Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026

Winthrop def. Radford 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Winthrop 65.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Winthrop won at Radford 3-1 (28-26, 19-25, 25-15, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Winthrop's Paige Bennett led with 17 kills, and Addison Torain added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set1234Sets
WINTHR281925253
RADFRD262515211

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Winthrop trailed 8–13 in the first and took that set, dropped the second, and won the match 3–1.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Winthrop's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Winthrop at 65%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Winthrop 25–26 Radford

    3 straight Winthrop kills turned a 25–26 deficit into a 28–26 lead.

    Winthrop 54% → 79%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Winthrop 17–15 Radford

    4 straight Radford kills turned a 15–17 deficit into a 19–17 lead.

    Winthrop 89% → 70%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Winthrop 21–21 Radford

    Winthrop won 4 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–21 and win the match 3–1.

    Winthrop 81% → >99%

Radford above 50Winthrop belowMax swing 9.8%

WinthropRadford

Sideout %
Winthrop 62.5·Radford 56.3
Break %
Winthrop 43.8·Radford 37.5
Hitting
Winthrop .237·Radford .285
Longest run
Winthrop 5·Radford 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Radford above 50 · Winthrop below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.8% RADFRDrally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.8% to Radford — set 1, WINTHR 25-26 RADFRD. Kill by Macie Potter (set by Lea Gage). RADFRD win probability 36% → 46%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WINTHR 65.9%34.1% RADFRD

Winthrop wins

3-0
20.6%
3-1
25.3%
3-2
20.0%

Radford wins

3-0
6.9%
3-1
12.2%
3-2
15.0%
WINTHR break %
42.7% vs this opp
RADFRD break %
39.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Macie PotterKill+9.8%

    Kill by Macie Potter (set by Lea Gage)

    Set 1 · WINTHR 25-26 RADFRD · RADFRD 36% → 46%

  2. 02
    Reece RhoadsKill+9.4%

    Kill by Reece Rhoads (set by Lexi Thatcher)

    Set 1 · WINTHR 27-26 RADFRD · WINTHR 61% → 71%

  3. 03

    Paige Bennett stuffed by Aubrey Hatch & Maja Bochenek

    Set 1 · WINTHR 24-24 RADFRD · RADFRD 27% → 36%

  4. 04
    Reece RhoadsKill+8.7%

    Kill by Reece Rhoads (set by Lexi Thatcher)

    Set 1 · WINTHR 28-26 RADFRD · WINTHR 71% → 79%

  5. 05
    Paige BennettKill+7.5%

    Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Lexi Thatcher)

    Set 1 · WINTHR 23-22 RADFRD · WINTHR 62% → 69%

  6. 06

    Kill by Giselle Little (set by Lexi Thatcher)

    Set 1 · WINTHR 26-26 RADFRD · WINTHR 54% → 61%

  7. 07
    Paige BennettKill+7.0%

    Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Alyssa Cadavid)

    Set 4 · WINTHR 23-21 RADFRD · WINTHR 87% → 94%

  8. 08
    Paige BennettKill+6.7%

    Kill by Paige Bennett (set by Lindsay Langner)

    Set 1 · WINTHR 24-22 RADFRD · WINTHR 69% → 76%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4171035.200021121031.520.5
410218.4440000014313
410327.2590001002111
46314.21401211010.57.5
4307.4294100800003
4000–100510000
410633.1210000000010
4000–5101600001
4000–1101000001
3000–000100000
1001.000000000000
1000–100000000
Team totals5624135.2374953544110697
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417124.66710010010.517.5
413433.27301410210115
49023.3910157104212
46416.125000100639
45315.13300000010.55.5
4203.6672412300003
44418.00020010031.55.5
4011-1.0004131910001
4001.0001601500000
4000–103000000
2003.00010000010.50.5
Team totals5617137.28549418475116987

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Winthrop vs Radford

Season series · Winthrop leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 WINTHR · RADFRD 4

Set 1

28-26

Longest run 3 WINTHRRADFRD 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 WINTHRRADFRD 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 5 WINTHRRADFRD 2

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 4 WINTHRRADFRD 4

Bars above the line = Radford leads, below = Winthrop leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Winthrop

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
18%2/11
2
83%10/12
39%7/18
3
60%9/15
57%12/21
4
60%9/15
40%6/15
5
57%8/14
56%10/18
6
57%8/14
38%5/13
All
63%55/88
44%42/96

