FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

HomeHORIZON

Elon def. Robert Morris 3–0

(25-20, 28-26, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ELON	25	28	25	3
ROBMOR	20	26	18	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ROBMOR above 50 · ELON below

Biggest swing: 10.9% to Elon — set 2, ELON 28-26 ROBMOR. Kill by Caroline Berlekamp (set by April Rice). ROBMOR win probability 25% → 14%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ELON 45.7%54.3% ROBMOR

Elon wins

3-0

10.8%

3-1

17.0%

3-2

18.0%

Robert Morris wins

3-0

14.4%

3-1

20.5%

3-2

19.4%

ELON break %: 40.6% vs this opp
ROBMOR break %: 41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Caroline BerlekampKill+10.9%
Kill by Caroline Berlekamp (set by April Rice)
Set 2 · ELON 28-26 ROBMOR · ELON 75% → 86%
02
Anna SewellAttack error+8.1%
Attack error by Anna Sewell
Set 2 · ELON 23-23 ROBMOR · ROBMOR 24% → 33%
03
Caroline BerlekampKill+7.4%
Kill by Caroline Berlekamp (set by April Rice)
Set 2 · ELON 24-23 ROBMOR · ELON 67% → 75%
04
Keira HornungKill+7.4%
Kill by Keira Hornung (set by Kenlee Barnard)
Set 2 · ELON 24-24 ROBMOR · ROBMOR 25% → 33%
05
Anna SewellKill+7.4%
Kill by Anna Sewell (set by April Rice)
Set 2 · ELON 25-24 ROBMOR · ELON 67% → 75%
06
Keira HornungKill+7.4%
Kill by Keira Hornung (set by Kenlee Barnard)
Set 2 · ELON 25-25 ROBMOR · ROBMOR 25% → 33%
07
Anna SewellKill+7.4%
Kill by Anna Sewell (set by April Rice)
Set 2 · ELON 26-25 ROBMOR · ELON 67% → 75%
08
ELON serverService error+7.4%
Elon service error
Set 2 · ELON 26-26 ROBMOR · ROBMOR 25% → 33%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Elonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Cameron LanierOH	3	16	5	32	.344	0	1	1	9	2	0	1	0.5	17.5
11Caroline BerlekampMB	3	9	2	17	.412	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
5Alexandra SchultzOH	3	7	3	16	.250	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
17Catherine RuckerMB	3	6	0	9	.667	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	8
12Kayla PalmerS	3	0	0	1	.000	24	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
19Lindsey MurphyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
14Anna SewellOH	3	8	3	26	.192	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
9Shannon O'LaughlinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	5	0	0	0	0	3
7April RiceS	3	0	1	5	-.200	17	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
4Casey BrowerL/DS	3	0	1	2	-.500	1	0	1	15	2	0	0	0	0
16Cecilia ChristyMB	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	17	110	.264	43	5	4	43	4	2	10	7	78

Robert Morrishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Natalie StepanovichOH	3	11	3	26	.308	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	0	13
15Keira HornungMB	3	9	3	15	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
3Tia SchultzOH	3	5	6	17	-.059	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
5Addyson ButtsMB	3	3	4	15	-.067	0	0	4	0	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
1Kenlee BarnardS	3	0	1	6	-.167	31	1	1	11	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
8Maddie SiphakongvisethL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
13Lauren DeckerOH	3	10	2	33	.242	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
10Anahi AlvaradoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	11	0	0	0	0	1
12Cat SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	0
16Addison FowlerDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	19	112	.170	36	4	6	38	5	2	4	4	64

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 ELON · ROBMOR 3

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 6 ELONROBMOR 3

Set 2

28-26

Longest run 3 ELONROBMOR 3

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 6 ELONROBMOR 2

Bars above the line = Robert Morris leads, below = Elon leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Elon

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	53%8/15
2	89%8/9	33%4/12
3	70%7/10	61%11/18
4	50%7/14	46%6/13
5	70%7/10	22%2/9
6	55%6/11	33%3/9
All	67%44/66	45%34/76

Robert Morris

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	27%3/11
2	44%7/16	25%3/12
3	50%7/14	30%3/10
4	70%7/10	42%5/12
5	60%6/10	36%4/11
6	50%6/12	40%4/10
All	55%42/76	33%22/66

