Final · 5 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026

Wake Forest def. UCF 3–2

Wake Forest beat visiting UCF 3-2 (15-25, 25-16, 25-18, 14-25, 15-11) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026. Patrycja Lagida led Wake Forest with 15 kills; UCF's Avah Armour had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Sep 5

Set12345Sets
UCF25161825112
WAKE15252514153

Win probability

Wake Forest above 50 · UCF below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+10.0% WAKErally 189 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.0% to Wake Forest — set 5, UCF 11-14 WAKE. Kill by Amina Ndiaye (set by Emma Keeping). WAKE win probability 84% → 95%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCF 63.0%37.0% WAKE

UCF wins

3-0
18.9%
3-1
24.1%
3-2
20.0%

Wake Forest wins

3-0
7.8%
3-1
13.3%
3-2
15.9%
UCF break %
43.5% vs this opp
WAKE break %
40.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Amina NdiayeKill+10.0%

    Kill by Amina Ndiaye (set by Emma Keeping)

    Set 5 · UCF 11-14 WAKE · WAKE 84% → 95%

  2. 02
    Patrycja LagidaBlock+9.0%

    Ella Chapman stuffed by Patrycja Lagida

    Set 5 · UCF 0-2 WAKE · WAKE 52% → 61%

  3. 03

    Kill by Patrycja Lagida (set by Emma Keeping)

    Set 5 · UCF 0-3 WAKE · WAKE 61% → 70%

  4. 04
    Ella ChapmanAttack error+8.1%

    Attack error by Ella Chapman

    Set 5 · UCF 0-4 WAKE · WAKE 70% → 78%

  5. 05
    Ryleigh WhitekettleAttack error+7.4%

    Attack error by Ryleigh Whitekettle

    Set 5 · UCF 11-13 WAKE · UCF 8% → 16%

  6. 06
    Wake ForestAce+6.9%

    Wake Forest ace on Reese Moore

    Set 5 · UCF 0-5 WAKE · WAKE 78% → 85%

  7. 07
    UCFService error+6.7%

    UCF service error

    Set 5 · UCF 6-10 WAKE · WAKE 81% → 87%

  8. 08
    Natasha CaseyKill+6.6%

    Kill by Natasha Casey (set by Alexa Haley)

    Set 5 · UCF 5-8 WAKE · UCF 15% → 21%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UCFaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516550.2202146102118
56116.31303250031.510.5
59521.19010111010.59.5
55115.26711010052.58.5
55311.182000201227
5317.2863410120111.55.5
55314.143001700005
51011.0004101320002
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–002120000
5000–000000000
5000–300100000
5000–002110000
5000–000000000
Team totals5019135.23045712509214995
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515635.257211152313.519.5
59736.0560132004212
510321.3330001004212
55211.273010400217
5136-.3334502200001
5000–100420000
512831.12900010010.512.5
5000–050810005
5001.0001111510001
5012-.500000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
5000–000000000
Team totals5230143.1544997527312994

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UCF · WAKE 7

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 4 UCFWAKE 2

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 4 UCFWAKE 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 2 UCFWAKE 5

Set 4

25-14

Longest run 6 UCFWAKE 4

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 3 UCFWAKE 7

Bars above the line = Wake Forest leads, below = UCF leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UCF

SlotSideout %Break %
1
27%6/22
0%0/6
2
63%5/8
25%2/8
3
83%5/6
29%2/7
4
56%5/9
29%2/7
5
45%5/11
50%5/10
6
57%4/7
44%4/9
All
48%30/63
32%15/47

Wake Forest

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%6/6
73%11/15
2
75%6/8
63%10/16
3
63%5/8
29%2/7
4
56%5/9
0%0/5
5
71%5/7
55%6/11
6
56%5/9
44%4/9
All
68%32/47
52%33/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

