FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayCAA

0:3

HomeACC

North Carolina def. UNCW 3–0

(25-13, 25-12, 25-10)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNCW	13	12	10	0
UNC	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UNC above 50 · UNCW below

Biggest swing: 0.0% to North Carolina — set 1, UNCW 0-2 UNC. Kill by Chelsea Thorpe (set by Zoe Behrendt). UNC win probability 100% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNCW 0.1%99.9% UNC

UNCW wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.1%

North Carolina wins

3-0

87.5%

3-1

11.4%

3-2

0.9%

UNCW break %: 30.8% vs this opp
UNC break %: 53.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Chelsea ThorpeKill+0.0%
Kill by Chelsea Thorpe (set by Zoe Behrendt)
Set 1 · UNCW 0-2 UNC · UNC 100% → 100%
02
Elaina MurphyKill+0.0%
Kill by Elaina Murphy (set by Courtney Graham)
Set 2 · UNCW 1-0 UNC · UNCW 0% → 0%
03
Chelsea ThorpeKill+0.0%
Kill by Chelsea Thorpe (set by Zoe Behrendt)
Set 1 · UNCW 0-1 UNC · UNC 100% → 100%
04
Safi HamptonKill+0.0%
Kill by Safi Hampton (set by Emily Bobbitt)
Set 2 · UNCW 1-2 UNC · UNC 100% → 100%
05
UNCW serverAce+0.0%
UNCW ace on Safi Hampton
Set 2 · UNCW 3-4 UNC · UNCW 0% → 0%
06
Chelsea ThorpeKill+0.0%
Kill by Chelsea Thorpe (set by Carly Markham)
Set 1 · UNCW 0-3 UNC · UNC 100% → 100%
07
Bridget MaloneKill+0.0%
Kill by Bridget Malone (set by Emily Bobbitt)
Set 2 · UNCW 1-1 UNC · UNC 100% → 100%
08
Lilly SullivanKill+0.0%
Kill by Lilly Sullivan (set by Gaby Zovko)
Set 1 · UNCW 1-3 UNC · UNCW 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNCWaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Elaina MurphyOH	3	5	2	17	.176	2	0	0	5	1	1	0.5	5.5
7Nadia WasilewskiOH	3	5	3	17	.118	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
12Lilly SullivanMB	3	4	9	26	-.192	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Lauren Lewis	3	3	4	14	-.071	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	3.5
10Gaby ZovkoS	3	1	3	11	-.182	12	1	0	3	0	0	0	2
14Courtney GrahamMB	2	0	1	4	-.250	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
1Sam VandaOH	3	3	1	6	.333	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	3
5Morgan EsmieDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
20Anna HarneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
19Lora ColeMB	2	1	1	6	.000	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
17Addi VaughnS	1	1	0	1	1.000	5	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		23	24	103	-.010	22	1	2	28	3	6	3	35

North Carolinahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Bridget MaloneOH	2	9	1	17	.471	0	1	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
77Chelsea ThorpeOPP	2	9	1	10	.800	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	10
22Safi HamptonOH	2	7	0	13	.538	1	0	0	4	1	0	3	1.5	8.5
3Lauren SchutterMB	2	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
21Jackie TaylorMB	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
1Zoe BehrendtS	2	0	0	0	–	12	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
6Julia BohlingerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	0	6	0	0	0	0	2
33Hailey PearceOH	2	5	0	9	.556	1	0	2	5	0	0	2	1	6
24Addison WestOH	2	4	0	6	.667	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
23Laynie SmithOPP	2	3	1	8	.250	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
0Mackenzie BoyerMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3
4Erin CurtisOH	2	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Emily BobbittS	2	0	0	1	.000	16	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
18Carly MarkhamL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
7Sadie SwiftMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Meghan CliffordMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	3
8Sienna CozzaS	1	1	0	1	1.000	8	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		44	5	83	.470	42	3	6	44	1	1	22	12	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UNCW · UNC 9

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 4 UNCWUNC 7

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 2 UNCWUNC 9

Set 3

10-25

Longest run 2 UNCWUNC 8

Bars above the line = North Carolina leads, below = UNCW leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNCW

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%6/19	17%1/6
2	38%6/16	0%0/6
3	25%6/24	45%5/11
4	80%4/5	14%1/7
5	75%3/4	0%0/4
6	60%3/5	0%0/3
All	38%28/73	19%7/37

North Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	43%3/7
2	75%6/8	71%15/21
3	67%6/9	75%18/24
4	86%6/7	54%7/13
5	100%3/3	25%1/4
6	100%3/3	25%1/4
All	81%30/37	62%45/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

