FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayBIG-12

3:0

HomeATLANTIC-10

UCF def. Davidson 3–0

(25-19, 25-17, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UCF	25	25	25	3
DAVID	19	17	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DAVID above 50 · UCF below

Biggest swing: 1.9% to Davidson — set 1, UCF 19-18 DAVID. Davidson ace on Kiki Horne. DAVID win probability 10% → 11%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UCF 88.2%11.8% DAVID

UCF wins

3-0

41.6%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.0%

Davidson wins

3-0

1.6%

3-1

3.7%

3-2

6.5%

UCF break %: 48.0% vs this opp
DAVID break %: 38.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
DAVID serverAce+1.9%
Davidson ace on Kiki Horne
Set 1 · UCF 19-18 DAVID · DAVID 10% → 11%
02
Ella ChapmanKill+1.7%
Kill by Ella Chapman (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 1 · UCF 21-18 DAVID · UCF 90% → 92%
03
Ella ChapmanKill+1.7%
Kill by Ella Chapman (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 1 · UCF 20-18 DAVID · UCF 89% → 90%
04
DAVID serverAce+1.3%
Davidson ace on Kiki Horne
Set 1 · UCF 19-17 DAVID · DAVID 8% → 10%
05
Meile SongailaKill+1.2%
Kill by Meile Songaila
Set 1 · UCF 16-14 DAVID · DAVID 9% → 10%
06
UCF serverAce+1.1%
UCF ace on Meile Songaila
Set 1 · UCF 22-18 DAVID · UCF 92% → 93%
07
Ariyana JohnsonAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Ariyana Johnson
Set 1 · UCF 18-14 DAVID · UCF 91% → 92%
08
Natasha CaseyKill+1.1%
Kill by Natasha Casey (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 1 · UCF 17-14 DAVID · UCF 90% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UCFaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Ella ChapmanMB	3	12	0	14	.857	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	13.5
10Avah ArmourOH	3	10	7	31	.097	1	0	2	2	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
3Sasha CohenMB	3	6	0	8	.750	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	3	9
1Abby SchomersS	3	4	0	5	.800	39	0	1	8	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
5Fallon StewartOH	3	2	0	3	.667	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
20Mikayla PorterS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
16Natasha CaseyOPP	3	9	1	12	.667	0	4	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
12Nygeria HartOH	3	5	2	13	.231	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	7
9Alexa HaleyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	21	0	0	0	0	0
11Reese MooreL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
14Kiki HorneOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	11	88	.420	46	6	8	47	3	3	6	6	75

Davidsonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Ellie OcampoOH	3	9	1	13	.615	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	10
19Elena Garcia-GuerriosOH	3	7	3	27	.148	0	1	2	5	1	0	0	8
15Meile SongailaOH	3	6	1	28	.179	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	6
3Kinsey SmithS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	0.5
5Ngodoo HarrisOH	2	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Cayla WeisnerMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Ariyana JohnsonOH	3	3	3	14	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
13Brooke BriscoeDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	3	5	2	0	0	2
4Ylame DsamouS	3	0	0	2	.000	12	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
1Adlee GrissettL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
2Peyton GarrickL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
14Mia CompasMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
16Myla YoungMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
20Melanie TillesMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		27	11	94	.170	26	3	10	25	6	6	3	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UCF · DAVID 3

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 UCFDAVID 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 4 UCFDAVID 2

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 4 UCFDAVID 3

Bars above the line = Davidson leads, below = UCF leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UCF

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	54%7/13
2	75%6/8	45%5/11
3	67%6/9	54%7/13
4	75%6/8	50%6/12
5	100%6/6	45%5/11
6	60%6/10	54%7/13
All	72%38/53	51%37/73

