CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026
3:1
Rice logo

HomeAMERICAN

Louisville def. Rice 31

(25-14, 25-17, 24-26, 25-12)
Set1234Sets
LOUIS252524253
RICE141726121

RallyIQ model

Win probability

RICE above 50 · LOUIS below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100RICELOUISBiggest swing +0.8% RICE · S3 24-26rally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Rice — set 3, LOUIS 24-26 RICE. Kill by Sydnee Peterson (set by Kaia Mateo). RICE win probability 1%2%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LOUIS 98.6%1.4% RICE

Louisville wins

3-0
70.7%
3-1
23.1%
3-2
4.7%

Rice wins

3-0
0.1%
3-1
0.3%
3-2
0.9%
LOUIS break %
47.6% vs this opp
RICE break %
31.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01

    Kill by Sydnee Peterson (set by Kaia Mateo)

    Set 3 · LOUIS 24-26 RICE · RICE 1%2%

  2. 02
    RICE serverAce+0.5%

    Rice ace on Chloe Meester

    Set 3 · LOUIS 24-25 RICE · RICE 1%1%

  3. 03

    Kill by Hannah Sherman (set by Kaia Mateo)

    Set 4 · LOUIS 1-0 RICE · LOUIS 98%99%

  4. 04

    Kill by Kalyssa Blackshear (set by Nayelis Cabello)

    Set 4 · LOUIS 2-0 RICE · LOUIS 99%99%

  5. 05
    Ashlyn SeayKill+0.4%

    Kill by Ashlyn Seay (set by Mari Furoyama)

    Set 3 · LOUIS 20-22 RICE · RICE 1%1%

  6. 06

    Kill by Chloe Chicoine (set by Kamden Schrand)

    Set 3 · LOUIS 22-22 RICE · LOUIS 99%99%

  7. 07

    Kill by Nayelis Cabello (set by Amalia Simmons)

    Set 3 · LOUIS 23-22 RICE · LOUIS 99%100%

  8. 08
    Ellie SchneiderAttack error+0.3%

    Attack error by Ellie Schneider

    Set 4 · LOUIS 3-0 RICE · LOUIS 99%99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411625.2000316104216
414139.33311012100015
413437.24300010010.513.5
4608.75034201800219
2405.80000000111.55.5
1315.40000000010.53.5
4000032500003
4012-.500013200001
40008101400001
4000400310000
34311.091000001226
3203.66710000031.53.5
Team totals5716135.30448116613214999
Ricehome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49747.043002114132.511.5
410624.1670027000010
48629.06900020010.58.5
44115.200101202237
4203.6672010400003
1002.000000000000
45215.20000000111.56.5
4235-.20010031111.53.5
40001210200001
40002001400000
3000010720001
3000000110000
2000000120000
1000000000000
Team totals4025140.1073635541158969

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 LOUIS · RICE 3

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 8 LOUISRICE 2

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 4 LOUISRICE 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 LOUISRICE 3

Set 4

25-12

Longest run 6 LOUISRICE 3

Bars above the line = Rice leads, below = Louisville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Louisville

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
56%10/18
2
64%9/14
55%11/20
3
60%9/15
55%11/20
4
89%8/9
47%7/15
5
78%7/9
43%6/14
6
75%6/8
45%5/11
All
70%49/70
51%50/98

Rice

SlotSideout %Break %
1
31%9/29
33%4/12
2
90%9/10
31%4/13
3
38%9/24
40%6/15
4
57%8/14
31%4/13
5
54%7/13
22%2/9
6
75%6/8
13%1/8
All
49%48/98
30%21/70

