Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ACCNX

Syracuse def. Virginia 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Virginia 64.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Syracuse beat visiting Virginia 3-1 (18-25, 26-24, 25-22, 25-19) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Syracuse's Kiernan Stamey led with 15 kills.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set1234Sets
UVA252422191
SYR182625253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Syracuse won from 13%.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Syracuse's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Virginia was RallyIQ's 65% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Virginia 22–20 Syracuse

    Syracuse's low point. Syracuse then won 6 of the next 8 rallies and the set 26–24.

    Syracuse 13% → 38%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Virginia 0–4 Syracuse

    Down 0–4, Virginia scored 5 straight to lead 5–4.

    Syracuse 82% → 64%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Virginia 8–9 Syracuse

    Syracuse scored 5 straight to stretch a 9–8 lead to 14–8.

    Syracuse 73% → 93%

Syracuse above 50Virginia belowMax swing 9.1%

VirginiaSyracuse

Sideout %
Virginia 51.6·Syracuse 53.8
Break %
Virginia 46.2·Syracuse 48.4
Hitting
Virginia .111·Syracuse .133
Longest run
Virginia 5·Syracuse 6

Keila Gabriel
3 kills inside the turning points, 9 K and .273 for the match (10.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Syracuse above 50 · Virginia below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.1% SYRrally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.1% to Syracuse — set 2, UVA 24-26 SYR. Attack error by Lauryn Bowie. SYR win probability 29% → 38%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UVA 63.9%36.1% SYR

Virginia wins

3-0
19.3%
3-1
24.5%
3-2
20.0%

Syracuse wins

3-0
7.5%
3-1
13.0%
3-2
15.6%
UVA break %
44.1% vs this opp
SYR break %
41.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lauryn BowieAttack error+9.1%

    Attack error by Lauryn Bowie

    Set 2 · UVA 24-26 SYR · SYR 29% → 38%

  2. 02
    Reese WuebkerAttack error+8.5%

    Attack error by Reese Wuebker

    Set 2 · UVA 24-25 SYR · SYR 21% → 29%

  3. 03
    Lauryn BowieKill+8.1%

    Kill by Lauryn Bowie (set by Katie Barrier)

    Set 2 · UVA 24-23 SYR · UVA 77% → 85%

  4. 04
    Reese WuebkerAttack error+6.7%

    Attack error by Reese Wuebker

    Set 2 · UVA 22-23 SYR · SYR 21% → 28%

  5. 05
    Lauryn BowieAttack error+5.9%

    Attack error by Lauryn Bowie

    Set 2 · UVA 24-24 SYR · SYR 15% → 21%

  6. 06
    Becca WightAttack error+5.5%

    Attack error by Becca Wight

    Set 3 · UVA 15-17 SYR · SYR 45% → 50%

  7. 07
    Keila GabrielKill+5.2%

    Kill by Keila Gabriel (set by Charis Burge)

    Set 2 · UVA 22-22 SYR · SYR 16% → 21%

  8. 08

    Becca Wight stuffed by Bo Nijenhuis & Kiernan Stamey

    Set 3 · UVA 15-18 SYR · SYR 50% → 56%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410840.0500239004214
411122.4551007004213
410733.09100021010.510.5
47114.4290000006310
46622.000200200428
4013-.33321101400001
4001.0006102300001
4000–002200000
4000–101710000
32415-.133000001013
3001.0001422500002
1012-.50000000010.50.5
Team totals4629153.11145687151201190
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415952.115111183111.517.5
411527.2220000002112
48940-.0251131300009
4409.444100000426
4205.4004111140010.53.5
2237-.14300010010.52.5
4001.0002231620002
39322.27300030031.510.5
3002.000000600000
Team totals5129165.1334658716112794

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 UVA · SYR 6

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 UVASYR 4

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 5 UVASYR 6

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 UVASYR 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 5 UVASYR 5

Bars above the line = Syracuse leads, below = Virginia leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Virginia

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%7/13
25%2/8
2
58%7/12
53%8/15
3
47%7/15
36%4/11
4
86%6/7
30%3/10
5
40%6/15
25%2/8
6
33%4/12
60%9/15
All
50%37/74
42%28/67

