FinalWed, Sep 16, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

0:3

HomeHORIZON

IU Indy def. Butler 3–0

(25-21, 28-26, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUTLER	21	26	18	0
IUINDY	25	28	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IUINDY above 50 · BUTLER below

Biggest swing: 11.9% to IU Indy — set 2, BUTLER 26-28 IUINDY. Elise Ward stuffed by Jillian Tippmann & Chloe Macias. IUINDY win probability 71% → 83%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUTLER 61.3%38.7% IUINDY

Butler wins

3-0

17.9%

3-1

23.4%

3-2

20.0%

IU Indy wins

3-0

8.3%

3-1

14.0%

3-2

16.3%

BUTLER break %: 43.0% vs this opp
IUINDY break %: 40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Elise WardAttack error+11.9%
Elise Ward stuffed by Jillian Tippmann & Chloe Macias
Set 2 · BUTLER 26-28 IUINDY · IUINDY 71% → 83%
02
Chloe MaciasKill+11.3%
Kill by Chloe Macias (set by Grace Purichia)
Set 2 · BUTLER 26-27 IUINDY · IUINDY 59% → 71%
03
Jillian TippmannAttack error+8.7%
Attack error by Jillian Tippmann
Set 2 · BUTLER 23-22 IUINDY · BUTLER 38% → 47%
04
IUINDY serverService error+7.8%
IU Indy service error
Set 2 · BUTLER 24-23 IUINDY · BUTLER 41% → 48%
05
BUTLER serverService error+7.8%
Butler service error
Set 2 · BUTLER 24-24 IUINDY · IUINDY 52% → 59%
06
Raegan DurbinKill+7.8%
Kill by Raegan Durbin (set by Ava Hunter)
Set 2 · BUTLER 25-24 IUINDY · BUTLER 41% → 48%
07
BUTLER serverService error+7.8%
Butler service error
Set 2 · BUTLER 25-25 IUINDY · IUINDY 52% → 59%
08
Bailey SinishAttack error+7.8%
Bailey Sinish stuffed by Carly Slusser & Ava Hunter
Set 2 · BUTLER 26-25 IUINDY · BUTLER 41% → 48%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Butleraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Sawyer JonesOH	3	7	4	14	.214	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	9.5
16Elise WardOH	3	7	7	18	.000	2	2	3	2	0	0	0	7
13Carly SlusserMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	7
17Zoe McDonaldMB	3	6	3	16	.188	1	4	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
8Raegan DurbinOH	3	4	2	10	.200	1	0	3	3	0	0	0	4
9Kaylee FinneganS	3	0	0	0	–	15	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
10Maria NixOH	3	5	3	13	.154	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Ava HunterS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
5Jersey LoyerDS	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	10	2	0	0	0	0
3Chase LemmingOH	2	11	0	14	.786	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11
18Marin ThaxtonDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	19	94	.277	43	11	31	8	1	10	6	65

IU Indyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Jillian TippmannOPP	3	16	2	27	.519	1	3	5	4	0	4	2	21
14Bailey SinishOH	3	9	3	18	.333	0	1	2	2	1	2	2	12
24Chloe MaciasMB	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	7
2Grace PurichiaS	3	2	0	5	.400	36	3	0	9	0	0	0	5
15Amanda StephensMB	3	4	1	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Ninah MirandaOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
11Elle PattersonOH	3	5	2	15	.200	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
7Lexi GrissettS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
12Laura RoederL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	0
5Kate WhiteOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	10	86	.349	40	8	10	28	1	14	8	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 BUTLER · IUINDY 4

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 2 BUTLERIUINDY 4

Set 2

26-28

Longest run 4 BUTLERIUINDY 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 BUTLERIUINDY 4

Bars above the line = IU Indy leads, below = Butler leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Butler

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	18%2/11
2	57%8/14	20%2/10
3	57%8/14	43%6/14
4	58%7/12	33%4/12
5	78%7/9	36%4/11
6	78%7/9	22%2/9
All	59%45/76	30%20/67

IU Indy

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	50%7/14
2	80%8/10	43%6/14
3	47%8/17	43%6/14
4	89%8/9	50%8/16
5	64%7/11	22%2/9
6	88%7/8	22%2/9
All	70%47/67	41%31/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

