FinalWed, Sep 9, 2026

AwayASUN

0:3

HomeBIG-12

UCF def. Stetson 3–0

(25-17, 25-15, 25-13)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STETSN	17	15	13	0
UCF	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UCF above 50 · STETSN below

Biggest swing: 0.2% to Stetson — set 1, STETSN 14-11 UCF. Bad set by Abby Schomers. UCF win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STETSN 0.2%99.8% UCF

Stetson wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.2%

UCF wins

3-0

84.5%

3-1

13.8%

3-2

1.4%

STETSN break %: 34.9% vs this opp
UCF break %: 56.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Abby SchomersBad set+0.2%
Bad set by Abby Schomers
Set 1 · STETSN 14-11 UCF · STETSN 1% → 1%
02
Karsu BayraktarKill+0.2%
Kill by Karsu Bayraktar (set by Kayla Balfour)
Set 1 · STETSN 15-12 UCF · STETSN 1% → 1%
03
Vanessa ShevchenkoKill+0.2%
Kill by Vanessa Shevchenko (set by Maia Keely Pou)
Set 1 · STETSN 13-11 UCF · STETSN 0% → 1%
04
Kayla BalfourAttack error+0.2%
Kayla Balfour stuffed by Sasha Cohen
Set 1 · STETSN 15-14 UCF · UCF 99% → 99%
05
UCF serverService error+0.1%
UCF service error
Set 1 · STETSN 16-15 UCF · STETSN 0% → 1%
06
Lelia FitzAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Lelia Fitz
Set 1 · STETSN 15-15 UCF · UCF 99% → 100%
07
Avah ArmourKill+0.1%
Kill by Avah Armour (set by Abby Schomers)
Set 1 · STETSN 15-13 UCF · UCF 99% → 99%
08
Avah ArmourAttack error+0.1%
Avah Armour stuffed by Keely Starnes
Set 1 · STETSN 11-9 UCF · STETSN 0% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Stetsonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Andrea Diaz Dominguez	3	5	2	28	.107	1	1	1	3	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
16Keely StarnesMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
17Lelia FitzMB	3	3	3	13	.000	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	4
12Kayla BalfourMB	3	0	2	6	-.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	2.5
7Vanessa ShevchenkoS	3	1	2	5	-.200	7	0	0	4	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
10Karsu BayraktarOH	3	2	5	15	-.200	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	2
2Jannelize PerezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	12	0	0	0	0	2
8Larissa HiemerS	3	1	0	3	.333	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
6Maia Keely PouS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
4Vitoria StedileL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33Maria OzaetaOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Soraya TestonOH	1	1	1	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
5Sophie JonesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		16	17	87	-.011	14	4	2	32	4	4	8	8	45

UCFhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Fallon StewartOH	3	7	2	14	.357	2	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	8
20Mikayla PorterS	3	0	1	5	-.200	13	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
10Avah ArmourOH	2	7	2	17	.294	0	1	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
3Sasha CohenMB	2	5	1	8	.500	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	4	9
8Ella ChapmanMB	2	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
1Abby SchomersS	2	0	0	1	.000	29	1	1	6	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
16Natasha CaseyOPP	3	14	4	21	.476	0	0	4	3	0	0	2	1	15
9Alexa HaleyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	2	9	1	0	0	0	1
2Sarah MendozaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
12Nygeria HartOH	2	8	2	18	.333	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8
18Deana PetrovMB	2	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
14Kiki HorneOH	2	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	4
15Emma CookMB	2	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Reese MooreL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	14	108	.343	47	4	8	47	4	5	12	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 STETSN · UCF 11

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 STETSNUCF 7

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 STETSNUCF 11

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 STETSNUCF 5

Bars above the line = UCF leads, below = Stetson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Stetson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	25%2/8
2	46%6/13	14%1/7
3	19%5/26	40%4/10
4	67%4/6	38%3/8
5	40%4/10	33%2/6
6	67%4/6	50%4/8
All	40%29/73	34%16/47