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

142 rallies

Rally log

#	ELON-ROBMOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+1.8
2	1-1	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.8
3	2-1	ROBMOR	ELON×3	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+1.8
4	3-1	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Addyson Butts		+2.6
5	4-1	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+2.6
6	4-2	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.7
7	5-2	ROBMOR	ELON	Attack err	Natalie Stepanovich		+1.8
8	6-2	ELON	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set April Rice	+2.5
9	6-3	ELON	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Anna Sewell		+1.5
10	6-4	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Caroline Berlekamp		+2.5
11	6-5	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Anahi Alvarado	+2.7
12	7-5	ROBMOR	ELON	Attack err	Addyson Butts	blk Anna Sewell	+2.0
13	7-6	ELON	ROBMOR	Attack err	April Rice	blk Addyson Butts	+1.9
14	8-6	ROBMOR	ELON	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+2.1
15	8-7	ELON	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.0
16	8-8	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Cameron Lanier	+3.0
17	8-9	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz		+3.1
18	9-9	ROBMOR	ELON×6	Kill	Anna Sewell	set Kayla Palmer	+2.2
19	10-9	ELON	ELON×6	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+3.2
20	11-9	ELON	ELON×6	Attack err	Tia Schultz		+3.2
21	12-9	ELON	ELON×6	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+3.1
22	13-9	ELON	ELON×6	Bad set	Kenlee Barnard		+2.8
23	14-9	ELON	ELON×6	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+2.4
24	14-10	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.3
25	15-10	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+1.7
26	15-11	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.3
27	16-11	ROBMOR	ELON	Attack err	Natalie Stepanovich		+1.7
28	16-12	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.2
29	16-13	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Cameron Lanier	blk Kenlee Barnard	+2.3
30	17-13	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set April Rice	+2.1
31	18-13	ELON	ELON	Attack err	Kenlee Barnard		+2.4
32	18-14	ELON	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.1
33	18-15	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Casey Brower	+2.3
34	18-16	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Casey Brower	+3.1
35	19-16	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+2.8
36	19-17	ELON	ROBMOR	Attack err	Anna Sewell		+2.2
37	20-17	ROBMOR	ELON	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+2.9
38	20-18	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Anahi Alvarado	+2.2
39	21-18	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+3.0
40	21-19	ELON	ROBMOR	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz		+2.1
41	22-19	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+3.1
42	23-19	ELON	ELON	Attack err	Keira Hornung	blk Caroline Berlekamp	+2.9
43	23-20	ELON	ROBMOR	Attack err	Natalie Stepanovich		+0.9
44	24-20	ROBMOR	ELON	Attack err	Addyson Butts		+1.8
45	25-20	ELON	ELON	Ace	ELON server	aced Maddie Siphakongviseth	+0.7
Set 2
1	0-1	ELON	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.8
2	0-2	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Cameron Lanier	blk Addyson Butts, Kenlee Barnard	+2.6
3	0-3	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Cameron Lanier		+2.5
4	1-3	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+1.6
5	1-4	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.8
6	2-4	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+1.7
7	3-4	ELON	ELON	Ace	ELON server	aced Cat Smith	+2.6
8	3-5	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Anahi Alvarado	+1.9
9	4-5	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+1.9
10	4-6	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.0
11	5-6	ROBMOR	ELON	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+1.9
12	5-7	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.0
13	5-8	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.8
14	6-8	ROBMOR	ELON	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+1.8
15	6-9	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Anahi Alvarado	+2.0
16	6-10	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Bad set	Alexandra Schultz		+2.6
17	7-10	ROBMOR	ELON×3	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+1.6
18	8-10	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Tia Schultz		+2.6
19	9-10	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+3.0
20	9-11	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.3
21	10-11	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Catherine Rucker	set Kayla Palmer	+2.2
22	10-12	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.4
23	11-12	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+2.2
24	11-13	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.4
25	12-13	ROBMOR	ELON×3	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+2.3
26	13-13	ELON	ELON×3	Ace	ELON server	aced Cat Smith	+3.7
27	14-13	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+3.9