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

168 rallies

Rally log

#LOUIS-RICESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0RICELOUISKillNayelis Cabelloset Payton Petersen+0.1
22-0LOUISLOUISAceLOUIS serveraced Jordan Hummel+0.2
32-1LOUISRICEKillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.1
43-1RICELOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Payton Petersen+0.1
53-2LOUISRICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.1
64-2RICELOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
74-3LOUISRICEKillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.1
85-3RICELOUIS×3Serve errRICE server+0.1
96-3LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errAshlyn Seay+0.2
107-3LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
117-4LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Kaia Mateo+0.1
128-4RICELOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
138-5LOUISRICEAttack errChloe Meester+0.1
149-5RICELOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
159-6LOUISRICEServe errLOUIS server+0.1
1610-6RICELOUIS×8Serve errRICE server+0.1
1711-6LOUISLOUIS×8AceLOUIS serveraced Team+0.1
1812-6LOUISLOUIS×8KillChloe Meesterset Chloe Chicoine+0.1
1913-6LOUISLOUIS×8KillAddison Makun+0.0
2014-6LOUISLOUIS×8KillChloe Meesterset Payton Petersen+0.0
2115-6LOUISLOUIS×8KillChloe Meesterset Payton Petersen+0.0
2216-6LOUISLOUIS×8KillKalyssa Blackshearset Payton Petersen+0.0
2317-6LOUISLOUIS×8Attack errKellen Dorotikblk Addison Makun, Chloe Meester+0.0
2417-7LOUISRICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.0
2518-7RICELOUISKillAddison Makunset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
2618-8LOUISRICEServe errLOUIS server+0.0
2718-9RICERICEKillKaia Mateoset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
2819-9RICELOUIS×3KillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
2920-9LOUISLOUIS×3AceLOUIS serveraced Campbell Love+0.0
3021-9LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errSydnee Peterson+0.0
3121-10LOUISRICEAttack errBlair Thiebaudblk Arissa Smith+0.0
3222-10RICELOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
3322-11LOUISRICEServe errLOUIS server+0.0
3423-11RICELOUISAttack errEllie Schneider+0.0
3523-12LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+0.0
3624-12RICELOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
3724-13LOUISRICEAttack errAddison Makun+0.0
3824-14RICERICEAttack errChloe Meesterblk Ellie Schneider, Sydnee Peterson+0.0
3925-14RICELOUISKillAddison Makunset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
Set 2
11-0LOUISLOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
22-0LOUISLOUISAceLOUIS serveraced Jordan Hummel+0.1
32-1LOUISRICEKillEllie Schneiderset Kaia Mateo+0.1
42-2RICERICEAceRICE serveraced Chloe Chicoine+0.1
53-2RICELOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
63-3LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Kaia Mateo+0.1
73-4RICERICEAttack errElli Streckerblk Arissa Smith+0.2
84-4RICELOUIS×4Attack errSydnee Peterson+0.1
95-4LOUISLOUIS×4KillChloe Chicoineset Kamden Schrand+0.2
106-4LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errSydnee Peterson+0.1
117-4LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errSydnee Peterson+0.1
127-5LOUISRICE×3Attack errElli Streckerblk Sydnee Peterson+0.1
137-6RICERICE×3KillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.1
147-7RICERICE×3KillKaia Mateo+0.2
158-7RICELOUISKillElli Streckerset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
168-8LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Arissa Smith+0.1
179-8RICELOUISServe errRICE server+0.1
1810-8LOUISLOUISAceLOUIS serveraced Ellie Schneider+0.2
1910-9LOUISRICEAttack errChloe Meester+0.1
2011-9RICELOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
2111-10LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Ellie Schneider+0.1
2211-11RICERICEKillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.2
2312-11RICELOUIS×3KillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
2413-11LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errEllie Schneider+0.2
2514-11LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Payton Petersen+0.1
2614-12LOUISRICEKillSydnee Peterson+0.1
2715-12RICELOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
2815-13LOUISRICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.1
2916-13RICELOUIS×4Attack errAshlyn Seayblk Elli Strecker+0.1
3017-13LOUISLOUIS×4AceLOUIS serveraced Campbell Love+0.1
3118-13LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errSydnee Petersonblk Elli Strecker, Nayelis Cabello+0.1
3219-13LOUISLOUIS×4KillNayelis Cabelloset Savannah Skopal+0.0
3319-14LOUISRICEKillArissa Smithset Savannah Skopal+0.0
3419-15RICERICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+0.0
3520-15RICELOUISKillNayelis Cabello+0.0
3620-16LOUISRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+0.0
3721-16RICELOUIS×3KillElli Streckerset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
3822-16LOUISLOUIS×3KillNayelis Cabelloset Hannah Sherman+0.0
3923-16LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errAmalia Simmons+0.0
4023-17LOUISRICEServe errLOUIS server+0.0
4124-17RICELOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
4225-17LOUISLOUISAttack errAshlyn Seayblk Kalyssa Blackshear, Hannah Sherman+0.0
Set 3
10-1RICERICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.1