Syracuse

SlotSideout %Break %
1
88%7/8
64%9/14
2
44%7/16
46%6/13
3
58%7/12
42%5/12
4
86%6/7
54%7/13
5
55%6/11
25%2/8
6
46%6/13
57%8/14
All
58%39/67
50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#UVA-SYRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SYRUVAKillElla Brodnerset Yuka Urano+1.7
22-0UVAUVAAceKatie Barrier+2.2
32-1UVASYRAttack errEmily Fowler+1.6
43-1SYRUVA×5KillEmily Fowlerset Lauryn Bowie+1.6
54-1UVA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.1
65-1UVAUVA×5Attack errKiernan Stamey+1.9
76-1UVAUVA×5AceVirginiaaced Kiernan Stamey+1.6
87-1UVAUVA×5KillReese Wuebkerset Olivia Siskin+1.4
97-2UVASYRServe errVirginia+0.9
108-2SYRUVAServe errSyracuse+1.0
118-3UVASYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+0.9
128-4SYRSYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.5
138-5SYRSYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Marie Laurio+1.8
149-5SYRUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Olivia Siskin+1.5
1510-5UVAUVAAttack errMarie Laurio+1.7
1610-6UVASYRKillCharis Burgeset Olivia Siskin+1.1
1710-7SYRSYRBlockedCaroline Langblk Bo Nijenhuis, Emma Williams+1.8
1811-7SYRUVAKillBecca Wightset Olivia Siskin+1.5
1911-8UVASYRKillBo Nijenhuisset Charis Burge+1.4
2011-9SYRSYRKillEmma Williamsset Charis Burge+2.3
2112-9SYRUVAServe errSyracuse+1.8
2213-9UVAUVAAceVirginiaaced Kiernan Stamey+2.2
2313-10UVASYRServe errVirginia+1.4
2413-11SYRSYRAceYuka Uranoaced Ella Brodner+2.4
2514-11SYRUVAServe errYuka Urano+2.0
2615-11UVAUVAKillElla Brodnerset Lauryn Bowie+2.3
2715-12UVASYRKillAbby Nicholsonset Yuka Urano+1.4
2816-12SYRUVA×4KillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+1.7
2917-12UVAUVA×4Attack errMarie Laurio+1.8
3018-12UVAUVA×4AceVirginiaaced Yuka Urano+1.3
3119-12UVAUVA×4KillEmily Fowlerset Olivia Siskin+0.8
3219-13UVASYR×4KillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+0.3
3319-14SYRSYR×4KillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+0.8
3419-15SYRSYR×4AceSyracuse+1.2
3519-16SYRSYR×4KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.8
3620-16SYRUVA×3KillElla Brodnerset Olivia Siskin+1.8
3721-16UVAUVA×3BlockedAbby Nicholsonblk Reese Wuebker, Emily Fowler+1.7
3822-16UVAUVA×3KillReese Wuebkerset Olivia Siskin+0.9
3922-17UVASYRAttack errBecca Wight+0.3
4023-17SYRUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Olivia Siskin+0.5
4124-17UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Ruby McDermott+0.2
4224-18UVASYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge·
4325-18SYRUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Olivia Siskin+0.1
Set 2
11-0UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+2.0
21-1UVASYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+1.5
32-1SYRUVABlockedKiernan Stameyblk Lauryn Bowie, Caroline Lang+1.5
43-1UVAUVABlockedAbby Nicholsonblk Lauryn Bowie, Emily Fowler+1.9
53-2UVASYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+1.4
64-2SYRUVAKillElla Brodnerset Katie Barrier+1.4
75-2UVAUVAKillElla Brodnerset Olivia Siskin+1.8
85-3UVASYR×6Serve errVirginia+1.3
95-4SYRSYR×6Attack errElla Brodner+2.0
105-5SYRSYR×6KillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+2.2
115-6SYRSYR×6Attack errElla Brodner+2.3
125-7SYRSYR×6KillEmma Williamsset Kiernan Stamey+2.4
135-8SYRSYR×6AceSyracuse+2.4
146-8SYRUVABlockedEmma Williamsblk Becca Wight+1.6
156-9UVASYRKillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+1.8
167-9SYRUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Olivia Siskin+1.6
177-10UVASYRKillBo Nijenhuisset Charis Burge+1.9
188-10SYRUVA×5Serve errSyracuse+1.6
