FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayCAA

0:3

HomeBIG-12

UCF def. Stony Brook 3–0

(25-20, 26-24, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
STONY	20	24	22	0
UCF	25	26	25	3

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UCF above 50 · STONY below

Biggest swing: 1.9% to Stony Brook — set 2, STONY 24-24 UCF. Kill by Quinn Anderson (set by Ayanna Pierre Louis). UCF win probability 98% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STONY 4.8%95.2% UCF

Stony Brook wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.3%

3-2

2.9%

UCF wins

3-0

56.1%

3-1

29.5%

3-2

9.6%

STONY break %: 38.5% vs this opp
UCF break %: 51.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Quinn AndersonKill+1.9%
Kill by Quinn Anderson (set by Ayanna Pierre Louis)
Set 2 · STONY 24-24 UCF · STONY 2% → 4%
02
Abby SchomersKill+1.6%
Kill by Abby Schomers (set by Ayanna Pierre Louis)
Set 2 · STONY 24-25 UCF · UCF 96% → 98%
03
Avari AmstutzAttack error+1.5%
Avari Amstutz stuffed by Natasha Casey & Sasha Cohen
Set 2 · STONY 24-26 UCF · UCF 98% → 99%
04
STONY serverAce+1.0%
Stony Brook ace on Fallon Stewart
Set 2 · STONY 16-13 UCF · STONY 5% → 6%
05
STONY serverAce+0.9%
Stony Brook ace on Reese Moore
Set 2 · STONY 15-13 UCF · STONY 4% → 5%
06
Sasha CohenKill+0.8%
Kill by Sasha Cohen (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 2 · STONY 16-15 UCF · UCF 95% → 96%
07
Fallon StewartKill+0.8%
Kill by Fallon Stewart (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 2 · STONY 16-16 UCF · UCF 96% → 97%
08
Ella SandersKill+0.8%
Kill by Ella Sanders (set by Rayanne Wheat)
Set 1 · STONY 12-13 UCF · STONY 4% → 5%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stony Brookaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Ella SandersOH	3	11	4	30	.233	1	0	0	9	2	0	3	1.5	12.5
5Damisi OsiboduMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	8
12Avari AmstutzOH	3	6	3	27	.111	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
7Ayanna Pierre LouisMB	3	2	2	7	.000	1	2	1	3	0	0	2	1	5
10Mercedes MottonMB	3	0	2	10	-.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1
1Rayanne WheatS	3	0	0	0	–	12	1	3	4	0	0	0	0	1
14Quinn AndersonOH	3	10	2	19	.421	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
3Carey-Jean BlockL/DS	3	1	0	3	.333	2	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	4
9Taryn SuS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
18Zayda FuertezL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	0
19Madison CignaL/DS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	14	107	.196	34	8	6	36	4	1	12	7	66

UCFhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Sasha CohenMB	3	10	2	15	.533	1	0	1	1	0	2	6	5	15
10Avah ArmourOH	3	8	3	22	.227	0	0	0	4	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
8Ella ChapmanMB	3	7	1	13	.462	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
5Fallon StewartOH	3	7	2	17	.294	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	7
1Abby SchomersS	3	3	0	4	.750	37	0	0	10	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
11Reese MooreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
16Natasha CaseyOPP	3	7	4	17	.176	1	3	3	4	0	0	2	1	11
14Kiki HorneOH	3	9	4	17	.294	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
9Alexa HaleyL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	1	1	14	1	0	0	0	1
20Mikayla PorterS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Sarah MendozaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	16	106	.330	44	4	7	47	8	4	14	11	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 STONY · UCF 7

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 STONYUCF 7

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 3 STONYUCF 6

Set 3*

22-25

Longest run 4 STONYUCF 4

Bars above the line = UCF leads, below = Stony Brook leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stony Brook

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%5/7	20%1/5
2	56%5/9	29%2/7
3	27%4/15	44%4/9
4	44%4/9	56%5/9
5	57%4/7	50%4/8
6	100%3/3	43%3/7
All	50%25/50	42%19/45

