North Carolina vs Louisville Volleyball: Louisville Wins 3-0

FinalSun, Oct 18, 2026ACCNX

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Louisville 93.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 18, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Louisville beat visiting North Carolina 3-0 (29-27, 25-22, 25-23) on Sun, Oct 18, 2026. Louisville's Chloe Chicoine led with 14 kills, and Payton Petersen added 14 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 10:20 PM CT · final Oct 18

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNC	27	22	23	0
LOUIS	29	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Chloe Chicoine needed just 3 sets for 14 kills. Louisville swept North Carolina.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.6 points. North Carolina peaked at 9% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. RallyIQ gave Louisville 94% before first serve.

No single phase cleared the thresholds (8 pts of break %, .080 of hitting, a 5-point run).

Louisville above 50North Carolina belowMax swing 3.6%

North CarolinaLouisville

Hitting: North Carolina .175·Louisville .187
Aces: North Carolina 0·Louisville 2
Serve err: North Carolina 11·Louisville 6
Blocks: North Carolina 11·Louisville 143 BS · 16 BA vs 2 BS · 24 BA
Digs: North Carolina 59·Louisville 59

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Louisville above 50 · North Carolina below

Biggest swing: 3.6% to North Carolina — set 1, UNC 24-24 LOUIS. Chloe Meester stuffed by Chelsea Thorpe. LOUIS win probability 95% → 91%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UNC 8.5%91.5% LOUIS

North Carolina wins

3-0

1.1%

3-1

2.5%

3-2

4.9%

Louisville wins

3-0

47.2%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

13.0%

UNC break %: 35.6% vs this opp
LOUIS break %: 46.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Chelsea ThorpeBlock+3.6%
Chloe Meester stuffed by Chelsea Thorpe
Set 1 · UNC 24-24 LOUIS · UNC 5% → 9%
02
Nayelis Cabello&Brooke BultemaBlock+2.9%
Safi Hampton stuffed by Nayelis Cabello & Brooke Bultema
Set 1 · UNC 27-29 LOUIS · LOUIS 94% → 97%
03
Zoe BehrendtService error+2.6%
Service error by Zoe Behrendt
Set 1 · UNC 24-25 LOUIS · LOUIS 91% → 94%
04
Chloe MeesterAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Chloe Meester
Set 1 · UNC 25-25 LOUIS · UNC 6% → 9%
05
Chloe MeesterKill+2.6%
Kill by Chloe Meester (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 1 · UNC 25-26 LOUIS · LOUIS 91% → 94%
06
Jackie Taylor&Chelsea ThorpeBlock+2.6%
Chloe Chicoine stuffed by Jackie Taylor & Chelsea Thorpe
Set 1 · UNC 26-26 LOUIS · UNC 6% → 9%
07
Addison MakunKill+2.6%
Kill by Addison Makun (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 1 · UNC 26-27 LOUIS · LOUIS 91% → 94%
08
Chelsea ThorpeKill+2.6%
Kill by Chelsea Thorpe (set by Zoe Behrendt)
Set 1 · UNC 27-27 LOUIS · UNC 6% → 9%

Box score

Official NCAA box

North Carolinaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
77Chelsea ThorpeOPP	3	13	4	34	.265	0	0	4	0	1	3	2.5	15.5
22Safi HamptonOH	3	13	9	50	.080	0	1	7	1	1	0	1	14
3Lauren SchutterMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
21Jackie TaylorMB	3	2	2	11	.000	0	4	1	0	0	7	3.5	5.5
1Zoe BehrendtS	3	0	0	0	–	22	2	11	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
18Carly MarkhamL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
23Laynie SmithOPP	3	8	2	17	.353	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	9
24Addison WestOH	3	6	5	20	.050	0	0	13	1	0	2	1	7
6Julia BohlingerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	2	8	0	0	0	0	0
8Sienna CozzaS	3	0	0	0	–	20	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
20Lindley MillerOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		48	23	143	.175	47	11	59	2	3	16	11	72

Louisvillehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Chloe ChicoineOH	3	14	3	45	.244	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	14
44Brooke BultemaMB	3	7	5	15	.133	0	1	0	1	1	7	4.5	12.5
24Kalyssa BlackshearOPP	3	6	1	27	.185	2	0	0	7	0	4	2	8
4Addison MakunMB	3	4	2	12	.167	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	6
8Nayelis CabelloS	3	3	0	7	.429	32	0	0	11	0	6	3	6
3Kamden SchrandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	9	0	0	0	0
2Chloe MeesterOH	3	8	7	27	.037	1	0	2	2	1	3	2.5	10.5
6Hannah KennyS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	0	6	0	0	0	2
17Molly UrbanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
21Payton PetersenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	18	134	.187	40	2	6	59	2	24	14	79