199-10UVAUVA×5BlockedEmma Williamsblk Lauryn Bowie, Caroline Lang+2.5
2010-10UVAUVA×5AceVirginiaaced Kiernan Stamey+2.6
2111-10UVAUVA×5KillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+2.6
2212-10UVAUVA×5KillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+2.5
2312-11UVASYR×3KillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+1.8
2412-12SYRSYR×3Attack errLauryn Bowie+2.7
2512-13SYRSYR×3BlockedReese Wuebkerblk Bo Nijenhuis, Keila Gabriel+2.9
2613-13SYRUVAServe errSyracuse+2.1
2713-14UVASYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+2.3
2813-15SYRSYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+3.2
2914-15SYRUVA×3Serve errSyracuse+2.1
3015-15UVAUVA×3Attack errKeila Gabriel+3.1
3116-15UVAUVA×3Attack errMarie Laurio+3.2
3216-16UVASYR×3KillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+2.4
3316-17SYRSYR×3KillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+3.6
3416-18SYRSYR×3Attack errLauryn Bowie+3.7
3517-18SYRUVA×3Attack errKeila Gabriel+2.4
3618-18UVAUVA×3KillEmily Fowlerset Olivia Siskin+3.7
3719-18UVAUVA×3KillBecca Wightset Katie Barrier+3.9
3819-19UVASYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+2.9
3920-19SYRUVAAttack errKiernan Stamey+3.1
4020-20UVASYRAttack errBecca Wight+3.1
4121-20SYRUVAAttack errMarie Laurio+3.4
4222-20UVAUVAAttack errKiernan Stamey+4.4
4322-21UVASYR×3KillCharis Burgeset Bo Nijenhuis+2.6
4422-22SYRSYR×3KillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+5.2
4522-23SYRSYR×3Attack errReese Wuebker+6.7
4623-23SYRUVAAttack errMarie Laurio+4.7
4724-23UVAUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Katie Barrier+8.1
4824-24UVASYR×3Attack errLauryn Bowie+5.9
4924-25SYRSYR×3Attack errReese Wuebker+8.5
5024-26SYRSYR×3Attack errLauryn Bowie+9.1
Set 3
11-0SYRUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+2.3
21-1UVASYRKillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+2.3
32-1SYRUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+2.3
42-2UVASYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+2.4
53-2SYRUVAAttack errKiernan Stamey+2.4
64-2UVAUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Olivia Siskin+3.1
74-3UVASYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+2.3
85-3SYRUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Olivia Siskin+2.3
95-4UVASYRKillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+2.3
106-4SYRUVA×4Bad setKeila Gabriel+2.4
117-4UVAUVA×4KillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+3.1
128-4UVAUVA×4KillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+2.7
139-4UVAUVA×4Attack errKiernan Stamey+2.3
149-5UVASYRAttack errLauryn Bowie+1.5
1510-5SYRUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Katie Barrier+1.7
1610-6UVASYR×3KillBo Nijenhuisset Charis Burge+1.5
1710-7SYRSYR×3AceSyracuse+2.5
1810-8SYRSYR×3Attack errElla Brodner+3.0
1911-8SYRUVAServe errSyracuse+2.5
2011-9UVASYR×3KillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+2.3
2111-10SYRSYR×3Attack errReese Wuebker+3.7
2211-11SYRSYR×3Attack errElla Brodner+4.1
2312-11SYRUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+3.1
2413-11UVAUVAAttack errKiernan Stamey+4.1
2513-12UVASYRKillMarie Laurioset Yuka Urano+2.9
2613-13SYRSYRAttack errElla Brodner+4.5
2714-13SYRUVAServe errSyracuse+3.4
2814-14UVASYRServe errVirginia+3.4
2914-15SYRSYRKillBo Nijenhuisset Charis Burge+5.1
3015-15SYRUVAAttack errMarie Laurio+3.6
3115-16UVASYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+4.0
3215-17SYRSYR×3Attack errBecca Wight+5.5
3315-18SYRSYR×3BlockedBecca Wightblk Bo Nijenhuis, Kiernan Stamey+5.2