UCF

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	83%5/6	20%1/5
2	45%5/11	17%1/6
3	67%4/6	67%8/12
4	44%4/9	75%12/16
5	50%4/8	33%2/6
6	80%4/5	20%1/5
All	58%26/45	50%25/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

142 rallies

Rally log

#	STONY-UCF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STONY	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.4
2	1-1	UCF	STONY	Kill	Avari Amstutz	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.5
3	1-2	STONY	UCF×5	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.4
4	1-3	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis	blk Sasha Cohen	+0.5
5	1-4	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Sasha Cohen		+0.4
6	1-5	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
7	1-6	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
8	2-6	UCF	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
9	2-7	STONY	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
10	2-8	UCF	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
11	3-8	UCF	STONY	Attack err	Kiki Horne	blk Mercedes Motton, Damisi Osibodu	+0.2
12	4-8	STONY	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Carey-Jean Block	+0.3
13	4-9	STONY	UCF	Serve err	STONY server		+0.2
14	5-9	UCF	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.2
15	6-9	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Ella Chapman		+0.4
16	6-10	STONY	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
17	7-10	UCF	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.3
18	7-11	STONY	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Alexa Haley	+0.3
19	8-11	UCF	STONY	Kill	Avari Amstutz	set Taryn Su	+0.3
20	9-11	STONY	STONY	Kill	Avari Amstutz	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.5
21	9-12	STONY	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.4
22	9-13	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Mercedes Motton	blk Sasha Cohen, Avah Armour	+0.4
23	10-13	UCF	STONY×3	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Ayanna Pierre Louis, Mercedes Motton	+0.3
24	11-13	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.6
25	12-13	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.8
26	12-14	STONY	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.6
27	13-14	UCF	STONY	Kill	Ayanna Pierre Louis	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
28	13-15	STONY	UCF×7	Serve err	STONY server		+0.6
29	13-16	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.7
30	13-17	UCF	UCF×7	Bad set	Rayanne Wheat		+0.5
31	13-18	UCF	UCF×7	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey	+0.3
32	13-19	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
33	13-20	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Carey-Jean Block	+0.1
34	13-21	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
35	14-21	UCF	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.0
36	15-21	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Alexa Haley	+0.1
37	16-21	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Natasha Casey	blk Damisi Osibodu, Ella Sanders	+0.1
38	16-22	STONY	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Alexa Haley	+0.1
39	17-22	UCF	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.1
40	18-22	STONY	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.2
41	18-23	STONY	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
42	18-24	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Avari Amstutz	blk Ella Chapman, Abby Schomers	+0.1
43	19-24	UCF	STONY	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
44	20-24	STONY	STONY	Kill	Avari Amstutz	set Carey-Jean Block	+0.1
45	20-25	STONY	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Fallon Stewart	+0.3
2	1-1	UCF	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.3
3	1-2	STONY	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
4	2-2	UCF	STONY	Attack err	Sasha Cohen		+0.3
5	2-3	STONY	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
6	3-3	UCF	STONY×3	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.3
7	4-3	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Sasha Cohen	blk Damisi Osibodu	+0.5
8	5-3	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Team	+0.5
9	5-4	STONY	UCF×6	Serve err	STONY server		+0.4
10	5-5	UCF	UCF×6	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Natasha Casey	+0.5
11	5-6	UCF	UCF×6	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.4
12	5-7	UCF	UCF×6	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+0.4
13	5-8	UCF	UCF×6	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
14	5-9	UCF	UCF×6	Attack err	Mercedes Motton	blk Sasha Cohen, Kiki Horne	+0.2
15	6-9	UCF	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
16	7-9	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Team	+0.3
17	8-9	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Natasha Casey	blk Damisi Osibodu, Ella Sanders	+0.4
18	8-10	STONY	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
19	9-10	UCF	STONY×3	Serve err	UCF server		+0.4
20	10-10	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Team	+0.5
21	11-10	STONY	STONY×3	Attack err	Natasha Casey		+0.6
22	11-11	STONY	UCF	Serve err	STONY server		+0.5
23	12-11	UCF	STONY	Attack err	Kiki Horne		+0.6
24	12-12	STONY	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Alexa Haley	+0.5
25	13-12	UCF	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.6