Radford

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
47%8/17
2
52%11/21
21%3/14
3
53%9/17
23%3/13
4
38%8/21
44%7/16
5
89%8/9
33%4/12
6
64%7/11
50%8/16
All
56%54/96
38%33/88

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#WINTHR-RADFRDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1RADFRDRADFRDBlockedKeAra Bowenblk Taryn Roberts, Aubrey Hatch+2.4
21-1RADFRDWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
31-2WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+1.8
42-2RADFRDWINTHRKillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
53-2WINTHRWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lea Gage+2.4
63-3WINTHRRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Lea Gage+1.7
74-3RADFRDWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
84-4WINTHRRADFRDBlockedReece Rhoadsblk Maja Bochenek, Aubrey Hatch+1.8
95-4RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+1.8
105-5WINTHRRADFRDKillEla Shepherdset Alyssa Cadavid+1.8
116-5RADFRDWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+1.8
127-5WINTHRWINTHRAttack errMacie Potter+2.5
137-6WINTHRRADFRD×4KillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+1.7
147-7RADFRDRADFRD×4AceRadfordaced Teagan Sychterz+2.7
157-8RADFRDRADFRD×4KillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+2.9
167-9RADFRDRADFRD×4Attack errReece Rhoads+3.0
178-9RADFRDWINTHRKillTeagan Sychterzset Lexi Thatcher+2.0
188-10WINTHRRADFRD×4KillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+2.2
198-11RADFRDRADFRD×4KillAubrey Hatchset Mia Jannazzo+3.0
208-12RADFRDRADFRD×4Attack errKeAra Bowen+2.8
218-13RADFRDRADFRD×4AceRadford+2.5
229-13RADFRDWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.4
2310-13WINTHRWINTHR×3KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+2.4
2411-13WINTHRWINTHR×3BlockedAddison Cunnaginblk Paige Bennett, Giselle Little+2.8
2511-14WINTHRRADFRDServe errWinthrop+2.4
2611-15RADFRDRADFRDAttack errPaige Bennett+3.0
2712-15RADFRDWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
2812-16WINTHRRADFRDAttack errPaige Bennett+2.2
2913-16RADFRDWINTHR×3BlockedEla Shepherdblk Paige Bennett, Giselle Little+1.7
3014-16WINTHRWINTHR×3AceWinthropaced Aubrey Hatch+3.0
3115-16WINTHRWINTHR×3KillLexi Thatcher+3.5
3215-17WINTHRRADFRDKillEla Shepherdset Alyssa Cadavid+2.9
3316-17RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+2.6
3417-17WINTHRWINTHRAttack errEla Shepherd+4.1
3517-18WINTHRRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Alyssa Cadavid+3.2
3617-19RADFRDRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+4.6
3718-19RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+2.8
3818-20WINTHRRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+3.5
3919-20RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+2.9
4019-21WINTHRRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+3.8
4120-21RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+3.1
4221-21WINTHRWINTHRKillPaige Bennett+5.6
4321-22WINTHRRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+4.7
4422-22RADFRDWINTHR×3KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+4.5
4523-22WINTHRWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+7.5
4624-22WINTHRWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Lindsay Langner+6.7
4724-23WINTHRRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Lea Gage+2.6
4824-24RADFRDRADFRDBlockedPaige Bennettblk Aubrey Hatch, Maja Bochenek+9.2
4925-24RADFRDWINTHRKillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+6.6
5025-25WINTHRRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+6.6
5125-26RADFRDRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+9.8
5226-26RADFRDWINTHR×3KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+7.0
5327-26WINTHRWINTHR×3KillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+9.4
5428-26WINTHRWINTHR×3KillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+8.7
Set 2
11-0WINTHRWINTHRKillTeagan Sychterzset Lexi Thatcher+2.0
21-1WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+1.4
32-1RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+1.4
