FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeCAA

UNCW def. Le Moyne 3–0

(25-12, 25-17, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LEMOYN	12	17	14	0
UNCW	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UNCW above 50 · LEMOYN below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Le Moyne — set 2, LEMOYN 16-15 UNCW. Kill by Avery Stromberg (set by Skylar Jehlen). UNCW win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LEMOYN 1.0%99.0% UNCW

Le Moyne wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.7%

UNCW wins

3-0

73.7%

3-1

21.4%

3-2

3.9%

LEMOYN break %: 35.5% vs this opp
UNCW break %: 53.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Avery StrombergKill+0.3%
Kill by Avery Stromberg (set by Skylar Jehlen)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 16-15 UNCW · LEMOYN 1% → 1%
02
Nadia WasilewskiAttack error+0.3%
Nadia Wasilewski stuffed by Eiley Schneider & Branwyn Lupton
Set 2 · LEMOYN 12-9 UNCW · LEMOYN 1% → 1%
03
Branwyn LuptonKill+0.3%
Kill by Branwyn Lupton (set by Katie Barbour)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 13-10 UNCW · LEMOYN 1% → 1%
04
Elaina MurphyAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Elaina Murphy
Set 2 · LEMOYN 6-1 UNCW · LEMOYN 1% → 1%
05
Katie BarbourKill+0.2%
Kill by Katie Barbour (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 2 · LEMOYN 11-9 UNCW · LEMOYN 1% → 1%
06
Eiley SchneiderAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Eiley Schneider
Set 2 · LEMOYN 16-17 UNCW · UNCW 99% → 99%
07
UNCW serverAce+0.2%
UNCW ace on Team
Set 2 · LEMOYN 13-12 UNCW · UNCW 99% → 99%
08
Courtney GrahamAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Courtney Graham
Set 2 · LEMOYN 15-15 UNCW · LEMOYN 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Le Moyneaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Branwyn LuptonOH	3	6	6	23	.000	1	1	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
22Alise EvansMB	3	5	4	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	6
3Skylar JehlenS	3	1	0	2	.500	12	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	2
11Eiley SchneiderMB	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Jazmin RodriguezOH	1	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
18Gabriella Schemidt	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Avery Stromberg	3	7	2	15	.333	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	7
4Katie Barbour	3	1	1	3	.000	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Aubrey Kimball	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	2	7	0	0	0	0	1
13Cami ZajacL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
15Piper HooeyOH	2	2	1	7	.143	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
8Nina SalasOH	2	1	2	8	-.125	0	0	1	5	4	0	0	0	1
20Alana Surigao	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Amani Learry	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Haley BuescherL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	20	79	.051	22	3	9	19	10	1	2	2	43

UNCWhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Elaina MurphyOH	3	5	3	9	.222	2	6	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
18Lauren Lewis	3	9	1	13	.615	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
1Sam VandaOH	3	8	2	15	.400	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	9
14Courtney GrahamMB	3	2	2	9	.000	0	2	1	1	0	2	2	3	7
10Gaby ZovkoS	3	5	0	8	.625	21	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	6
20Anna HarneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
7Nadia WasilewskiOH	3	4	3	9	.111	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
5Morgan EsmieDS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	0	1	10	3	0	0	0	0
8Meredith KeeferOPP	1	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Maris GrantS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	11	66	.364	30	10	4	32	3	3	6	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 LEMOYN · UNCW 6

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 2 LEMOYNUNCW 6

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 LEMOYNUNCW 5

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 LEMOYNUNCW 5

Bars above the line = UNCW leads, below = Le Moyne leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Le Moyne

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%6/16	14%1/7
2	43%6/14	33%3/9
3	24%5/21	33%3/9
4	100%5/5	29%2/7
5	33%4/12	17%1/6
6	80%4/5	43%3/7
All	41%30/73	29%13/45

UNCW

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	50%5/10
2	67%6/9	63%10/16
3	100%5/5	67%10/15
4	71%5/7	67%10/15
5	56%5/9	38%3/8
6	100%4/4	56%5/9
All	71%32/45	59%43/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

