FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

3:0

HomeCAA

Harvard def. UNCW 3–0

(25-21, 25-19, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HARV	25	25	25	3
UNCW	21	19	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UNCW above 50 · HARV below

Biggest swing: 1.4% to Harvard — set 1, HARV 23-20 UNCW. Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Sophia Wei). UNCW win probability 9% → 7%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HARV 88.6%11.4% UNCW

Harvard wins

3-0

42.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.8%

UNCW wins

3-0

1.6%

3-1

3.5%

3-2

6.3%

HARV break %: 48.9% vs this opp
UNCW break %: 39.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kayla NwabuezeKill+1.4%
Kill by Kayla Nwabueze (set by Sophia Wei)
Set 1 · HARV 23-20 UNCW · HARV 91% → 93%
02
Sofia RossiKill+1.4%
Kill by Sofia Rossi (set by Sophia Wei)
Set 1 · HARV 22-19 UNCW · HARV 91% → 92%
03
Sam VandaAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Sam Vanda
Set 1 · HARV 21-18 UNCW · HARV 91% → 92%
04
Gaby ZovkoKill+1.3%
Kill by Gaby Zovko (set by Sam Vanda)
Set 1 · HARV 18-16 UNCW · UNCW 8% → 9%
05
Masina OgbechieKill+1.2%
Kill by Masina Ogbechie (set by Catlin Shao)
Set 1 · HARV 20-17 UNCW · HARV 91% → 92%
06
UNCW serverAce+1.2%
UNCW ace on Yvette Easton
Set 2 · HARV 13-13 UNCW · UNCW 5% → 7%
07
Ali FarquharAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Ali Farquhar
Set 1 · HARV 3-3 UNCW · UNCW 10% → 12%
08
UNCW serverService error+1.2%
UNCW service error
Set 1 · HARV 19-16 UNCW · HARV 91% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Harvardaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Kayla NwabuezeMB	3	8	2	20	.300	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	9
13Ali FarquharOH	3	7	5	20	.100	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
23Sofia RossiOH	3	7	1	20	.300	1	0	3	7	1	0	0	0	7
18Riley ResmerMB	3	5	0	6	.833	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	2	7
21Ryleigh PattersonMB	3	5	0	7	.714	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
1Sophia WeiS	3	2	0	3	.667	15	0	1	12	0	0	0	0	2
4Masina OgbechieOH	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Catlin ShaoS	3	0	0	0	–	11	2	3	4	0	0	0	0	2
44Jordan ShelorL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
10Bridget EganOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	1
16Yvette EastonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	8	85	.365	36	5	9	39	5	2	8	6	75

UNCWhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Courtney GrahamMB	3	7	2	17	.294	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.5	8.5
16Elaina MurphyOH	3	3	3	11	.000	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	4
10Gaby ZovkoS	3	3	1	8	.250	21	0	1	5	0	0	0	3
8Meredith KeeferOPP	2	2	4	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	2.5
18Lauren Lewis	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Nadia WasilewskiOH	1	0	3	7	-.429	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
1Sam VandaOH	3	6	8	19	-.105	3	2	2	6	1	0	0	8
20Anna HarneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
5Morgan EsmieDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0
12Lilly SullivanMB	2	7	1	16	.375	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7
2Macon ButlerOH	2	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
19Lora ColeMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
17Addi VaughnS	1	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		32	25	100	.070	32	5	5	33	5	2	1	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 HARV · UNCW 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 HARVUNCW 4

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 3 HARVUNCW 3

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 8 HARVUNCW 3

Bars above the line = UNCW leads, below = Harvard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Harvard

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	25%2/8
2	100%8/8	0%0/8
3	73%8/11	68%17/25
4	54%7/13	53%8/15
5	86%6/7	33%3/9
6	63%5/8	38%3/8
All	74%42/57	45%33/73