42-2WINTHRRADFRDServe errWinthrop+1.5
53-2RADFRDWINTHR×3KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+1.5
64-2WINTHRWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+2.0
75-2WINTHRWINTHR×3Attack errMaja Bochenek+1.9
85-3WINTHRRADFRD×3BlockedGiselle Littleblk Maja Bochenek, Aubrey Hatch+1.3
95-4RADFRDRADFRD×3AceRadfordaced Alyah Cadavid+2.0
105-5RADFRDRADFRD×3Attack errPaige Bennett+2.2
116-5RADFRDWINTHR×3Serve errRadford+1.6
127-5WINTHRWINTHR×3KillReece Rhoadsset Addison Torain+2.2
138-5WINTHRWINTHR×3KillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+2.0
148-6WINTHRRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Mia Jannazzo+1.3
159-6RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+1.4
169-7WINTHRRADFRD×4Attack errPaige Bennett+1.3
179-8RADFRDRADFRD×4BlockedTeagan Sychterzblk Macie Potter+2.2
189-9RADFRDRADFRD×4KillMacie Potterset Mia Jannazzo+2.5
199-10RADFRDRADFRD×4Attack errPaige Bennett+2.7
2010-10RADFRDWINTHRKillLexi Thatcher+1.8
2110-11WINTHRRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+2.0
2211-11RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+1.9
2311-12WINTHRRADFRDAttack errTeagan Sychterz+2.0
2412-12RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+2.0
2512-13WINTHRRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Lea Gage+2.1
2613-13RADFRDWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+2.0
2713-14WINTHRRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Alyssa Cadavid+2.2
2814-14RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+2.1
2914-15WINTHRRADFRD×4Serve errWinthrop+2.3
3014-16RADFRDRADFRD×4KillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+3.3
3114-17RADFRDRADFRD×4KillEla Shepherdset Rose Whitemountain+3.2
3214-18RADFRDRADFRD×4Attack errReece Rhoads+2.8
3315-18RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+1.4
3415-19WINTHRRADFRD×3KillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+2.0
3515-20RADFRDRADFRD×3KillTaryn Roberts+2.1
3615-21RADFRDRADFRD×3KillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+1.3
3716-21RADFRDWINTHRKillTeagan Sychterzset Cami Roberts+0.5
3817-21WINTHRWINTHRAttack errMacie Potter+1.1
3917-22WINTHRRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Lea Gage+1.3
4018-22RADFRDWINTHRBlockedTaryn Robertsblk Teagan Sychterz, KeAra Bowen+0.6
4118-23WINTHRRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Lea Gage+1.2
4219-23RADFRDWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+0.4
4319-24WINTHRRADFRDAttack errPaige Bennett+0.9
4419-25RADFRDRADFRDAttack errGiselle Little+0.3
Set 3
10-1RADFRDRADFRDAttack errKeAra Bowen+3.3
21-1RADFRDWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+2.3
32-1WINTHRWINTHRAceWinthropaced Mia Jannazzo+3.2
42-2WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+2.3
53-2RADFRDWINTHR×3KillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+2.3
64-2WINTHRWINTHR×3AceWinthropaced Macie Potter+3.2
75-2WINTHRWINTHR×3Attack errMia Jannazzo+3.0
85-3WINTHRRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Lea Gage+2.0
95-4RADFRDRADFRDKillEla Shepherdset Alyssa Cadavid+3.2
106-4RADFRDWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+2.3
116-5WINTHRRADFRDBlockedReece Rhoadsblk Ela Shepherd, Maja Bochenek+2.3
126-6RADFRDRADFRDAttack errReece Rhoads+3.6
137-6RADFRDWINTHR×5KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+2.6
148-6WINTHRWINTHR×5AceWinthrop+3.5
159-6WINTHRWINTHR×5Attack errMacie Potter+3.2
1610-6WINTHRWINTHR×5KillLexi Thatcherset Alyssa Cadavid+2.8
1711-6WINTHRWINTHR×5KillTeagan Sychterzset Lexi Thatcher+2.4
1811-7WINTHRRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Alyssa Cadavid+1.4
1912-7RADFRDWINTHRKillTeagan Sychterzset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
2012-8WINTHRRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Ela Shepherd+1.4
2113-8RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+1.7
2213-9WINTHRRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Lea Gage+1.4
2314-9RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+1.7