3416-18SYRUVAKillCaroline Langset Olivia Siskin+3.1
3516-19UVASYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+4.0
3616-20SYRSYRBlockedReese Wuebkerblk Bo Nijenhuis, Keila Gabriel+4.5
3717-20SYRUVAKillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+2.2
3818-20UVAUVAAceVirginiaaced Yuka Urano+4.3
3918-21UVASYRServe errVirginia+4.4
4019-21SYRUVABlockedMarie Laurioblk Caroline Lang, Lauryn Bowie+3.1
4119-22UVASYRKillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+4.7
4220-22SYRUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+3.0
4320-23UVASYRKillAbby Nicholsonset Charis Burge+4.9
4420-24SYRSYRBad setElla Brodner+3.9
4521-24SYRUVAAttack errMarie Laurio+0.8
4622-24UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Katie Barrier+2.6
4722-25UVASYRKillKiernan Stameyset Reese Wuebker+4.7
Set 4
10-1UVASYR×4KillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+2.8
20-2SYRSYR×4Attack errElla Brodner+3.9
30-3SYRSYR×4BlockedLauryn Bowieblk Keila Gabriel, Abby Nicholson+3.9
40-4SYRSYR×4KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+3.8
51-4SYRUVA×5KillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+2.5
62-4UVAUVA×5KillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+3.7
73-4UVAUVA×5KillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+3.9
84-4UVAUVA×5BlockedKeila Gabrielblk Caroline Lang, Reese Wuebker+4.0
95-4UVAUVA×5Attack errAbby Nicholson+4.0
105-5UVASYRServe errVirginia+3.0
115-6SYRSYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+4.3
126-6SYRUVABlockedMarie Laurioblk Caroline Lang, Reese Wuebker+3.0
136-7UVASYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+3.2
146-8SYRSYRKillAbby Nicholson+4.5
157-8SYRUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+3.1
167-9UVASYRServe errVirginia+3.4
178-9SYRUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+3.2
188-10UVASYR×5KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+3.6
198-11SYRSYR×5KillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+4.7
208-12SYRSYR×5AceCharis Burgeaced Ruby McDermott+4.4
218-13SYRSYR×5BlockedHannah Scottblk Kiernan Stamey+3.9
228-14SYRSYR×5KillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+3.3
239-14SYRUVAKillElla Brodnerset Emily Fowler+1.8
2410-14UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+3.1
2510-15UVASYR×3KillKiernan Stameyset Charis Burge+3.0
2610-16SYRSYR×3Attack errElla Brodner+3.2
2710-17SYRSYR×3Attack errReese Wuebker+2.4
2811-17SYRUVABlockedKiernan Stameyblk Caroline Lang, Sarah Brodner+1.1
2911-18UVASYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+1.7
3012-18SYRUVAKillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+1.0
3113-18UVAUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Katie Barrier+2.0
3213-19UVASYRKillKeila Gabrielset Charis Burge+2.2
3314-19SYRUVAKillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+1.3
3414-20UVASYRBlockedReese Wuebkerblk Charis Burge, Abby Nicholson+2.0
3515-20SYRUVABlockedAbby Nicholsonblk Emily Fowler, Reese Wuebker+1.1
3616-20UVAUVAAttack errKiernan Stamey+2.4
3716-21UVASYRAttack errReese Wuebker+2.8
3817-21SYRUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+1.5
3918-21UVAUVAAttack errKiernan Stamey+3.3
4018-22UVASYRServe errVirginia+3.9
4118-23SYRSYRKillKiernan Stameyset Yuka Urano+3.1
4219-23SYRUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+0.9
4319-24UVASYRKillMarie Laurioset Charis Burge+1.8
4419-25SYRSYRAttack errSarah Brodner+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Virginia first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).