FinalWed, Sep 16, 2026

AwayACC

3:0

HomeCUSA

Louisville def. Western Ky. 3–0

(25-15, 25-19, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LOUIS	25	25	25	3
W KY	15	19	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

W KY above 50 · LOUIS below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Western Ky. — set 2, LOUIS 0-4 W KY. Kalyssa Blackshear stuffed by Sonja Laaksonen & Faith Young. W KY win probability 2% → 3%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LOUIS 97.3%2.7% W KY

Louisville wins

3-0

63.6%

3-1

26.7%

3-2

7.0%

Western Ky. wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.7%

3-2

1.7%

LOUIS break %: 47.9% vs this opp
W KY break %: 33.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kalyssa BlackshearAttack error+0.5%
Kalyssa Blackshear stuffed by Sonja Laaksonen & Faith Young
Set 2 · LOUIS 0-4 W KY · W KY 2% → 3%
02
Sonja LaaksonenKill+0.4%
Kill by Sonja Laaksonen
Set 2 · LOUIS 12-12 W KY · W KY 1% → 2%
03
Nayelis CabelloBad set+0.4%
Bad set by Nayelis Cabello
Set 2 · LOUIS 0-3 W KY · W KY 2% → 2%
04
Chloe ChicoineKill+0.4%
Kill by Chloe Chicoine (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 2 · LOUIS 2-4 W KY · LOUIS 98% → 98%
05
Kaira KnoxKill+0.4%
Kill by Kaira Knox
Set 2 · LOUIS 16-15 W KY · W KY 1% → 1%
06
Kalyssa BlackshearKill+0.3%
Kill by Kalyssa Blackshear (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 1 · LOUIS 1-0 W KY · LOUIS 97% → 98%
07
W KY serverAce+0.3%
Western Ky. ace on Payton Petersen
Set 2 · LOUIS 0-2 W KY · W KY 2% → 2%
08
Kaira KnoxAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Kaira Knox
Set 2 · LOUIS 3-4 W KY · LOUIS 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Louisvilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Chloe ChicoineOH	3	11	0	31	.355	0	3	3	4	1	0	0	14
44Brooke BultemaMB	3	8	2	14	.429	0	0	0	0	0	9	4.5	12.5
24Kalyssa BlackshearOPP	3	12	2	24	.417	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12
8Nayelis CabelloS	3	2	1	4	.250	30	0	1	4	0	9	4.5	6.5
4Addison MakunMB	3	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	1
3Kamden SchrandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
2Chloe MeesterOH	3	4	3	17	.059	0	1	0	4	0	2	1	6
21Payton PetersenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	2	11	1	0	0	3
5Amirra BaileyOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Hannah KennyS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	6	1	0	0	0
22Blair ThiebaudS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
10Elsi KarjanlahtiL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
12Jessica DrappL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	10	94	.287	34	7	14	42	4	22	11	75

Western Ky.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Faith YoungOH	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
5Kaira KnoxOH	3	5	4	19	.053	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	5
21Eliza McKnightOH	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	4
20Kate RushS	3	1	0	7	.143	20	2	4	7	0	1	0	1	4
8Cali FosterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
18Aubrey SearsOH	1	1	2	8	-.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
17Alivia SkidmoreOH	3	5	6	25	-.040	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	1	6
3Kennedy CherryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
2Tayler BaronL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	17	4	0	0	0	1
16Sonja LaaksonenOH	2	5	2	14	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
9Camila AdamsDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	18	95	.063	21	4	11	39	7	4	2	5	53

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 LOUIS · W KY 4

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 4 LOUISW KY 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 6 LOUISW KY 4

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 6 LOUISW KY 2

Bars above the line = Western Ky. leads, below = Louisville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Louisville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	57%8/14
2	75%6/8	63%10/16
3	67%6/9	54%7/13
4	86%6/7	65%11/17
5	60%6/10	0%0/6
6	63%5/8	38%3/8
All	67%36/54	53%39/74