2414-10WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+1.4
2515-10RADFRDWINTHR×3KillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+1.7
2616-10WINTHRWINTHR×3Attack errAddison Cunnagin+1.8
2717-10WINTHRWINTHR×3Attack errMaja Bochenek+1.2
2817-11WINTHRRADFRDAttack errPaige Bennett+0.6
2918-11RADFRDWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+0.8
3019-11WINTHRWINTHRAceWinthropaced Macie Potter+0.7
3119-12WINTHRRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Mia Jannazzo+0.3
3219-13RADFRDRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Riley Greene+0.6
3320-13RADFRDWINTHR×4Serve errRadford+0.7
3421-13WINTHRWINTHR×4Attack errMacie Potter+0.5
3522-13WINTHRWINTHR×4KillTeagan Sychterzset Lexi Thatcher+0.2
3623-13WINTHRWINTHR×4Attack errEla Shepherd+0.1
3723-14WINTHRRADFRDBlockedTeagan Sychterzblk Riley Greene, Ela Shepherd·
3824-14RADFRDWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher·
3924-15WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid·
4025-15RADFRDWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher·
Set 4
10-1WINTHRRADFRDKillLea Gage+2.1
20-2RADFRDRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Mia Jannazzo+3.0
31-2RADFRDWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Alyah Cadavid+2.0
41-3WINTHRRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Lea Gage+2.2
52-3RADFRDWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+2.1
62-4WINTHRRADFRDKillAubrey Hatchset Alyssa Cadavid+2.3
72-5RADFRDRADFRDKillAddison Cunnaginset Addison Torain+3.2
83-5RADFRDWINTHRKillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+2.0
94-5WINTHRWINTHRBad setAlyssa Cadavid+3.1
104-6WINTHRRADFRDAttack errPaige Bennett+2.4
115-6RADFRDWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+2.2
125-7WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+2.5
136-7RADFRDWINTHR×4KillReece Rhoadsset Addison Torain+2.3
147-7WINTHRWINTHR×4KillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+3.3
158-7WINTHRWINTHR×4KillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+3.3
169-7WINTHRWINTHR×4KillKeAra Bowenset Addison Torain+3.2
179-8WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+2.2
1810-8RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+2.3
1910-9WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+2.3
2010-10RADFRDRADFRDAceRadfordaced Paige Bennett+3.6
2111-10RADFRDWINTHR×3KillPaige Bennettset Addison Torain+2.6
2212-10WINTHRWINTHR×3BlockedEla Shepherdblk Paige Bennett, Giselle Little+3.5
2313-10WINTHRWINTHR×3BlockedMaja Bochenekblk Giselle Little, KeAra Bowen+3.2
2413-11WINTHRRADFRDBlockedPaige Bennettblk Maja Bochenek, Ela Shepherd+2.1
2514-11RADFRDWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+2.3
2614-12WINTHRRADFRDKillMacie Potterset Alyssa Cadavid+2.1
2714-13RADFRDRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Alyssa Cadavid+3.6
2815-13RADFRDWINTHRKillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+2.8
2915-14WINTHRRADFRDBlockedReece Rhoadsblk Maja Bochenek, Addison Cunnagin+2.7
3016-14RADFRDWINTHRKillGiselle Littleset Lexi Thatcher+2.9
3116-15WINTHRRADFRDKillTaryn Robertsset Alyssa Cadavid+2.8
3217-15RADFRDWINTHRKillReece Rhoadsset Lexi Thatcher+3.1
3317-16WINTHRRADFRD×4KillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+2.9
3417-17RADFRDRADFRD×4KillAubrey Hatchset Taryn Roberts+4.8
3517-18RADFRDRADFRD×4KillTaryn Robertsset Ela Shepherd+5.4
3617-19RADFRDRADFRD×4KillTaryn Robertsset Lea Gage+5.6
3718-19RADFRDWINTHRKillKeAra Bowenset Lexi Thatcher+3.4
3819-19WINTHRWINTHRKillPaige Bennett+5.7
3919-20WINTHRRADFRDKillLea Gageset Lea Gage+4.6
4020-20RADFRDWINTHRServe errRadford+4.3
4121-20WINTHRWINTHRAttack errMaja Bochenek+6.7
4221-21WINTHRRADFRDKillMaja Bochenekset Lea Gage+4.7
4322-21RADFRDWINTHR×4Serve errRadford+5.4
4423-21WINTHRWINTHR×4KillPaige Bennettset Alyssa Cadavid+7.0
4524-21WINTHRWINTHR×4BlockedAddison Cunnaginblk Giselle Little+4.7
4625-21WINTHRWINTHR×4KillPaige Bennettset Lexi Thatcher+1.7

Score shown after each rally, Winthrop first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).