FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Butler def. Ohio 3–0

(25-22, 25-14, 25-10)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
OHIO	22	14	10	0
BUTLER	25	25	25	3

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BUTLER above 50 · OHIO below

Biggest swing: 7.2% to Butler — set 1, OHIO 22-24 BUTLER. Butler ace on Rowan Kelly. BUTLER win probability 65% → 72%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OHIO 41.0%59.0% BUTLER

Ohio wins

3-0

9.1%

3-1

15.0%

3-2

16.9%

Butler wins

3-0

16.7%

3-1

22.5%

3-2

19.8%

OHIO break %: 40.1% vs this opp
BUTLER break %: 41.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
BUTLER serverAce+7.2%
Butler ace on Rowan Kelly
Set 1 · OHIO 22-24 BUTLER · BUTLER 65% → 72%
02
OHIO serverAce+6.4%
Ohio ace on Elise Ward
Set 1 · OHIO 22-22 BUTLER · OHIO 34% → 40%
03
Zoe McdonaldKill+5.4%
Kill by Zoe Mcdonald (set by Sarah Kempf)
Set 1 · OHIO 22-23 BUTLER · BUTLER 60% → 65%
04
Carly SlusserAttack error+4.8%
Carly Slusser stuffed by Carly Slusser & Sawyer Jones
Set 1 · OHIO 18-19 BUTLER · BUTLER 58% → 63%
05
Torre KildowAttack error+4.6%
Torre Kildow stuffed by Carly Slusser & Sawyer Jones
Set 1 · OHIO 18-20 BUTLER · BUTLER 63% → 67%
06
Chase LemmingAttack error+4.4%
Attack error by Chase Lemming
Set 1 · OHIO 17-16 BUTLER · OHIO 41% → 45%
07
Rose MahinAttack error+3.8%
Rose Mahin stuffed by Zoe Mcdonald & Sawyer Jones
Set 1 · OHIO 20-22 BUTLER · BUTLER 65% → 69%
08
Maria NixKill+3.8%
Kill by Maria Nix
Set 1 · OHIO 22-25 BUTLER · BUTLER 72% → 76%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ohioaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	5	7	22	-.091	2	1	2	6	0	0	0	6
4Torre KildowOH	3	6	5	18	.056	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
7Rose MahinOH	3	3	9	22	-.273	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	3
11Emily WaddellMB	3	1	1	11	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
18Lillie MeinhartS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
3Gentry BrownOH	3	3	2	10	.100	0	4	2	9	0	0	0	7
15Sierra EvansMB	3	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Cienna LapsleyMB	3	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
10Rowan KellyS	3	0	1	3	-.333	12	0	1	2	1	1	1	1
21Brooklyn ColeMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Bryn JankeS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Caroline CurranL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
2Kendall HickeyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
22Lacy MarxL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	6	2	0	0	0
Team totals		24	27	100	-.030	24	5	9	37	8	1	1	46

Butlerhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Zoe McdonaldMB	3	6	1	14	.357	0	2	2	4	0	2	3	3.5	11.5
11Sawyer JonesOH	3	7	3	13	.308	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	9.5
16Elise WardOH	3	3	0	18	.167	0	2	2	7	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
13Carly SlusserMB	3	2	0	7	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	4.5
9Kaylee FinneganS	3	0	0	1	.000	11	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
18Marin ThaxtonDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	0
10Maria NixOH	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Chase LemmingOH	3	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Aesha VogtDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Jersey LoyerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	0	1
15Taylor WathenOH	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Ava HunterS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Ellery ReesMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Ellie BarkerOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Karen DutroMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Lucy GrayOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Raegan DurbinOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Sarah KempfS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	8	77	.260	24	8	9	36	5	2	16	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 OHIO · BUTLER 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 OHIOBUTLER 3

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 OHIOBUTLER 5

Set 3*

10-25

Longest run 3 OHIOBUTLER 6

Bars above the line = Butler leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%5/14	0%0/4
2	63%5/8	44%4/9
3	56%5/9	29%2/7
4	57%4/7	29%2/7
5	50%4/8	0%0/4
6	100%3/3	33%2/6
All	53%26/49	27%10/37

Butler

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%5/7	56%5/9
2	56%5/9	50%5/10
3	71%5/7	44%4/9
4	100%4/4	50%4/8
5	80%4/5	20%1/5
6	80%4/5	50%4/8
All	73%27/37	47%23/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