110 rallies

Rally log

#	UNCW-UNC	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UNCW	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
2	0-2	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
3	0-3	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Carly Markham	+0.0
4	1-3	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
5	1-4	UNCW	UNC×7	Attack err	Courtney Graham		+0.0
6	1-5	UNC	UNC×7	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.0
7	1-6	UNC	UNC×7	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski	blk Lauren Schutter, Bridget Malone	+0.0
8	1-7	UNC	UNC×7	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
9	1-8	UNC	UNC×7	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.0
10	1-9	UNC	UNC×7	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
11	1-10	UNC	UNC×7	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
12	2-10	UNC	UNCW×4	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
13	3-10	UNCW	UNCW×4	Attack err	Lauren Schutter	blk Courtney Graham	+0.0
14	4-10	UNCW	UNCW×4	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe	blk Courtney Graham, Lilly Sullivan	+0.0
15	5-10	UNCW	UNCW×4	Kill	Addi Vaughn	set Elaina Murphy	+0.0
16	5-11	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
17	5-12	UNC	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone		+0.0
18	6-12	UNC	UNCW	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
19	6-13	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
20	7-13	UNC	UNCW	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
21	7-14	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
22	7-15	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
23	8-15	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Addi Vaughn	+0.0
24	8-16	UNCW	UNC×3	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
25	8-17	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
26	8-18	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Elaina Murphy		+0.0
27	9-18	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Addi Vaughn	+0.0
28	10-18	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Addi Vaughn	+0.0
29	10-19	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
30	10-20	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan	blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe	+0.0
31	11-20	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Addi Vaughn	+0.0
32	11-21	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
33	11-22	UNC	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
34	12-22	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Morgan Esmie	+0.0
35	12-23	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
36	12-24	UNC	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
37	13-24	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Lilly Sullivan	set Addi Vaughn	+0.0
38	13-25	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Courtney Graham	+0.0
2	1-1	UNCW	UNC×4	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
3	1-2	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
4	1-3	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
5	1-4	UNC	UNC×4	Ace	UNC server	aced Sam Vanda	+0.0
6	2-4	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
7	3-4	UNCW	UNCW	Ace	UNCW server	aced Safi Hampton	+0.0
8	3-5	UNCW	UNC×4	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
9	3-6	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
10	3-7	UNC	UNC×4	Attack err	Sam Vanda	blk Jackie Taylor, Safi Hampton	+0.0
11	3-8	UNC	UNC×4	Bad set	Gaby Zovko		+0.0
12	4-8	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
13	4-9	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
14	5-9	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
15	5-10	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
16	6-10	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
17	6-11	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
18	7-11	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Gaby Zovko	set Chelsea Thorpe	+0.0
19	7-12	UNCW	UNC	Attack err	Lauren Lewis	blk Chelsea Thorpe, Lauren Schutter	+0.0
20	7-13	UNC	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Safi Hampton	+0.0
21	8-13	UNC	UNCW	Attack err	Bridget Malone		+0.0
22	8-14	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
23	9-14	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
24	10-14	UNCW	UNCW	Attack err	Laynie Smith	blk Elaina Murphy, Lauren Lewis	+0.0
25	10-15	UNCW	UNC×9	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
26	10-16	UNC	UNC×9	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Laynie Smith	+0.0
27	10-17	UNC	UNC×9	Attack err	Lauren Lewis	blk Jackie Taylor, Safi Hampton	+0.0
28	10-18	UNC	UNC×9	Ace	UNC server	aced Lauren Lewis	+0.0
29	10-19	UNC	UNC×9	Bad set	Gaby Zovko		+0.0
30	10-20	UNC	UNC×9	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski		+0.0
31	10-21	UNC	UNC×9	Attack err	Elaina Murphy	blk Safi Hampton, Mackenzie Boyer	+0.0
32	10-22	UNC	UNC×9	Ace	UNC server	aced Elaina Murphy	+0.0
33	10-23	UNC	UNC×9	Kill	Mackenzie Boyer	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
34	11-23	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Lauren Lewis	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
35	11-24	UNCW	UNC	Attack err	Lauren Lewis	blk Laynie Smith, Mackenzie Boyer	+0.0
36	12-24	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
37	12-25	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Hailey Pearce	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	UNCW	UNC×8	Kill	Addison West	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
2	0-2	UNC	UNC×8	Kill	Hailey Pearce	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
3	0-3	UNC	UNC×8	Attack err	Nadia Wasilewski	blk Erin Curtis, Meghan Clifford	+0.0
4	0-4	UNC	UNC×8	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.0
5	0-5	UNC	UNC×8	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.0
6	0-6	UNC	UNC×8	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.0
7	0-7	UNC	UNC×8	Kill	Hailey Pearce	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
8	0-8	UNC	UNC×8	Attack err	Lora Cole	blk Hailey Pearce, Meghan Clifford	+0.0
9	1-8	UNC	UNCW	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
10	1-9	UNCW	UNC	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
11	2-9	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Nadia Wasilewski	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
12	2-10	UNCW	UNC×3	Attack err	Gaby Zovko		+0.0
13	2-11	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan		+0.0
14	2-12	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Gaby Zovko		+0.0
15	3-12	UNC	UNCW	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
16	3-13	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Sienna Cozza	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.0
17	4-13	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Sam Vanda	+0.0
18	4-14	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.0
19	5-14	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
20	5-15	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Meghan Clifford	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
21	6-15	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Sam Vanda	set Elaina Murphy	+0.0
22	6-16	UNCW	UNC×3	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan	blk Addison West, Meghan Clifford	+0.0
23	6-17	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Hailey Pearce	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
24	6-18	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Lilly Sullivan	blk Hailey Pearce, Meghan Clifford	+0.0
25	7-18	UNC	UNCW	Kill	Lora Cole	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
26	7-19	UNCW	UNC	Serve err	UNCW server		+0.0
27	8-19	UNC	UNCW	Attack err	Mackenzie Boyer		+0.0
28	8-20	UNCW	UNC×4	Kill	Hailey Pearce	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
29	8-21	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Addison West	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
30	8-22	UNC	UNC×4	Attack err	Lauren Lewis		+0.0
31	8-23	UNC	UNC×4	Attack err	Gaby Zovko	blk Mackenzie Boyer	+0.0
32	9-23	UNC	UNCW	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
33	10-23	UNCW	UNCW	Kill	Elaina Murphy	set Gaby Zovko	+0.0
34	10-24	UNCW	UNC	Kill	Erin Curtis	set Sienna Cozza	+0.0
35	10-25	UNC	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Hailey Pearce	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UNCW first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.