Western Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	45%5/11
2	33%6/18	22%2/9
3	40%6/15	25%2/8
4	55%6/11	25%2/8
5	100%5/5	25%2/8
6	50%5/10	50%5/10
All	47%35/74	33%18/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	LOUIS-W KY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
2	1-1	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.3
3	2-1	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
4	3-1	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
5	3-2	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.2
6	4-2	W KY	LOUIS×3	Serve err	W KY server		+0.2
7	5-2	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
8	6-2	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Eliza McKnight	blk Brooke Bultema, Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
9	6-3	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.1
10	7-3	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
11	8-3	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
12	8-4	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
13	9-4	W KY	LOUIS	Serve err	W KY server		+0.1
14	9-5	LOUIS	W KY×3	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
15	9-6	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	W KY server	aced Chloe Chicoine	+0.2
16	9-7	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear		+0.3
17	10-7	W KY	LOUIS	Serve err	W KY server		+0.2
18	11-7	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
19	11-8	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.2
20	12-8	W KY	LOUIS	Serve err	W KY server		+0.2
21	12-9	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Aubrey Sears	set Kate Rush	+0.2
22	13-9	W KY	LOUIS	Serve err	W KY server		+0.2
23	13-10	LOUIS	W KY	Attack err	Brooke Bultema	blk Faith Young	+0.2
24	14-10	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
25	14-11	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.2
26	15-11	W KY	LOUIS×3	Bad set	Kate Rush		+0.2
27	16-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Kaira Knox	blk Brooke Bultema, Chloe Meester	+0.2
28	17-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Kennedy Cherry	+0.1
29	17-12	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
30	18-12	W KY	LOUIS	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+0.1
31	18-13	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.1
32	19-13	W KY	LOUIS	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore	blk Nayelis Cabello, Addison Makun	+0.1
33	20-13	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester		+0.1
34	20-14	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.0
35	21-14	W KY	LOUIS×4	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
36	22-14	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
37	23-14	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Aubrey Sears		+0.0
38	24-14	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Aubrey Sears		+0.0
39	24-15	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.0
40	25-15	W KY	LOUIS	Serve err	W KY server		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.3
2	0-2	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	W KY server	aced Payton Petersen	+0.3
3	0-3	W KY	W KY×4	Bad set	Nayelis Cabello		+0.4
4	0-4	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear	blk Sonja Laaksonen, Faith Young	+0.5
5	1-4	W KY	LOUIS×3	Serve err	W KY server		+0.2
6	2-4	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
7	3-4	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+0.3
8	3-5	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.3
9	4-5	W KY	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Kamden Schrand	+0.2
10	5-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
11	6-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
12	7-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Attack err	Eliza McKnight	blk Brooke Bultema, Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
13	8-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Hannah Kenny	+0.2
14	8-6	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.1
15	8-7	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.2
16	9-7	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
17	10-7	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Tayler Baron	+0.2
18	10-8	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.1
19	11-8	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
20	11-9	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
21	12-9	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
22	12-10	LOUIS	W KY×3	Kill	Kate Rush	set Tayler Baron	+0.1
23	12-11	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Addison Makun		+0.3
24	12-12	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen		+0.4
25	13-12	W KY	LOUIS×3	Serve err	W KY server		+0.3
26	14-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Team	+0.3
27	15-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear		+0.3
28	15-13	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.2
29	16-13	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
30	16-14	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.2
31	16-15	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox		+0.4
32	17-15	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
33	17-16	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.3
34	18-16	W KY	LOUIS×6	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
35	19-16	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+0.3
36	20-16	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Kill	Chloe Meester		+0.2
37	21-16	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore	blk Brooke Bultema, Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
38	22-16	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Kaira Knox	blk Chloe Meester, Brooke Bultema	+0.1
39	23-16	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Payton Petersen	+0.0
40	23-17	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
41	24-17	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
42	24-18	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
43	24-19	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Addison Makun	blk Kate Rush	+0.0
44	25-19	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Faith Young		+0.1
2	2-0	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
3	2-1	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.1
4	2-2	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+0.1
5	3-2	W KY	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
6	4-2	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Cali Foster	+0.1
7	5-2	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
8	5-3	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
9	5-4	W KY	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
10	6-4	W KY	LOUIS	Serve err	W KY server		+0.1
11	7-4	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen	blk Brooke Bultema, Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
12	7-5	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.1
13	7-6	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Brooke Bultema	blk Alivia Skidmore	+0.1
14	8-6	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
15	9-6	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Tayler Baron	+0.1
16	9-7	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.1
17	9-8	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Nayelis Cabello	blk Eliza McKnight	+0.1
18	10-8	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
19	10-9	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
20	10-10	W KY	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.1
21	11-10	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
22	12-10	LOUIS	LOUIS	Bad set	Faith Young		+0.1
23	12-11	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.1
24	13-11	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
25	13-12	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.1
26	14-12	W KY	LOUIS×6	Serve err	W KY server		+0.1
27	15-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Tayler Baron	+0.1
28	16-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+0.1
29	17-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Tayler Baron	+0.0
30	18-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+0.0
31	19-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Faith Young		+0.0
32	19-13	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.0
33	20-13	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
34	20-14	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
35	20-15	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Hannah Kenny	+0.0
36	21-15	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Payton Petersen	+0.0
37	22-15	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore	blk Brooke Bultema, Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
38	22-16	LOUIS	W KY	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.0
39	23-16	W KY	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
40	23-17	LOUIS	W KY	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
41	24-17	W KY	LOUIS	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore	blk Addison Makun, Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
42	24-18	LOUIS	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.0
43	24-19	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.0
44	25-19	W KY	LOUIS	Serve err	W KY server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Louisville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.