28	14-14	ELON	ROBMOR	Attack err	Cameron Lanier		+2.7
29	15-14	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set April Rice	+2.9
30	16-14	ELON	ELON	Attack err	Keira Hornung		+4.1
31	16-15	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.6
32	17-15	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+3.0
33	17-16	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.7
34	17-17	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+4.5
35	18-17	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+3.4
36	18-18	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+3.3
37	19-18	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+3.7
38	19-19	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+3.6
39	20-19	ROBMOR	ELON×3	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+4.0
40	21-19	ELON	ELON×3	Bad set	Lauren Decker		+5.7
41	22-19	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Addyson Butts	blk Caroline Berlekamp, Cameron Lanier	+4.7
42	22-20	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+2.1
43	23-20	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set April Rice	+3.4
44	23-21	ELON	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Alexandra Schultz		+1.9
45	23-22	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Cameron Lanier		+4.9
46	23-23	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Anna Sewell		+8.1
47	24-23	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set April Rice	+7.4
48	24-24	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+7.4
49	25-24	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+7.4
50	25-25	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+7.4
51	26-25	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+7.4
52	26-26	ELON	ROBMOR	Serve err	ELON server		+7.4
53	27-26	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Casey Brower	+7.4
54	28-26	ELON	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set April Rice	+10.9
Set 3
1	0-1	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Anahi Alvarado	+1.9
2	1-1	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kayla Palmer	+1.3
3	2-1	ELON	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set Kayla Palmer	+1.9
4	2-2	ELON	ROBMOR	Attack err	Caroline Berlekamp		+1.3
5	3-2	ROBMOR	ELON×6	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+1.4
6	4-2	ELON	ELON×6	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+2.0
7	5-2	ELON	ELON×6	Ace	ELON server	aced Cat Smith	+1.9
8	6-2	ELON	ELON×6	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+1.8
9	7-2	ELON	ELON×6	Ace	ELON server	aced Cat Smith	+1.6
10	8-2	ELON	ELON×6	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+1.4
11	8-3	ELON	ROBMOR	Serve err	ELON server		+0.8
12	8-4	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+1.4
13	9-4	ROBMOR	ELON×3	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+1.2
14	10-4	ELON	ELON×3	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Anna Sewell	+1.4
15	11-4	ELON	ELON×3	Attack err	Keira Hornung		+1.1
16	11-5	ELON	ROBMOR	Serve err	ELON server		+0.6
17	12-5	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set Casey Brower	+0.8
18	12-6	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.6
19	12-7	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Catherine Rucker	+1.1
20	13-7	ROBMOR	ELON×4	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+1.0
21	14-7	ELON	ELON×4	Attack err	Tia Schultz	blk Catherine Rucker, Alexandra Schultz	+1.1
22	15-7	ELON	ELON×4	Kill	Anna Sewell		+0.8
23	16-7	ELON	ELON×4	Attack err	Tia Schultz	blk Catherine Rucker, Alexandra Schultz	+0.5
24	16-8	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
25	16-9	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Cameron Lanier	+0.4
26	17-9	ROBMOR	ELON	Attack err	Tia Schultz		+0.5
27	18-9	ELON	ELON	Kill	Alexandra Schultz	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.4
28	18-10	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
29	19-10	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+0.2
30	20-10	ELON	ELON	Kill	Caroline Berlekamp	set Kayla Palmer	+0.2
31	20-11	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Natalie Stepanovich	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
32	20-12	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
33	21-12	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set Kayla Palmer	+0.2
34	21-13	ELON	ROBMOR	Attack err	Cecilia Christy		+0.1
35	21-14	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Cecilia Christy	blk Lauren Decker	+0.2
36	22-14	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Cameron Lanier	set April Rice	+0.2
37	22-15	ELON	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Anahi Alvarado	+0.1
38	22-16	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
39	23-16	ROBMOR	ELON	Kill	Anna Sewell	set April Rice	+0.3
40	24-16	ELON	ELON	Attack err	Tia Schultz	blk Anna Sewell, Catherine Rucker	+0.1
41	24-17	ELON	ROBMOR	Serve err	ELON server		+0.0
42	24-18	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
43	25-18	ROBMOR	ELON	Attack err	Natalie Stepanovich	blk Catherine Rucker, April Rice	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Elon first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.