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

North Carolina vs Louisville

Season series · Louisville leads 1-0

Sun, Oct 18, 2026North Carolina at Louisville · Louisville won 3-0This match
Wed, Nov 25, 2026Louisville at North CarolinaPreview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 UNC · LOUIS 3

Set 1

27-29

Longest run 3 UNCLOUIS 3

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 UNCLOUIS 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 UNCLOUIS 3

Bars above the line = Louisville leads, below = North Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%10/16	33%4/12
2	71%10/14	23%3/13
3	47%8/17	29%4/14
4	78%7/9	20%2/10
5	64%7/11	46%6/13
6	64%7/11	36%4/11
All	63%49/78	32%23/73

Louisville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%10/14	36%5/14
2	83%10/12	29%4/14
3	75%9/12	47%8/17
4	58%7/12	42%5/12
5	64%7/11	22%2/9
6	58%7/12	42%5/12
All	68%50/73	37%29/78

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

151 rallies

#	UNC-LOUIS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LOUIS	UNC	Serve err	Kamden Schrand		+0.6
2	1-1	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Jackie Taylor		+0.6
3	2-1	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.7
4	3-1	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+1.0
5	3-2	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
6	3-3	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.9
7	4-3	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Sienna Cozza	+0.7
8	4-4	UNC	LOUIS×3	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
9	4-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.8
10	4-6	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Addison West		+0.7
11	5-6	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
12	6-6	UNC	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.9
13	6-7	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Julia Bohlinger		+0.6
14	7-7	LOUIS	UNC	Blocked	Chloe Meester	blk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith	+0.7
15	8-7	UNC	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Julia Bohlinger	+1.1
16	8-8	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
17	8-9	LOUIS	LOUIS	Blocked	Chelsea Thorpe	blk Chloe Meester, Addison Makun	+1.0
18	9-9	LOUIS	UNC	Blocked	Kalyssa Blackshear	blk Jackie Taylor, Addison West	+0.7
19	9-10	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
20	9-11	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.9
21	10-11	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.6
22	10-12	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Jackie Taylor		+0.6
23	10-13	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.8
24	11-13	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Lindley Miller	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.5
25	11-14	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
26	12-14	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
27	12-15	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
28	13-15	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
29	13-16	UNC	LOUIS	Blocked	Laynie Smith	blk Chloe Meester	+0.6
30	14-16	LOUIS	UNC	Serve err	Molly Urban		+0.6
31	14-17	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Payton Petersen	+0.6
32	15-17	LOUIS	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.6
33	16-17	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Addison Makun		+1.2
34	17-17	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+1.6
35	17-18	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Kalyssa Blackshear	+1.1
36	18-18	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Julia Bohlinger	+1.2
37	18-19	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Addison Makun	+1.2
38	19-19	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+1.3
39	19-20	UNC	LOUIS	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Brooke Bultema, Kalyssa Blackshear	+1.3
40	19-21	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe		+1.7
41	20-21	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+1.0
42	20-22	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.2
43	21-22	LOUIS	UNC	Attack err	Brooke Bultema		+1.1
44	22-22	UNC	UNC	Blocked	Brooke Bultema	blk Jackie Taylor, Addison West	+2.5
45	22-23	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Julia Bohlinger		+2.0
46	22-24	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	Brooke Bultema	aced Addison West	+2.4
47	23-24	LOUIS	UNC	Blocked	Chloe Meester	blk Jackie Taylor, Zoe Behrendt	+0.9
48	24-24	UNC	UNC	Blocked	Chloe Meester	blk Chelsea Thorpe	+3.6
49	24-25	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Zoe Behrendt		+2.6
50	25-25	LOUIS	UNC	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+2.6
51	25-26	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.6
52	26-26	LOUIS	UNC	Blocked	Chloe Chicoine	blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe	+2.6
53	26-27	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.6
54	27-27	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+2.6
55	27-28	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Kamden Schrand	+2.6
56	27-29	LOUIS	LOUIS	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+2.9
Set 2
1	0-1	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
2	0-2	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.4
3	1-2	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.3
4	1-3	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
5	2-3	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
6	3-3	UNC	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.5
7	3-4	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
8	4-4	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.4
9	5-4	UNC	UNC	Blocked	Chloe Chicoine	blk Lauren Schutter	+0.7
10	5-5	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
11	6-5	LOUIS	UNC	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.5
12	7-5	UNC	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.8
13	7-6	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.5
14	7-7	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Jackie Taylor		+0.7
15	8-7	LOUIS	UNC×3	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
