FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

Harvard def. UNCW 3–0

Harvard won at UNCW 3-0 (25-21, 25-19, 25-15) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026. Harvard's Kayla Nwabueze led with 8 kills, and Sophia Wei added 12 digs.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set123Sets
HARV2525253
UNCW2119150

Win probability

UNCW above 50 · Harvard below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.8% HARVrally 130 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.8% to Harvard — set 1, HARV 23-20 UNCW. Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Sophia Wei). UNCW win probability 24% → 22%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HARV 67.1%32.9% UNCW

Harvard wins

3-0
21.4%
3-1
25.8%
3-2
20.0%

UNCW wins

3-0
6.5%
3-1
11.7%
3-2
14.7%
HARV break %
45.2% vs this opp
UNCW break %
41.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Sophia Wei)

    Set 1 · HARV 23-20 UNCW · HARV 76% → 78%

  2. 02
    Sofia RossiKill+2.7%

    Kill by Sofia Rossi (set by Sophia Wei)

    Set 1 · HARV 22-19 UNCW · HARV 75% → 77%

  3. 03
    UNCWAce+2.6%

    UNCW ace on Yvette Easton

    Set 2 · HARV 13-13 UNCW · UNCW 17% → 19%

  4. 04
    Sam VandaAttack error+2.6%

    Attack error by Sam Vanda

    Set 1 · HARV 21-18 UNCW · HARV 74% → 77%

  5. 05
    HarvardAce+2.6%

    Harvard ace on Morgan Esmie

    Set 2 · HARV 15-13 UNCW · HARV 83% → 85%

  6. 06
    Gaby ZovkoKill+2.5%

    Kill by Gaby Zovko (set by Sam Vanda)

    Set 1 · HARV 18-16 UNCW · UNCW 24% → 27%

  7. 07

    Kill by Masina Ogbechie (set by Catlin Shao)

    Set 1 · HARV 20-17 UNCW · HARV 74% → 76%

  8. 08

    Kill by Masina Ogbechie (set by Catlin Shao)

    Set 2 · HARV 13-11 UNCW · HARV 83% → 85%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38220.300100211019
37520.10000020031.58.5
37120.300103710007
3506.833001201227
3507.714100100216
3203.66715011200002
3509.55600000010.55.5
3000–1123400002
3000–220300002
3000–111020001
3000–400610000
Team totals39885.365365939528675
UNCWhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
37217.29401130010.58.5
33311.000010400004
3318.2502101500003
2247-.28600001010.52.5
2002.000000000000
1037-.429000100000
36819-.105322610008
3000–200610000
3000–101320000
27116.375000200007
23210.100000200003
2113.000000000001
1000–510100001
Team totals3225100.070325533502155

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 HARV · UNCW 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 HARVUNCW 4

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 3 HARVUNCW 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 8 HARVUNCW 3

Bars above the line = UNCW leads, below = Harvard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Harvard

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
25%2/8
2
100%8/8
0%0/8
3
73%8/11
68%17/25
4
54%7/13
53%8/15
5
86%6/7
33%3/9
6
63%5/8
38%3/8
All
74%42/57
45%33/73

