Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayNEC

1:3

HomeACC

Syracuse def. FDU 3–1

(25-14, 24-26, 26-24, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
FDU	14	26	24	15	1
SYR	25	24	26	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SYR above 50 · FDU below

Biggest swing: 6.9% to FDU — set 3, FDU 24-24 SYR. Attack error by Keila Gabriel. SYR win probability 92% → 85%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

FDU 4.9%95.1% SYR

FDU wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.4%

3-2

3.0%

Syracuse wins

3-0

55.7%

3-1

29.6%

3-2

9.8%

FDU break %: 36.5% vs this opp
SYR break %: 49.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Keila GabrielAttack error+6.9%
Attack error by Keila Gabriel
Set 3 · FDU 24-24 SYR · FDU 8% → 15%
02
Angela MarchettoAttack error+5.5%
Attack error by Angela Marchetto
Set 3 · FDU 24-26 SYR · SYR 90% → 96%
03
FDU serverService error+5.3%
FDU service error
Set 3 · FDU 24-25 SYR · SYR 85% → 90%
04
FDU serverAce+3.5%
FDU ace on Bo Nijenhuis
Set 2 · FDU 26-24 SYR · FDU 6% → 10%
05
Ava DeGuzmanKill+2.8%
Kill by Ava DeGuzman (set by Isabella Scarfone)
Set 3 · FDU 10-6 SYR · FDU 18% → 20%
06
FDU serverAce+2.6%
FDU ace on Kiernan Stamey
Set 3 · FDU 9-6 SYR · FDU 15% → 18%
07
Kiernan StameyAttack error+2.6%
Kiernan Stamey stuffed by Angela Marchetto & Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez
Set 2 · FDU 25-24 SYR · FDU 4% → 6%
08
Kiernan StameyAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Kiernan Stamey
Set 3 · FDU 23-24 SYR · FDU 5% → 8%

Official NCAA box

Box score

FDUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez SanchezOH	4	11	2	32	.281	0	0	1	6	1	4	2	13
14Mila SamardzijaOH	4	9	6	39	.077	0	1	1	6	3	3	1.5	11.5
7Ava DeGuzmanOH	4	6	6	24	.000	1	3	0	10	1	2	1	10
12Alessia ZampieriMB	4	7	3	11	.364	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
16Angela MarchettoMB	4	1	3	8	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	6	3	4
1Isabella ScarfoneS	4	2	0	5	.400	27	2	1	8	0	0	0	4
23Madeline JoyceL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	9	0	0	0	1
4Nina JasieckaOH	3	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
10Nora MargineanS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
21Jelena JevticL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0
9Ashlyn GualtieriOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Kayla GreenL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	20	123	.154	38	7	7	46	9	18	9	79

Syracusehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Kiernan StameyOH	4	19	6	43	.302	0	0	1	9	2	0	1	0.5	19.5
23Abby NicholsonMB	4	12	1	23	.478	1	3	1	3	0	0	3	1.5	16.5
12Keila GabrielOPP	4	10	7	29	.103	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	2	12
10Bo NijenhuisMB	4	7	2	14	.357	1	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
1Charis BurgeS	4	2	0	4	.500	49	0	4	12	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
6Marie LaurioOH	4	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
19Emma WilliamsOH	4	13	4	29	.310	0	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	17
18Yuka UranoL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	3	2	0	12	0	0	0	0	2
21Bella RodriguezOH	4	0	0	2	.000	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		63	20	146	.295	57	9	11	56	7	2	8	6	100

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 FDU · SYR 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 FDUSYR 5

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 6 FDUSYR 8

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 FDUSYR 3

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 2 FDUSYR 4

Bars above the line = Syracuse leads, below = FDU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

FDU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%10/22	56%10/18
2	64%9/14	0%0/10
3	56%9/16	10%1/10
4	56%9/16	10%1/10
5	43%9/21	18%2/11
6	60%6/10	62%13/21
All	53%52/99	34%27/80

Syracuse

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%10/16	58%11/19
2	100%10/10	33%5/15
3	90%9/10	40%6/15
4	82%9/11	36%5/14
5	60%9/15	40%6/15
6	33%6/18	67%14/21
All	66%53/80	47%47/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