UNCW

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	36%4/11
2	33%8/24	0%0/8
3	54%7/13	27%3/11
4	70%7/10	42%5/12
5	50%5/10	22%2/9
6	71%5/7	17%1/6
All	55%40/73	26%15/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	HARV-UNCW	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sophia Wei	set Kayla Nwabueze	+0.8
2	1-1	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+0.9
3	2-1	UNCW	HARV	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+0.9
4	3-1	HARV	HARV	Ace	HARV server	aced Meredith Keefer	+1.0
5	3-2	HARV	UNCW	Attack err	Ali Farquhar	blk Courtney Graham, Meredith Keefer	+0.8
6	3-3	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Ali Farquhar		+1.2
7	4-3	UNCW	HARV×3	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski	blk Kayla Nwabueze	+0.9
8	5-3	HARV	HARV×3	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze		+1.1
9	6-3	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Meredith Keefer		+0.9
10	6-4	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+0.7
11	6-5	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+1.1
12	7-5	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Catlin Shao	+0.9
13	7-6	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+0.9
14	8-6	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+0.9
15	9-6	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Elaina Murphy	blk Masina Ogbechie, Ryleigh Patterson	+1.0
16	9-7	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Sam Vanda	+0.8
17	10-7	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.8
18	11-7	HARV	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Sophia Wei	+0.9
19	11-8	HARV	UNCW	Attack err	Ali Farquhar		+0.6
20	12-8	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Sophia Wei	+0.7
21	12-9	HARV	UNCW	Attack err	Ali Farquhar		+0.7
22	13-9	UNCW	HARV×4	Attack err	Meredith Keefer	blk Ali Farquhar, Ryleigh Patterson	+0.7
23	14-9	HARV	HARV×4	Attack err	Meredith Keefer		+0.7
24	15-9	HARV	HARV×4	Attack err	Courtney Graham		+0.5
25	16-9	HARV	HARV×4	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+0.3
26	16-10	HARV	UNCW×3	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Anna Harney	+0.2
27	16-11	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Meredith Keefer	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
28	16-12	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+0.6
29	17-12	UNCW	HARV	Attack err	Courtney Graham		+0.6
30	18-12	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Meredith Keefer		+0.5
31	18-13	HARV	UNCW×4	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.3
32	18-14	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Kayla Nwabueze	+0.6
33	18-15	UNCW	UNCW×4	Ace	UNCW server	aced Sofia Rossi	+0.9
34	18-16	UNCW	UNCW×4	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Sam Vanda	+1.3
35	19-16	UNCW	HARV	Serve err	UNCW server		+1.2
36	19-17	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+1.1
37	20-17	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+1.2
38	20-18	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+1.1
39	21-18	UNCW	HARV	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+1.3
40	21-19	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+1.1
41	22-19	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Sophia Wei	+1.4
42	22-20	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+1.0
43	23-20	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+1.4
44	24-20	HARV	HARV	Bad set	Gaby Zovko		+1.0
45	24-21	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.3
46	25-21	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+0.5
Set 2
1	0-1	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.7
2	1-1	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Yvette Easton	+0.6
3	1-2	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+0.7
4	2-2	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.7
5	2-3	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.7
6	3-3	UNCW	HARV	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.7
7	3-4	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+0.8
8	4-4	UNCW	HARV	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.7
9	5-4	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Gaby Zovko	blk Riley Resmer	+0.8
10	5-5	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Sam Vanda	+0.7
11	6-5	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Yvette Easton	+0.7
12	7-5	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.8
13	7-6	HARV	UNCW×3	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.6
14	7-7	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.9
15	7-8	UNCW	UNCW×3	Ace	UNCW server	aced Bridget Egan	+1.1
16	8-8	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+0.8
17	9-8	HARV	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson		+1.0
18	9-9	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.8
