FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayACC

0:3

HomeBIG-12

UCF def. NC State 3–0

(25-21, 25-20, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NC ST	21	20	26	0
UCF	25	25	28	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UCF above 50 · NC ST below

Biggest swing: 5.3% to UCF — set 3, NC ST 23-24 UCF. Attack error by Britni Silver. UCF win probability 90% → 95%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NC ST 41.0%59.0% UCF

NC State wins

3-0

9.1%

3-1

15.0%

3-2

16.9%

UCF wins

3-0

16.7%

3-1

22.5%

3-2

19.8%

NC ST break %: 41.8% vs this opp
UCF break %: 43.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Britni SilverAttack error+5.3%
Attack error by Britni Silver
Set 3 · NC ST 23-24 UCF · UCF 90% → 95%
02
Talia FrancomAttack error+5.1%
Talia Francom stuffed by Avah Armour
Set 3 · NC ST 26-28 UCF · UCF 95% → 100%
03
Kiki HorneKill+4.0%
Kill by Kiki Horne (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 2 · NC ST 17-18 UCF · UCF 74% → 78%
04
Sophia GroomKill+4.0%
Kill by Sophia Groom (set by Eva Long)
Set 3 · NC ST 24-24 UCF · NC ST 5% → 9%
05
Britni SilverAttack error+4.0%
Attack error by Britni Silver
Set 3 · NC ST 24-25 UCF · UCF 91% → 95%
06
Ella ChapmanAttack error+4.0%
Attack error by Ella Chapman
Set 3 · NC ST 25-25 UCF · NC ST 5% → 9%
07
Natasha CaseyKill+4.0%
Kill by Natasha Casey (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 3 · NC ST 25-26 UCF · UCF 91% → 95%
08
Sophia GroomKill+4.0%
Kill by Sophia Groom (set by Eva Long)
Set 3 · NC ST 26-26 UCF · NC ST 5% → 9%

Official NCAA box

Box score

NC Stateaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Talia FrancomMB	3	6	2	16	.250	1	2	2	1	0	0	6	3	11
42Britni SilverOH	3	10	6	26	.154	0	0	0	11	4	0	1	0.5	10.5
4Sophia GroomMB	3	6	1	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
23Jordan SmithOPP	3	6	3	14	.214	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
27Rebecca RingOH	3	4	6	25	-.080	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
22Eva LongS	3	3	0	7	.429	26	1	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Clara VondranOH	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
31Elaisa VillarL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
1Zuzanna MaciejewiczL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	12	0	0	0	0	1
7Kate KilpatrickL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
14Norah BuschMB	2	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		38	22	114	.140	35	6	3	40	4	1	14	8	67

UCFhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Avah ArmourOH	3	21	4	46	.370	0	0	0	3	1	1	3	2.5	23.5
8Ella ChapmanMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	7
3Sasha CohenMB	3	3	1	9	.222	0	0	1	1	0	2	3	3.5	6.5
1Abby SchomersS	3	3	0	8	.375	38	0	2	7	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
5Fallon StewartOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	1	3	6	2	0	0	0	1
11Reese MooreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
14Kiki HorneOH	3	10	1	15	.600	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10
16Natasha CaseyOPP	3	7	1	15	.400	0	1	2	3	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
20Mikayla PorterS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Alexa HaleyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	17	0	0	0	0	0
2Sarah MendozaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	10	106	.368	46	4	12	43	6	3	16	11	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 NC ST · UCF 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 NC STUCF 3

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 NC STUCF 5

Set 3

26-28

Longest run 4 NC STUCF 4

Bars above the line = UCF leads, below = NC State leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

NC State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	38%5/13
2	50%8/16	18%2/11
3	100%8/8	43%6/14
4	54%7/13	43%6/14
5	58%7/12	13%1/8
6	64%7/11	13%1/8
All	60%46/77	31%21/68

UCF

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	53%9/17
2	64%9/14	47%8/17
3	53%8/15	11%1/9
4	78%7/9	22%2/9
5	100%7/7	46%6/13
6	64%7/11	42%5/12
All	69%47/68	40%31/77