16	9-7	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.9
17	10-7	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Addison West		+1.0
18	10-8	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Zoe Behrendt		+0.6
19	11-8	LOUIS	UNC	Serve err	Kamden Schrand		+0.7
20	11-9	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
21	11-10	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.9
22	12-10	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.7
23	12-11	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
24	12-12	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Hannah Kenny	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.9
25	13-12	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.7
26	13-13	UNC	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
27	13-14	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Blocked	Lauren Schutter	blk Brooke Bultema	+0.8
28	13-15	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Blocked	Laynie Smith	blk Chloe Meester, Brooke Bultema	+0.7
29	14-15	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
30	14-16	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
31	15-16	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
32	16-16	UNC	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Sienna Cozza	+1.0
33	16-17	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Chloe Chicoine	+0.7
34	16-18	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Jackie Taylor		+0.9
35	17-18	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Sienna Cozza	+0.6
36	17-19	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
37	17-20	LOUIS	LOUIS	Blocked	Addison West	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.7
38	18-20	LOUIS	UNC	Serve err	Chloe Meester		+0.4
39	19-20	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.9
40	19-21	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.7
41	20-21	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.7
42	20-22	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Jackie Taylor		+0.8
43	20-23	LOUIS	LOUIS	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Brooke Bultema, Nayelis Cabello	+0.8
44	21-23	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
45	22-23	UNC	UNC	Blocked	Brooke Bultema	blk Safi Hampton	+1.0
46	22-24	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.0
47	22-25	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
Set 3
1	0-1	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
2	1-1	LOUIS	UNC×3	Serve err	Kamden Schrand		+0.2
3	2-1	UNC	UNC×3	Blocked	Addison Makun	blk Lauren Schutter, Chelsea Thorpe	+0.3
4	3-1	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
5	3-2	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Jackie Taylor		+0.2
6	4-2	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
7	4-3	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Sienna Cozza		+0.2
8	4-4	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.3
9	5-4	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
10	5-5	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Safi Hampton		+0.2
11	6-5	LOUIS	UNC	Attack err	Brooke Bultema		+0.2
12	6-6	UNC	LOUIS	Blocked	Addison West	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+0.2
13	6-7	LOUIS	LOUIS	Blocked	Addison West	blk Addison Makun, Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
14	7-7	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
15	7-8	UNC	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
16	7-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Addison West		+0.2
17	7-10	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Blocked	Chelsea Thorpe	blk Chloe Meester, Addison Makun	+0.2
18	8-10	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.1
19	8-11	UNC	LOUIS	Serve err	Carly Markham		+0.1
20	8-12	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe		+0.2
21	9-12	LOUIS	UNC	Serve err	Chloe Meester		+0.1
22	10-12	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
23	10-13	UNC	LOUIS	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Kalyssa Blackshear, Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
24	11-13	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.1
25	12-13	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.3
26	12-14	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
27	13-14	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
28	14-14	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Brooke Bultema		+0.4
29	14-15	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
30	15-15	LOUIS	UNC×3	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.3
31	16-15	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
32	17-15	UNC	UNC×3	Blocked	Chloe Meester	blk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith	+0.6
33	17-16	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Chloe Meester	+0.3
34	18-16	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.5
35	18-17	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Payton Petersen	+0.4
36	19-17	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.5
37	20-17	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.7
38	20-18	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
39	20-19	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
40	21-19	LOUIS	UNC	Blocked	Chloe Chicoine	blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe	+0.6
41	21-20	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
42	21-21	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.8
43	22-21	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.7
44	22-22	UNC	LOUIS×3	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Kalyssa Blackshear, Brooke Bultema	+0.6
45	22-23	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Ace	Hannah Kenny	aced Safi Hampton	+0.9
46	22-24	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Brooke Bultema, Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
47	23-24	LOUIS	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.3
48	23-25	UNC	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, North Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Louisville def. North Carolina 3–0

Chloe Chicoine needed just 3 sets for 14 kills. Louisville swept North Carolina.