FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayACC

3:0

HomeSEC

Louisville def. Texas 3–0

(25-12, 28-26, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LOUIS	25	28	25	3
TEXAS	12	26	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TEXAS above 50 · LOUIS below

Biggest swing: 7.5% to Louisville — set 2, LOUIS 24-24 TEXAS. Kill by Chloe Meester (set by Payton Petersen). TEXAS win probability 25% → 17%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LOUIS 74.3%25.7% TEXAS

Louisville wins

3-0

26.4%

3-1

28.4%

3-2

19.4%

Texas wins

3-0

4.6%

3-1

8.8%

3-2

12.3%

LOUIS break %: 43.2% vs this opp
TEXAS break %: 38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Chloe MeesterKill+7.5%
Kill by Chloe Meester (set by Payton Petersen)
Set 2 · LOUIS 24-24 TEXAS · LOUIS 75% → 83%
02
Chloe ChicoineKill+6.6%
Kill by Chloe Chicoine (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 2 · LOUIS 26-25 TEXAS · LOUIS 83% → 89%
03
Cari SpearsAttack error+5.9%
Cari Spears stuffed by Kalyssa Blackshear & Brooke Bultema
Set 2 · LOUIS 28-26 TEXAS · LOUIS 89% → 95%
04
LOUIS serverService error+5.0%
Louisville service error
Set 2 · LOUIS 24-25 TEXAS · TEXAS 17% → 23%
05
Chloe MeesterKill+5.0%
Kill by Chloe Meester (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 2 · LOUIS 25-25 TEXAS · LOUIS 77% → 83%
06
Torrey StaffordKill+4.5%
Kill by Torrey Stafford (set by Rella Binney)
Set 2 · LOUIS 26-26 TEXAS · TEXAS 11% → 15%
07
Kalyssa BlackshearKill+4.5%
Kill by Kalyssa Blackshear (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 2 · LOUIS 27-26 TEXAS · LOUIS 85% → 89%
08
Henley AndersonKill+4.5%
Kill by Henley Anderson (set by Rella Binney)
Set 2 · LOUIS 20-22 TEXAS · TEXAS 20% → 24%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Louisvilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
24Kalyssa BlackshearOPP	3	10	3	23	.304	0	0	0	4	0	0	6	3	13
7Chloe ChicoineOH	3	12	1	36	.306	1	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	12
44Brooke BultemaMB	3	7	4	11	.273	1	0	1	1	0	0	4	2	9
4Addison MakunMB	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	4
8Nayelis CabelloS	3	0	0	5	.000	36	0	1	10	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
3Kamden SchrandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
2Chloe MeesterOH	3	13	0	23	.565	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	13.5
21Payton PetersenL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	2	1	16	0	0	0	0	2
22Blair ThiebaudS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Hannah KennyS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	8	100	.350	41	3	6	50	2	1	16	9	78

Texashome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Torrey StaffordOH	3	14	5	37	.243	0	0	4	10	0	0	0	14
23Cari SpearsOH	3	12	9	34	.088	0	1	2	4	0	1	0.5	13.5
55Nya BuntonMB	3	5	0	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
10Taylor HarveyMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
22Henley AndersonOH	3	1	2	19	-.053	0	0	1	6	3	2	1	2
3Rella BinneyS	3	0	0	0	–	27	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
16Anja KujundzicL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
32Ramsey GaryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
14Addy GaidoOH	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Callie KruegerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
1Ella SwindleS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
5Genevieve HarrisS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	17	109	.174	34	2	13	38	3	6	3	54

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 LOUIS · TEXAS 3

Set 1

25-12

Longest run 6 LOUISTEXAS 2

Set 2

28-26

Longest run 3 LOUISTEXAS 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 5 LOUISTEXAS 2

Bars above the line = Texas leads, below = Louisville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Louisville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	20%2/10
2	80%8/10	58%11/19
3	58%7/12	50%7/14
4	100%7/7	36%4/11
5	75%6/8	45%5/11
6	86%6/7	50%6/12
All	78%43/55	45%35/77

Texas

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	13%1/8
2	50%8/16	20%2/10
3	47%7/15	38%5/13
4	78%7/9	13%1/8
5	50%6/12	13%1/8
6	50%6/12	25%2/8
All	55%42/77	22%12/55