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

145 rallies

Rally log

#	NC ST-UCF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UCF	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Eva Long	+2.4
2	0-2	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Rebecca Ring	blk Abby Schomers, Ella Chapman	+2.3
3	1-2	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+1.7
4	1-3	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.8
5	2-3	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+1.7
6	2-4	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.8
7	3-4	UCF	NC ST×3	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+1.8
8	4-4	NC ST	NC ST×3	Bad set	Abby Schomers		+2.6
9	5-4	NC ST	NC ST×3	Ace	NC ST server	aced Avah Armour	+2.7
10	5-5	NC ST	UCF	Serve err	NC ST server		+2.0
11	6-5	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+2.1
12	6-6	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Sarah Mendoza	+2.0
13	7-6	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+2.1
14	7-7	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Alexa Haley	+2.1
15	8-7	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+2.2
16	9-7	NC ST	NC ST	Ace	NC ST server	aced Reese Moore	+3.0
17	9-8	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+2.1
18	10-8	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long		+2.3
19	10-9	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+2.1
20	11-9	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+2.4
21	11-10	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+2.2
22	12-10	UCF	NC ST	Attack err	Natasha Casey	blk Britni Silver, Talia Francom	+2.4
23	12-11	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+2.3
24	12-12	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Britni Silver	blk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey	+3.3
25	13-12	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+2.6
26	13-13	NC ST	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+2.5
27	13-14	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Mikayla Porter	+3.5
28	13-15	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Britni Silver	blk Natasha Casey, Abby Schomers	+3.4
29	14-15	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+2.4
30	14-16	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+2.6
31	14-17	UCF	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+3.2
32	15-17	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+2.0
33	16-17	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long	set Talia Francom	+3.4
34	16-18	NC ST	UCF×3	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+2.9
35	16-19	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Fallon Stewart	+3.5
36	16-20	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Talia Francom	blk Ella Chapman, Avah Armour	+2.7
37	17-20	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+1.4
38	17-21	NC ST	UCF×3	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+2.0
39	17-22	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.7
40	17-23	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+0.8
41	18-23	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.2
42	19-23	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Rebecca Ring	+0.6
43	19-24	NC ST	UCF	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+0.9
44	20-24	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+0.2
45	21-24	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.7
46	21-25	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.2
Set 2
1	1-0	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Talia Francom, Jordan Smith	+2.2
2	2-0	NC ST	NC ST	Ace	NC ST server	aced Fallon Stewart	+2.3
3	2-1	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.6
4	3-1	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+1.8
5	3-2	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.7
6	4-2	UCF	NC ST×3	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.8
7	5-2	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Kate Kilpatrick	+2.4
8	6-2	NC ST	NC ST×3	Ace	NC ST server	aced Fallon Stewart	+2.2
9	6-3	NC ST	UCF	Attack err	Jordan Smith	blk Sasha Cohen, Avah Armour	+1.5
10	7-3	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.7
11	7-4	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+1.5
12	8-4	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.7
13	8-5	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+1.5
14	8-6	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Rebecca Ring	blk Abby Schomers, Ella Chapman	+2.3
15	9-6	UCF	NC ST	Attack err	Kiki Horne	blk Sophia Groom, Eva Long	+1.9
16	10-6	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long	set Kiki Horne	+2.4
17	10-7	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Eva Long	+1.6
18	10-8	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+2.4
19	11-8	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+2.0
20	11-9	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers		+1.8
21	12-9	UCF	NC ST	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Talia Francom, Rebecca Ring	+2.1
22	13-9	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom	+2.6
23	13-10	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+1.6
24	14-10	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+2.0
25	14-11	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.6
26	15-11	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+2.0
27	16-11	NC ST	NC ST	Ace	NC ST server	aced Kiki Horne	+2.3
28	16-12	NC ST	UCF×5	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+1.3
29	16-13	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Britni Silver	blk Ella Chapman, Natasha Casey	+2.2
30	16-14	UCF	UCF×5	Ace	UCF server	aced Britni Silver	+2.7
31	16-15	UCF	UCF×5	Ace	UCF server	aced Britni Silver	+3.2
32	16-16	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Britni Silver		+3.6
33	17-16	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+2.9
34	17-17	NC ST	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+2.8
35	17-18	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+4.0
36	17-19	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+3.9
37	18-19	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+2.6
38	18-20	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+3.1
39	18-21	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+3.5
40	19-21	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Elaisa Villar	+1.9
41	19-22	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+2.7
42	19-23	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+2.4
43	20-23	UCF	NC ST	Attack err	Fallon Stewart	blk Talia Francom, Rebecca Ring	+0.8
44	20-24	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.6
45	20-25	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.6
Set 3
1	1-0	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+1.0
2	1-1	NC ST	UCF×4	Serve err	NC ST server		+1.0
3	1-2	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+1.3
4	1-3	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.3
5	1-4	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Norah Busch	blk Avah Armour, Sasha Cohen	+1.2
6	2-4	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.9
7	2-5	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.9
8	3-5	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.9
9	4-5	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Sasha Cohen	blk Sophia Groom	+1.3
10	4-6	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.0
11	5-6	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+1.0
12	6-6	NC ST	NC ST	Ace	NC ST server	aced Kiki Horne	+1.5
13	6-7	NC ST	UCF	Attack err	Sophia Groom		+1.1
14	7-7	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Elaisa Villar	+1.1
15	7-8	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+1.2
16	7-9	UCF	UCF	Ace	UCF server	aced Britni Silver	+1.5
17	8-9	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Elaisa Villar	+1.1
18	9-9	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom		+1.6
19	9-10	NC ST	UCF×3	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+1.2
20	9-11	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+1.6
21	9-12	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Britni Silver	+1.5
22	10-12	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Elaisa Villar	+1.0
23	11-12	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Ella Chapman	blk Talia Francom, Norah Busch	+1.6
24	11-13	NC ST	UCF	Attack err	Norah Busch		+1.3
25	12-13	UCF	NC ST×4	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+1.2
26	13-13	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Avah Armour		+1.9
27	14-13	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+2.0
28	15-13	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+2.0
29	15-14	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.4
30	16-14	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+1.6
31	17-14	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+2.0
32	17-15	NC ST	UCF	Serve err	NC ST server		+1.2
33	18-15	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+1.6
34	18-16	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Sarah Mendoza	+1.3
35	19-16	UCF	NC ST	Serve err	UCF server		+1.6
36	19-17	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+1.3
37	20-17	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Elaisa Villar	+1.7
38	20-18	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+1.3
39	21-18	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Elaisa Villar	+1.8
40	21-19	NC ST	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+1.3
41	21-20	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Clara Vondran		+2.4
42	21-21	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Clara Vondran	blk Sasha Cohen	+3.1
43	22-21	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Clara Vondran	set Eva Long	+2.7
44	22-22	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+2.6
45	23-22	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+3.3
46	23-23	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+3.1
47	23-24	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Britni Silver		+5.3
48	24-24	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+4.0
49	24-25	NC ST	UCF	Attack err	Britni Silver		+4.0
50	25-25	UCF	NC ST	Attack err	Ella Chapman		+4.0
51	25-26	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+4.0
52	26-26	UCF	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+4.0
53	26-27	NC ST	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+4.0
54	26-28	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Talia Francom	blk Avah Armour	+5.1

Score shown after each rally, NC State first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.