118 rallies

Rally log

#	LEMOYN-UNCW	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	LEMOYN	UNCW	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.1
2	1-1	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Jazmin Rodriguez	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.1
3	1-2	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko		+0.1
4	2-2	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Alise Evans	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.1
5	2-3	LEMOYN	UNCW×3	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.1
6	2-4	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Jazmin Rodriguez		+0.1
7	2-5	UNCW	UNCW×3	Ace	UNCW server	aced Nina Salas	+0.1
8	3-5	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Alise Evans	set Katie Barbour	+0.1
9	4-5	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.1
10	4-6	LEMOYN	UNCW	Attack err	Nina Salas		+0.1
11	5-6	UNCW	LEMOYN	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.1
12	5-7	LEMOYN	UNCW	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.1
13	5-8	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Katie Barbour	blk Courtney Graham	+0.1
14	6-8	UNCW	LEMOYN	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.1
15	6-9	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
16	7-9	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.1
17	7-10	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
18	7-11	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
19	8-11	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Skylar Jehlen	set Aubrey Kimball	+0.1
20	8-12	LEMOYN	UNCW×4	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.1
21	8-13	UNCW	UNCW×4	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
22	8-14	UNCW	UNCW×4	Bad set	Skylar Jehlen		+0.1
23	8-15	UNCW	UNCW×4	Attack err	Jazmin Rodriguez		+0.0
24	9-15	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Alise Evans	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.0
25	9-16	LEMOYN	UNCW×6	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Elaina Murphy	+0.0
26	9-17	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
27	9-18	UNCW	UNCW×6	Ace	UNCW server	aced Nina Salas	+0.0
28	9-19	UNCW	UNCW×6	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Morgan Esmie	+0.0
29	9-20	UNCW	UNCW×6	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton		+0.0
30	9-21	UNCW	UNCW×6	Attack err	Jazmin Rodriguez		+0.0
31	10-21	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Katie Barbour	+0.0
32	10-22	LEMOYN	UNCW	Attack err	Alise Evans		+0.0
33	11-22	UNCW	LEMOYN	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
34	12-22	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.0
35	12-23	LEMOYN	UNCW×3	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
36	12-24	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Morgan Esmie	+0.0
37	12-25	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Nina Salas	blk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Nina Salas	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.1
2	2-0	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Bad set	Gaby Zovko		+0.1
3	2-1	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
4	3-1	UNCW	LEMOYN×4	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.1
5	4-1	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×4	Ace	LEMOYN server	aced Morgan Esmie	+0.2
6	5-1	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×4	Attack err	Courtney Graham	blk Alise Evans	+0.2
7	6-1	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×4	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.2
8	6-2	LEMOYN	UNCW×3	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.1
9	6-3	UNCW	UNCW×3	Ace	UNCW server	aced Avery Stromberg	+0.2
10	6-4	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Avery Stromberg		+0.2
11	7-4	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.2
12	7-5	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
13	8-5	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Katie Barbour	+0.2
14	8-6	LEMOYN	UNCW×4	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.1
15	8-7	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Avery Stromberg	+0.2
16	8-8	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Avery Stromberg	+0.2
17	8-9	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Cami Zajac	+0.1
18	9-9	UNCW	LEMOYN×4	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.1
19	10-9	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×4	Attack err	Lauren Lewis		+0.2
20	11-9	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×4	Kill	Katie Barbour	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
21	12-9	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×4	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski	blk Eiley Schneider, Branwyn Lupton	+0.3
22	12-10	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
23	13-10	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Katie Barbour	+0.3
24	13-11	LEMOYN	UNCW×5	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Morgan Esmie	+0.2
25	13-12	UNCW	UNCW×5	Ace	UNCW server	aced Team	+0.2
26	13-13	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton		+0.2
27	13-14	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton	blk Gaby Zovko, Courtney Graham	+0.2
28	13-15	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.1
29	14-15	UNCW	LEMOYN×3	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.1
30	15-15	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Attack err	Courtney Graham		+0.2
31	16-15	LEMOYN	LEMOYN×3	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.3
32	16-16	LEMOYN	UNCW×5	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
33	16-17	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Eiley Schneider		+0.2
34	16-18	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.2
35	16-19	UNCW	UNCW×5	Ace	UNCW server	aced Nina Salas	+0.1
36	16-20	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Avery Stromberg		+0.1
37	17-20	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.1
38	17-21	LEMOYN	UNCW×5	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Morgan Esmie	+0.1
39	17-22	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.1
40	17-23	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Elaina Murphy	+0.0
41	17-24	UNCW	UNCW×5	Ace	UNCW server	aced Nina Salas	+0.0
42	17-25	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	LEMOYN	UNCW	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.0
2	1-1	UNCW	LEMOYN	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
3	1-2	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
4	1-3	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton	blk Lauren Lewis, Elaina Murphy	+0.0
5	2-3	UNCW	LEMOYN	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+0.0
6	2-4	LEMOYN	UNCW×4	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
7	2-5	UNCW	UNCW×4	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton		+0.0
8	2-6	UNCW	UNCW×4	Attack err	Alise Evans		+0.0
9	2-7	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Avery Stromberg	+0.0
10	3-7	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.0
11	3-8	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
12	4-8	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Katie Barbour	+0.0
13	4-9	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
14	5-9	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
15	5-10	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Morgan Esmie	+0.0
16	6-10	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Piper Hooey	set Katie Barbour	+0.0
17	7-10	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Ace	LEMOYN server	aced Morgan Esmie	+0.0
18	7-11	LEMOYN	UNCW	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.0
19	7-12	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Sam Vanda	+0.0
20	8-12	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Piper Hooey	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.0
21	8-13	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
22	9-13	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Avery Stromberg	set Branwyn Lupton	+0.0
23	9-14	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis		+0.0
24	10-14	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Alise Evans	set Skylar Jehlen	+0.0
25	11-14	LEMOYN	LEMOYN	Ace	LEMOYN server	aced Morgan Esmie	+0.0
26	11-15	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
27	12-15	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Alise Evans	set Katie Barbour	+0.0
28	12-16	LEMOYN	UNCW×3	Serve err	LEMOYN server		+0.0
29	12-17	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Alise Evans	blk Courtney Graham	+0.0
30	12-18	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Alise Evans		+0.0
31	13-18	UNCW	LEMOYN	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+0.0
32	13-19	LEMOYN	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
33	13-20	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Piper Hooey		+0.0
34	14-20	UNCW	LEMOYN	Kill	Branwyn Lupton	set Katie Barbour	+0.0
35	14-21	LEMOYN	UNCW×5	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Morgan Esmie	+0.0
36	14-22	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Lauren Lewis		+0.0
37	14-23	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
38	14-24	UNCW	UNCW×5	Attack err	Branwyn Lupton	blk Lauren Lewis	+0.0
39	14-25	UNCW	UNCW×5	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Le Moyne first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.