179 rallies

Rally log

#	FDU-SYR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.6
2	0-2	SYR	SYR×3	Ace	SYR server	aced Mila Samardzija	+0.5
3	0-3	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Angela Marchetto		+0.4
4	1-3	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Keila Gabriel	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+0.3
5	1-4	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.3
6	2-4	SYR	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.3
7	2-5	FDU	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.3
8	2-6	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez		+0.3
9	2-7	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.3
10	3-7	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
11	3-8	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.2
12	4-8	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Bo Nijenhuis	blk Alessia Zampieri, Ava DeGuzman	+0.2
13	4-9	FDU	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.2
14	5-9	SYR	FDU×3	Serve err	SYR server		+0.2
15	6-9	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.4
16	7-9	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Emma Williams		+0.5
17	7-10	FDU	SYR	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.4
18	8-10	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Keila Gabriel	blk Mila Samardzija	+0.4
19	9-10	FDU	FDU	Ace	FDU server	aced Kiernan Stamey	+0.7
20	9-11	FDU	SYR×5	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.5
21	9-12	SYR	SYR×5	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+0.6
22	9-13	SYR	SYR×5	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.4
23	9-14	SYR	SYR×5	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+0.3
24	9-15	SYR	SYR×5	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Yuka Urano	+0.2
25	10-15	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Keila Gabriel		+0.1
26	10-16	FDU	SYR×3	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+0.2
27	10-17	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+0.1
28	10-18	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.1
29	11-18	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
30	11-19	FDU	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
31	11-20	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.0
32	11-21	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Emma Williams		+0.0
33	12-21	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.0
34	12-22	FDU	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.0
35	13-22	SYR	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.0
36	13-23	FDU	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.0
37	13-24	SYR	SYR	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis	set Charis Burge	+0.0
38	14-24	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
39	14-25	FDU	SYR	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis	set Charis Burge	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Abby Nicholson		+0.4
2	2-0	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Keila Gabriel		+0.5
3	2-1	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.3
4	3-1	SYR	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.4
5	3-2	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.4
6	4-2	SYR	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.4
7	4-3	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.4
8	5-3	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Nora Marginean	+0.5
9	5-4	FDU	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.4
10	6-4	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+0.5
11	6-5	FDU	SYR×8	Serve err	FDU server		+0.4
12	6-6	SYR	SYR×8	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+0.5
13	6-7	SYR	SYR×8	Ace	SYR server	aced Mila Samardzija	+0.5
14	6-8	SYR	SYR×8	Attack err	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	blk Keila Gabriel	+0.4
15	6-9	SYR	SYR×8	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis		+0.3
16	6-10	SYR	SYR×8	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.3
17	6-11	SYR	SYR×8	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.2
18	6-12	SYR	SYR×8	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis	set Charis Burge	+0.1
19	7-12	SYR	FDU×6	Serve err	SYR server		+0.1
20	8-12	FDU	FDU×6	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
21	9-12	FDU	FDU×6	Ace	FDU server	aced Team	+0.3
22	10-12	FDU	FDU×6	Ace	FDU server	aced Team	+0.4
23	11-12	FDU	FDU×6	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.5
24	12-12	FDU	FDU×6	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.6
25	12-13	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.4
26	13-13	SYR	FDU×5	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
27	14-13	FDU	FDU×5	Ace	FDU server	aced Team	+0.8
28	15-13	FDU	FDU×5	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.9
29	16-13	FDU	FDU×5	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.0
30	17-13	FDU	FDU×5	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+1.1
31	17-14	FDU	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.6
32	17-15	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Mila Samardzija	blk Charis Burge, Abby Nicholson	+0.9
33	18-15	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.9
34	18-16	FDU	SYR	Serve err	FDU server		+0.7
35	18-17	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Alessia Zampieri		+1.0
36	19-17	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+1.0
37	19-18	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.8
38	19-19	SYR	SYR	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+1.1
39	20-19	SYR	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+1.0
40	20-20	FDU	SYR	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman	blk Bo Nijenhuis, Charis Burge	+0.9
41	20-21	SYR	SYR	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis	set Charis Burge	+1.2
42	21-21	SYR	FDU	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Nora Marginean	+0.9
43	22-21	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Emma Williams	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+1.7
44	22-22	FDU	SYR×3	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+1.1
45	22-23	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+1.6
46	22-24	SYR	SYR×3	Ace	SYR server	aced Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+1.3
47	23-24	SYR	FDU×4	Serve err	SYR server		+0.6
48	24-24	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Keila Gabriel	blk Nora Marginean, Mila Samardzija	+1.9
