	47%7/15
3	50%8/16	27%3/11
4	44%7/16	33%4/12
5	58%7/12	42%5/12
6	38%5/13	42%5/12
All	46%43/94	36%25/69

UCF

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	65%11/17
2	67%8/12	62%13/21
3	62%8/13	27%3/11
4	88%7/8	65%13/20
5	41%7/17	36%4/11
6	86%6/7	50%7/14
All	64%44/69	54%51/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

163 rallies

Rally log

#	ROBMOR-UCF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
2	1-1	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
3	1-2	ROBMOR	UCF×5	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.0
4	1-3	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
5	1-4	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
6	1-5	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Sasha Cohen		+0.0
7	1-6	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Tia Schultz	blk Avah Armour, Sasha Cohen	+0.0
8	2-6	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
9	2-7	ROBMOR	UCF	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.0
10	3-7	UCF	ROBMOR	Attack err	Kiki Horne	blk Kenlee Barnard, Addyson Butts	+0.0
11	4-7	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts		+0.0
12	4-8	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
13	5-8	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
14	5-9	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
15	6-9	UCF	ROBMOR	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Keira Hornung	+0.0
16	6-10	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
17	7-10	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
18	7-11	ROBMOR	UCF×4	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.0
19	7-12	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Tia Schultz	blk Avah Armour, Sasha Cohen	+0.0
20	7-13	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
21	7-14	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Layla Todd	blk Sasha Cohen, Abby Schomers	+0.0
22	8-14	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
23	8-15	ROBMOR	UCF×3	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
24	8-16	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Tia Schultz	blk Avah Armour, Sasha Cohen	+0.0
25	8-17	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Fallon Stewart	+0.0
26	9-17	UCF	ROBMOR	Attack err	Natasha Casey	blk Addyson Butts, Layla Todd	+0.0
27	9-18	ROBMOR	UCF	Attack err	Layla Todd	blk Sasha Cohen, Avah Armour	+0.0
28	9-19	UCF	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
29	10-19	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
30	10-20	ROBMOR	UCF×6	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
31	10-21	UCF	UCF×6	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
32	10-22	UCF	UCF×6	Attack err	Addyson Butts	blk Ella Chapman, Kiki Horne	+0.0
33	10-23	UCF	UCF×6	Attack err	Lauren Decker	blk Ella Chapman, Natasha Casey	+0.0
34	10-24	UCF	UCF×6	Attack err	Addyson Butts		+0.0
35	10-25	UCF	UCF×6	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ROBMOR	UCF	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+0.0
2	1-1	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Anahi Alvarado	+0.0
3	1-2	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
4	2-2	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
5	2-3	ROBMOR	UCF×5	Kill	Avah Armour	set Fallon Stewart	+0.0
6	2-4	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Natalie Frost	blk Sasha Cohen, Avah Armour	+0.0
7	2-5	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
8	2-6	UCF	UCF×5	Ace	UCF server	aced Team	+0.0
9	2-7	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Natalie Stepanovich		+0.0
10	3-7	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
11	3-8	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Reese Moore	+0.0
12	4-8	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
13	4-9	ROBMOR	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
14	4-10	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Team	+0.0
15	4-11	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Anahi Alvarado	+0.0
16	5-11	UCF	ROBMOR	Attack err	Kiki Horne		+0.0
17	5-12	ROBMOR	UCF	Attack err	Keira Hornung	blk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey	+0.0
18	6-12	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
19	6-13	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
20	7-13	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
21	7-14	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
22	7-15	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
23	8-15	UCF	ROBMOR	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.0
24	8-16	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
25	8-17	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
26	9-17	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
27	10-17	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
28	10-18	ROBMOR	UCF×3	Kill	Abby Schomers		+0.0
29	10-19	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Addyson Butts	blk Sasha Cohen, Avah Armour	+0.0
30	10-20	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
31	11-20	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
32	11-21	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
33	12-21	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
34	12-22	ROBMOR	UCF×4	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
35	12-23	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+0.0
36	12-24	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
37	12-25	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
2	1-1	UCF	ROBMOR×4	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
3	2-1	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
4	3-1	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.0
5	4-1	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Reese Moore	+0.0
6	4-2	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
7	4-3	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
8	5-3	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
9	5-4	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
10	6-4	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
11	6-5	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart		+0.0
12	6-6	UCF	UCF	Bad set	Kenlee Barnard		+0.0
13	7-6	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
14	7-7	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
15	8-7	UCF	ROBMOR×4	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
16	9-7	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Attack err	Emma Cook		+0.0
17	10-7	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Team	+0.0
18	11-7	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Kill	Natalie Frost	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
19	11-8	ROBMOR	UCF	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.0
20	11-9	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
21	12-9	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
22	13-9	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Abby Schomers	blk Natalie Frost	+0.1
23	13-10	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
24	13-11	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Natalie Frost	blk Abby Schomers, Sasha Cohen	+0.0
25	14-11	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
26	15-11	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Reese Moore	+0.1
27	15-12	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
28	15-13	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Keira Hornung		+0.0
29	16-13	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
30	17-13	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.1
31	17-14	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
32	18-14	UCF	ROBMOR×3	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
33	19-14	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
34	20-14	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Sasha Cohen	blk Addyson Butts	+0.1
35	20-15	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
36	21-15	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
37	21-16	ROBMOR	UCF	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.0
38	21-17	UCF	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
39	22-17	UCF	ROBMOR×3	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
40	23-17	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Avah Armour	+0.1
41	24-17	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Fallon Stewart		+0.0
42	24-18	ROBMOR	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
43	24-19	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
44	24-20	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Natalie Frost		+0.0
45	25-20	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Frost	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
Set 4
1	0-1	ROBMOR	UCF×5	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
2	0-2	UCF	UCF×5	Ace	UCF server	aced Anahi Alvarado	+0.1
3	0-3	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
4	0-4	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.1
5	0-5	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
6	1-5	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
7	2-5	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
8	2-6	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers		+0.1
9	3-6	UCF	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Fallon Stewart		+0.1
10	4-6	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Fallon Stewart		+0.1
11	5-6	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
12	5-7	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
13	6-7	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.2
14	6-8	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
15	6-9	UCF	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
16	7-9	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
17	7-10	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers		+0.1
18	7-11	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Natalie Frost	blk Abby Schomers, Ella Chapman	+0.1
19	8-11	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
20	8-12	ROBMOR	UCF×3	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.1
21	8-13	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
22	8-14	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Natalie Frost		+0.1
23	9-14	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
24	9-15	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
25	9-16	UCF	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Tia Schultz	+0.0
26	10-16	UCF	ROBMOR×3	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
27	11-16	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Avah Armour	+0.0
28	12-16	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.1
29	12-17	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
30	12-18	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Natalie Stepanovich	blk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen	+0.1
31	13-18	UCF	ROBMOR	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
32	13-19	ROBMOR	UCF×3	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
33	13-20	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
34	13-21	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
35	14-21	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
36	14-22	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
37	15-22	UCF	ROBMOR×6	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
38	16-22	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×6	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Avah Armour	+0.0
39	17-22	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×6	Kill	Natalie Frost	set Addison Fowler	+0.0
40	18-22	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×6	Attack err	Kiki Horne		+0.1
41	19-22	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×6	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
42	20-22	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×6	Kill	Natalie Frost	set Addison Fowler	+0.3
43	20-23	ROBMOR	UCF	Attack err	Addyson Butts	blk Fallon Stewart	+0.3
44	20-24	UCF	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
45	21-24	UCF	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Frost	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
46	21-25	ROBMOR	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Robert Morris first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.