UCF

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	17%1/6
2	75%6/8	54%7/13
3	75%6/8	75%18/24
4	50%4/8	71%10/14
5	57%4/7	33%2/6
6	67%4/6	60%6/10
All	66%31/47	60%44/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

120 rallies

Rally log

#	STETSN-UCF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Kayla Balfour, Lelia Fitz	+0.0
2	1-1	STETSN	UCF×4	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Ella Chapman, Abby Schomers	+0.0
3	1-2	UCF	UCF×4	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
4	1-3	UCF	UCF×4	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Avah Armour, Sasha Cohen	+0.0
5	1-4	UCF	UCF×4	Ace	UCF server	aced Team	+0.0
6	2-4	UCF	STETSN	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
7	2-5	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
8	3-5	UCF	STETSN×3	Attack err	Natasha Casey	blk Andrea Diaz Dominguez, Kayla Balfour	+0.0
9	4-5	STETSN	STETSN×3	Ace	STETSN server	aced Team	+0.0
10	5-5	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.1
11	5-6	STETSN	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
12	5-7	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Karsu Bayraktar	+0.0
13	5-8	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
14	6-8	UCF	STETSN×4	Bad set	Abby Schomers		+0.0
15	7-8	STETSN	STETSN×4	Attack err	Sasha Cohen	blk Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.0
16	8-8	STETSN	STETSN×4	Attack err	Natasha Casey		+0.1
17	9-8	STETSN	STETSN×4	Ace	STETSN server	aced Kiki Horne	+0.1
18	9-9	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
19	10-9	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Keely Starnes	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
20	11-9	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Avah Armour	blk Keely Starnes	+0.1
21	11-10	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
22	11-11	UCF	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
23	12-11	UCF	STETSN×3	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
24	13-11	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Vanessa Shevchenko	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.2
25	14-11	STETSN	STETSN×3	Bad set	Abby Schomers		+0.2
26	14-12	STETSN	UCF	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.1
27	15-12	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Kayla Balfour	+0.2
28	15-13	STETSN	UCF×3	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
29	15-14	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Kayla Balfour	blk Sasha Cohen	+0.2
30	15-15	UCF	UCF×3	Attack err	Lelia Fitz		+0.1
31	16-15	UCF	STETSN	Serve err	UCF server		+0.1
32	16-16	STETSN	UCF×7	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
33	16-17	UCF	UCF×7	Attack err	Lelia Fitz	blk Sasha Cohen	+0.1
34	16-18	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
35	16-19	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.1
36	16-20	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Avah Armour	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
37	16-21	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
38	16-22	UCF	UCF×7	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
39	17-22	UCF	STETSN	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
40	17-23	STETSN	UCF×3	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
41	17-24	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
42	17-25	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UCF	STETSN	Attack err	Fallon Stewart	blk Kayla Balfour	+0.0
2	2-0	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.0
3	2-1	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
4	3-1	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Avah Armour	+0.0
5	3-2	STETSN	UCF×11	Kill	Sasha Cohen	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
6	3-3	UCF	UCF×11	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		+0.0
7	3-4	UCF	UCF×11	Attack err	Keely Starnes		+0.0
8	3-5	UCF	UCF×11	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
9	3-6	UCF	UCF×11	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
10	3-7	UCF	UCF×11	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Sasha Cohen	+0.0
11	3-8	UCF	UCF×11	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
12	3-9	UCF	UCF×11	Kill	Avah Armour	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
13	3-10	UCF	UCF×11	Attack err	Lelia Fitz	blk Sasha Cohen, Avah Armour	+0.0
14	3-11	UCF	UCF×11	Kill	Sasha Cohen		+0.0
15	3-12	UCF	UCF×11	Kill	Sasha Cohen		+0.0
16	4-12	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.0
17	4-13	STETSN	UCF	Attack err	Keely Starnes	blk Deana Petrov, Avah Armour	+0.0
18	5-13	UCF	STETSN	Attack err	Kiki Horne		+0.0