121 rallies

Rally log

#	OHIO-BUTLER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Bailey Blair	blk Carly Slusser, Sawyer Jones	+2.5
2	0-2	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones		+2.4
3	1-2	BUTLER	OHIO×3	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.6
4	2-2	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Elise Ward	+2.5
5	3-2	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced TEAM	+2.7
6	3-3	OHIO	BUTLER	Attack err	Rose Mahin	set Bailey Blair	+1.8
7	3-4	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+2.6
8	4-4	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.8
9	4-5	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe Mcdonald	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.9
10	4-6	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Maria Nix, Zoe Mcdonald	+2.6
11	5-6	BUTLER	OHIO	Attack err	Zoe Mcdonald	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.8
12	6-6	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Maria Nix	blk Rowan Kelly	+2.8
13	6-7	OHIO	BUTLER	Attack err	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.0
14	7-7	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.0
15	7-8	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+2.0
16	8-8	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.0
17	8-9	OHIO	BUTLER	Attack err	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+2.1
18	9-9	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+2.1
19	9-10	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Carly Slusser	+2.1
20	9-11	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+3.0
21	10-11	BUTLER	OHIO	Attack err	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.0
22	10-12	OHIO	BUTLER	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Carly Slusser, Sawyer Jones	+2.2
23	11-12	BUTLER	OHIO×3	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+2.1
24	12-12	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+3.3
25	13-12	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lacy Marx	+3.6
26	13-13	OHIO	BUTLER	Attack err	Rose Mahin	set Lillie Meinhart	+2.4
27	13-14	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Emily Waddell	blk Zoe Mcdonald	+3.6
28	14-14	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.5
29	14-15	OHIO	BUTLER	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.6
30	15-15	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+2.6
31	15-16	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+2.8
32	16-16	BUTLER	OHIO	Attack err	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+2.8
33	17-16	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+4.4
34	17-17	OHIO	BUTLER	Serve err	OHIO server		+2.9
35	18-17	BUTLER	OHIO	Attack err	Chase Lemming	set Kaylee Finnegan	+3.2
36	18-18	OHIO	BUTLER×3	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+3.1
37	18-19	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Carly Slusser	blk Carly Slusser, Sawyer Jones	+4.8
38	18-20	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Torre Kildow	blk Carly Slusser, Sawyer Jones	+4.6
39	19-20	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+2.8
40	19-21	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+3.5
41	20-21	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+2.9
42	20-22	OHIO	BUTLER	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Zoe Mcdonald, Sawyer Jones	+3.8
43	21-22	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+3.0
44	22-22	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Elise Ward	+6.4
45	22-23	OHIO	BUTLER×3	Kill	Zoe Mcdonald	set Sarah Kempf	+5.4
46	22-24	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Rowan Kelly	+7.2
47	22-25	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Maria Nix		+3.8
Set 2
1	0-1	OHIO	BUTLER×5	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.6
2	0-2	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Cienna Lapsley	blk Zoe Mcdonald	+2.2
3	0-3	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Torre Kildow	+2.1
4	0-4	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.9
5	0-5	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+1.7
6	1-5	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.0
7	2-5	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Marin Thaxton	+1.7
8	2-6	OHIO	BUTLER×3	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.4
9	2-7	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+1.7
10	2-8	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Cienna Lapsley	blk Elise Ward, Zoe Mcdonald	+1.4
11	3-8	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.8
12	3-9	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+1.0
13	3-10	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+1.1
14	4-10	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.6
15	4-11	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+0.8
16	5-11	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.6
17	5-12	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Sarah Kempf	+0.8
18	6-12	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.6
19	6-13	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.7
20	7-13	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.5
21	7-14	OHIO	BUTLER	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.7
22	8-14	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.5
23	9-14	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Marin Thaxton	+1.0
24	9-15	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe Mcdonald	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.0
25	10-15	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.7
26	10-16	OHIO	BUTLER	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.9
27	10-17	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe Mcdonald	set Sarah Kempf	+0.9
28	11-17	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.4
29	11-18	OHIO	BUTLER	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.6
30	11-19	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser		+0.5
31	12-19	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bailey Blair	+0.2
32	12-20	OHIO	BUTLER×5	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.3
33	12-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Lacy Marx	+0.2
34	12-22	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.1
35	12-23	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.0
36	12-24	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Torre Kildow		+0.0
37	13-24	BUTLER	OHIO	Serve err	BUTLER server		+0.0
38	14-24	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Cienna Lapsley	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
39	14-25	OHIO	BUTLER	Attack err	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+1.4
2	0-2	BUTLER	BUTLER	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.3
3	1-2	BUTLER	OHIO×3	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.9
4	2-2	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Sierra Evans	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.4
5	3-2	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+1.5
6	3-3	OHIO	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.0
7	4-3	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.0
8	4-4	OHIO	BUTLER×5	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.0
9	4-5	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+1.5
10	4-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+1.4
11	4-7	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+1.4
12	4-8	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+1.2
13	5-8	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow		+0.8
14	5-9	OHIO	BUTLER×3	Kill	Zoe Mcdonald	set Sarah Kempf	+0.9
15	5-10	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Caroline Curran	+1.1
16	5-11	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Zoe Mcdonald		+0.9
17	6-11	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.5
18	6-12	OHIO	BUTLER×4	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+0.6
19	6-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Caroline Curran	+0.6
20	6-14	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Lacy Marx	+0.5
21	6-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Maria Nix		+0.3
22	7-15	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
23	7-16	OHIO	BUTLER×3	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+0.2
24	7-17	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.2
25	7-18	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Rowan Kelly		+0.1
26	8-18	BUTLER	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Kendall Hickey	+0.0
27	9-18	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+0.1
28	9-19	OHIO	BUTLER×6	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Carly Slusser, Chase Lemming	+0.1
29	9-20	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+0.0
30	9-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Ace	BUTLER server	aced Kendall Hickey	+0.0
31	9-22	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.0
32	9-23	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.0
33	9-24	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
34	10-24	BUTLER	OHIO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
35	10-25	OHIO	BUTLER	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.