UNCW

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
36%4/11
2
33%8/24
0%0/8
3
54%7/13
27%3/11
4
70%7/10
42%5/12
5
50%5/10
22%2/9
6
71%5/7
17%1/6
All
55%40/73
26%15/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#HARV-UNCWSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UNCWHARVKillSophia Weiset Kayla Nwabueze+1.6
21-1HARVUNCWServe errHarvard+1.7
32-1UNCWHARVAttack errNadia Wasilewski+1.7
43-1HARVHARVAceHarvardaced Meredith Keefer+2.1
53-2HARVUNCWBlockedAli Farquharblk Courtney Graham, Meredith Keefer+1.6
63-3UNCWUNCWAttack errAli Farquhar+2.3
74-3UNCWHARV×3BlockedNadia Wasilewskiblk Kayla Nwabueze+1.8
85-3HARVHARV×3KillKayla Nwabueze+2.2
96-3HARVHARV×3Attack errMeredith Keefer+2.0
106-4HARVUNCWServe errHarvard+1.5
116-5UNCWUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+2.2
127-5UNCWHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Catlin Shao+1.8
137-6HARVUNCWServe errHarvard+1.8
148-6UNCWHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.8
159-6HARVHARVBlockedElaina Murphyblk Masina Ogbechie, Ryleigh Patterson+2.2
169-7HARVUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Sam Vanda+1.6
1710-7UNCWHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+1.7
1811-7HARVHARVKillRiley Resmerset Sophia Wei+2.0
1911-8HARVUNCWAttack errAli Farquhar+1.4
2012-8UNCWHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+1.5
2112-9HARVUNCWAttack errAli Farquhar+1.4
2213-9UNCWHARV×4BlockedMeredith Keeferblk Ali Farquhar, Ryleigh Patterson+1.6
2314-9HARVHARV×4Attack errMeredith Keefer+1.7
2415-9HARVHARV×4Attack errCourtney Graham+1.3
2516-9HARVHARV×4Attack errNadia Wasilewski+0.9
2616-10HARVUNCW×3KillMeredith Keeferset Anna Harney+0.5
2716-11UNCWUNCW×3KillMeredith Keeferset Gaby Zovko+1.0
2816-12UNCWUNCW×3Attack errKayla Nwabueze+1.3
2917-12UNCWHARVAttack errCourtney Graham+1.3
3018-12HARVHARVAttack errMeredith Keefer+1.2
3118-13HARVUNCW×4KillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+0.7
3218-14UNCWUNCW×4AceUNCWaced Kayla Nwabueze+1.3
3318-15UNCWUNCW×4AceUNCWaced Sofia Rossi+1.8
3418-16UNCWUNCW×4KillGaby Zovkoset Sam Vanda+2.5
3519-16UNCWHARVServe errUNCW+2.4
3619-17HARVUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+2.0
3720-17UNCWHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+2.5
3820-18HARVUNCWServe errHarvard+2.0
3921-18UNCWHARVAttack errSam Vanda+2.6
4021-19HARVUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.0
4122-19UNCWHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+2.7
4222-20HARVUNCWServe errHarvard+1.9
4323-20UNCWHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+2.8
4424-20HARVHARVBad setGaby Zovko+2.1
4524-21HARVUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+0.5
4625-21UNCWHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+1.1
Set 2
10-1HARVUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+1.5
21-1UNCWHARVKillAli Farquharset Yvette Easton+1.4
31-2HARVUNCWServe errHarvard+1.5
42-2UNCWHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+1.5
52-3HARVUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.6
63-3UNCWHARVServe errUNCW+1.5
73-4HARVUNCWServe errHarvard+1.6
84-4UNCWHARVServe errUNCW+1.5
95-4HARVHARVBlockedGaby Zovkoblk Riley Resmer+2.0
105-5HARVUNCWKillElaina Murphyset Sam Vanda+1.6
116-5UNCWHARVKillSofia Rossiset Yvette Easton+1.6
127-5HARVHARVAttack errElaina Murphy+2.0
137-6HARVUNCW×3KillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+1.5
147-7UNCWUNCW×3KillElaina Murphyset Gaby Zovko+2.1
157-8UNCWUNCW×3AceUNCWaced Bridget Egan+2.3
168-8UNCWHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+1.7
179-8HARVHARVKillRyleigh Patterson+2.2
189-9HARVUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.8