Davidson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	30%3/10
2	60%6/10	36%4/11
3	38%6/16	25%2/8
4	55%6/11	33%3/9
5	50%6/12	0%0/6
6	38%5/13	33%3/9
All	49%36/73	28%15/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	UCF-DAVID	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	DAVID	UCF×3	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
2	2-0	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+1.0
3	3-0	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	blk Sasha Cohen, Abby Schomers	+0.9
4	3-1	UCF	DAVID	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.7
5	3-2	DAVID	DAVID	Ace	DAVID server	aced Avah Armour	+1.1
6	4-2	DAVID	UCF	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.8
7	5-2	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Meile Songaila	blk Natasha Casey, Sasha Cohen	+0.9
8	5-3	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.7
9	6-3	DAVID	UCF	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.7
10	6-4	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.7
11	7-4	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.7
12	7-5	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.8
13	8-5	DAVID	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
14	9-5	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Brooke Briscoe	+0.8
15	10-5	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+0.7
16	10-6	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.5
17	11-6	DAVID	UCF×3	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
18	12-6	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
19	13-6	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Ella Chapman	+0.4
20	13-7	UCF	DAVID×3	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.2
21	13-8	DAVID	DAVID×3	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.4
22	13-9	DAVID	DAVID×3	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Ngodoo Harris, Ellie Ocampo	+0.6
23	14-9	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
24	14-10	UCF	DAVID	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.5
25	14-11	DAVID	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.9
26	15-11	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.7
27	15-12	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.7
28	16-12	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
29	16-13	UCF	DAVID	Attack err	Kiki Horne		+0.7
30	16-14	DAVID	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila		+1.2
31	17-14	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+1.1
32	18-14	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+1.1
33	18-15	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.7
34	19-15	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
35	19-16	UCF	DAVID×3	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.7
36	19-17	DAVID	DAVID×3	Ace	DAVID server	aced Kiki Horne	+1.3
37	19-18	DAVID	DAVID×3	Ace	DAVID server	aced Kiki Horne	+1.9
38	20-18	DAVID	UCF×4	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+1.7
39	21-18	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+1.7
40	22-18	UCF	UCF×4	Ace	UCF server	aced Meile Songaila	+1.1
41	23-18	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Ngodoo Harris	blk Ella Chapman	+0.6
42	23-19	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.2
43	24-19	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
44	25-19	UCF	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Kinsey Smith	+0.7
2	0-2	DAVID	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+1.0
3	1-2	DAVID	UCF	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.7
4	2-2	UCF	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.9
5	2-3	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.8
6	3-3	DAVID	UCF×4	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.7
7	4-3	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
8	5-3	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Abby Schomers	+0.8
9	6-3	UCF	UCF×4	Ace	UCF server	aced Team	+0.7
10	6-4	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.5
11	6-5	DAVID	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Adlee Grissett	+0.8
12	7-5	DAVID	UCF	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.6
13	8-5	UCF	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.7
14	8-6	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.5
15	9-6	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
16	9-7	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.6
17	10-7	DAVID	UCF×3	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.6
18	11-7	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.6
19	12-7	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
20	12-8	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.3
21	12-9	DAVID	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Kinsey Smith	+0.6
22	13-9	DAVID	UCF	Attack err	Ellie Ocampo		+0.5
23	13-10	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Kinsey Smith	+0.5
24	14-10	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Abby Schomers	+0.5
25	15-10	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios		+0.5
26	15-11	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.3
27	16-11	DAVID	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.4
28	17-11	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Elena Garcia-Guerrios	+0.4
29	18-11	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
30	18-12	UCF	DAVID	Bad set	Abby Schomers		+0.1
31	19-12	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
32	19-13	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.1
33	20-13	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Fallon Stewart	+0.1
34	21-13	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Cayla Weisner	blk Sasha Cohen	+0.1
35	21-14	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
36	22-14	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Avah Armour	+0.1
37	22-15	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.0
38	23-15	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
39	24-15	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios		+0.0
40	24-16	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
41	24-17	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Natasha Casey		+0.0
42	25-17	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
2	1-1	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.3
3	2-1	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
4	2-2	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Mia Compas	set Kinsey Smith	+0.3
5	3-2	DAVID	UCF×3	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.3
6	4-2	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Mikayla Porter	+0.4
7	5-2	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Meile Songaila	+0.3
8	5-3	UCF	DAVID	Serve err	UCF server		+0.2
9	6-3	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.2
10	7-3	UCF	UCF	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
11	7-4	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.2
12	8-4	DAVID	UCF	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.2
13	8-5	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.2
14	8-6	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.3
15	9-6	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
16	9-7	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.3
17	10-7	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
18	10-8	UCF	DAVID	Attack err	Nygeria Hart	blk Ellie Ocampo, Mia Compas	+0.3
19	11-8	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Abby Schomers	set Alexa Haley	+0.3
20	12-8	UCF	UCF	Ace	UCF server	aced Brooke Briscoe	+0.3
21	12-9	UCF	DAVID×3	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.2
22	12-10	DAVID	DAVID×3	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Kinsey Smith	+0.4
23	12-11	DAVID	DAVID×3	Attack err	Nygeria Hart		+0.5
24	13-11	DAVID	UCF×4	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.4
25	14-11	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.4
26	15-11	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
27	16-11	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Melanie Tilles	blk Ella Chapman, Avah Armour	+0.3
28	16-12	UCF	DAVID	Attack err	Avah Armour		+0.2
29	16-13	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Melanie Tilles, Kinsey Smith	+0.3
30	17-13	DAVID	UCF×3	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.3
31	18-13	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.3
32	19-13	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson	blk Sasha Cohen	+0.2
33	19-14	UCF	DAVID	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+0.1
34	20-14	DAVID	UCF×4	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
35	21-14	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
36	22-14	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
37	23-14	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
38	23-15	UCF	DAVID	Kill	Myla Young	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.0
39	24-15	DAVID	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
40	25-15	UCF	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UCF first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.