143 rallies

Rally log

#	BUTLER-IUINDY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+1.8
2	0-2	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Elise Ward		+2.5
3	1-2	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Jersey Loyer	+1.7
4	1-3	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.9
5	1-4	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Elise Ward	blk Jillian Tippmann, Chloe Macias	+2.6
6	2-4	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.7
7	3-4	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Elle Patterson		+2.5
8	3-5	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
9	4-5	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.8
10	4-6	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.0
11	5-6	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.9
12	6-6	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Elle Patterson		+2.7
13	6-7	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.1
14	6-8	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Raegan Durbin		+2.9
15	7-8	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+2.0
16	7-9	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+2.2
17	8-9	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.0
18	9-9	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Chloe Macias	blk Carly Slusser, Sawyer Jones	+3.0
19	9-10	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+2.3
20	10-10	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.2
21	10-11	BUTLER	IUINDY×3	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.3
22	10-12	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+3.3
23	10-13	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Sawyer Jones	blk Elle Patterson, Chloe Macias	+3.2
24	11-13	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.0
25	12-13	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Jersey Loyer	+3.2
26	12-14	BUTLER	IUINDY×4	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+2.6
27	12-15	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+3.4
28	12-16	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Attack err	Elise Ward		+3.0
29	12-17	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Laura Roeder	+2.5
30	13-17	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.3
31	13-18	BUTLER	IUINDY	Attack err	Maria Nix		+1.8
32	14-18	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+1.2
33	15-18	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Zoe McDonald	+2.4
34	15-19	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.3
35	16-19	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+1.7
36	16-20	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+2.4
37	16-21	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Sawyer Jones		+2.3
38	17-21	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+0.9
39	17-22	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+1.5
40	18-22	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Raegan Durbin	+0.7
41	18-23	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+1.4
42	19-23	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+0.5
43	20-23	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+1.4
44	20-24	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
45	21-24	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	+0.6
46	21-25	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+1.4
Set 2
1	1-0	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.9
2	1-1	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
3	2-1	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.0
4	3-1	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	+2.7
5	3-2	BUTLER	IUINDY	Attack err	Elise Ward		+1.9
6	3-3	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Elise Ward		+2.8
7	4-3	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Jersey Loyer	+2.1
8	4-4	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.1
9	4-5	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Elise Ward	+3.1
10	5-5	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+2.2
11	5-6	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+2.3
12	6-6	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+2.2
13	7-6	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Bailey Sinish	blk Sawyer Jones, Carly Slusser	+3.1
14	7-7	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Grace Purichia	set Ninah Miranda	+2.3
15	8-7	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.3
16	8-8	BUTLER	IUINDY×4	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.3
17	8-9	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Attack err	Sawyer Jones	blk Bailey Sinish, Chloe Macias	+3.4
18	8-10	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Raegan Durbin	+3.5
19	8-11	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Attack err	Elise Ward		+3.4
20	9-11	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Jersey Loyer	+2.2
21	10-11	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Bailey Sinish	blk Sawyer Jones, Zoe McDonald	+3.4
22	10-12	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.7
23	11-12	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Kaylee Finnegan	+2.5
24	11-13	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.8
25	12-13	IUINDY	BUTLER×4	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+2.6
26	13-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Jersey Loyer	+3.9
27	14-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Elise Ward	+4.0
28	15-13	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+3.8
29	15-14	BUTLER	IUINDY×3	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+2.6
30	15-15	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+4.2
31	15-16	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Jersey Loyer	+4.6
32	16-16	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+3.2
33	17-16	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser		+4.6
34	17-17	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+3.4
35	18-17	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+3.5
36	18-18	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+3.6
37	19-18	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+3.8
38	19-19	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Grace Purichia	set Jillian Tippmann	+3.8
39	20-19	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+4.2
40	20-20	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+4.2
41	20-21	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Raegan Durbin	+6.7
42	21-21	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+4.6
43	21-22	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+5.5
44	22-22	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	+5.2
45	23-22	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+8.7
46	23-23	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+6.0
47	24-23	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+7.8
48	24-24	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+7.8
49	25-24	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Ava Hunter	+7.8
50	25-25	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+7.8
51	26-25	IUINDY	BUTLER	Attack err	Bailey Sinish	blk Carly Slusser, Ava Hunter	+7.8
52	26-26	BUTLER	IUINDY×3	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+7.8
53	26-27	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+11.3
54	26-28	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Elise Ward	blk Jillian Tippmann, Chloe Macias	+11.9
Set 3
1	0-1	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.6
2	1-1	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.5
3	1-2	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Chloe Macias	set Grace Purichia	+1.6
4	1-3	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Laura Roeder	+2.2
5	2-3	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.5
6	2-4	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.7
7	2-5	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Maria Nix	blk Jillian Tippmann, Amanda Stephens	+2.3
8	3-5	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+1.5
9	3-6	BUTLER	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+1.7
10	3-7	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+2.2
11	3-8	IUINDY	IUINDY×3	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Team	+2.0
12	4-8	IUINDY	BUTLER	Serve err	IUINDY server		+1.2
13	5-8	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Amanda Stephens	blk Carly Slusser, Maria Nix	+2.0
14	5-9	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+1.7
15	5-10	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Maria Nix	blk Bailey Sinish	+2.1
16	6-10	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+1.2
17	7-10	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming		+2.0
18	7-11	BUTLER	IUINDY	Serve err	BUTLER server		+1.7
19	8-11	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Jersey Loyer	+1.4
20	9-11	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Elise Ward	+2.3
21	9-12	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+1.9
22	9-13	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.5
23	10-13	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Sawyer Jones	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.5
24	11-13	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Chloe Macias	blk Sawyer Jones	+2.4
25	11-14	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+2.1
26	11-15	IUINDY	IUINDY	Attack err	Raegan Durbin	blk Jillian Tippmann, Chloe Macias	+2.6
27	12-15	IUINDY	BUTLER×3	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.5
28	13-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Jillian Tippmann		+2.5
29	14-15	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Jersey Loyer	+2.9
30	14-16	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.4
31	14-17	IUINDY	IUINDY	Kill	Amanda Stephens	set Grace Purichia	+3.2
32	15-17	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Ava Hunter	+1.9
33	15-18	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Jillian Tippmann	set Grace Purichia	+2.4
34	16-18	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+1.9
35	16-19	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Elle Patterson	set Grace Purichia	+2.5
36	17-19	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+1.9
37	17-20	BUTLER	IUINDY	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+2.6
38	17-21	IUINDY	IUINDY	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Raegan Durbin	+2.8
39	18-21	IUINDY	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Kaylee Finnegan	+1.3
40	18-22	BUTLER	IUINDY×4	Kill	Bailey Sinish	set Grace Purichia	+2.0
41	18-23	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Attack err	Sawyer Jones	blk Bailey Sinish, Chloe Macias	+1.6
42	18-24	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Elise Ward	+0.7
43	18-25	IUINDY	IUINDY×4	Ace	IUINDY server	aced Jersey Loyer	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Butler first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.