19	10-9	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Yvette Easton	+0.8
20	10-10	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.9
21	11-10	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+0.8
22	11-11	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.9
23	12-11	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.8
24	13-11	HARV	HARV	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Catlin Shao	+1.0
25	13-12	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.8
26	13-13	UNCW	UNCW	Ace	UNCW server	aced Yvette Easton	+1.2
27	14-13	UNCW	HARV×3	Kill	Masina Ogbechie	set Yvette Easton	+0.9
28	15-13	HARV	HARV×3	Ace	HARV server	aced Morgan Esmie	+1.1
29	16-13	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Lauren Lewis		+0.9
30	16-14	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Morgan Esmie	+0.7
31	17-14	UNCW	HARV	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.7
32	17-15	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.7
33	18-15	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Catlin Shao	+0.8
34	18-16	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.7
35	19-16	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Ryleigh Patterson	+0.8
36	19-17	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.7
37	20-17	UNCW	HARV	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.9
38	21-17	HARV	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Sophia Wei	+0.8
39	21-18	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.4
40	22-18	UNCW	HARV×3	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Sophia Wei	+0.6
41	23-18	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.4
42	24-18	HARV	HARV×3	Ace	HARV server	aced Anna Harney	+0.1
43	24-19	HARV	UNCW	Attack err	Kayla Nwabueze		+0.0
44	25-19	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Bridget Egan	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Sophia Wei	+0.3
2	1-1	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Anna Harney	+0.3
3	2-1	UNCW	HARV×8	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.3
4	3-1	HARV	HARV×8	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.3
5	4-1	HARV	HARV×8	Kill	Kayla Nwabueze	set Jordan Shelor	+0.3
6	5-1	HARV	HARV×8	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Sophia Wei	+0.2
7	6-1	HARV	HARV×8	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.2
8	7-1	HARV	HARV×8	Attack err	Sam Vanda	blk Ali Farquhar, Riley Resmer	+0.2
9	8-1	HARV	HARV×8	Ace	HARV server	aced Sam Vanda	+0.1
10	9-1	HARV	HARV×8	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.1
11	9-2	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Addi Vaughn	+0.1
12	10-2	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sophia Wei	set Sofia Rossi	+0.1
13	10-3	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Addi Vaughn	+0.1
14	11-3	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Catlin Shao	+0.1
15	11-4	HARV	UNCW	Attack err	Sofia Rossi		+0.1
16	11-5	UNCW	UNCW	Bad set	Catlin Shao		+0.1
17	12-5	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.1
18	12-6	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Macon Butler	set Addi Vaughn	+0.1
19	12-7	UNCW	UNCW	Ace	UNCW server	aced Bridget Egan	+0.1
20	13-7	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Catlin Shao	+0.1
21	13-8	HARV	UNCW×3	Serve err	HARV server		+0.1
22	13-9	UNCW	UNCW×3	Kill	Lora Cole	set Addi Vaughn	+0.2
23	13-10	UNCW	UNCW×3	Attack err	Ali Farquhar		+0.3
24	14-10	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Ryleigh Patterson	set Sophia Wei	+0.2
25	14-11	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Addi Vaughn	+0.2
26	15-11	UNCW	HARV×5	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.3
27	16-11	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.2
28	17-11	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Sam Vanda		+0.2
29	18-11	HARV	HARV×5	Attack err	Sam Vanda	blk Ali Farquhar, Riley Resmer	+0.1
30	19-11	HARV	HARV×5	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Jordan Shelor	+0.1
31	19-12	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Courtney Graham	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
32	20-12	UNCW	HARV×3	Kill	Ali Farquhar	set Sophia Wei	+0.0
33	21-12	HARV	HARV×3	Attack err	Macon Butler		+0.0
34	22-12	HARV	HARV×3	Ace	HARV server	aced Morgan Esmie	+0.0
35	22-13	HARV	UNCW	Serve err	HARV server		+0.0
36	22-14	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Macon Butler	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
37	23-14	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Riley Resmer	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
38	23-15	HARV	UNCW	Kill	Macon Butler	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
39	24-15	UNCW	HARV	Kill	Sofia Rossi	set Catlin Shao	+0.0
40	25-15	HARV	HARV	Attack err	Lora Cole		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Harvard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.