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	LOUIS-TEXAS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.5
2	0-2	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear		+2.3
3	1-2	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.5
4	2-2	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Henley Anderson	blk Kalyssa Blackshear, Brooke Bultema	+2.2
5	2-3	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.6
6	3-3	TEXAS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.5
7	4-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.1
8	5-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Cari Spears		+2.0
9	6-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Rella Binney	+1.8
10	6-4	LOUIS	TEXAS	Serve err	LOUIS server		+1.2
11	6-5	TEXAS	TEXAS	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Chloe Chicoine	+2.0
12	7-5	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.4
13	8-5	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.9
14	8-6	LOUIS	TEXAS	Bad set	Payton Petersen		+1.2
15	9-6	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.3
16	10-6	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Henley Anderson	+1.7
17	10-7	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.0
18	11-7	TEXAS	LOUIS×6	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.1
19	12-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Taylor Harvey	blk Chloe Meester, Addison Makun	+1.4
20	13-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+1.0
21	14-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Cari Spears		+0.7
22	15-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Cari Spears		+0.5
23	16-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Cari Spears		+0.3
24	16-8	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
25	17-8	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
26	18-8	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
27	18-9	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.0
28	19-9	TEXAS	LOUIS×3	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.1
29	20-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Henley Anderson	+0.0
30	21-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Brooke Bultema	+0.0
31	21-10	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Rella Binney	+0.0
32	22-10	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
33	23-10	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
34	23-11	LOUIS	TEXAS	Attack err	Brooke Bultema		+0.0
35	24-11	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.0
36	24-12	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+0.0
37	25-12	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	TEXAS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.1
2	2-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk Brooke Bultema, Kalyssa Blackshear	+1.5
3	3-0	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.3
4	3-1	LOUIS	TEXAS	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.9
5	4-1	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.9
6	4-2	LOUIS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.9
7	4-3	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Brooke Bultema	blk Nya Bunton, Henley Anderson	+1.5
8	4-4	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.7
9	5-4	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Chloe Chicoine	+1.2
10	6-4	LOUIS	LOUIS	Bad set	Rella Binney		+1.6
11	6-5	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.1
12	7-5	TEXAS	LOUIS	Attack err	Torrey Stafford		+1.1
13	7-6	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.2
14	8-6	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.2
15	8-7	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.2
16	8-8	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear		+1.9
17	9-8	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.3
18	9-9	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.4
19	9-10	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Ramsey Gary	+2.2
20	10-10	TEXAS	LOUIS	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk Addison Makun	+1.5
21	11-10	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Ramsey Gary	+2.1
22	11-11	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.5
23	12-11	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.5
24	13-11	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.1
25	13-12	LOUIS	TEXAS	Serve err	LOUIS server		+1.4
26	14-12	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.4
27	15-12	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Cari Spears		+1.9
28	15-13	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.1
29	16-13	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.3
30	16-14	LOUIS	TEXAS	Serve err	LOUIS server		+1.2
31	16-15	TEXAS	TEXAS	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Chloe Chicoine	+2.2
32	17-15	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.7
33	17-16	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.6
34	18-16	TEXAS	LOUIS	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+1.8
35	18-17	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Rella Binney	+1.7
36	19-17	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.9
37	19-18	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.7
38	19-19	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear		+3.2
39	20-19	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.4
40	20-20	LOUIS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Brooke Bultema		+2.5
41	20-21	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Chloe Chicoine	blk Cari Spears, Nya Bunton	+4.3
42	20-22	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+4.5
43	21-22	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+2.3
44	21-23	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+3.5
45	22-23	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.4
46	22-24	LOUIS	TEXAS	Serve err	LOUIS server		+4.2
47	23-24	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.2
48	24-24	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Payton Petersen	+7.5
49	24-25	LOUIS	TEXAS	Serve err	LOUIS server		+5.0
50	25-25	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+5.0
51	26-25	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+6.6
52	26-26	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+4.5
53	27-26	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+4.5
54	28-26	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk Kalyssa Blackshear, Brooke Bultema	+5.9
Set 3
1	0-1	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.6
2	1-1	TEXAS	LOUIS×4	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.6
3	2-1	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.9
4	3-1	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.8
5	4-1	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Henley Anderson	+0.7
6	4-2	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.5
7	4-3	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Brooke Bultema	blk Henley Anderson, Nya Bunton	+0.8
8	5-3	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.6
9	6-3	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+0.8
10	6-4	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.5
11	7-4	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
12	8-4	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
13	8-5	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+0.4
14	9-5	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.5
15	9-6	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.4
16	9-7	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.8
17	10-7	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
18	10-8	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Ramsey Gary	+0.5
19	11-8	TEXAS	LOUIS	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.6
20	11-9	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Addy Gaido	set Ramsey Gary	+0.6
21	12-9	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.6
22	13-9	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Henley Anderson		+0.7
23	13-10	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.4
24	14-10	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
25	14-11	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.4
26	15-11	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
27	15-12	LOUIS	TEXAS	Bad set	Payton Petersen		+0.4
28	16-12	TEXAS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
29	17-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
30	18-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Hannah Kenny	+0.4
31	19-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Attack err	Cari Spears		+0.2
32	20-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
33	20-13	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Ella Swindle	+0.0
34	21-13	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
35	21-14	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Ella Swindle	+0.0
36	22-14	TEXAS	LOUIS	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.1
37	22-15	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Ella Swindle	+0.0
38	23-15	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Kamden Schrand	+0.0
39	23-16	LOUIS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Ella Swindle	+0.0
40	24-16	TEXAS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
41	25-16	LOUIS	LOUIS	Bad set	Ella Swindle		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Louisville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.