1910-9UNCWHARVKillAli Farquharset Yvette Easton+1.8
2010-10HARVUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.8
2111-10UNCWHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+1.8
2211-11HARVUNCWKillSam Vandaset Gaby Zovko+1.9
2312-11UNCWHARVKillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+1.9
2413-11HARVHARVKillMasina Ogbechieset Catlin Shao+2.4
2513-12HARVUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.8
2613-13UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Yvette Easton+2.6
2714-13UNCWHARV×3KillMasina Ogbechieset Yvette Easton+2.1
2815-13HARVHARV×3AceHarvardaced Morgan Esmie+2.6
2916-13HARVHARV×3Attack errLauren Lewis+2.3
3016-14HARVUNCWKillGaby Zovkoset Morgan Esmie+1.6
3117-14UNCWHARVServe errUNCW+1.8
3217-15HARVUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+1.6
3318-15UNCWHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Catlin Shao+1.9
3418-16HARVUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+1.6
3519-16UNCWHARVKillAli Farquharset Ryleigh Patterson+2.0
3619-17HARVUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Gaby Zovko+1.7
3720-17UNCWHARVServe errUNCW+2.1
3821-17HARVHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Sophia Wei+2.0
3921-18HARVUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+1.1
4022-18UNCWHARV×3KillRiley Resmerset Sophia Wei+1.5
4123-18HARVHARV×3Attack errSam Vanda+1.1
4224-18HARVHARV×3AceHarvardaced Anna Harney+0.4
4324-19HARVUNCWAttack errKayla Nwabueze+0.1
4425-19UNCWHARVKillKayla Nwabuezeset Bridget Egan+0.2
Set 3
11-0UNCWHARVKillSofia Rossiset Sophia Wei+0.8
21-1HARVUNCWKillSam Vandaset Anna Harney+0.8
32-1UNCWHARV×8Attack errElaina Murphy+0.8
43-1HARVHARV×8Attack errSam Vanda+1.0
54-1HARVHARV×8KillKayla Nwabuezeset Jordan Shelor+1.0
65-1HARVHARV×8KillRiley Resmerset Sophia Wei+0.9
76-1HARVHARV×8Attack errLilly Sullivan+0.8
87-1HARVHARV×8BlockedSam Vandablk Ali Farquhar, Riley Resmer+0.6
98-1HARVHARV×8AceHarvardaced Sam Vanda+0.5
109-1HARVHARV×8KillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+0.4
119-2HARVUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Addi Vaughn+0.2
1210-2UNCWHARVKillSophia Weiset Sofia Rossi+0.3
1310-3HARVUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Addi Vaughn+0.2
1411-3UNCWHARVKillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao+0.3
1511-4HARVUNCWAttack errSofia Rossi+0.2
1611-5UNCWUNCWBad setCatlin Shao+0.4
1712-5UNCWHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao+0.4
1812-6HARVUNCWKillMacon Butlerset Addi Vaughn+0.3
1912-7UNCWUNCWAceUNCWaced Bridget Egan+0.5
2013-7UNCWHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Catlin Shao+0.5
2113-8HARVUNCW×3Serve errHarvard+0.4
2213-9UNCWUNCW×3KillLora Coleset Addi Vaughn+0.7
2313-10UNCWUNCW×3Attack errAli Farquhar+0.9
2414-10UNCWHARVKillRyleigh Pattersonset Sophia Wei+0.8
2514-11HARVUNCWKillLilly Sullivanset Addi Vaughn+0.7
2615-11UNCWHARV×5Attack errSam Vanda+0.8
2716-11HARVHARV×5Attack errSam Vanda+0.9
2817-11HARVHARV×5Attack errSam Vanda+0.6
2918-11HARVHARV×5BlockedSam Vandablk Ali Farquhar, Riley Resmer+0.4
3019-11HARVHARV×5KillAli Farquharset Jordan Shelor+0.3
3119-12HARVUNCWKillCourtney Grahamset Gaby Zovko+0.1
3220-12UNCWHARV×3KillAli Farquharset Sophia Wei+0.2
3321-12HARVHARV×3Attack errMacon Butler+0.1
3422-12HARVHARV×3AceHarvardaced Morgan Esmie·
3522-13HARVUNCWServe errHarvard·
3622-14UNCWUNCWKillMacon Butlerset Gaby Zovko·
3723-14UNCWHARVKillRiley Resmerset Catlin Shao·
3823-15HARVUNCWKillMacon Butlerset Gaby Zovko·
3924-15UNCWHARVKillSofia Rossiset Catlin Shao·
4025-15HARVHARVAttack errLora Cole·

Score shown after each rally, Harvard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).