49	25-24	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+2.6
50	26-24	FDU	FDU×4	Ace	FDU server	aced Bo Nijenhuis	+3.5
Set 3
1	0-1	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+1.3
2	1-1	SYR	FDU	Bad set	Charis Burge		+1.1
3	1-2	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.9
4	2-2	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Madeline Joyce	+1.1
5	2-3	FDU	SYR	Attack err	Mila Samardzija	blk Charis Burge, Abby Nicholson	+1.0
6	3-3	SYR	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
7	3-4	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+1.0
8	4-4	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+1.2
9	4-5	FDU	SYR	Serve err	FDU server		+1.1
10	5-5	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+1.2
11	6-5	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Emma Williams		+1.9
12	6-6	FDU	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+1.3
13	7-6	SYR	FDU×4	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Madeline Joyce	+1.5
14	8-6	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Ava DeGuzman		+2.3
15	9-6	FDU	FDU×4	Ace	FDU server	aced Kiernan Stamey	+2.6
16	10-6	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.8
17	10-7	FDU	SYR×3	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis	set Charis Burge	+1.7
18	10-8	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Angela Marchetto	blk Abby Nicholson, Kiernan Stamey	+2.4
19	10-9	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Yuka Urano	+2.3
20	11-9	SYR	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.1
21	11-10	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+1.7
22	11-11	SYR	SYR	Kill	Charis Burge	set Keila Gabriel	+2.3
23	12-11	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.0
24	12-12	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+1.7
25	13-12	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.1
26	13-13	FDU	SYR×3	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+1.8
27	13-14	SYR	SYR×3	Ace	SYR server	aced Ava DeGuzman	+2.3
28	13-15	SYR	SYR×3	Ace	SYR server	aced Mila Samardzija	+2.0
29	14-15	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Bo Nijenhuis		+1.5
30	14-16	FDU	SYR	Bad set	Nora Marginean		+1.5
31	15-16	SYR	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Nora Marginean	+1.6
32	15-17	FDU	SYR×3	Serve err	FDU server		+1.6
33	15-18	SYR	SYR×3	Ace	SYR server	aced Team	+1.7
34	15-19	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman	blk Keila Gabriel	+1.2
35	16-19	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+0.7
36	16-20	FDU	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.9
37	17-20	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.7
38	17-21	FDU	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Yuka Urano	+0.9
39	18-21	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.7
40	18-22	FDU	SYR	Kill	Charis Burge	set Bella Rodriguez	+0.9
41	19-22	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Emma Williams		+0.6
42	19-23	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.9
43	20-23	SYR	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
44	21-23	FDU	FDU	Ace	FDU server	aced Bella Rodriguez	+1.3
45	21-24	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+1.6
46	22-24	SYR	FDU×3	Attack err	Keila Gabriel	blk Alessia Zampieri, Ava DeGuzman	+0.7
47	23-24	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+2.5
48	24-24	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Keila Gabriel		+6.9
49	24-25	FDU	SYR	Serve err	FDU server		+5.3
50	24-26	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Angela Marchetto		+5.5
Set 4
1	0-1	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.7
2	1-1	SYR	FDU	Kill	Isabella Scarfone	set Ava DeGuzman	+0.8
3	1-2	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.7
4	1-3	SYR	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.8
5	2-3	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.7
6	3-3	FDU	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
7	3-4	FDU	SYR	Serve err	FDU server		+0.7
8	4-4	SYR	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.8
9	5-4	FDU	FDU	Kill	Isabella Scarfone	set Madeline Joyce	+1.3
10	5-5	FDU	SYR×4	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.9
11	5-6	SYR	SYR×4	Kill	Emma Williams	set Bella Rodriguez	+1.1
12	5-7	SYR	SYR×4	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.9
13	5-8	SYR	SYR×4	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.8
14	6-8	SYR	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.6
15	6-9	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.6
16	7-9	SYR	FDU	Bad set	Charis Burge		+0.6
17	7-10	FDU	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.6
18	7-11	SYR	SYR	Kill	Bo Nijenhuis		+0.7
19	8-11	SYR	FDU	Serve err	SYR server		+0.5
20	8-12	FDU	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.5
21	9-12	SYR	FDU	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey	blk Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez, Angela Marchetto	+0.5
22	9-13	FDU	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.5
23	10-13	SYR	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
24	10-14	FDU	SYR×3	Attack err	Alessia Zampieri		+0.5
25	10-15	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.5
26	10-16	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.4
27	11-16	SYR	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
28	11-17	FDU	SYR	Serve err	FDU server		+0.3
29	11-18	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Alessia Zampieri		+0.2
30	12-18	SYR	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.1
31	12-19	FDU	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.1
32	12-20	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Bo Nijenhuis	+0.1
33	12-21	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Emma Williams		+0.0
34	13-21	SYR	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.0
35	13-22	FDU	SYR	Kill	Emma Williams	set Charis Burge	+0.0
36	14-22	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Madeline Joyce	+0.0
37	14-23	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
38	14-24	SYR	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.0
39	15-24	SYR	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.0
40	15-25	FDU	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Abby Nicholson	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, FDU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.