189 rallies

#UCF-WAKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UCFUCFBlockedCatherine Burkeblk Ella Chapman+2.3
21-1UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+1.7
32-1WAKEUCF×4KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.7
43-1UCFUCF×4AceUCF+2.3
54-1UCFUCF×4Attack errPatrycja Lagida+2.1
65-1UCFUCF×4KillElla Chapman+1.9
75-2UCFWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.3
86-2WAKEUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.4
96-3UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+1.3
107-3WAKEUCFKillAbby Schomersset Alexa Haley+1.5
117-4UCFWAKEKillAmina Ndiaye+1.3
127-5WAKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.1
138-5WAKEUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Alexa Haley+1.7
149-5UCFUCF×4BlockedCatherine Burkeblk Avah Armour, Sasha Cohen+2.1
1510-5UCFUCF×4Attack errAmina Ndiaye+1.8
1611-5UCFUCF×4KillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.4
1711-6UCFWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.9
1812-6WAKEUCF×3BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey+1.0
1913-6UCFUCF×3Attack errAmina Ndiaye+1.1
2014-6UCFUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Kiki Horne+0.8
2114-7UCFWAKEServe errUCF+0.4
2214-8WAKEWAKEKillCatherine Burke+0.8
2315-8WAKEUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+0.8
2416-8UCFUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+0.7
2516-9UCFWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+0.3
2617-9WAKEUCF×3Serve errWake Forest+0.5
2718-9UCFUCF×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+0.4
2819-9UCFUCF×3AceUCFaced Mattea Saunders+0.2
2919-10UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagida+0.1
3019-11WAKEWAKEKillPatrycja Lagida+0.2
3120-11WAKEUCFServe errWake Forest+0.2
3220-12UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+0.1
3321-12WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.2
3421-13UCFWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.1
3522-13WAKEUCF×3KillAvah Armour+0.1
3623-13UCFUCF×3BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen+0.1
3724-13UCFUCF×3AceUCFaced Dhru Lalaji·
3824-14UCFWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Andrea Roman·
3924-15WAKEWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping·
4025-15WAKEUCFServe errWake Forest·
Set 2
10-1WAKEWAKEAceWake Forestaced Alexa Haley+2.1
20-2WAKEWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+2.2
31-2WAKEUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.5
41-3UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+1.7
52-3WAKEUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.5
62-4UCFWAKEServe errUCF+1.7
73-4WAKEUCFBlockedSanaa Williamsblk Abby Schomers+1.6
84-4UCFUCFAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.2
94-5UCFWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.7
105-5WAKEUCFBall handlingSanaa Williams+1.7
115-6UCFWAKE×3KillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.8
125-7WAKEWAKE×3Attack errSasha Cohen+2.5
135-8WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+2.4
146-8WAKEUCFKillAvah Armour+1.6
156-9UCFWAKEServe errUCF+1.8
167-9WAKEUCFKillNatasha Caseyset Abby Schomers+1.6
177-10UCFWAKE×4KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+1.9
187-11WAKEWAKE×4KillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+2.4
197-12WAKEWAKE×4BlockedElla Chapmanblk Patrycja Lagida, Catherine Burke+2.2
207-13WAKEWAKE×4AceWake Forestaced Avah Armour+1.8
218-13WAKEUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.0
228-14UCFWAKE×3KillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+1.3
238-15WAKEWAKE×3BlockedAvah Armourblk Patrycja Lagida+1.4
248-16WAKEWAKE×3BlockedAvah Armourblk Patrycja Lagida+1.0
259-16WAKEUCFKillAbby Schomersset Avah Armour+0.5
269-17UCFWAKEServe errUCF+0.7
279-18WAKEWAKEAceWake Forest+0.6
2810-18WAKEUCFServe errWake Forest+0.2
2910-19UCFWAKEServe errUCF+0.4
3011-19WAKEUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.2
3112-19UCFUCF×4Attack errEmma Keeping+0.4
3213-19UCFUCF×4Attack errAmina Ndiaye+0.6
3314-19UCFUCF×4Attack errEmma Keeping+1.0
3414-20UCFWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+1.1
3515-20WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+0.6
3615-21UCFWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+1.0
3716-21WAKEUCFServe errWake Forest+0.5
3816-22UCFWAKE×4KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+0.9
3916-23WAKEWAKE×4AceWake Forestaced Kiki Horne+0.6
4016-24WAKEWAKE×4BlockedKiki Horneblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Catherine Burke+0.2
4116-25WAKEWAKE×4AceWake Forest·
Set 3
10-1UCFWAKEAttack errKiki Horneset Natasha Casey+2.4
21-1WAKEUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+2.3
31-2UCFWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+2.5
41-3WAKEWAKEAceWake Forestaced Fallon Stewart+3.5
52-3WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.4
62-4UCFWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+2.6
73-4WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.4
84-4UCFUCFAttack errPatrycja Lagida+3.5
94-5UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+2.7
104-6WAKEWAKEKillSanaa Williams+3.7
115-6WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.6
126-6UCFUCFAceUCFaced Patrycja Lagida+3.6
136-7UCFWAKE×5KillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+2.8
146-8WAKEWAKE×5AceWake Forestaced Alexa Haley+3.9
156-9WAKEWAKE×5Attack errKiki Horne+3.9