20-2RICERICEKillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.1
31-2RICELOUISAttack errKellen Dorotik+0.1
42-2LOUISLOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Payton Petersen+0.1
52-3LOUISRICEBad setNayelis Cabello+0.1
62-4RICERICEAceRICE serveraced Kamden Schrand+0.1
73-4RICELOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Kamden Schrand+0.1
83-5LOUISRICEKillArissa Smithset Savannah Skopal+0.1
93-6RICERICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+0.1
104-6RICELOUISKillElli Streckerset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
114-7LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+0.1
124-8RICERICEAttack errChloe Meester+0.2
135-8RICELOUISKillElli Streckerset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
145-9LOUISRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+0.1
156-9RICELOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
166-10LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Kaia Mateo+0.1
177-10RICELOUISServe errRICE server+0.1
187-11LOUISRICEKillEllie Schneiderset Kaia Mateo+0.1
198-11RICELOUISAttack errKellen Dorotik+0.1
209-11LOUISLOUISAceLOUIS serveraced Sydnee Peterson+0.1
219-12LOUISRICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.1
229-13RICERICEServe errRICE server+0.2
2310-13RICELOUISAttack errSydnee Peterson+0.1
2410-14LOUISRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+0.1
2511-14RICELOUISServe errRICE server+0.1
2611-15LOUISRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+0.2
2712-15RICELOUISAttack errAshlyn Seay+0.1
2813-15LOUISLOUISAttack errAshlyn Seay+0.2
2913-16LOUISRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Mari Furoyama+0.2
3014-16RICELOUIS×4Attack errKellen Dorotikblk Elli Strecker, Chloe Meester+0.1
3115-16LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errAshlyn Seayblk Hannah Sherman, Nayelis Cabello+0.2
3216-16LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errKellen Dorotikblk Hannah Sherman, Chloe Meester+0.2
3317-16LOUISLOUIS×4Serve errLOUIS server+0.2
3417-17LOUISRICEAttack errChloe Meester+0.1
3517-18RICERICEKillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.2
3618-18RICELOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
3718-19LOUISRICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.2
3819-19RICELOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
3919-20LOUISRICEAttack errKalyssa Blackshear+0.2
4020-20RICELOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Kamden Schrand+0.2
4120-21LOUISRICEAttack errKalyssa Blackshear+0.2
4220-22RICERICEKillAshlyn Seayset Mari Furoyama+0.4
4321-22RICELOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.2
4422-22LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Kamden Schrand+0.3
4523-22LOUISLOUIS×3KillNayelis Cabelloset Amalia Simmons+0.3
4623-23LOUISRICEAttack errElli Strecker+0.2
4724-23RICELOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.2
4824-24LOUISRICE×3Attack errChloe Meesterblk Amalia Simmons+0.2
4924-25RICERICE×3AceRICE serveraced Chloe Meester+0.5
5024-26RICERICE×3KillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.8
Set 4
11-0LOUISLOUIS×6KillHannah Shermanset Kaia Mateo+0.5
22-0LOUISLOUIS×6KillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.4
33-0LOUISLOUIS×6Attack errEllie Schneider+0.3
44-0LOUISLOUIS×6AceLOUIS serveraced Sydnee Peterson+0.2
55-0LOUISLOUIS×6KillHannah Sherman+0.2
66-0LOUISLOUIS×6KillKalyssa Blackshearset Payton Petersen+0.1
76-1LOUISRICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.1
87-1RICELOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
97-2LOUISRICE×3Bad setNayelis Cabello+0.1
107-3RICERICE×3Attack errKalyssa Blackshearblk Amalia Simmons+0.2
117-4RICERICE×3Attack errKalyssa Blackshearblk Arissa Smith, Sydnee Peterson+0.2
128-4RICELOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.2
139-4LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.2
1410-4LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errArissa Smithblk Brooke Bultema+0.1
1510-5LOUISRICEKillArissa Smithset Savannah Skopal+0.1
1611-5RICELOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
1711-6LOUISRICEKillArissa Smithset Savannah Skopal+0.1
1812-6RICELOUISKillNayelis Cabello+0.1
1912-7LOUISRICEServe errLOUIS server+0.1
2013-7RICELOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
2114-7LOUISLOUISAttack errSydnee Peterson+0.1
2214-8LOUISRICEBad setPayton Petersen+0.0
2315-8RICELOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
2415-9LOUISRICEKillKellen Dorotikset Kaia Mateo+0.0
2515-10RICERICEKillSydnee Petersonset Kaia Mateo+0.1
2616-10RICELOUISAttack errKellen Dorotik+0.1
2717-10LOUISLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
2817-11LOUISRICEAttack errChloe Chicoineblk Arissa Smith, Kellen Dorotik+0.0
2918-11RICELOUIS×4KillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
3019-11LOUISLOUIS×4AceLOUIS serveraced Sydnee Peterson+0.0
3120-11LOUISLOUIS×4AceLOUIS serveraced Sydnee Peterson+0.0
3221-11LOUISLOUIS×4KillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
3321-12LOUISRICEServe errLOUIS server+0.0
3422-12RICELOUIS×4KillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
3523-12LOUISLOUIS×4AceLOUIS serveraced Declan Eastman+0.0
3624-12LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errAmalia Simmonsblk Chloe Meester, Brooke Bultema+0.0
3725-12LOUISLOUIS×4KillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Louisville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.