26	13-13	STONY	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
27	14-13	UCF	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.6
28	15-13	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Reese Moore	+0.9
29	16-13	STONY	STONY×3	Ace	STONY server	aced Fallon Stewart	+1.0
30	16-14	STONY	UCF×4	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Sasha Cohen, Avah Armour	+0.6
31	16-15	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
32	16-16	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
33	16-17	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Damisi Osibodu	blk Sasha Cohen	+0.7
34	17-17	UCF	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ella Sanders	+0.7
35	17-18	STONY	UCF	Serve err	STONY server		+0.6
36	18-18	UCF	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.7
37	18-19	STONY	UCF×3	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.7
38	18-20	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.7
39	18-21	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Ella Chapman		+0.6
40	19-21	UCF	STONY	Serve err	UCF server		+0.4
41	19-22	STONY	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
42	20-22	UCF	STONY	Serve err	UCF server		+0.4
43	20-23	STONY	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
44	21-23	UCF	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.3
45	21-24	STONY	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
46	22-24	UCF	STONY×3	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.2
47	23-24	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.7
48	24-24	STONY	STONY×3	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Ayanna Pierre Louis	+1.9
49	24-25	STONY	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Ayanna Pierre Louis	+1.6
50	24-26	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Avari Amstutz	blk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen	+1.5
Set 3
1	0-1	STONY	UCF×3	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
2	0-2	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Ella Sanders	+0.1
3	0-3	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Ella Sanders	blk Avah Armour, Sasha Cohen	+0.1
4	1-3	UCF	STONY	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
5	2-3	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Quinn Anderson, Ayanna Pierre Louis	+0.1
6	2-4	STONY	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
7	3-4	UCF	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.1
8	4-4	STONY	STONY	Kill	Avari Amstutz	set Taryn Su	+0.2
9	4-5	STONY	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
10	5-5	UCF	STONY	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Taryn Su	+0.2
11	6-5	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Kiki Horne		+0.2
12	6-6	STONY	UCF	Serve err	STONY server		+0.2
13	6-7	UCF	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Zayda Fuertez	+0.2
14	7-7	UCF	STONY×4	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
15	8-7	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Natasha Casey	blk Damisi Osibodu, Ella Sanders	+0.3
16	9-7	STONY	STONY×4	Ace	STONY server	aced Team	+0.3
17	10-7	STONY	STONY×4	Attack err	Kiki Horne		+0.3
18	10-8	STONY	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
19	10-9	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
20	10-10	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Team	+0.3
21	11-10	UCF	STONY	Serve err	UCF server		+0.2
22	11-11	STONY	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers		+0.2
23	11-12	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis	blk Avah Armour	+0.2
24	12-12	UCF	STONY	Serve err	UCF server		+0.2
25	13-12	STONY	STONY	Kill	Ella Sanders	set Taryn Su	+0.3
26	13-13	STONY	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
27	13-14	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Quinn Anderson	blk Abby Schomers	+0.3
28	14-14	UCF	STONY	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.3
29	14-15	STONY	UCF×4	Attack err	Ella Sanders		+0.2
30	14-16	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.3
31	14-17	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Zayda Fuertez	+0.2
32	14-18	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Avari Amstutz		+0.2
33	15-18	UCF	STONY	Kill	Quinn Anderson	set Taryn Su	+0.1
34	15-19	STONY	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
35	16-19	UCF	STONY	Attack err	Fallon Stewart		+0.1
36	16-20	STONY	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Sasha Cohen	+0.1
37	16-21	UCF	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
38	17-21	UCF	STONY×4	Kill	Avari Amstutz	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.1
39	18-21	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Damisi Osibodu		+0.1
40	19-21	STONY	STONY×4	Kill	Damisi Osibodu	set Rayanne Wheat	+0.2
41	20-21	STONY	STONY×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
42	20-22	STONY	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
43	20-23	UCF	UCF×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
44	20-24	UCF	UCF×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
45	21-24	UCF	STONY	Kill	Carey-Jean Block	set Zayda Fuertez	+0.0
46	22-24	STONY	STONY	Attack err	Ayanna Pierre Louis		+0.1
47	22-25	STONY	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Stony Brook first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.