19	6-13	STETSN	STETSN	Ace	STETSN server	aced Alexa Haley	+0.0
20	6-14	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
21	6-15	UCF	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
22	7-15	UCF	STETSN×3	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.0
23	8-15	STETSN	STETSN×3	Ace	STETSN server	aced Nygeria Hart	+0.0
24	9-15	STETSN	STETSN×3	Attack err	Emma Cook		+0.0
25	9-16	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
26	9-17	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Vanessa Shevchenko	blk Kiki Horne	+0.0
27	10-17	UCF	STETSN	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
28	10-18	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Kiki Horne	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
29	11-18	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.0
30	11-19	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Emma Cook	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
31	11-20	UCF	UCF	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Alexa Haley	+0.0
32	12-20	UCF	STETSN×3	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.0
33	13-20	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Keely Starnes	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
34	14-20	STETSN	STETSN×3	Attack err	Nygeria Hart		+0.0
35	14-21	STETSN	UCF×3	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
36	14-22	UCF	UCF×3	Ace	UCF server	aced Andrea Diaz Dominguez	+0.0
37	14-23	UCF	UCF×3	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
38	15-23	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.0
39	15-24	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Deana Petrov	set Abby Schomers	+0.0
40	15-25	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	STETSN	UCF	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.0
2	1-1	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.0
3	1-2	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
4	2-2	UCF	STETSN	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
5	2-3	STETSN	UCF×5	Kill	Ella Chapman	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
6	2-4	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
7	2-5	UCF	UCF×5	Ace	UCF server	aced Team	+0.0
8	2-6	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
9	2-7	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
10	3-7	UCF	STETSN	Attack err	Mikayla Porter	blk Soraya Teston	+0.0
11	3-8	STETSN	UCF	Attack err	Kayla Balfour	blk Ella Chapman	+0.0
12	4-8	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.0
13	4-9	STETSN	UCF×5	Kill	Deana Petrov	set Andrea Diaz Dominguez	+0.0
14	4-10	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.0
15	4-11	UCF	UCF×5	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	blk Natasha Casey, Deana Petrov	+0.0
16	4-12	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Fallon Stewart	+0.0
17	4-13	UCF	UCF×5	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Fallon Stewart	+0.0
18	5-13	UCF	STETSN	Attack err	Natasha Casey		+0.0
19	5-14	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Soraya Teston	+0.0
20	5-15	UCF	UCF	Attack err	Vanessa Shevchenko	blk Natasha Casey, Deana Petrov	+0.0
21	6-15	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Keely Starnes	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.0
22	6-16	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Natasha Casey	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
23	7-16	UCF	STETSN	Attack err	Fallon Stewart	blk Vanessa Shevchenko, Keely Starnes	+0.0
24	7-17	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
25	8-17	UCF	STETSN	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
26	8-18	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
27	8-19	UCF	UCF	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
28	9-19	UCF	STETSN	Serve err	UCF server		+0.0
29	9-20	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Fallon Stewart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
30	9-21	UCF	UCF	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
31	10-21	UCF	STETSN	Attack err	Nygeria Hart	blk Lelia Fitz, Kayla Balfour	+0.0
32	10-22	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Nygeria Hart	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
33	11-22	UCF	STETSN	Attack err	Natasha Casey		+0.0
34	11-23	STETSN	UCF	Kill	Deana Petrov	set Mikayla Porter	+0.0
35	12-23	UCF	STETSN	Kill	Larissa Hiemer	set Andrea Diaz Dominguez	+0.0
36	13-23	STETSN	STETSN	Bad set	Nygeria Hart		+0.0
37	13-24	STETSN	UCF	Attack err	Soraya Teston		+0.0
38	13-25	UCF	UCF	Bad set	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Stetson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.