166-10WAKEWAKE×5Attack errKiki Horne+3.6
176-11WAKEWAKE×5KillAmina Ndiayeset Mattea Saunders+3.3
187-11WAKEUCFKillNatasha Casey+1.9
198-11UCFUCFAceUCFaced Mattea Saunders+3.2
208-12UCFWAKEKillCatherine Burke+2.8
218-13WAKEWAKEKillCatherine Burke+3.4
229-13WAKEUCFKillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+1.9
239-14UCFWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+2.5
2410-14WAKEUCFKillNygeria Hartset Mikayla Porter+1.9
2510-15UCFWAKEServe errUCF+2.5
2611-15WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter+1.9
2711-16UCFWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+2.5
2812-16WAKEUCFAttack errRyleigh Whitekettleset Dhru Lalaji+1.8
2912-17UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+2.5
3012-18WAKEWAKEAceWake Forestaced Fallon Stewart+2.6
3113-18WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+1.2
3213-19UCFWAKEServe errUCF+1.8
3314-19WAKEUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+1.1
3415-19UCFUCFAttack errPatrycja Lagida+2.2
3515-20UCFWAKEServe errUCF+2.4
3615-21WAKEWAKEBlockedMattea Saundersblk Amina Ndiaye+2.1
3716-21WAKEUCFKillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+0.8
3816-22UCFWAKE×3Serve errUCF+1.4
3916-23WAKEWAKE×3KillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+0.9
4016-24WAKEWAKE×3KillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.3
4117-24WAKEUCFKillAvah Armourset Mikayla Porter·
4218-24UCFUCFAttack errPatrycja Lagida+0.1
4318-25UCFWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+0.2
Set 4
11-0WAKEUCFAttack errCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+2.6
21-1UCFWAKE×3Attack errAvah Armourset Nygeria Hart+2.7
31-2WAKEWAKE×3Attack errAbby Schomers+3.8
41-3WAKEWAKE×3KillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+3.9
52-3WAKEUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+2.7
62-4UCFWAKEAttack errAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+3.0
73-4WAKEUCF×6Serve errWake Forest+2.8
84-4UCFUCF×6KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+3.9
95-4UCFUCF×6BlockedEmma Keepingblk Sasha Cohen, Kiki Horne+3.9
106-4UCFUCF×6Attack errPatrycja Lagida+3.8
117-4UCFUCF×6KillElla Chapman+3.5
128-4UCFUCF×6KillKiki Horneset Abby Schomers+3.2
138-5UCFWAKE×4KillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+2.1
148-6WAKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
158-7WAKEWAKE×4Attack errKiki Horne+3.9
168-8WAKEWAKE×4KillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+4.3
179-8WAKEUCFServe errWake Forest+3.2
1810-8UCFUCFAttack errAmina Ndiaye+4.2
1910-9UCFWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+3.0
2011-9WAKEUCF×3Attack errAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+3.2
2112-9UCFUCF×3AceUCFaced Patrycja Lagida+4.0
2213-9UCFUCF×3KillNygeria Hart+3.5
2313-10UCFWAKEServe errUCF+2.2
2414-10WAKEUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.6
2515-10UCFUCF×4KillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+2.9
2616-10UCFUCF×4KillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+2.2
2717-10UCFUCF×4BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Ella Chapman, Avah Armour+1.5
2817-11UCFWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.7
2918-11WAKEUCF×4KillElla Chapmanset Abby Schomers+1.0
3019-11UCFUCF×4AceUCFaced Andrea Roman+0.8
3120-11UCFUCF×4KillNygeria Hartset Sasha Cohen+0.4
3221-11UCFUCF×4KillAlexa Haley+0.2
3321-12UCFWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Emma Keeping+0.1
3421-13WAKEWAKE×3BlockedNygeria Hartblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+0.1
3521-14WAKEWAKE×3BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Sanaa Williams, Ryleigh Whitekettle+0.3
3622-14WAKEUCF×4KillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+0.3
3723-14UCFUCF×4Attack errSanaa Williams+0.2
3824-14UCFUCF×4KillSasha Cohen·
3925-14UCFUCF×4Attack errSadie Poeck+1.2
Set 5
10-1UCFWAKE×7KillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+6.5
20-2WAKEWAKE×7BlockedElla Chapmanblk Patrycja Lagida+9.0
30-3WAKEWAKE×7KillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+8.8
40-4WAKEWAKE×7Attack errElla Chapman+8.1
50-5WAKEWAKE×7AceWake Forestaced Reese Moore+6.9
60-6WAKEWAKE×7Attack errNygeria Hart+5.5
70-7WAKEWAKE×7KillRyleigh Whitekettle+4.1
81-7WAKEUCFServe errWake Forest+1.9
92-7UCFUCFKillAvah Armourset Abby Schomers+3.7
102-8UCFWAKEKillPatrycja Lagidaset Emma Keeping+3.9
113-8WAKEUCF×3KillAvah Armour+2.5
124-8UCFUCF×3BlockedPatrycja Lagidablk Sasha Cohen, Natasha Casey+4.8
135-8UCFUCF×3KillNatasha Caseyset Alexa Haley+6.6
145-9UCFWAKEKillEmma Keepingset Patrycja Lagida+6.6
156-9WAKEUCFKillSasha Cohenset Abby Schomers+4.7
166-10UCFWAKE×3Serve errUCF+6.7
176-11WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+6.5
186-12WAKEWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+3.8
197-12WAKEUCFKillNygeria Hartset Abby Schomers+1.2
208-12UCFUCFKillNygeria Hartset Abby Schomers+3.0
218-13UCFWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+3.9
229-13WAKEUCF×3Attack errAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+1.5
2310-13UCFUCF×3BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Ella Chapman, Abby Schomers+4.0
2411-13UCFUCF×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+7.4
2511-14UCFWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+10.0
2611-15WAKEWAKEBlockedNygeria Hartblk Catherine Burke, Ryleigh Whitekettle+5.5

Score shown after each rally, UCF first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).